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-   -   Sunbelt battle for #2? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=240851)

LA21st Nov 15, 2019 8:52 PM

Again, Texas didn't even gain more than 1 percent job growth than California in 9 years. Reading some of these posts (and other social media) you would think there would be some stark difference because of the "business climate".

But there's not. So....:shrug:

Dariusb Nov 16, 2019 1:38 AM

This topic has gone way off course like a plane bound for Jamaica but ends up landing in Iceland, lmao!

JManc Nov 16, 2019 3:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Obadno (Post 8748976)
You can focus on west Virginia if you want to be an ostrich but I would think the NYC- Upstate NY example of the constantly hemorrhaging state of Illinois- Chicago are probably going to be a good indication of whats going to happen to California in coming decades.

That would be a no. New York state and Illinois have one dominant city that is healthy with the rest of the state stagnating or in decline where as California has numerous cities doing rather well. There's no comparison. Even cities like Bakersfield in the CV seem to be better off than Upstate NY and IL outside of Chicago.

Shawn Nov 16, 2019 4:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonman (Post 8749435)
Did I just witness a liberal admit that poor people are a drain on the state?

Did I also see a liberal make a racist statement about "brownies"?

I guess it's cool since it was written by a liberal, nobody here has a problem with it.

There is no face-palm emoji, unfortunately.

Sir, you have lost the plot.

JManc Nov 16, 2019 4:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shawn (Post 8750206)
There is no face-palm emoji, unfortunately.

:facepalm:

Shawn Nov 16, 2019 6:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 8750213)
:facepalm:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shawn (Post 8750206)
There is no face-palm emoji, unfortunately.

Sir, you have lost the plot.

:facepalm: to myself

Sun Belt Nov 16, 2019 1:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shawn (Post 8749042)
Lol I was thinking the exact same thing. Get rid of tax-draining poor people (and get rid of some brownies in the process, amiright?) and replace them with high net worth contributors and job creators. :cheers:

Hey Texas, have fun figuring out how to pay for all those additional social services the Californians you’re so proud of taking will need. Cause I’m skeptical you’re getting the type Californians you imagine you’re getting.

Wait.

You're saying that having a net domestic loss, along with a rapidly aging population is a good thing? That 15k-30k figure most likely is representing young people, just starting off - entering the workforce - they are leaving the state. Those young people were yesterday's creators/innovators and they're leaving. That's a good thing?

3 earners [roomies] making 30k/year - $14.42/hour [that's less than minimum wage in most parts of California these days and significantly lower than Bank of America's Minimum wage of $20/hour] is a household income of 90k.

Who exactly is going to pay for all those social services in California when there are 9 million people over the age of 66?

-----


Side note: I might be confusing you with another person that lives in Asia that was considering a move back to the states, but you, or whomever it was ruled out California because of the extreme high cost of living, despite their wife loving it so much.

Crawford Nov 16, 2019 3:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt (Post 8750302)
Wait.

You're saying that having a net domestic loss, along with a rapidly aging population is a good thing?

Yes, absolutely. That means CA is getting richer, more innovative and has lower overall tax burden.

The biggest tax expense is public education, by far, and children don't work or pay taxes, so a state that is growing by importing professionals but losing school-age children is much better off economically than one that is growing through childbirth.

lio45 Nov 16, 2019 7:01 PM

Agree with Crawford there.

JAYNYC Nov 16, 2019 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LA21st (Post 8749801)
Again, Texas didn't even gain more than 1 percent job growth than California in 9 years. Reading some of these posts (and other social media) you would think there would be some stark difference because of the "business climate".

But there's not. So....:shrug:


Your overt malevolence towards Texas is so obviously linked to its massive gains on California across every meaningful category it's beyond laughable.

We get it - you despise any state stealing the Golden State's once glorified shine and appeal, but the reality is Texas is booming (and has been for some time now) for myriad reasons whether you choose to accept it or continue to live in denial.

Sun Belt Nov 16, 2019 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45 (Post 8750515)
Agree with Crawford there.

Steve Jobs would disagree with you and Crawford.

Today's Steve Jobs are relocating out of the state.

