I'm sure they will be back in summer, there is certainly still a market there. All airlines areconstantly reseraching loads, traffic, connection stats, capacity, etc. They would'nt have made this decision quickly, they would've been studying the same thing with their other markets and determined that YYC was the most logical to be cut. Below is the list of BA's other seasonal markets from LHR, it is a very small list compared to their year round destinations:

Almeria, Brindisi, Calgary, Chania, Corfu, Faro, Figari, Ibiza, Grenoble, Kefalonia, Kalamata, Menorca, Murcia, Mykonos, Nantes, Olbia, Palermo, Pula, Salzburg, Santorini, Split, Turin, Zakynthos

Basically all sun destinations in the Mediterranean, similar to our Sunwing and Transat destinations in Mexico and Carribean in the winter. YYC certainly doesn't match these other routes, it's a standout and I can see why skeptics think this is a first step to all-out cancellation. But I don't think they will do that, unless WS starts up and really takes over the market, then BA would bow out. It's just a sobering reminder that YYC really isn't an international airport in the global sense. Hainan and KLM are the only international carriers now with year round service,and with AC moving NRT to seasonal, even they only serve 2 overseas destinations.

WestJet has a ton of capacity on YYC-Hawaii planned for this winter. Theoretically, they could cut capacity a bit by replacing some of the 767 turns with a max, and go daily to LGW. That would bump them to two dailies total with YYZ-LGW already daily (iirc), and fill in the gaps a bit capacity wise in BA's absence. Year round LFs to Gatwick are mid 90s, so I cant imagine they wouldn't succeed, and yield should still be pretty reasonable.

Air Canada and Air China have concluded their JV agreement, implementation has all ready started and will continue for the next year. This will become a big deal for at least YYZ and YVR. YYC and possibly YUL could benefit as well.

I put YUL on the possibility list as they have all ready got service to PEK and PVG, so not much upside beyond larger aircraft. Tighter schedule coordination will help YUL transborder traffic that will not or chooses not to be routed through YYZ and YVR. YUL also has the limiting factor of not being able to handle transit without visa (aka visa waiver) as international and domestic departures are co-mingled.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4256217/a...ina-agreement/

Australia's airports and Canada's are remarkably similar when it comes to international traffic... int'l is concentrated at their 7 biggest airports with the lion's share going to the 4 biggest and then the three after that getting some basic international service.

In Canada there are about 8 airports that have almost all the international service. (Winnipeg is just below the cutoff for that.) As with Australia, it's the top 4 that have the bulk of those connections, while 5-8 have somewhat marginal international service (YOW, YEG, YQB, YHZ).

Also, in both countries you really have one kingpin that dominates international traffic (YYZ/SYD).

It's hard to envision a scenario where you can fly all over the place non-stop out of smaller airports like YOW, YWG, YQR, etc. Unless you live in YYZ and maybe YVR/YUL, chances are good that you'll be connecting somewhere if you're heading overseas.

I don’t know WS’s fleet deployment plan for W18/19 but I bet that it would want to capitalize on BA’s absence by doing as you suggest above, with perhaps YEG-OGG going to a MAX?

Halifax Stanfield current route map:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfBZ8fNU0AE8Nux.jpg:large
https://twitter.com/HfxPartnership/s...03136038137857

Transatlantic treks between Europe and the Americas

http://www.anna.aero/wp-content/uplo.../Graph-1-9.png

http://www.anna.aero/wp-content/uplo.../Graph-2-7.png

http://www.anna.aero/wp-content/uplo.../Graph-3-8.png

Wow look at Paris-Montreal.

Obviously we have nothing to do with each other. :uhh:

Wow look at Paris - Point-a-Pitre.

Those are technically "domestic" flights within the same country though.

Akin to LA-Honolulu or SF-Honolulu.

Yes that is extremely suprising. Even if it's part of the same country, the whole department is still under half a million people...

That doesn't show the Orly flights with Level and Corsair from Montreal.

For what it is demographically and geographically, France is an incredibly centralized, statist unitary country.

As a result tons of the these passengers are part of a huge back and forth between Paris and Martinique/Guadeloupe of "functionaries" and "apparatchiks" managing the affairs of the islands according to the wishes of Paris.

There is an old joke that says that there are islands in the middle of the Pacific where you can't plant a stop sign on a street corner without the approval of a public servant sitting at a desk in Paris.

It's not really that much of a joke.

Add to this the fact that there has been over many decades and continues to be a lot of migration from the Antilles to the Hexagone, and this generates a lot of air traffic as well: visits to family and friends, students flying to and from home, etc.

That's what I was thinking. I had to google where it was.

Yeah, I guess the two outliers or surprises on that list for most people are Pointe-à-Pitre (Guadeloupe) and Fort-de-France (Martinique)...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V60j37-8ZhY

It's worth mentioning how strong TS still is in the transatlantic market. Nearly 100,000 seats/week to/from Europe during the busy summer weeks !

Some of those sun destination can be sustained year round to some extent. I know Faro has a strong ex-pat compliment. The local Faro airport looks more like a convention of discount and tourist charter aircraft than anything else.

Place like Grenoble as odd in the city is easily served from Leon or Geneva by direct bus service from the city centre to respective airports. When I have traveled to Grenoble it has always been through Geneva.

Speaking of Southern Europe. Looks like AC is opening up a new destination today on Rogue. Porto, Portugal. Would love to see Faro opened up.

https://www.dinheirovivo.pt/economia...as-por-semana/

I'm not sure what to expect next summer, but those are all narrow body short haul destinations without lie flat J or full on first like their 789s. If anything that list makes me more doubtful it returns.