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zahav Jun 7, 2018 5:22 AM

I'm sure they will be back in summer, there is certainly still a market there. All airlines areconstantly reseraching loads, traffic, connection stats, capacity, etc. They would'nt have made this decision quickly, they would've been studying the same thing with their other markets and determined that YYC was the most logical to be cut. Below is the list of BA's other seasonal markets from LHR, it is a very small list compared to their year round destinations:

Almeria, Brindisi, Calgary, Chania, Corfu, Faro, Figari, Ibiza, Grenoble, Kefalonia, Kalamata, Menorca, Murcia, Mykonos, Nantes, Olbia, Palermo, Pula, Salzburg, Santorini, Split, Turin, Zakynthos

Basically all sun destinations in the Mediterranean, similar to our Sunwing and Transat destinations in Mexico and Carribean in the winter. YYC certainly doesn't match these other routes, it's a standout and I can see why skeptics think this is a first step to all-out cancellation. But I don't think they will do that, unless WS starts up and really takes over the market, then BA would bow out. It's just a sobering reminder that YYC really isn't an international airport in the global sense. Hainan and KLM are the only international carriers now with year round service,and with AC moving NRT to seasonal, even they only serve 2 overseas destinations.

whywhyzee Jun 7, 2018 11:39 AM

WestJet has a ton of capacity on YYC-Hawaii planned for this winter. Theoretically, they could cut capacity a bit by replacing some of the 767 turns with a max, and go daily to LGW. That would bump them to two dailies total with YYZ-LGW already daily (iirc), and fill in the gaps a bit capacity wise in BA's absence. Year round LFs to Gatwick are mid 90s, so I cant imagine they wouldn't succeed, and yield should still be pretty reasonable.

Cage Jun 7, 2018 3:23 PM

Air Canada and Air China have concluded their JV agreement, implementation has all ready started and will continue for the next year. This will become a big deal for at least YYZ and YVR. YYC and possibly YUL could benefit as well.

I put YUL on the possibility list as they have all ready got service to PEK and PVG, so not much upside beyond larger aircraft. Tighter schedule coordination will help YUL transborder traffic that will not or chooses not to be routed through YYZ and YVR. YUL also has the limiting factor of not being able to handle transit without visa (aka visa waiver) as international and domestic departures are co-mingled.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4256217/a...ina-agreement/

esquire Jun 7, 2018 3:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinus (Post 8211386)
And yet countries like Australia are promoting the growth of both their mid-sized and large cities with a plethira of international flight. There is no growth-stifling hub-and-spoke model there. We are stifling the growth potential of many of our cities for the benefit of others. Very sad.

Australia's airports and Canada's are remarkably similar when it comes to international traffic... int'l is concentrated at their 7 biggest airports with the lion's share going to the 4 biggest and then the three after that getting some basic international service.

In Canada there are about 8 airports that have almost all the international service. (Winnipeg is just below the cutoff for that.) As with Australia, it's the top 4 that have the bulk of those connections, while 5-8 have somewhat marginal international service (YOW, YEG, YQB, YHZ).

Also, in both countries you really have one kingpin that dominates international traffic (YYZ/SYD).

It's hard to envision a scenario where you can fly all over the place non-stop out of smaller airports like YOW, YWG, YQR, etc. Unless you live in YYZ and maybe YVR/YUL, chances are good that you'll be connecting somewhere if you're heading overseas.

YYCguys Jun 7, 2018 4:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whywhyzee (Post 8212881)
WestJet has a ton of capacity on YYC-Hawaii planned for this winter. Theoretically, they could cut capacity a bit by replacing some of the 767 turns with a max, and go daily to LGW. That would bump them to two dailies total with YYZ-LGW already daily (iirc), and fill in the gaps a bit capacity wise in BA's absence. Year round LFs to Gatwick are mid 90s, so I cant imagine they wouldn't succeed, and yield should still be pretty reasonable.

I don’t know WS’s fleet deployment plan for W18/19 but I bet that it would want to capitalize on BA’s absence by doing as you suggest above, with perhaps YEG-OGG going to a MAX?

q12 Jun 7, 2018 10:58 PM

Halifax Stanfield current route map:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfBZ8fNU0AE8Nux.jpg:large
https://twitter.com/HfxPartnership/s...03136038137857

Martin Mtl Jun 8, 2018 1:43 PM

Transatlantic treks between Europe and the Americas

http://www.anna.aero/wp-content/uplo.../Graph-1-9.png

http://www.anna.aero/wp-content/uplo.../Graph-2-7.png

http://www.anna.aero/wp-content/uplo.../Graph-3-8.png

kool maudit Jun 8, 2018 2:14 PM

Wow look at Paris-Montreal.

Acajack Jun 8, 2018 2:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kool maudit (Post 8214464)
Wow look at Paris-Montreal.

Obviously we have nothing to do with each other. :uhh:

Rico Rommheim Jun 8, 2018 3:30 PM

Wow look at Paris - Point-a-Pitre.

