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-   -   July 1 '06 CSA Census estimates (large MSAs with no CSAs added) (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=129103)

urban_encounter Apr 12, 2007 1:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveD (Post 2759658)
Zowie!! I have to admit I'm not familiar with the area, but those towns following Sacramento caught my eye, so I pulled up microsoft streets and started looking around. Truckee is 100 miles from downtown Sacramento! That's part of the same metro?


I don't totally understand Truckee either, since they are so far away. I suspect that it has more to do with the residents of Truckee commuting into to Sacramento for work since Truckee is mostly an Alpine town.

Most of the population of Sacramento MSA is Sacramento County (about 1.4 million) and the western edges of Placer and El Dorado County (about 20-25 minutes outside of DT Sacramento on I-80 and US-50 respectively)..

Arden Arcade is actually smack dab in the middle of Sacramento, and it's an unicorporated urban enclave of Sacramento County, that is trying to incorporate.

SteveD Apr 12, 2007 2:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by urban_encounter (Post 2760726)
I don't totally understand Truckee either, since they are so far away. I suspect that it has more to do with the residents of Truckee commuting into to Sacramento for work since Truckee is mostly an Alpine town.

Most of the population of Sacramento MSA is Sacramento County (about 1.4 million) and the western edges of Placer and El Dorado County (about 20-25 minutes outside of DT Sacramento on I-80 and US-50 respectively)..

Arden Arcade is actually smack dab in the middle of Sacramento, and it's an unicorporated urban enclave of Sacramento County, that is trying to incorporate.

Yes, I suspect you're right there. I know the census definition for inclusion in an MSA is an "employment interchange number" of 25 (meaning percent), but, they will include areas where the "employment interchange number" is as low as 15, if local opinion (in both areas) favors the combination.

SacTownAndy Apr 12, 2007 4:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveD (Post 2760913)
Yes, I suspect you're right there. I know the census definition for inclusion in an MSA is an "employment interchange number" of 25 (meaning percent), but, they will include areas where the "employment interchange number" is as low as 15, if local opinion (in both areas) favors the combination.

Truckee is a small mountain town in Placer County between Sacramento and Reno (think Donner Party). Placer County has a few hundred-thousand residents of which I would say 85%-95% live within 15-20 miles or less of downtown Sacramento (in the suburbs along the Sacramento-Placer County lines). Because of where the huge majority of this county's population is weighted and because these people commute into Sacramento county, Placer County (rightfully so) is included in the Sacramento MSA and CSA. Because of this, the handful of people who live in the mountain communities of Placer County are included as well. I would agree though that Truckee as a community seems to have greater ties to Reno than to Sacramento. But because of the much larger Placer County suburbs like Roseville, Rocklin, Lincoln, Auburn, Granite Bay, etc, close to Sacramento, the entire county is counted.

The same applies to El Dorado County as well. The vast majority of county residents live within 20 miles of downtown Sac, and because of this, the few people living in the mountains are included as well.

I would guess that these far flung communities account for maybe 2%-3% of the metro population (CSA) with the remaining 97%-98% living within a definite and defined urban area centered around downtown Sacramento. The vast majority of Placer and El Dorado Counties are a National Forest as well.

SteveD Apr 12, 2007 4:49 PM

:previous: SacTownAndy; Truckee is actually in Nevada County, not Placer County. Truckee (actually, the Truckee-Grass Valley Micropolitan area) is added to the Sacramento MSA to form the Sacramento CSA. The only way for that to have happened is for the standards which I previously mentioned, i.e. commuting patterns, either 25 percent minimum or 15 percent minimum plus local favorable opinion, to have been met within Nevada County. For "Truckee" to be named in the Sacramento CSA in the manner that it is must mean that Truckee is the largest municipal area within Nevada County.

ltsmotorsport Apr 12, 2007 6:11 PM

Yeah, it's definitely the I-80 connection that makes it possible to be included.

