Jazz only makes it "work" because AC buys the capacity and uses it to feed longerer haul flights. Without that, the only other way a new shorthaul turboprop carrier has a hope in hell is to be like Porter and start out with a sweetheart deal with a certain airport.

Tremblant to Charlevoix? For what? To shuttle around casino employees? Lol. Montreal-Sherbrooke? A bit ridiculous.

Air Canada originally had YYC-YWG suspended until after Labour day, but they now plan to resume the route August 1.

I surprised YYC-FRA survived another schedule change, but I'm still doubtful it will be resuming in August.

The airport Porter uses certainly does protect them from much competition. It also limits their growth.

I'd say that Treq could make a go of it if it used a model like Provincial Airways or Perimeter Aviation. Smaller planes = less onerous regulations. You'd probably have enough traffic to fill a 19-seater on government contracts alone. They might even get some corporate self-connects via Montreal. There's plenty of Dash8-100s and 1900s available. The Q400 is the stuff of dreams and burnt investor cash though.

I doubt the established competition is lining up to fight over crumbs, especially since they just got out of that business.

And just one week later all planned long haul resumptions in August have been cancelled other than YVR-PVG (with a stop in ICN).

Speaking of YUL-LIS, I hear TAP is going ahead with the launch of YUL on July 30. Bookings are strong apparently.

Also, Swiss resumed ZRH-YUL this past Tuesday, ans so did TK on Wednesday. Good to see more European carriers resume/launch service.

Pascan are expanding in Eastern Quebec with the addition of YBC and YGP, meaning those airports will continue to have airline service. They will also start flying to YUL in addition to YHU.

As well:

https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...819439259.html

That's great news. They are better positioned to serve most of these markets.

Some interesting comments on load factors thus far for Transat's first 9 days of operations commencing July 23.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/view...?f=3&t=1447493

With there business model you would expect for the first week that the aircraft go out near full and come back empty. So those numbers are not bad.

One of Pascan's owners this the Treq co-op is a thing for dreamers:

He's right about that. You can‘t start up an airline in this day and age in a matter of weeks.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle...-canada-pascan

AC S21 Long-Haul route number changes:

I see they leave very few room for expansions... Seems like they does leave room for 2 additional LHR flights, from either YVR, YUL, or new Canadian city? AC830 and AC888 are still open for new destination (or additional Canadian cites to CPH, BRU, VIE, or FCO)

YVR-CDG seems out of place though...

This was to be LH's inaugural summer at YOW after AC handed off to them. It never started due to COVID. I wonder if AC might ever return to YOW-FRA if LH doesn't.

Here's a rough guide to AC's flight number meanings:

001-099 - Usually TPAC, or flights in/out of Asia. (HND, PVG, TLV)
1XX - Mainline transcontinental in/out of YYZ (YEG, YYC, YVR)
2XX - Mainline out of YVR (YYC, YEG, YWG), also includes YYZ-YWG rotations
3XX - Mainline transcontinental in/out of YUL (YEG, YYC, YWG, YVR)
4XX - Rapidair flights (YYZ-YUL/YOW) trips
5XX - Mainline West coast transborder (YVR-SFO, YYC-LAX) etc...
6XX - Any Mainline flight to or from maritimes (YYZ-YYT, YHZ-YUL)
7XX - Mainline East coast transborder (YYZ-LGA, SFO-YUL)
8XX - Mainline Trans Atlantic flights (YYZ-LHR, YVR-CDG)
9XX - Any Mainline flight to southern vacation destinations
1XXX - Usually extra Mainline flights they haven’t come up with a number for yet (YYZ-YXE, DEN)
2XXX - Extra sections, last two digits are same as last two digits as originally cancelled flights

I could see them using some 1XXX flight numbers for more Europe destinations.

Those 321LRs are looking more genius everyday....

It's a more fuel-efficient 757-like plane with commonality to other Airbus A320 models. All the benefit and none of the pain of taking on a new model type.

Definitely Airbus has grabbed the niche that Boeing was hoping to exploit with their New Midsized Airplane. Once again, Boeing is left in the dust.

Any airline that goes hopping across the Atlantic from Western Europe to the East Coast of North America or vice-versa aiming for secondary destinations now has the plane to do it.