Acajack Jun 8, 2018 3:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rico Rommheim (Post 8214577)
Wow look at Paris - Point-a-Pitre.

Those are technically "domestic" flights within the same country though.

Akin to LA-Honolulu or SF-Honolulu.

p_xavier Jun 8, 2018 3:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rico Rommheim (Post 8214577)
Wow look at Paris - Point-a-Pitre.

Yes that is extremely suprising. Even if it's part of the same country, the whole department is still under half a million people...

p_xavier Jun 8, 2018 3:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kool maudit (Post 8214464)
Wow look at Paris-Montreal.

That doesn't show the Orly flights with Level and Corsair from Montreal.

Acajack Jun 8, 2018 5:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d_jeffrey (Post 8214604)
Yes that is extremely suprising. Even if it's part of the same country, the whole department is still under half a million people...

For what it is demographically and geographically, France is an incredibly centralized, statist unitary country.

As a result tons of the these passengers are part of a huge back and forth between Paris and Martinique/Guadeloupe of "functionaries" and "apparatchiks" managing the affairs of the islands according to the wishes of Paris.

There is an old joke that says that there are islands in the middle of the Pacific where you can't plant a stop sign on a street corner without the approval of a public servant sitting at a desk in Paris.

It's not really that much of a joke.

Add to this the fact that there has been over many decades and continues to be a lot of migration from the Antilles to the Hexagone, and this generates a lot of air traffic as well: visits to family and friends, students flying to and from home, etc.

TorontoDrew Jun 8, 2018 6:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rico Rommheim (Post 8214577)
Wow look at Paris - Point-a-Pitre.


That's what I was thinking. I had to google where it was.

Acajack Jun 8, 2018 7:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew (Post 8214836)
That's what I was thinking. I had to google where it was.

Yeah, I guess the two outliers or surprises on that list for most people are Pointe-à-Pitre (Guadeloupe) and Fort-de-France (Martinique)...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V60j37-8ZhY

thenoflyzone Jun 8, 2018 9:51 PM

It's worth mentioning how strong TS still is in the transatlantic market. Nearly 100,000 seats/week to/from Europe during the busy summer weeks !

casper Jun 9, 2018 5:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav (Post 8212823)
I'm sure they will be back in summer, there is certainly still a market there. All airlines areconstantly reseraching loads, traffic, connection stats, capacity, etc. They would'nt have made this decision quickly, they would've been studying the same thing with their other markets and determined that YYC was the most logical to be cut. Below is the list of BA's other seasonal markets from LHR, it is a very small list compared to their year round destinations:

Almeria, Brindisi, Calgary, Chania, Corfu, Faro, Figari, Ibiza, Grenoble, Kefalonia, Kalamata, Menorca, Murcia, Mykonos, Nantes, Olbia, Palermo, Pula, Salzburg, Santorini, Split, Turin, Zakynthos

Basically all sun destinations in the Mediterranean, similar to our Sunwing and Transat destinations in Mexico and Carribean in the winter. YYC certainly doesn't match these other routes, it's a standout and I can see why skeptics think this is a first step to all-out cancellation. But I don't think they will do that, unless WS starts up and really takes over the market, then BA would bow out. It's just a sobering reminder that YYC really isn't an international airport in the global sense. Hainan and KLM are the only international carriers now with year round service,and with AC moving NRT to seasonal, even they only serve 2 overseas destinations.

Some of those sun destination can be sustained year round to some extent. I know Faro has a strong ex-pat compliment. The local Faro airport looks more like a convention of discount and tourist charter aircraft than anything else.

Place like Grenoble as odd in the city is easily served from Leon or Geneva by direct bus service from the city centre to respective airports. When I have traveled to Grenoble it has always been through Geneva.

casper Jun 9, 2018 10:11 PM

Speaking of Southern Europe. Looks like AC is opening up a new destination today on Rogue. Porto, Portugal. Would love to see Faro opened up.

https://www.dinheirovivo.pt/economia...as-por-semana/

LeftCoaster Jun 11, 2018 8:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav (Post 8212823)
I'm sure they will be back in summer, there is certainly still a market there. All airlines areconstantly reseraching loads, traffic, connection stats, capacity, etc. They would'nt have made this decision quickly, they would've been studying the same thing with their other markets and determined that YYC was the most logical to be cut. Below is the list of BA's other seasonal markets from LHR, it is a very small list compared to their year round destinations:

Almeria, Brindisi, Calgary, Chania, Corfu, Faro, Figari, Ibiza, Grenoble, Kefalonia, Kalamata, Menorca, Murcia, Mykonos, Nantes, Olbia, Palermo, Pula, Salzburg, Santorini, Split, Turin, Zakynthos

I'm not sure what to expect next summer, but those are all narrow body short haul destinations without lie flat J or full on first like their 789s. If anything that list makes me more doubtful it returns.


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