soooo nice! just what I needed.

Agree. :cheers:

is that brittney spears?

He's talking about over saturating the ultra luxury market.

I think it's Enya.


I finally see his point. Please take my former comments with a grain of salt and excuse any misdirection I may have.

Exactly. Now enough with the soothsaying.

This tower, although a box (again :( ) is still the most exciting proposal in NYC IMO. I can't wait to see this behemoth stretching the skyline north. To me it's far more exciting than that concrete box on Park. The modernity of all this glass rising to such heights will surely help the NY skyline look more 21st century and the sun reflecting off this thing will be stunning. So, sorry to Park, vandie, etc, but this tower is the King of the current boom.

The 1,775 foot mark gentlemens agreement is absurd
 

Im sure if some rich Saudi oil prince or some Asian tycoon said i'll pay 150 million 4 the top floor pent house but ONLY if it's the tallest building in NYC they will 4 get about that 1,775 foot limit. Placing limits on a building is honoring nobody. Imagine having no ships longer then the Lusitania? Is that honoring the dead? I don't think so.

I wouldn't worry too much. Of course it's pathetic and totally ridiculous to mark an "official" height limit in the city. I think it's just that 1WTC needs some alone time at the top. Give it a year or so, and nobody, not even the developers, will give a crap about the 1,776ft figure. Also, what's wrong with developing a tower with a 1,700ft + roof height? :P

It's probably a well intentioned idea, but not thought out. For one thing, as I said earlier, if a developer wants to and can build taller, he will. But more importantly, trying to honor the Freedom Tower by not topping that 1,776 ft mark misses the main reason for that building being built. It was not simply to honor the year 1776, but to restore that same spirit that built the original complex. To build high, and higher even. Originally, there were those who thought New York would and should never build tall again. That fear mongering gave way to the "voice" of New Yorkers who demanded something tall be built to restore the skyline. That the city would not bow down to the threat of terrorism, which will always be with us anyway. And that's what we got. Trying to stunt the skyline, while maybe well intentioned, flies in the face of that. You honor the World Trade Center by building with that same spirit. Stopping the spire just a foot short is much too obvious.

Don't worry. With developers showing reverence to the 1776 foot limit in Manhattan, it looks like the next best hope to exceed it will be for the 95-storey Liberty Rising development in Jersey City!

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/10/ny...city.html?_r=0
:D :P :haha:

Building tall costs quite a bit and honestly, I don't see Jersey commanding those prices.

Does that guy mean roof height or the spire?

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7527/...da3ca40d_h.jpg
Future NYC Skyline 2018 by cityrealty_nyc, on Flickr

^^^ this :multibow:

Absolutely stunning! I'm at a loss of words! After all of these projects are complete the entire island is sure to become the eighth wonder of the man-made world!

Another pipe dream that will never happen.




Empire State, where are you?

I thought we decided no more soothsaying.

need more urbanity

You forgot to add the Worldwide tower on 60th/3rd ave

also, wheres the wrecking ball smile at ssp?

The thing is, we have no idea how tall the 60th street tower will rise. I think it will be supertall, as there are no height limits, tons of air rights, amazing potential park views, and very high neighborhood condo values.

It's actually situated closer to Lexington than 3rd, though. I think Worldwide Group is trying to buy the retail building on the corner of Lex/60th.

^^ true they want that lot on the corner. The article said a similar type of building as the 57th street one, so my guess? 800'

Yeah, but "similar type of building" has nothing to do with "similar heights".

Their 57th Street tower was subject to height limits. This site has no height limits. There would be no reason to think that they would arbitrarily apply the same height to this tower as to another, unrelated tower with different zoning rules.

That's not soothsaying my friend, that's sound fact. It won't happen (for obvious reasons). Let's keep our heads out of our asses, and grounded in reality.



http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article...-luxury-market

Developer Gary Barnett predicts dip in luxury market
Extell Development's Gary Barnett expects a growing number of super-costly residential properties to weigh heavily on the market.
'If this keeps up, we will get an oversupply,' he said.

BY JOE ANUTA
OCTOBER 30, 2014




Here's a quick read on the

Stampede of the Super-Talls
https://www.bisnow.com/archives/news...e-super-talls/

http://e13c7623ea07ffe9c5c6-e19f06f7...007-medium.png




http://www.usglassmag.com/2014/11/mu...-family-homes/


Big Apple, Bigger Buildings

November 7, 2014
by Nick St. Denis



Just assume by "NYC" they mean Manhattan.

cityrealty_nyc

https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5613/...1c890652_o.jpg



https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7540/...d451fa16_o.jpg

Upp, told people this was going to happen. However it appears many of the projects going up right now or preparing to go up are safe for the moment.
It seems like some of the momentum in the luxury residential market has moved to the luxury office market in the last few months. Kind of a strange twist.

Great renders by the way, One Vanderbilt is going to be a beast! :)

^ Of course Barnett is going to say that. Wouldn't want some competition he? ;) Other developers want a slice of the cake too. :yes:

Other than the fact that's its true? People are going to get tired of buying $50 million penthouses very fast.

Where are all these super wealthy people? Ive always wondered how there are that many millionaires or billionaires that could afford these condos all over the city, let alone world. Surely theres not that many of them unless its the same people buying these condos and such in a lot of these supertalls.

Also, even with a dip in the market these guys will profit. Right now they are making a killing. I believe Barnett is really saying, simple supply vs demand is at work. Someone saw a market for these and the race was on. The first in line win (One57 and 432 Park), the others will probably have a bit more modest returns as the supply begins to match the demand.

There are loads of them.