Aging population with a shrinking younger population [future workers, innovators] is a population pyramid nightmare -- It doesn't work -- just look to Japan, population pyramid then and now.
1950:
https://images.populationpyramid.net...3Fshare%3Dtrue

What happened 35 years later in Japan? All those young people grew up, got jobs and dominated the developed world in the mid 1980s. Now look at Japan, all those young people in 1950 have retired and not they're not being replaced by an even larger set of young people. Result: Japan has stagnated and declined, same story for China this century.

E] From what JManc has posted he was recently entertaining the idea of relocating to Calif. but ultimately decided not to for a variety of reasons, CoL being one.

JManc? I don't want to put words in The Voice of Reason's Mouth, is this correct?

craigs Nov 17, 2019 12:50 AM

What does Japan's age pyramid circa 1950 have to do with this amazing "City Discussion" anyway?

Shawn Nov 17, 2019 12:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt (Post 8750302)
Wait.

You're saying that having a net domestic loss, along with a rapidly aging population is a good thing? That 15k-30k figure most likely is representing young people, just starting off - entering the workforce - they are leaving the state. Those young people were yesterday's creators/innovators and they're leaving. That's a good thing?

3 earners [roomies] making 30k/year - $14.42/hour [that's less than minimum wage in most parts of California these days and significantly lower than Bank of America's Minimum wage of $20/hour] is a household income of 90k.

Who exactly is going to pay for all those social services in California when there are 9 million people over the age of 66?

-----


Side note: I might be confusing you with another person that lives in Asia that was considering a move back to the states, but you, or whomever it was ruled out California because of the extreme high cost of living, despite their wife loving it so much.

Yup, that’s me!

Just to clear things up, my post was indeed a tongue and cheek agreement with badrunner’s wet dream comment. The chart he posted clearly shows a sizable majority of Californians moving to Texas are low income individuals.

Point is, it seems to me there’s some schadenfreude-esque gloating around CA’s domestic “exodus” to other states. Particularly among the right leaning GOP political class, who present a bunch of talking-point reasons for the population loss. But the end results for CA we are watching actually happen are something these very right-leaners would love to see in their own areas. The end results, mind you, not the process: fewer poor minorities, more rich people. And to add to that irony, the poor people leaving CA are headed to places like Texas, which are governed by GOP administrations, and where a lot of the smug schadenfreude over this whole issue comes from in the first place. It’s somehow fitting.

Sun Belt Nov 17, 2019 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8750751)
What does Japan's age pyramid circa 1950 have to do with this amazing "City Discussion" anyway?

In a discussion about demographics and demographical changes:

I'd like to spell it out for you, but I was under the assumption that most people could do it for themselves?

Feel free to PM me -- I'd be happy to explain.

craigs Nov 17, 2019 1:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt (Post 8750758)
In a discussion about demographics and demographical changes:

I'd like to spell it out for you, but I was under the assumption that most people could do it for themselves?

Feel free to PM me -- I'd be happy to explain.

Is it you think 1950 Japan is so analogous to 2019 California that it can literally predict our future? How magical!

Meanwhile in reality, still-growing California faces the aging of the Baby Boomers like everyone else in the Western world, but there is zero support for the assertion this state must become an outlier like Japan has been for decades.

In fact, this San Jose Mercury News article from earlier this year points out that Californians, in comparison to other parts of the country, are "still are pretty young" and the median age in 2017 of 36 "makes California one of the 10 youngest states in the country. By comparison, Florida’s median age is 42."

If you were sincerely concerned about states aging in coming decades like Japan has been aging in the last few decades, you would focus on 40 other, older states first--but we won't see you posting your deep, principled 'concern' for Florida becoming the next crazy outlier for aging, will we? Nope, because there's no real concern, no principle, and no orchestrated Trumpian campaign to paint Florida in a bad light.

homebucket Nov 17, 2019 1:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAYNYC (Post 8750670)
Your overt malevolence towards Texas is so obviously linked to its massive gains on California across every meaningful category it's beyond laughable.

We get it - you despise any state stealing the Golden State's once glorified shine and appeal, but the reality is Texas is booming (and has been for some time now) for myriad reasons whether you choose to accept it or continue to live in denial.

Not sure riding the coattails of California's success is worthy of patting yourself on the back so vigorously. Much of Texas's growth is the direct result of over saturation of companies that were born and bred in California. California is still the innovation capital of the world, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future, period. A few glorified back offices in Texas doesn't change that.


We get it - you love Texas. But let's see a Texas startup reach even a tenth of the success as Facebook, Google, Apple before you smugly reach for your back again.

