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The consensus is indeed in the range 2-2.5% in the euro area and this cannot be referred to as a "boom". It is just close to the long-term average growth rate.
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http://www.economist.com/images/20061118/TAB1.gif Besides, the data for the 3rd quarter are going to be revised upward. I'll be there when it happens within a month. |
Fabb, yes indeed, in the range 1.9%-2.6%. ;)
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HAHAHAHAHA. The most successful economy of the second half of the 20th century, was one in which the government didnt even compile economic statistics. Left unchecked collapse? LOL Oh, and the budget expansions, and tax cuts would have occurred without a recession and were all political. And Keynesian micromanagement died in America 27 years ago. I would know since I am in the business and follow every fed statement, report, speech, and decision. And booming? Over 4% for developed and over 8% for undeveloped nations is booming, anything less is just at grade growth. Dont get me wrong, 2% is good news, especially with little population growth. Europe growing at 2% adds more production in a year than India does when it grows at 8%. |
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You can't read this chart, can you ? Never mind. Time will tell. |
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v4.../Economist.gif The major Eurozone economies are forecast for annual GDP growth of 2 to 2.5% exactly as I said - except for Italy which can't even manage 2%. That's not a boom. France's growth in Q3 was 0%. Admittedly that follows high growth in Q2 but no kind of boom has growth for even one quarter at 0%. I don't consider Britain to be booming even though the economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.8% in Q3 (and over the last four quarters) and is forecast for 2.6% for the year. Other major developed world economies on that chart such as the United States (3.3%), Canada (2.8%), Australia (2.7%), Japan (2.7%) are also forecast to grow faster than the major Eurozone economies in 2006. |
What's wrong with you ?
The Euro zone is not reduced to France, Italy or Germany. Is that what people believe ? The chart has a line that refers to the Euro zone and it reads 2.6 percent in 2006. Who cares about the details ? Of course, some members have a higher growth (Spain, Ireland, Finland, Greece, Austria... ) than others. In any integrated economy, I guess that some regions grow faster than others. It's a fact that the US economy is slowing down, and the economy of the Euro Zone is gaining momentum. If you don't like the world "booming", that's your problem. What's important is the current growth rate with respect to the potential growth rate. The Euro Zone is doing more than OK. |
VW has announced today that they fire 4,000 jobs in Brussels - where I am currently based.
Do not tell these people the euro economy is "booming". PS: Monkey is one of the most valuable and respected forumer. |
He isn't he is like a dog with a bone, and never EVER wrong. He will carry on arguing until everyone is dead just to prove he is more intelligent than everyone combined.
You obviously haven't read one of his 'Economist based sessions'. |
:previous: I beg to differ.
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(Germans)
How does it feel not to be able to find a job? The Stats are saying Europe's largest economy needs to pull an Ireland. Yes, it can be done. And yes you can have 6% GDP growth. |
French Consumer Spending Rose Following Unemployment Decline
By Sandrine Rastello
Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- French consumer spending on manufactured goods rose in October after unemployment fell to a five-year low. Such spending, which accounts for about 15 percent of the economy, increased 0.9 percent from September, when it dropped a revised 2.5 percent, Insee, the Paris-based national statistics office, reported today. Economists expected a 1 percent gain, according to the median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Consumers have sustained the economy's expansion as investment slowed and exports fell, partly because unemployment dropped to 8.8 percent in September, the lowest since October 2001 and oil prices slid. Even after recording no growth in the three months through September, Europe's third-largest economy this year is headed for the fastest expansion since 2000. ``Consumption should stay strong through Christmas,'' said Paul Guest, chief European economist at Moody's Economy.com, a London-based consultancy. ``Consumer confidence has gone up from last spring, unemployment is down, oil prices have gone down. There's a little more money to spend there.'' The spending increase was led by a 1.1 percent gain in car sales and a 1.5 percent advance in textile and leather goods. French car and light-truck sales jumped 12 percent last month, the national carmakers association said. The September spending figure was revised from a decline of 2.7 percent. Tax Cuts Falling oil prices may be helping consumers, who also will see the first effects of an income-tax reduction in the first quarter. Crude has declined about 25 percent from the record $78.40 a barrel on July 14. Crude oil for January delivery traded at about $60 today. Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin's government geared its 2007 budget toward consumer spending before presidential elections. The plan includes almost 6 billion euros ($7.7 billion) in tax cuts, rebates and measures to buoy spending. The consumer may continue to underpin growth in the coming quarters, said Nicolas Sobczak, a Paris-based economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ``The situation could turn more problematic for France at the end of 2007,'' Sobczak said. `` By that time the support from the housing market will have disappeared.'' After rising more than 10 percent a year since 1999 and more than 15 percent in the past two years, French house prices are likely to flatten out by the end of next year, he said. The strength of the market has helped push spending on home- equipment goods, which last month surged 19 percent from a year earlier. To contact the reporter responsible for this story: Sandrine Rastello in Paris srastello@bloomberg.net |
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German Ifo index rises unexpectedly in Oct to 105.3
10.25.2006, 06:00 AM
MUNICH (AFX) - The Ifo institute said its business climate index for Germany rose to 105.3 in October from 104.9 in September, beating expectations and indicating the country's economic expansion will continue into next year. Economists polled by AFX News had expected the index to decline to 104.5. The business assessment index, which measures current conditions, grew to 111.8 in October from 111.3 in September. Economists were looking for a more modest increase to 111.5. The forward-looking business expectations index improved for the first time in three months, rising to 99.2 from 98.9 and beating economists' expectations for a decline to 97.9. 'These survey results indicate that the economic expansion will continue despite the increase in VAT next year,' Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn said. Businesses in the manufacturing sector were more confident about the six-month outlook than in September, Sinn said, adding their export expectations were also more favourable. In the construction industry, the business climate improved minimally as companies were slightly more positive about the current situation, while expectations about the next six months were similar to last month. In wholesaling, businesses were clearly more positive than in September - both with regard to the current situation and the business outlook, Sinn said. Retailers were also more upbeat about their current business situation, though their six-month outlook was 'clearly more pessimistic'. |
Meanwhile Greman growth has slowed to err.... 2 to 2.5%: ;)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6176392.stm |
2.5% growth for 2006 is not a slowdown but a significant acceleration over the 0.9% Germany reported in 2005. You mixed that up with the Q3 numbers which were down from Q2. But Q2 was an unusually strong quarter due to the football world cup and nobody expected that performance to continue.
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*= http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/comp...8-1783_2034160 **= http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/...18a80f08-31283 |
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