Also, the next wave, which consists of Nordstrom, 220 CPS, Verre, 520 Park, and Steinway will total no more than 1,000 units. That's not a lot.

Many of the buyers are from around the world, some are from New York City. But countries like China, Russia, Brazil, Europe, ect.

The problem is people aren't going to buy super high end properties forever, investments change. As in what is worth investing in, especially if there is a real estate market downturn.

Manhattan Condos Are The New Swiss Bank Accounts For The World's Super-Rich

http://www.businessinsider.com/nyc-r...-buyers-2014-6

Financial instability in China, Russia, and Brazil
Will only fuel demand.

it's common sense that it could happen, eventually. The current "slowdown", if you could call it that, has to do with more choice than anything else.

This tower won't even come on the market until maybe next year, or the year after even. As for who's buying the apartments, keep in mind that not all of the units are in the $90 million dollar range, though those are the numbers that get the towers labeled "billionaire buildings".

A recent quote from Vornado concerning the supply of high end units, and the current market...


http://www.thestreet.com/story/12940...ranscript.html

Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Earnings Report: Q3 2014 Conference Call

11/04/14

It's not common sense, its economics. The capitalist system is particularly vulnerable to unexpected sharp downturns in pretty much any kind of investment, commodity, or asset. Real estate is not immune.

The good thing is that the global economy is weak right now so that will prolong this boom maybe longer than expected, as international investors will see such investments as a good deal. Just as you think things are going down they might go right back up again. I expect Nordstrom Tower will be fine. But there should be concern about a possible glut in the number of sky-high luxury units that ordinarily would only have a limited market. There's a phrase called irrational exuberance.

There are very few $50 million apartments for sale in NYC, and your opinion is just that, don't mistake it for "truth".

The ranks of the superrich are rapidly growing, and the supply of superluxury apartments in NYC (and London, for that matter) is not that big. It would be pretty silly to argue that the superrich will stop investing in real estate.

Once the market is flooded with expensive penthouses the demand for them will go down. It's not an opinion, its supply and demand.

There have never been more wealthy people on earth as right now, and the stock market is currently at record highs.

If that's "weak", I would be interesting in seeing your definition of "strong".

No, it's your personal opinion, and contrary to the opinions of people who actually own and develop property.

There is no "flooding" of expensive apartments; there are fewer units being created right now than at most points in NYC history.

If you're arguing "at some point prices will go down", ok, but I think everyone on SSP is aware of the basic rules of economics. But there isn't much product being created relative to historical norms, and the supply of potential buyers is much bigger than at any point in history. Yes, prices will go down one day, and then prices will go up again. We know that already, thanks.

Dude, what did Barnett just say? "Oversupply..." Those are his words not mine.

Yes, and what's your point? You're referring to the busiest developer in NYC, building the most units. You're using Gary Barnett to prove that developers believe that the supply of superluxury buyers is drying up? LOL. Then why is he spending billions on supertalls throughout Manhattan?

One building has been completed on 57th Street. 90% of the units in that one building are not for global billionaires. The supply of superluxury units is almost nothing at this point.

Yet you, the only person on earth who still thinks Chicago Spire is magically being built, who is reliably always on the wrong side of a SSP discussion, now wishes we all take your word for it, and believe that you can somehow magically predict the future of global economics and real estate? LOL. No, we won't take your word for it.

Also, keep in mind that some of these units are bought by more than one owner. Sometimes, several, as a source of investment. This occurred for some One57 Units.

And by corporations interested in somewhere to bring their own wealthy clients.

Definitely not all individuals.

It's common sense, unless you think there is an unlimited supply of people who will buy these apartments at these prices, downturn or not. Eventually there will be a saturation point. That's called common sense, unless you live in a bubble somewhere.




Hate to do it, but you get the big, fat DUH award.

These developers aren't stupid, they know when to bring these developments to the market. There will be time for the market to "absorb" some of this new product.

It should be mentioned that private Chinese wealth is pouring out of the country and into foreign markets, with America being the number 1 destination.

Thanks, I accept the award. But I still think economics plays a bigger role than common sense here. Barnett and his team have work to do.

(Geez, seems like some people in this thread are getting a little testy.)

Economics of penthouses aside, what tinges me a bit is that the uber-rich don't actually *live* in these buildings often enough. I won't lie, it's nice to have rich people in a city, they support the arts, buisness, shopping, etc. It's unfortunate these buildings often times don't add much in the way of actual new residents and thus activity.

right, over the 3-4 years it will take to build these projects, that amounts to an average of roughly one sale a day.

Well, you have 520 West 41st Street that will have 1400 apartments, some percentage of which will be 'affordable housing'. Just from the economics, you aren't going to get anything other than an ordinary tower if your target audience is the "masses" and any tower you get won't be in a choice location. The best bet for residential density are the underutilized areas and there are some less dense areas of Manhattan that will never be zoned for the type of towers that support the density you speak of.

Sorry. I'll take the blame for some of that.

I personally am disappointed that this building was listed in U/C not long ago. Now it's listed in proposed. I think some of our frustrations may come from that fact.

Nobody's gettin "testy". Some people just have little patience for those who are being "willfully" dense.

Do you really believe that the city can support 1 Million luxury condo units dropped on the market? Of course not, it's common sense. Now drop that number down, and keep dropping it. It's common sense that there is a limited number of units that the city can absorb at any one time. No one should have to tell you that.

Now, in activity more related to this project, I walked along 58th Street yesterday, and both 220 CPS and this site are very busy, while excavation is still going on here, there is also cement in play. It's a forgone conclusion that this will be under "construction" soon. It will be followed by both 111 W. 57th and the Tower Verre, projects also under site prep, with construction imminent.