No. Load factors are very good out of Chicago. They would be crazy to hand that to UAL. Maybe some fleet changes will happen, but not a pull out ever.

One other point that will keep AA in Chicago forever, almost all the One World partners want to go to Chicago not Dallas or Charlotte. A few want to also go to Dallas but not that many.

What kind of future does CLT have now that AA and US have merged? Or, bigger picture, the main east coast hubs that AA has now are PHL, CLT, and MIA, plus New York. Will CLT continue to grow as a juggernaut; will it start to wither in favor of the others; or is some other hub scenario likely?

It would seem to me that you'd want a bigger city as your premier east coast hub. I'm curious why IAD isn't chosen for something like that; its location is great, it has lots of international and domestic o&d, and it's a desirable destination for foreign partners. Is physical expansion at IAD too constrained?

(Hopefully this is not going off topic, since these dynamics affect AA at ORD.)

IAD is somewhat of a mystery to me. I've never actually flown into that airport, despite frequent trips to DC - flying into DCA is always equivalent in price or even less, and vastly more convenient to boot. If I'm looking to fly on a budget, then IAD offers no deals and I choose BWI - the travel time into the city is comparable.

Also speaking purely anecdotally, if any airport will see reductions I'm betting on PHL. Traffic there has been stagnant for almost ten years, although admittedly the recession played a role.

I'll be satisfied if Rahm can wring the next phase of airfield improvements out of UA/AA, add a few new gates where the heating plant is (has been in the plan for some time) and possibly expand the international terminal. The western terminal isn't needed yet but I'm sure he feels free to use it as a boogeyman to move the rest of the OMP forward.

Some kind of western facility would be helpful for landside access. A western extension of the people-mover (or, as projected in the OMP, a new underground tram) could really help decongest the eastern access roads and facilities.

Is this true?? Relocating utility infrastructure like that is hella complicated and expensive. What would the basic plan be then - rebuild it somewhere further from the terminals? Or on those surface lots inside the loop?

The rental facility will help some since their shuttle buses won't be coming to the terminals anymore. I think any work on a western terminal or even just an access point is going to be postponed indefinitely as a bargaining chip since UA/AA/DL are terrified that a LCC would be able to enter in force.

I'd be pretty happy with the rest of the OMP upgrades minus the western terminal (to include a new concourse north of the L gates and expansion of T5). Some of the existing terminals are also in need of a major refresh/new concessions like T5 is getting. A few extra new gates not controlled by the dominant carriers will somewhat help keep prices in check but not totally offend the other airlines.

I'm not sure of the details just that the city has desired to put a concourse there for some time. Maybe it has major components nearing the end of their useful lives and they want a to get a tofer...new plant and more gates. Lot C would be the most obvious site for a replacement plant.

^ Lot C, yes that's what I was referring to. Seems that would be the least disruptive location to relocate a heating plant since it's just across the street. Well, across a ton of lanes of fast-moving ramps. But the heating plant is only a couple decades old I believe; hopefully recent energy technologies would offer a cost savings that would actually justify tearing it down now.

Here's the Winter 2014 schedules of AA/UA at ORD by plane type and departures:

United

ER4: 210
CR2: 66
CR7: 91
E70: 52
319: 38
320: 36
73G: 14
738: 25
739: 40
752: 16
753: 4
763: 5
777: 10

Total = 607
31% mainline

(for comparison, IAH has 596 flights, 41% mainline. a more than 100 flight reduction over last year)

American (includes US Airways flights)

ERD: 102
ER4: 106
CR7: 40
E75: 59
M80: 47
320: 6
321: 14
738: 88
752: 4
763: 5
777: 4

Total = 465
34% mainline

Some interesting applications for T5 gate space for summer 2014:

Emirates from Dubai (expected)
Kuwait Airways from Kuwait City
Jet Airways from Mumbai?

Cool... I have seen Kuwait 747F's at ORD several times so they might have enough cargo to make the flight a money maker even with light load factors. Did you ever hear anything more on the South African Airways flights??

Jet Airways can maybe take over the Delhi flight AA dumped even with very high load factors(it was always full...smart one AA)

I've heard nothing about SAA. The AA flights to Delhi might have been full, but at what cost? When I looked the fares were about the same as a flight to London, but twice the distance. They definitely weren't making any money on the fight. Asia is a big moneysink for AA, in the ballpark of -20% margin IIRC.

T5 Bottleneck
 

Iberia announced that they'll expand service at ORD to 10 flights this summer. Even though they depart from T3, T5 has got to be reaching capacity in the early afternoon to evening timeframe. Emirates isn't going to have space, not to mention others.

I'm surprised there hasn't been a mention by the city of trying to resolve this or bringing customs/boarder patrol to other terminals. This is preventing growth for the airport and city.

I believe the long term plan is to expand T5 into the old cargo area to the east.

Actually, AA is pulling out of DEL completely. Due to low demand. The seat availability is zero out. You have to take Air India. You can fly nonstop ORD-DEL by operated 777-300ER aircraft.

Actually, it is 10-weekly service, but not 10 flights.

Sorry for not claifying, but I don't think anyone thought Iberia would go to 10 flights a day...

My question remains the same about what Chicago is going to need to do soon for T5 and processing int'l traffic. ORD isn't slot restricted anymore, but with their capacity challenges in T5 they aren't able to openly support new int'l growth.

Forgive me for going off topic. Pre-merger, United's East Coast hub was IAD. Post-merger IAD is still a hub for United, however United's EWR hub has more destination. IAD still has a large presence of foreign carriers. My last count was 25-foreign carriers with number 26 starting service in June.

Now official...

Emirates says Hello Chicago

DUBAI, U.A.E., 24th February 2014 Emirates, a global connector of people, places and economies today announced that it is launching a daily service to Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, Terminal 5 from 5th August 2014. The service will be operated by a Boeing 777-200LR powered by GE90 engines.

http://www.emirates.com/us/english/a...66874&offset=0

^ Thanks for posting this.

Interesting factoid from the Tribune coverage of this -- existing Emirates freight service at ORD carried nearly 2 X the cargo tonnage out to DXB than it carried in from DXB. I wonder what we are exporting...


http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...,7251472.story
Emirates adding non-stop daily flights from O'Hare
February 24, 2014

Emirates airline will launch its first passenger service from Chicago this summer, according to the airline and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s office. The non-stop, daily service from Chicago O’Hare International Airport to Dubai will begin Aug. 5. Chicago will be Dubai-based Emirates ninth destination in the U.S. ... .
...
Besides carrying passengers, the aircraft will be equipped to transport up to 17 tons of cargo, increasing trade opportunities between Dubai and Chicago, the statement said. Emirates already operates twice-weekly freighter service to and from Chicago, which in 2013 carried nearly 7,400 tons of cargo from the city and more than 4,200 tons into the city. ...