I could see it fit in AC's fleet - either YYZ/YUL to secondary European destinations or YHZ/YYT to primary European centres.

Might not need... AC will need to trim some routes, as there are not enough plane to run all the service currently scheduled. For instance, the current schedule will require about 11-13 787-8 (which AC only have 8 of them):

YYZ - YVR, BOG, SFO (2), LAX (2), BRU
YUL - TLV, BOG, BRU
YVR - YYZ, BNE, KIX, EWR, ZRH
YYC - NRT
YOW - LHR

3xx are also YOW transcons and YYZ-YMM if it ever returns. I wonder whether Rouge will still use 15xx-19xx? They probably don’t need more than three hundreds series nowadays - 1 each for domestic, transborder and Caribbean. Actually, if KEF returns, that would be the one transatlantic route that would stay Rouge on a 320...or 319 if a few of those stick around.

Would not be surprised to see most 788 domestic, transborder and Atlantic get the 333. Also would not be surprised if some routes operate less-than-daily, thereby fitting more routes into the 8 frames.

At the rate (and direction) we’re going, summer 2021 will only be marginally better than summer 2020.

Flair will be taking up some of the slack where Air Canada has left off this Summer with flights between Saskatchewan and Vancouver & Toronto four times a week starting in August.

https://i.imgur.com/7ZwvZVw.png

https://globalnews.ca/news/7210239/f...-saskatchewan/

Flair are adding YMM, YXS and YYJ too apparently. They’re staying West it appears and abandoning their planned Eastern Canada expansion.

First day of Transat ops since they shut down operations on April 1.

TS110, an A332, currently airborne doing YUL-CDG. Hearing it has a load factor above 75%, which is excellent, all things considered.
TS122, YYZ-LGW, A321LR, about to depart as well. Running slightly late.

Glad to see TS back in the skies.

It's a question of when, not if. Maybe not by summer 2021, but I'm fairly confident the route will return.

:yeahthat:

Who knows, if TS didn't have the A321LR in its fleet, they might have kept delaying their resumption a la Porter.

What a dumb move by AC to go with the Max. Imagine if they had 20 A321LRs in their fleet right now instead of 20 odd Max's. What a versatile machine. Would have been perfect for AC.

There is also the strong possibility that a few of the B788 routes currently in the schedules for S21 wont operate at all. I have my doubts about YUL-BOG, YUL-TLV and YYZ-BRU. Basically all the duplicate routes out of YUL/YYZ might not operate. Would make sense, especially if demand to Europe/South America hasn't picked up enough by next summer. YYC-NRT might not happen either, although the fact that Tokyo has the Olympics might be it's saving grace.

Was the 321LR available at the time AC placed the 321LR order?

I give the Olympics next year a 50/50 chance of happening...at least with spectators. Globally, we’re still not at the peak of wave 1, let alone 2. We’re spiking modestly in Canada. If humans were patient enough to shut everything down for nine months instead of 1-3 months, there’s a good chance COVID could be beaten. But alas history is repeating itself. We humanoids never learn.

I agree that YOW-FRA will be back at some point.

At this point, I don't even see YYC-LHR coming back until early next year. If YYC-NRT does return in S21 I can see it operating a less than daily schedule (3-4x weekly). The only AC long haul from YYC I see coming back before the end of the year is FRA.

WestJet will get a full monopoly on YYC-LON for a while. With CDG also coming back, I'm curious if they still intend on keeping it around year-round like originally planned.

Here's Flair's new route rundown, flight frequencies and start date seems to be 23AUG20: https://cms.flyflair.com/uploads/0cf...4f021133ff.pdf

Abandoning the east for more west.

