Let's debate the return of the NBA to Vancouver next.

Not sure where Statista got its figures from, but according to Hockey Canada those numbers are inaccurate.

Minor hockey in Canada saw its highest number of registrations last year (2018-19) - since at least 2007-08. There were ~644,000 Canadian kids officially registered in minor hockey programs last year - compared to 559,000 in 07-08. I believe over that time there was a slight drop in male registration and increase in female registrations.

According to USA Hockey - they saw their highest ever level of registered players last year with ~568,000.

I agree Hockey can become expensive - especially at tier 1 or academy levels (which only ~15% play at) - but its a bit overblown when it comes to putting a kid in 'house' or lower tier hockey - which is still competitive and has opportunities for development. Many activities such as Dance and Karate can cost more per year - I shit you not. I had one boy in hockey (Tier 3 Pee Wee) and one in Karate last year. End of the year totals: Hockey = $1600 & Karate = $2500. The monthly Dojo fees can be quite high. Now, I could have bought used skates for my hockey kid instead of new - and saved $250 form the hockey total.

Just looking back in time - when I was a kid going to elementary and Jr. high in the 80s, few kids in my classes actually played organized hockey - most played football, baseball and soccer. As far as diversity goes - anecdotally one thing I've noticed during tournaments the past few years - is that some minor teams from the BC Lower Mainland now have half their roster made up of players of Asian decent :tup: This is great!


https://cdn.agilitycms.com/hockey-ca...l-report-e.pdf

https://www.usahockey.com/membershipstats

Note that USA hockey includes registered adult players too, Hockey Canada stats include just registered minor players.

Eh, what's there to talk about otherwise?

The Expos coming back to Montreal?
The Nordiques coming back to Quebec City?

I don't see much of a business case for any of the big-4 major sports leagues expanding in Canada in the near future. If an Eastern US NHL team comes perilously close to folding, Quebec City may fall ass-backwards into an NHL team (like Winnipeg did with the Atlanta Thrashers), but otherwise the deck is stacked too much against it.

If you had to put money on one of these scenarios to be true as of January 1, 2025, which one would it be?

1. Quebec gets a NHL team
2. Montreal gets a MLB team
3. Halifax gets a CFL team
4. Vancouver gets a NBA team
5. Toronto gets a NFL team

I wouldn't say any of those are likely scenarios, but at the same time I wouldn't say that any of them are totally impossible either. If the dollar were to somehow creep up closer to par, it's possible we could see a couple of those scenarios play out.

This is inner-circle talk (of which I'm not apart of - but it's about who you know). To be fair, it's not just the NFL (and certainly not ALL of the NFL - just a few of the key "players")... it's the business world in general. Toronto has been "advertising" their diversity for a while in all facets on Bay St. to attract more investment. It's been an area of concentration for investment bankers for over the last decade. The pleasant surprise is that overnight something as trivial as the Raptors playoff run has pushed Toronto's multicultural diversity to the forefront and people are taking notice more now.

I think the CFL is the only one that is feasible in that timeframe. I'd say MLB to Montreal is the most likely overall, but I don't think it'll happen by 2025. The other ones are complete pipedreams unfortunately.

It's not about attracting the current white football fanbase, it's about targeting a city in which is represented by MANY different cultures in high numbers. Some current NFL cities are very diverse as well, but a good chunk are just white AF. Which is why 80%+ of the fanbase is white. Targeting a multicultural city like Toronto kills many birds with one stone. And this growing diverse fanbase isn't just restricted to the city. It's a domino effect.

1 and 3, probably.

Why?

1. If the NHL needs a quick transfer for a failing NHL team (*looks at Carolina*), Quebec City looks to be the best choice. A capable arena, a corporate sponsor with deep pockets and a built-in audience that will probably fill the place for a few years for the novelty factor alone, even if the team is terrible.

3. The CFL has nowhere else to go and the cost of getting in isn't prohibitive. So, yeah, if someone with moderately deep pockets wanted to fund it, I could see the CFL going to Halifax provided the city came up with some money for a modest stadium.