SacTownAndy Apr 12, 2007 7:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveD (Post 2762244)
:previous: SacTownAndy; Truckee is actually in Nevada County, not Placer County. Truckee (actually, the Truckee-Grass Valley Micropolitan area) is added to the Sacramento MSA to form the Sacramento CSA. The only way for that to have happened is for the standards which I previously mentioned, i.e. commuting patterns, either 25 percent minimum or 15 percent minimum plus local favorable opinion, to have been met within Nevada County. For "Truckee" to be named in the Sacramento CSA in the manner that it is must mean that Truckee is the largest municipal area within Nevada County.

Ah, gotcha. My bad. With the way that I-80 snakes in between the two counties up there, I was thinking Truckee was in Placer County. I'm not very familiar with how the CSA definitions work- could it be that these people in Nevada County are commuting to Placer County or do they need to be commuting to Sacramento County to be included in the CSA? Just curious.

SteveD Apr 12, 2007 7:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SacTownAndy (Post 2762644)
Ah, gotcha. My bad. With the way that I-80 snakes in between the two counties up there, I was thinking Truckee was in Placer County. I'm not very familiar with how the CSA definitions work- could it be that these people in Nevada County are commuting to Placer County or do they need to be commuting to Sacramento County to be included in the CSA? Just curious.

I believe the standard for micropolitan or metropolitan areas to be rolled into an adjacent metropolitan area to form a CSA pertains to the percentage commuting to any of the adjoining metro's counties, which would mean, yes, it could include Nevada County to Placer County commuters, but, if I'm wrong I hope someone will correct me on that.

BrianSac Apr 14, 2007 2:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveD (Post 2762654)
I believe the standard for micropolitan or metropolitan areas to be rolled into an adjacent metropolitan area to form a CSA pertains to the percentage commuting to any of the adjoining metro's counties, which would mean, yes, it could include Nevada County to Placer County commuters, but, if I'm wrong I hope someone will correct me on that.



Is SutterCounty included in the Sacramento CMA? It should, as it borders Sacramento County.

Also, What about the Marysville-Yuba City area would it ever be included in the Sacramento CMA.

One more thing: Stockton-Modesto has been mentioned about being included in SJ-Oak-SF CMA, why?

Why not put Stockton-Modesto in the Sacramento CMA, afterall the Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto Media Market is the 19th largest in the USA, and Stockton-Modesto has always been part of the Sacramento Media Market, never the SJ-Oak-SF media market.

Side note: Will Sacramento International every change to SAC; instead of SMF. Currently, SAC stands for Sacramento's Executive Airport. SMF stands for Sacramento's International airport. There has been talk of closing the Executive airport; if that were the case then maybe SMF can be changed to SAC. I'll put this question out to the Transportation thread also for those that care.

BrianSac Apr 14, 2007 2:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveD (Post 2756967)
:previous: the next 16, using the same guidelines as in my first post (felt compelled to go one extra, since it was Vegas, with its absurd growth rate):

1. New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA 21,976,224 569,491
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA 17,775,984 1,334,406
3. Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI 9,725,317 390,434
4. Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV 8,211,213 607,300
5. Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-RI-NH 7,465,634 148,278
6. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA 7,228,948 112,261
7. Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD 6,382,714 167,901
8. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 6,359,758 834,498
9. Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX 5,641,077 799,262
10. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville, GA-AL 5,478,667 894,341

11. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL (MSA) 5,463,857 434,568
12. Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI 5,410,014 43,549
13. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (MSA) 4,039,182 760,650
14. Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia, WA 3,876,211 261,465
15. Minneapolis-St. Paul-St. Cloud, MN-WI 3,502,891 217,464
16. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA (MSA) 2,941,454 116,521
17. Denver-Aurora-Boulder, CO 2,927,911 279,657
18. Cleveland-Akron-Elyria, OH 2,917,801 -29,219
19. St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL 2,858,549 100,861
20. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL (MSA) 2,697,731 293,296

