I re-analyzed the rail bypass (see pic), so full costing and deal structure can occur. Here's my costed deal proposal.
Assumptions:
-CP Rail Yard Current Value: ~$500m
-New CP Rail Yard Construction: ~$500m (Net 0, land arbitrage)
-New Rail Construction Cost: $10m/km per dual trackway (1 for each direction, 2 total).
-Rail Bridge over Red River: $200m (4 trackways: 2 CP, 2 CN)
-Hwy Bridge over Rail: $50m per 2-lane bridge
Construction Values:
-Total CP Rail: 65km (2 trackways, 1 each direction)
-Total CN Rail: 50km (2 trackways, 1 each direction)
-Total 2-lane Hwy over Rail bridges: 12
COST TO EACH STAKEHOLDER:
CP:
-$650m for bypass trackway - 65km of dual-trackway @ $10m/km
-$100m for Red River Bridge
-$0m for new yard, due to land arbitrage. Current yard is on higher priced land than future rural yard, absorbing virtually all cost. Old rail yards purchased by developers NOT City Of Winnipeg. Developers build high density and profit.
-PROCEEDS $750m from CoW for 75km of inner city rail lines.
CP TOTAL COST: $0
CN:
-$500m for bypass trackway - 50km of dual trackway @ $10m/km
-$100m for Red River Bridge.
-$0m for yards. CN yards do NOT need to move.
-PROCEEDS $300m from CoW for 30km of inner city rail lines.
CN TOTAL COST: $350m
Province of MB:
-$600m for Hwy-Over-Rail overpasses - 12 bridges @ $50m/2 lanes. Total 24 lanes.
-SAVINGS of $450m by closing the 3 south rail crossing across Perimeter (Oak Bluff, La Salle, St Annes). Calculated as 18 lanes of bridging @ $50m/2 lanes. Based on the ultimate 6-lane Perimeter plan.
-$50m to Richardson Elevator to relocate (Stonewall Rail Line)
-SAVINGS $150m by closing Stonewall Rail Line crossing @ Perimeter.
MB GOV TOTAL COST: $50m
City of Winnipeg:
-$300m to CN to acquire 30km of city track @ $10m/km
-$750m to CP to acquire 75km of city track @ $10m/km
-$500m for LRT stations, minor route adaptation, etc.
WINNIPEG OUT OF POCKET COST: $1.5B
Winnipeg savings vs building a $10B LRT from scratch: $8.5B
Who Wins/Loses:
Winners:
-Gov MB, and commuting drivers.
-CP Rail, all relocation costs are covered by existing inside city assets. If not excess. CP gets a new yard and more room.
-City of Winnipeg. CoW spends $1.5B for a $10B LRT system and it's already 90% pre-built. Minimal delays, cost over-runs and uncertainties.
Losers:
-CN Rail. Relocation proceeds do not entirely cover moving their rail line. A shortage of $350-400m arises.
How can their deal be sweetened? A top-up by CoW, since they're forcing the move? The CoW's massive LRT savings still allow for this. However we're now pushing $2B out of pocket for CoW. Other ideas?