-----

Against:

2. Montreal would need a new baseball stadium, as Olympic Stadium wouldn't cut the mustard. That's a $500+ million cost there. Given that the MLB is struggling in smaller US markets as the payroll gap between competitive teams and the rest of them is a huge gulf, I'm not sure how long someone would subsidize losses in Montreal or alternately, how long interest would last for a mediocre, but cheap payroll team would last.

4. The failure of the Grizzlies still rings large, but this actually might be possible. I don't know if the NBA wants to take that gamble though - they seem to do OK in secondary US markets, so they have some choices before Vancouver comes up again.

5. The billionaire owner who is going to build the billion-dollar stadium leaves the NFL in Toronto at the bottom of my potential list. The NFL won't allow corporate owners (except grandfathered ones) and the Province of Ontario won't give a sweetheart deal for a new football-only stadium like they did with Skydome. Given the iffy local support and it's dead in the water.

I'm sorry, but the idea that the NFL is intrigued by the idea of a team in Toronto specifically to attract non-white fans seems utterly laughable.

Given that the facilities exist for 1 and 4, you would have to think that alone gives them a leg up on the others. Although as you point out, building a CFL stadium to realize 3 would not come at that exorbitant a price.

As laughable as playing games in Mexico to attract the Hispanic fanbase, or in England to attract fans in Europe? It's about growing the game, and the NFL is pretty much maxed out within the US.

In any case, it doesn't mean a team in Toronto will happen. It may never come to fruition - but it's certainly something that's being looked at.

Not sure about the Expos happening... Quebec in the NHL is dead... and the CFL in Halifax isn't going to happen.

Back on topic... the wildcard round was very entertaining this past weekend - can't wait for this weekends games of high-powered teams battling it out.

All of them seem completely long shot.
Wild card Quebec getting an NHL team only if an American team were to come up for grabs and if & only if no other American city like Kansas City, Oklahoma City, Seattle or Hartford, etc etc, wanted it first.

Montreal was averaging 9,000 people per game for years before Expos folded, MLB coming back seems like a huge risk even if they had a stadium.

Halifax got it's first high-exposure pro sports team to call the city home last year, but they have only been averaging less than 6,000 spectators per game in a league that averages ~10,000 (Saskatoon averaged it's first season twice as many as Halifax). Once the novelty of having a NLL team wears off in Halifax, hard to know how the team will do. I think this would give an idea of how the CFL would look in Halifax. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_H...erbirds_season

Vancouver getting a NBA team back seems most plausible, but again there's dozens of American cities that would be given first dibs before NBA tries Vancouver again.

Reason for Toronto never getting an NFL team can be summed up in one word, the Argos. It just looks bad when the city can barely hold onto a pro football team as it is, but for Toronto to build a stadium & be able to have money for a team and attract spectators seems unviable in NFL's eyes.

Had Toronto centric sports media built up the Argos to a highly respectable & well regarded team, even though they play in only the second biggest pro gridiron football league in the World, The Canadian sports media could be making huge profits promoting a Toronto NFL team as "Canada's Only Football Team".

How are they going to attract diverse fans if they're already unable to do so in cities that are far more enthusiastic about the game? What makes Toronto more special than Miami or Houston?

Canadians who watched the Grey cup in 2019, an average audience of 3.9 million viewers. +10% from previous year.

Canadians who watched the Superbowl in 2019, an average audience of 4.33 million viewers. - 18.7% from previous year.

That's still 400,039 thousand more pathetic Canadian's wanting to be American according to a few people on this site.


These numbers only represent Canadian networks so it could be assumed many more watched the Superbowl on American networks. More pathetic wannabe American's who hate Canada.

4.

1) NHL has bigger fish to fry and Quebec is not appealing for NHLPA.
2) MLB has bigger fish to fry, although it's my runner-up here.
3) CFL has more important things to worry about and i'm not convinced on the financing of the stadium/team.
4) Makes a lot of sense once Seattle gets its NHL/NBA teams.
5) London and Mexico City are ahead of Toronto, IMO.