21. Pittsburgh-New Castle, PA 2,462,571 -61,418
22. Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Truckee, CA-NV 2,211,790 269,032
23. Charlotte-Gastonia-Salisbury, NC-SC 2,191,604 282,925
24. Cincinnati-Middletown-Wilmington, OH-KY-IN 2,147,617 92,322
25. Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA (MSA) 2,137,565 201,236
26. Orlando-The Villages, FL 2,053,623 343,546
27. Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS 2,034,796 126,627
28. Indianapolis-Anderson-Columbus, IN 1,984,644 134,760
29. Columbus-Marion-Chillicothe, OH 1,953,575 111,836
30. San Antonio, TX (MSA) 1,942,217 222,751

31. Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump, NV 1,820,232 393,927



To Prove that I am a Population Nerd:

Beginning with the last 16 cities, I re-calculated the numbers for the 2010 census assuming all the cities grew by the same numbers from the 2000-06 period. This is what the CMA's would look like:

21. Sacramento: 2,480,822...up 1 rank.

22. Charlotte: 2,474,529....up 1 rank.
23. Pittsburg: 2,401,153....down 2.
24. Orlando: 2,397,169...up 2.
25. Portland: 2,338,801......same rank.
26. Cincinatti: 2,239,939...down 2.
27. Las Vegas: 2,214,159...up 4 ranks.
28. San Antonio: 2,164,968....up 2.
29. Kansas City: 2,161,423....down 2.
30. Indianappolis: 2,119,404...down 2.
31. Columbus: 2,065, 411...down 2 ranks.

If somebody doesnt beat me to it, I'll do the top 20 next.

SteveD Apr 14, 2007 2:42 PM

:previous: I love it! I'm a population nerd too..yes, please do the top group too! I won't have time to today. So, you are taking the six year growth and adding another 2/3 of that to approximate 4 more years? Very cool. Yes, please do the top group! :tup:

Avian001 Apr 14, 2007 3:40 PM

FYI, here's a graphical representation of the list for the top 25. The ticks at the left represent increments of 2 million people.

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/6...angraphbg4.jpg

BrianSac Apr 14, 2007 4:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianSac (Post 2767268)
To Prove that I am a Population Nerd:

Beginning with the last 16 cities, I re-calculated the numbers for the 2010 census assuming all the cities grew by the same numbers from the 2000-06 period. This is what the CMA's would look like:

21. Sacramento: 2,480,822...up 1 rank.

22. Charlotte: 2,474,529....up 1 rank.
23. Pittsburg: 2,401,153....down 2.
24. Orlando: 2,397,169...up 2.
25. Portland: 2,338,801......same rank.
26. Cincinatti: 2,239,939...down 2.
27. Las Vegas: 2,214,159...up 4 ranks.
28. San Antonio: 2,164,968....up 2.
29. Kansas City: 2,161,423....down 2.
30. Indianappolis: 2,119,404...down 2.
31. Columbus: 2,065, 411...down 2 ranks.

If somebody doesnt beat me to it, I'll do the top 20 next.

1. NY: 22,545,715...same rank.
2. LA: 19,110,390....same.
3. CHi: 10,115,751.....same.
4. DC: 8,818,513....same.
5. Boston: 7,613,912...same.
6. SJ-OAK-SF: 7,341,209....same.
7. Dallas: 7,194,256.....up 1.
8. PHILLy: 6,550,615...down 1.
9. Houston: 6,440,339...same.
10. Atlanta: 6,373,008.....same.
11. Miami: 5,898,425....same.
12. Detroit: 5,453,563....same.
13. PHX: 4,799,832....same.
14. SEAttle: 4,13,676.....same.
15. Minneapolis: 3,720,355.....same.
16. Denver: 3,207,568...up 1.
17. San Diego: 3,057,975....down 1.
18. Tampa: 2,991,027...up 2.
19. STL: 2,959,410....same.
20. Cleveland: 2,888,582......down 2.