Some notable routes include:
YYZ-YMM-YVR
YWG-YLW-YVR
YYJ-YVR ops X2 (whoa! - I guess it'll be timed for connections - the only route that doesn't operate 2x weekly)
YXS-YEG

YYJ flights connect to all flights to/from YYZ via Alberta (should be the same plane)

It can also connect to #8 bound for YLW, but not the other way around

Sunday/Thursday:
1. YYZ-YEG-YVR, YVR-YYJ, YYJ-YVR, YVR-YEG-YYZ
2. YYZ-YWG-YYC-YLW, YLW-YEG, YEG-YXS-YVR
3. YVR-YXE-YYZ, YYZ-YXE-YVR

Monday/Friday
4. YYZ-YYC-YVR, YVR-YYJ, YYJ-YVR, YVR-YYC-YYZ
5. YVR-YXS-YEG, YEG-YLW, YLW-YYC-YWG-YYZ
6. YVR-YQR-YYZ, YYZ-YQR-YVR

Tuesday
No service

Wednesday/Saturday
7. YYZ-YMM-YVR, YVR-YYJ, YYJ-YVR, YVR-YMM-YYZ
8. YVR-YWG, YWG-YLW-YVR, YVR-YLW-YWG, YWG-YVR

Need 3 planes per day. One start/end from YYZ, another one from YVR, and the third alternates between the two (5/YYZ, 2/YVR).

I’m guessing you meant the Max order. The answer is no. It was close though. AC ordered the max in Dec 2013. First deliveries were in 2017.

Airbus launched the A321LR in January 2015, 13 months after AC ordered the Max. First customer, Arkia, received the model in November 2018.

AC should have waited 13 months and should have signed a deal for the A321LR with Airbus.

Looks like Flair are finally starting to get the hang of ULCC network planning.

I thought that one of the tricks to making the ULCC model work was to use less expensive airports (eg: YHM instead of YYZ, YXX instead of YVR), but I see that Flair uses both YVR and YYZ. I guess the closest alternate to YYC/YEG might be Red Deer but perhaps Red Deer is just too far out of the way.

Why is Montreal never part of the formula for ULCCs?

Maybe because there's not one but two airlines based there?

Toronto and Vancouver are well served by airlines yet the ULCCs always include them... OK, Abbotsford and Hamilton. But still.

Same reason why Montreal isn’t a part of the WS formula. Lack of market penetration and French language requirements. You’d need French speaking FA’s. It’s an added cost.

How is that any different than YYZ, YVR or YYC? And besides, as far as the domestic market goes, we only have 1 real airline. AC.

Let’s not kid ourselves. The main market that Flair is after with all these flights is YYZ-YVR and back. The rest is just fluff.

I think Flair has found a bit of safety with YVR and YYZ because WestJet won't send Swoop out of those airports.

I'm mostly wondering if ULCC really survives at all in Canada in the near term.

Swoop will still be around to keep others at bay on behalf of Westjet, but Flair just missed the peak summer season for travel in Canada.

I'm not sure how deep those owners' pockets are. Another weak travel year and I could see the weakest airlines packing it in.

Define “real”.

In fact, on a recent Who Wants to be a Millionaire episode, one of the questions was “What is Canada’s second biggest airline after Air Canada?”. And wouldn’t you know, “none of the above” wasn’t an option and the correct answer was “Westjet”.

I think thenoflyzone was speaking specially for YUL having only one real domestic airline based in Montreal. Air Transit may not count since it's mostly seasonal to international destinations and Westjet doesn't really have a base hub at YUL.

WestJet loaded more S21 changes this weekend.

International:
YYC-CDG has been increased to daily from May 24.

YYC-FCO looks like it could also be eventually extended to year round/longer season too, as it's schedule was extended until end of October (similiar to CDG).

YYZ-BCN 789 replacing 763, and season re-extended into October (was planned to end in Sept this year).

Transborder:
YYC-DEN increased to 6x weekly

I can double check if there were others in a bit. All subject to change of course.

Additionally, WS slashed it's Tranborder schedule in August.

Will now only operate 3x weekly YYC-LAX & ATL. All other routes have been cancelled.

One of the Flair jets looks like it'll be dedicated to be mostly for flying to & from the province of Saskatchewan.
With Flair focusing it's business on Western Canada and YYZ, Great to see high expectations particularly for Saskatchewan, which should keep the province's AC and Westjet domestic service price point in-check with the other top airports in Canada.

YVR has zero airlines based there.

Qatar Airways still not showing any scheduled flights to YYZ past July 30th.