The Super Bowl in 2015 had 8.26M on CTV when they had American commercials simulcast so...Super Bowl figures are usually north of 7M on Canadian TV if you include those that prefer to watch with American commercials. We're at the point where the Super Bowl audience in Canada is twice that of the Grey Cup.

All of the growth is in female registration. Male registration has declined the past five/six years.

Those numbers also don't count bars packed with people watching the Super Bowl, compared to bars not packed to watch the Grey Cup.

I think that Seattle, with it's completely renovated former arena, is ahead of Vancouver and once that happens, Vancouver won't get a team.

In that case, we don't need a new football stadium, it already exists. We need a new baseball stadium for the Jays (they need one anyway) and the Rogers Centre and it's 53,000 football seats becomes the NFL Toronto home.

Having a flashy new stadium to sell at step prices is normally part of the NFL's playbook in new markets... Can the 1980s-era Skydome pull that off? Assuming Toronto were to land a team and have it play there, it would be one of the oldest stadiums in the league right on day one.

I don't know if that's true. Vancouver got the Grizzlies at a time when the Sonics were still around, although admittedly that was part of the league's big push into an international market and not just a one-off relocation/expansion. Vancouver would definitely be behind Seattle for the next team, but after that I'd say Vancouver has a shot.

MLS certainly has a vibrant three-way rivalry between Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver. I think something similar would be attractive to the NBA if they ever did decide to expand. There's enough people and corporate dollars to go around.

It would also be the smallest in the league. Once the Raiders move to Vegas, the next smallest would be Soldier Field at 61K. Hard to imagine that ever working, but the NFL faithful in this thread are committed to the dream.

I'm just going with the suggestion I replied to that they don't need more than 50k or so. Not only do I not think Toronto is even on the radar for a team, but I also think that if they did get one, they would build a new, bigger stadium. But if the idea is they don't need one as big, then they might as well renovate the dome, which already has all the amenities and location, and build a new baseball stadium. Since I also think it would be the same people involved because who else?

Uhhh, already happened and they payed huge expansion fee for it.

For the last time, it was a hypothetical situation to make a specific point. Whether it's going to be implemented is irrelevant.

I'm not sure that you do. Open systems of association clubs have had no problem growing and becoming among the biggest leagues in the world. The closed franchise system is one way of growing but not necessarily the best.

But that's kind of beside the point. The reason I brought it up in the first place is to show that the NHL doesn't put teams where the demand is, it puts teams where it wants demand to be. The former would result in more teams in Canada than it has.

Nobody is proposing putting teams in random small towns. Your reliance on flimsy straw men doesn't strengthen your point.

I think Vancouver makes a lot of sense regardless of whether or not Seattle also has a team. Having them both play off of each other is only a benefit, not just in the NBA but in any league (NHL, MLS).

Going to agree with esquire on this one - Rogers Centre won't be hosting an NFL team. If it's not up to par for an MLB team it definitely isn't for an NFL team.

The NHL places franchises where it thinks it can maximize growth potential. The NHL doesn't operate any differently than any other franchise sport in this regard, really; they're mostly just looking at market size numbers, income trends, and general demographics, as well as corporate support. Canadian markets typically fall further back in line when compared to American counerparts.

There's pros and cons to both systems but the association promotion/relegation system is not without its flaws, either. How competitive has France's Ligue 1 been since PSG was injected with Qatari money? A franchise system would tie this in with a salary cap, and although it would limit and hold back PSG it would create a more competitive league on the whole for the rest of France. It would also create a better league on the whole rather than having one big fish in one small pond.

An NHL with promotion/relegation, with potentially more Canadian clubs, would be a smaller, less-internationally reputable league than it is today because it would lack the financing that American growth has brought to it. Franchise model effectively led the NHL to the world-leader status it is today for ice hockey. So yes, pro/rel would lead to a more Canadian NHL, but it would also be a worse quality than it is today.

Vancouver is absolutely on the NBA's radar. However, the cost of a team requires an ownership group with deep pockets. Maybe Northland Properties would be interested, and they likely have the deep pockets - but if they did it they would need to build a brand new ~$500 million arena in metro Vancouver for the team. If AIG did it they already own Rogers Arena/Canucks, but not sure if they have the pockets.