:tup:

...

Quote:

San Francisco Has Second-Highest Tech Jobs Growth

Lisa Brown
GlobeSt.com
November 13, 2019

SAN FRANCISCO—A new CBRE report ranks San Francisco the fastest-growing tech market with overall rent growth of 17.5% between second quarters 2017 and 2019.
...
San Francisco also had the second highest high-tech employment growth rate (behind only Vancouver) with 24.7% during 2017 and 2018, accounting for 84.7% of all new office jobs. Since the current expansion started in 2010, the tech industry in San Francisco has more than quadrupled in size to 100,644 tech jobs as of year-end 2018. This growth has fueled the absorption of 15 million square feet of office space, which reduced the vacancy rate to 3.6% and caused rents to spike by 180% to $86 per square foot annually, the highest in North America.

Access to the largest and most innovative tech talent labor pool in North America has kept real estate demand high in San Francisco,” said Darin Bosch, senior managing director at CBRE. “Tech companies are thriving here even with the competitive labor and real estate markets driving operational costs higher. They see San Francisco as a natural lab and testing ground for new technologies.”
Quote:

California, SF unemployment rates fall to record lows
Roland Li
sfchronicle.com
Oct.18, 2019

The unemployment rate in both California and San Francisco fell to a record low in September, the state announced Friday.

The state added 21,300 jobs in September and had an unemployment rate of 4%, down from 4.1% in September 2018. California — the fifth-largest economy in the world if it were a country — now is in the midst of its longest record jobs expansion, 115 months, surpassing the economic boom of the 1960s, according to the Employment Development Department.

San Francisco’s unemployment rate fell last month to a minuscule 1.8% from 2.1% from the prior September, the lowest number the city has ever recorded.

Despite fears of a recession amid an ongoing U.S.-China trade war and the stumbles of high-profile tech companies like Uber, there are no major signs that the local economy is cooling, said Christopher Thornberg, founder of Beacon Economics in Los Angeles.

“Tales of this expansion’s demise are highly exaggerated. We don’t see any end to it,” Thornberg said.

Sun Belt Nov 17, 2019 1:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8750771)
Is it you think 1950 Japan is so analogous to 2019 California that it can literally predict our future? How magical!

Well, no. Remember, these are the Good Times, we're at an all-time high right now! :cool: Remember how it was 10 years ago, when California was much younger than it is today? How good were those times? Not too great.

This isn't rocket science, this is math. An increase of the non-working population [retirees] that is reliant on an ever increasing younger population, that is moving away is dependent on those young people to pay for their services, yet that ever increasing younger population is being forced out of the state. This is not a recipe for success and is of great concern.

It's the complete opposite of California's history. This trend, over years will break California, as has been witnessed in other states -- California is not immune.

LA21st Nov 17, 2019 1:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAYNYC (Post 8750670)
Your overt malevolence towards Texas is so obviously linked to its massive gains on California across every meaningful category it's beyond laughable.

We get it - you despise any state stealing the Golden State's once glorified shine and appeal, but the reality is Texas is booming (and has been for some time now) for myriad reasons whether you choose to accept it or continue to live in denial.

Nope,, I get annoyed about the California hate and bias from other sun belt states. It's very clear to the California posters.
Usually, it's Texas cause their state pride gets hurt .

But good on Texas for poaching other states talent. They must be struggling to build anything on their own.

Sun Belt Nov 17, 2019 2:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LA21st (Post 8750781)
Nope,, I get annoyed about the California hate and bias from other sun belt states.
Usually, it's Texas cause their state pride gets hurt.
Oh well.

As pointed out by several California posters, that agenda is garbage.

But good on Texas for poaching other states talent. They must be struggling to build anything on their own.

Not entirely. I'm a Californian and I'm concerned about the direction of the state.

I want an environment where Californians don't leave the state for others to merely survive and flee California. Yeah, that equals to even higher growth projections -- bring it on -- like the Good Ol' Golden State days. Bring it. There are 2 states that can actually do this in the union and those are -- CA and TX.

craigs Nov 17, 2019 2:35 AM

Nobody should ever move out of California, because it might lower the state's population growth--and that must never happen, because population growth is always objectively good. Anything that lessens population growth is always objectively bad, a problem to be fixed until nobody ever moves out of California again. For the good of all, nobody gets out alive!


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