SteveD Apr 14, 2007 4:22 PM

:previous: Very interesting! Thanks! I guess it's gonna take another ten years for Houston and Atlanta to slide past Philly, and for Dallas to slide past SJ-Oak-SF and Boston....Nice graph Avian! Thanx! The really smooth progression is interrupted by a rather sudden drop off between Detroit and Phoenix...

BrianSac Apr 14, 2007 4:44 PM

Quote:

To Prove that I am a Population Nerd:

Beginning with the last 16 cities, I re-calculated the numbers for the 2010 census assuming all the cities grew by the same numbers from the 2000-06 period. This is what the CMA's would look like:

21. Sacramento: 2,480,822...up 1 rank.

22. Charlotte: 2,474,529....up 1 rank.
23. Pittsburg: 2,401,153....down 2.
24. Orlando: 2,397,169...up 2.
25. Portland: 2,338,801......same rank.
26. Cincinatti: 2,239,939...down 2.
27. Las Vegas: 2,214,159...up 4 ranks.
28. San Antonio: 2,164,968....up 2.
29. Kansas City: 2,161,423....down 2.
30. Indianappolis: 2,119,404...down 2.
31. Columbus: 2,065, 411...down 2 ranks.
The US Census Bureau always shortchanges California much more than other states, so the California Dept. of Finance as their own figures for California cities. This is where SAC really should be: same rank, but close to 100,000 above Charlotte than 6,000.

20. Cleveland: 2,888,582...down 2 ranks.
21. Sacramento: 2,560,812.....based on Cal. Dept. of Finace estimates......up 1 rank.
22. Charlotte: 2,474,529....up 1.
23. Pittsburg: 2,401,153....down 2.
24. Orlando: 2,397,169...up 2.
25. Portland: 2,338,801......same rank.
26. Cincinatti: 2,239,939...down 2.
27. Las Vegas: 2,214,159...up 4 ranks.
28. San Antonio: 2,164,968....up 2.
29. Kansas City: 2,161,423....down 2.
30. Indianappolis: 2,119,404...down 2.
31. Columbus: 2,065, 411...down 2 ranks.

unusualfire Apr 14, 2007 5:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianSac (Post 2767268)
To Prove that I am a Population Nerd:

Beginning with the last 16 cities, I re-calculated the numbers for the 2010 census assuming all the cities grew by the same numbers from the 2000-06 period. This is what the CMA's would look like:

21. Sacramento: 2,480,822...up 1 rank.

22. Charlotte: 2,474,529....up 1 rank.
23. Pittsburg: 2,401,153....down 2.
24. Orlando: 2,397,169...up 2.
25. Portland: 2,338,801......same rank.
26. Cincinatti: 2,239,939...down 2.
27. Las Vegas: 2,214,159...up 4 ranks.
28. San Antonio: 2,164,968....up 2.
29. Kansas City: 2,161,423....down 2.
30. Indianappolis: 2,119,404...down 2.
31. Columbus: 2,065, 411...down 2 ranks.

If somebody doesnt beat me to it, I'll do the top 20 next.


A guess you are assuming no other counties or msa are added to each of theses places or even some taken away?

Trae Apr 14, 2007 6:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveD (Post 2758818)
:previous: One post up...LMich...thanks for posting that. I've said several times in this forum that, while enormous, Atlanta's land area is really not out of line with several other of the nation's largest metros, in particular other sunbelt sprawlers. This is not meant to minimize Atlanta's jaw-dropping sprawl, but it is meant to point out that the area is sometimes unfairly singled out, since there's really comparable sprawl in many other areas.

Well, the counties in Texas are large. I know of about three counties in Houston's CSA that have minimal development. The rest is rural and redneck-like.