Seattle and Vegas are desired NBA front runners tho - with expansion or team relocation. Vancouver is a solid third to pick up more Canadian market...San Diego just doesn't seem to make things work.

^ The best and I daresay only chance at making the NBA work in Vancouver is without having to bear the cost of a new arena on that extremely pricy land.

When a measly little White Spot sells for a quarter of a billion, the only way you can make the budget work on a new arena is if you build it out in Langley.

I know, and that is a huge catch with any NBA dreams in Vancouver without AIG doing it. Not sure how much land Northland already owns downtown - several individual lots - but not sure if they would have enough contiguous space.

I already replied that I didn't agree with your earlier assessment about the 50k stadium. I'm just saying if that was what the number was, the Rogers Centre would work. Not throw open the gates tomorrow ready, but after a significant renovation after the Jays had left to another park. Without the need for the rotating seating on the 100 level for the conversion between football to baseball, that entire level could be gutted and refit with permanent football seating. Revamping of the suites and lounges, along with updating the football media area, and converting the baseball media area to suites. It's not about it being up to par for baseball compared to football, it's overbuilt for what baseball is now.

But as I said, the NFL wouldn't even give Toronto a sniff if they talked about 50,000 seats.

Boy is this ever true. Now that the Chargers are gone, SD is the largest city and metro in the US (by far) without an NFL team, NHL team, or NBA team (save for Seattle).

Not the city's fault at all....Spanos held the city hostage for a new stadium....they called his bluff. But with the new stadium literally an HOUR up the I-5 - not a huge problem. With only Camp Pendleton as a separation between LA and SD....it's pratically one huge metropolis.

How much do you think Rogers Centre would need in renovation to bring it up to standard? $100M? $250M? May as well build-to-suit once you start getting around those numbers. Rogers Centre is not a good venue for most anything these days.

I think they would considering where sports attendances, in particular the NFL's, are going these days. The NFL isn't exactly building 100K stadiums every other year...the new Vegas stadium is 65K and the new LA stadium will be 70K. Miami lopped 9K seats out of HardRock when it was renovated in 2015. Although nothing is official yet it seems likely that the Redskins will downgrade from the 80K at FedExField with their new stadium. Three teams drew around ~50K in 2019 (not including LA). Minnesota and Atlanta are filling their new ~70K stadiums but both NY teams are off the mark in the 82K MetLife. If you're building a new stadium in the 2020s you'd be better off maximizing suites and private areas for higher-spenders at the expense of adding 20K additional seats into the building.

At the end of the day Toronto likely won't be getting an NFL team so this conversation is moot regardless.

Spanos gambled on getting closer to LA, but he's losing the bet as most LA fans have backed the Rams. He also lost many San Diego fans as well. I think he shoulda rebranded them the California Chargers instead of LA. I wouldn't be surprised if he moves them once again though.

It was nice to see San Diego council hold their ground. For that matter, Oakland as well. Refreshing to see some places not cater to demands. Too bad they lost their football teams because of it. I wonder how citizens feel.

The bigger the city the less sports teams matter because there are simply so many other things to do and they are way less central to the city's profile and identity.

To most other places, losing a NFL team would be a devastating blow. But when it happened to them in the 90s, LA collectively shrugged its shoulders and kept doing its thing.

Plus LA still had two major CFB teams. One of which went on to win two NCs so that helps.

That's one of the nice things if you're a sports fan and you live in a medium sized US city and you don't have a team in each of the major sports. You usually have a serious college team or other pro city nearby that helps to fill the void. Examples:

- Pitt basketball
- Univ. of STL basketball and Mizzou fball & bball
- KC has KU, KSU and Wichita St. bball
- SD all of LA teams
- San Antonio has UT football or Astros baseball
- SEA has UW basketball
- Salt Lake has Univ. of Utah fball
- NOLA lacks baseball but nearby LSU in Baton Rouge leads the nation in baseball attendance.
- ORL has either Tampa NFL or UCF football, which as of the last 3 years has been great. And Rays baseball and Lightning hockey. Conversely, Tampa has Orlando Magic for their basketball fix or USF basketball at home.
- BAL has DC.
- Columbus has Cleveland and Cincy and vice versa
- A big exception is Charlotte, which is quite a ways from any major baseball.