They must have gotten extra-bilateral authority to operate 3x weekly flights to YYZ in July only, and are maybe awaiting the same paperwork for August.

That being said, I don't see any such decisions on the Canadian Transportation Agency's website. Weird, all of this, to say the least.

https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/decisions

LOL.

So you think Flair isn't flying to YUL because AC and TS headquarters are there?

We both know that's not true. When you said "based", I figured you meant in terms of "hub" operations, and especially domestic hub ops.

In which case, YYZ, YYC and YVR most definitely have 2 airlines "based" there, whereas YUL only has 1, again, in terms of domestic ops.

No one cares where an airlines' pencil pushers are based at.

Ya i should use the term "headquarters" not base.

A Winnipeg Airport Authority spokesperson was on the local morning news talking about their new mandatory mask order (masks had previously been mandatory going through security and boarding planes, but now it's everywhere in the building).

They were saying Winnipeg Richardson International is operating about 25% of normal passenger flight volumes and about 10% - 15% in terms of actual passengers compared to last year at this time.

Air Transat is cancelled all Western Canada routes this coming winter. Only YVR-YYZ/YUL will still operate for connection purposes.

https://www.travelweek.ca/news/trans...r-canada-deal/

Additionally, the AC/TS deal has been delayed.

YUL handled 84,300 pax in June, which is a 220% increase over May.

Encouraging sign.

YTD total: 4,241,000

https://www.admtl.com/sites/default/...esse_VA_VF.pdf

More like delayed indefinitely! Hardy surprising. Transat lives on! Can’t complain.

YOW's June pax stats are out:

Sector / Jun-19 / Jun-20 / % Change
Dom: 363,732 / 20,256 / -94.4%
TB: 48,101 / 219 / -99.5% - farewell to transborder pax until ???
Int'l: 23,088 / 0 / -100.0%
TTL: 434,921 / 20,475 / -95.3%

Sector / YTD 2019 / YTD 2020 / % Change
Dom: 1,918,579 / 773,127 / -59.7%
TB: 386,410 / 163,093 / -57.8%
Int'l: 263,212 / 168,382 / -36.0%
TTL: 2,568,201 / 1,104,602 / -57.0%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2019
Dom: 2,848,101 / -28.8%
TB: 462,980 / -35.8%
Int'l: 331,807 / -14.4%
TTL: 3,642,888 / -28.72%

I added a new, at least for the time being, more meaningful metric: month-over-month changes:
Sector / May-20 / Jun-20 / % Change
Dom: 8,386 / 20,256 / +141.5%
TB: 535 / 219 / -59.1%
Int'l: 0 / 0 / N/A
TTL: 8,921 / 20,475 / +129.5%

Encouraging yes but still behind YYC's numbers post pandemic.

Obviously, that is explained by more domestic pax in Calgary. Even in a pandemic, YUL pax stats for May were 37% international (44% including transborder).

Q
 

Each airport played to its strengths. YYC on the domestic front, and YUL on the international front.

YUL always lagged behind YYC in terms of domestic passengers. This was true before the pandemic as well. When international travel all but disappeared, this fact was highlighted even more.

That being said, YUL still managed to retain service to Europe (AC, AF) and Asia (QR) throughout the pandemic, something YYC wasn't able to replicate.

In fact for all of Q2, YYC had a mere 345 international passengers, all of them in April, and zero in May and June. Considering YYC is still one of only 4 airports in the whole country that can accept flights from Europe and Asia, that is pretty bad, and highlights YYC's weak spot. Whereas the core of international routes out of YUL have already returned to service. We are even going to get a new carrier, TAP, shortly. This to me, is far more important than passenger numbers.

Like I said, the 220% increase in 1 month at YUL is encouraging, and, if kept up, should level the playing field in a month or two. TS resuming operations is a big push for Eastern airports, and will have nil effect on west Coast airports. That should help as well. By the time Porter resumes operations, all will be back to normal....

All of this, assuming there is no second wave, and that Europe keeps accepting Canadians. If that door closes one more time, all bets are off.

Alberta's trash economy played a factor in this. Otherwise, KLM likely would have stuck it out like they had intended to.

YYC's June Transborder numbers were also pretty good given there was just 2 flights for most of the month.