Avian001 Apr 14, 2007 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveD (Post 2767400)
....The really smooth progression is interrupted by a rather sudden drop off between Detroit and Phoenix...


Yeah, I noticed that too. It's also interesting that Phoenix is growing faster than Seattle right now, which is growing a bit faster than Minneapolis, which is growing faster than San Diego. That graph will probably smooth out in that area. (Of course that doesn't mean that any one of those cities won't suddenly take off in a spurt like so many other American cities have in the last 50 years.) Anyways, it's an interesting snapshot of recent growth.

LMich Apr 14, 2007 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trae (Post 2767597)
Well, the counties in Texas are large. I know of about three counties in Houston's CSA that have minimal development. The rest is rural and redneck-like.

It's not about physical development, though, but about commuter patterns, so how rural and urban a particular CSA county is really doesn't matter. This can be said of most area (i.e. mostly rural counties tied to the central area). And, in a case like LA County (a HUGE county), this makes it much more an anamoly than any Texas county, so it's not that big of a deal.

I did say, after all, to take into account the size of counties in each state.

Trae Apr 15, 2007 1:36 AM

Well I live here, and I can think of two counties of off the top of my head that are real rural. Chambers and Waller county. Chambers is in the eastern side, and Waller is in the northwestern side. Both have development popping up in them, but they both straddle the border of Harris County (3.6 million people, the size of Dallas and Tarrant County in the Metroplex combined). The people in those small developments all commute to Houston. You go just a bit away from those small developments, your in rural America. There are just enough people commuting to Houston (since there are no large population centers in those counties), to Houston.

Just go to Google Earth, and see what I am talking about.

BrianSac Apr 15, 2007 1:42 AM

North American Stats: If you added in Canadian cities: 2006, & Mexican cities 2005
Mexican cities are shortchanged, here dont have latest stats

1. New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA 21,976,224 569,491
2. Mexico City, 19,230,000* this does not include the whole DF
3. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA 17,775,984 1,334,406
4. Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI 9,725,317 390,434
5. Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV 8,211,213 607,300

6. Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-RI-NH 7,465,634 148,278
7. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA 7,228,948 112,261
8. Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD 6,382,714 167,901
9. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 6,359,758 834,498
10. Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX 5,641,077 799,262
11. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville, GA-AL 5,478,667 894,341

12. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL (MSA) 5,463,857 434,568
13. Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI 5,410,014 43,549
14. Toronto, 5,113,149
15. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (MSA) 4,039,182 760,650
16. Guadalajara, Mexico, 4,100,000
17. Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia, WA 3,876,211 261,465
18. Monterrey, Mexico, 3,660,000
19. Montreal, Canada, 3,635,571
20. Minneapolis-St. Paul-St. Cloud, MN-WI 3,502,891 217,464
21. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA (MSA) 2,941,454 116,521
22. Denver-Aurora-Boulder, CO 2,927,911 279,657
23. Cleveland-Akron-Elyria, OH 2,917,801 -29,219
24. St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL 2,858,549 100,861
25. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL (MSA) 2,697,731 293,296

26. Pittsburgh-New Castle, PA 2,462,571 -61,418
27. Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Truckee, CA-NV 2,291,780 269,032
28. Charlotte-Gastonia-Salisbury, NC-SC 2,191,604 282,925


29. Cincinnati-Middletown-Wilmington, OH-KY-IN 2,147,617 92,322
30. Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA (MSA) 2,137,565 201,236
31. Vancouver, BC, 2,116,581
32. Puebla, Mexico, 2,110,000
33. Orlando-The Villages, FL 2,053,623 343,546
34. Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS 2,034,796 126,627
35. Indianapolis-Anderson-Columbus, IN 1,984,644 134,760
36. Columbus-Marion-Chillicothe, OH 1,953,575 111,836
37. San Antonio, TX (MSA) 1,942,217 222,751

38. Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump, NV 1,820,232 393,927


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