In Canada, TO has the Bills, SWO has DET and UM & MSU, VAN has SEA, OTT has Syracuse football and basketball for a manageable day trip or fairly cheap overnight in the Syracuse area.

Does any football fan in Ottawa seriously consider Syracuse University when they have the RedBlacks.... not to mention 2 college football teams of their own. There were 25,000 at this year's Panda Game, for instance.

I realize I'm in the minority but as a Torntonian an excursion to Hamilton for football has always held more appeal than one to Buffalo. I've only made 4 Hamilton football (3 times for the Ti-Cats, once for MAC) trips but zero to Buffalo.

I only talk to two people from Ottawa so I’m not the best source for it but one of the guys has gone down to watch cuse bball a few times. That’s a bigger deal than fball but for the occasional big game at the carrier dome like Clemson or FSU I imagine there’s quite a few Ottawa people. I overheard one guy says he’s from Canada when I was lining up to get in.

College fball is a way different experience than redblacks or panda game. Different rules, dimensions, atmosphere and inside vs outside. I imagine a football fan in general would want to do all three. You might be the exception unless you’re just a fan of the Canadian game.

My experiences in Hamilton and buffalo were about equal for me. So was cuse. They all brought something different to the table for me.

^ For Winnipeg, the only US college team that people might be familiar with is UND's formidable hockey team. Beyond that no one really pays attention to ND State's football team, or the increasingly competitive Minnesota football team.

NCAA sports just aren't part of the culture here... Minnesota's pro teams attract a decent amount of attention, the Vikings in particular. But the college teams in MN and ND barely register.

It's the worst kept secret in hockey that the NHL prioritizes American expansion. Their record on "growing the game" is spotty at best, with more failures than successes.

The NHL isn't the dominant hockey league because of how it's structured, it's the dominant hockey league because its market is huge (even if there aren't that may fans in the US) and rich. No other league has that. There's no evidence that a different structure would make it any less dominant.

I've never heard of anyone heading down to Syracuse from Ottawa for NCAA.

And the Panda Game is less 25K gridiron fans and more 25K rowdy university students looking to drink and yell. You go to any other USports gridiron game in Ottawa and there's much less of a crowd. Hell, Ottawa has two of the best USports basketball teams in Canada and nobody goes to those games, either.

I think I know five people who are Bills STHs in Toronto and none of them ever consider going to Hamilton for CFL.

What are the failures aside from Atlanta? All of the other expansion teams in the "sunbelt" are still operating today, many of them quite successfully.

The NHL's growing the game initiative has absolutely been a success. If you told someone in 2000 that NHL fans from Nashville and Dallas would fill the Cotton Bowl nobody would have believed you. If you told someone in 2000 that the best player on the Leafs would be half-Mexican and from Arizona nobody would have believed you. Yet here we are.

There's more potential growth in American expansion than Canadian expansion. Any expansion to Canadian markets currently is carving up currently existing team markets. Quebec City does not provide growth for the NHL moving forward like a Houston or Seattle does.

December 31, 2019:
Canada & Czechs - 1.42M
Leafs & Wild - 1.02M
Raps & Cavs - 510K

January 6, 2020:
TSN - Leafs & Oilers - 799K
SNWest - Leafs & Oilers - 312K

January 8, 2020:
SN - Leafs & Jets - 1.232M
SN1 - Raps & Hornets - 453K

Numbers courtesy Bill Brioux on Twitter.

Raptors has the best chance out of any canadian team from major league sport to win championship and nobody is watching them

A few weeks back, Pollstar released their top 200 arenas worldwide (tickets sold for non-sporting events). Canadian cities below:

10. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto - 827,480
30. Bell Centre, Montreal - 592,588
45. Rogers Arena, Vancouver - 447,906
64. Rogers Place, Edmonton - 333,404
74. Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg - 280,960
92. Centre Videotron, Quebec City - 241,559
98. Budweiser Gardens, London - 223, 208
99. Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa - 222,768
118. SaskTel Centre, Saskatoon - 158, 852
131. Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary - 127,482
141. FirstOntario Centre, Hamilton - 110, 224
144. Place Bell, Laval - 104,725
158. Abbotsford Centre, Abbotsford - 91,169
180. Avenir Centre, Moncton - 66,527
199. P.N.E. Pacific Coliseum, Vancouver - 55,598
200. Scotiabank Centre, Halifax - 54, 873

https://www.pollstar.com/Chart/2019/...Arenas_797.pdf

Sounds a lot like, less soccer fans rather, rowdy fans that go to soccer games to drink, dance, jump, sing and yell. I can see why soccer games, specifically MLS in Canada, get crowds like they do, because the whole atmosphere is entertaining, not necessarily the game itself. I think tv ratings would back that argument up as well.

Scotiabank Arena is operating pretty much at max capacity. There's been talks that the concert schedule is having a detrimental affect on the ice quality as well.

The city could probably support an independent dedicated concert venue somewhere further North near Markham. That would also be the best avenue for a possible second NHL team to actually enter the market if you believe the talks that inevitably come up every few years.

Well, we sure watched them during the playoffs last year. Game 6 of the finals stands as the most watched sporting event in Canada for 2019, ahead of the Superbowl and Stanley Cup final. My household watched! But yeah, it would seem mostly band wagon jumpers/

https://www.raptorshq.com/2019/6/15/...evision-record


I have a question regarding the Super Bowl ratings - when I look at Numeris data - its seems to me that 4.35 million watched on CTV AND 1.18 million watched on TSN. Plus of course the ones who watched on US networks which were not picked up. I often see 4.35 million quoted for a number - should it not be 5.53 million?

One late 40ish guy I talked to in the supporter's section where the Red Patch Boys sit told me he's not even a soccer fan but has single seat season tix because he loves jumping around being rowdy with the other guys. I'm sure he's developed some liking to the game since, but he's mostly in it for the good times. At the game and before at the pub and the march down to the stadium while signing all the chants.

Not being from the area, I don’t think you realize 1) how bad traffic can be (definitely not an hour from metro SD to Inglewood) and 2) what a slap in the face moving the Chargers from SD to LA is to people. It may seem like one giant urban area to outsiders (and in many ways it’s true) but to many people it’s city vs city and moving to LA was and is unforgivable. Best analogy would be moving a the Eagles from Philly to NYC. People would go crazy. Fortunately (or unfortunately) for Spanos and the Chargers, people in SoCal just don’t care as much about their teams (not to say SD didn’t well support the Chargers for 50 years).

But then you open the link to see the arenas above it, and somehow Madison Square Garden managed to have more than double what Scotiabank has and it also hosts an NHL and NBA team. Even Staples Center was only 100,000 behind Scotiabank and it hosts NHL and 2 NBA teams.

Both MSG and Staples have mammoth operational capacity that Scotiabank Arena lacks. Staples was built from the start with the goal of becoming the top arena, and has a mammoth sub-level and event level. Scotiabank Arena due to its site and the hodgepodge plan to pivot last minute to hockey and basketball hinder it's abilities. For example, Staples can easily run, and has run, 4-5 events PER DAY. They can easily run all types of events with quick turnaround as they have the systems to do so. Scotiabank Arena squeezes the absolute max it can out of that facility.

The teams that lose the most money are, for the most part, American sunbelt teams. Florida, Arizona, Carolina, etc.

I'm not sure why you're resisting what I'm saying so much. This information is common knowledge and easy to find online. Why so down on your own country having more than a measly 7 teams?

It's been a success by absolute numbers, but every league has grown just as much and in many cases more in the same timespan. All the NHL has done kept pace with the trends that have affected the entire professional sports industry. It hasn't gained any ground on leagues like the NBA and NFL, if anything it's lost ground. So the growing the game initiative has been a flop relative to other leagues.