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wave46 Feb 13, 2021 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LO 044 (Post 9189959)
Air Canada, WestJet and Sunwing fly 737 Max aircraft. If you want to fly to/from Canada you will have little choice.

There's another thing. People tend to forget and/or move on and on top of that the world is much more selfish than it used to be. As long as there is a flight to Miami or Cancun available, people will go. The pandemic will actually help the 737 Max because so many people want to go on vacation and will fly a Tupolev 154 if necessary let alone a 737 Max.

For all the furor in the comments sections, most don't care about the airplane they're on. The 737 MAX will be yet another 737 at the end of the day.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to fly on a properly preserved Tupolev 154. The ol' flying Commie tank with fuel efficiency to match. I like airplanes though.

wave46 Feb 13, 2021 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9190444)
The screaming ironically would have been way louder had “les anglais de l’ouest” taken over TS. With AC, it keeps everything “chez nous”.

AC removing TS as a competitor, opens up opportunities for Flair, Nolinor’s OWG, Jetlines, now that Global X’s launch appears imminent and (dare I say it) WS. WS whine about it, yet 3 years ago pulled out of YUL-sun routes and vastly reduced everything non-YYZ to the sun. How is that AC’s fault?

AC's not 'at fault' per se. They're making a solid strategic move from their point of view. Westjet's more 'at fault' for not recognizing a strategic opportunity and seizing it. The government's at fault for letting AC monopolize an airport that previously had more competition.

I'm complaining from a consumer point of view. It's like our major banks wanting to merge in the early 2000s. Great for them! Sucks for us! The government saw it for what it was - consolidation and reduction of competition and squashed it. Rightly so IMO, given that Canadian banks are a quasi-oligopoly already.

The problem with fortress hubs is that the tendency to monopolistic practices runs high. Squishing newcomers becomes a past-time. I don't have any loyalty to an airline, so my bias stays firmly in the 'I want competition' opinion.

If the folks in Montreal like high fares, good for them I guess.

LO 044 Feb 15, 2021 3:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9190444)
The AC of old tried those tricks, fully agreed, but let’s be clear, CP was forced upon AC. Would have been way cheaper for AC to have let CP go under and then pick the carcass (namely the LHR slots and Asian routes). Rouge was never created to put the likes of Flair out of business.

AC removing TS as a competitor, opens up opportunities for Flair, Nolinor’s OWG, Jetlines, now that Global X’s launch appears imminent and (dare I say it) WS. WS whine about it, yet 3 years ago pulled out of YUL-sun routes and vastly reduced everything non-YYZ to the sun. How is that AC’s fault?

Was CP really forced upon AC? From my memory AC couldn't care less about CP until American Airlines wanted to purchase CP and then AC got scared. I believe AMR was a powerhouse relative to AC at that time.

I don't think you understand how much of a power house AC is. Trying to break into the YUL market let alone the YYZ market is futile that is why no one has done it. To think that Flair could ever compete with AC, you must be joking. And Nolinor? This is essentially a charter / cargo airline. You think Nolinour will fly from Montreal to Marseille?

There is in my opinion some airlines that could compete with AC and that is Delta, United and American. But AC would cry foul that they're not Canadian. Who cares? What AC (and WS) currently have is protectionist capitalism or a duopoly. If a foreign carrier wants to fly only YYZ-YVR, let them. There is no requirement for AC to fly to Goose Bay or Grande Prairie, they just cry that they have to. In fact there was a mountain load of money made on these routes until WS arrived.

On the flip side i don't think it is fair for AC to have to keep head offices open in Montreal or some kind of crew base in Winnipeg. The airline industry is a strange one.

Similar to wave46 i fly with whomever provides the best price, service, schedule etc. for a specific flight. I lean to AC because i fly to Europe mostly. And again to wave46's points, enjoy those high prices out east.

nname Feb 15, 2021 4:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LO 044 (Post 9191152)
Was CP really forced upon AC? From my memory AC couldn't care less about CP until American Airlines wanted to purchase CP and then AC got scared. I believe AMR was a powerhouse relative to AC at that time.

If my memory is correct, the Onex/AA bid was deemed illegal in Quebec court, so AA withdrew their offer.

casper Feb 15, 2021 5:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LO 044 (Post 9191152)
Was CP really forced upon AC? From my memory AC couldn't care less about CP until American Airlines wanted to purchase CP and then AC got scared. I believe AMR was a powerhouse relative to AC at that time.

I don't think you understand how much of a power house AC is. Trying to break into the YUL market let alone the YYZ market is futile that is why no one has done it. To think that Flair could ever compete with AC, you must be joking. And Nolinor? This is essentially a charter / cargo airline. You think Nolinour will fly from Montreal to Marseille?

....

When CP and AC were competing with each other my regular routes were YVR - YYZ, YVR-YOW, YOW-LHR, YOW-YYZ. Basically on every route there is was an AC and CP flight leaving within 10 minutes of each other. In many cases half full.

The reality is both airlines were focused on capturing each others customers domestically. AC had better service into Europe and CP had better covering into Asia.

Nolinour new airline is ignoring AC. They are basically working off deals with packaged tour operators. If a tour operator came to them and wanted to fly to Marseille or Lisbon once or twice a week during the summer they would likely go after that business. They are not trying to seat on the airlines. They are trying to sell the entire flight.

hemustbeaboss Feb 15, 2021 2:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stephan.richard (Post 9189693)
I agree with you on this. Living in the east coast we are so used to getting screwed over by airlines. If WestJet had eastern Canada’s interest at heart we would still have flights out of New Brunswick and PEI. And WestJet should’ve put a bid to buy Transat but they didn’t have time. In Canada the big two are so afraid that a competitor cuts their market share.
I applaud carriers like Flair(Canada’s version of Spirit Airlines], Nolinor, Porter to try to bring some competition. And I think we should start allowing Spirit, Aligeant, Southwest, and Frontier fair access to the Canadian market to increase competition on many routes including flights to sun destinations and probably opening up new markets.

All those airlines have opportunities to fly from YHZ YQM YYT YFC YSJ to the States, however they choose not to.

Same with Westjet/AC/Flair/every Canadian airline, but again they choose not to.

Not enough traffic, absurd airport fees, and high Nav Canada fees are just part of it.

Until the Atlantic bubble is dead, any airline would be stupid to begin service out east (I'm looking at you Flair)

wave46 Feb 15, 2021 2:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 9191168)
If my memory is correct, the Onex/AA bid was deemed illegal in Quebec court, so AA withdrew their offer.

I think the Onex/AA bid exceeded the foreign ownership limit, hence it was considered illegal. In retrospect, this was probably the best thing that could have happened to Onex/AA.

Anyway, the Liberal government of the day strongly encouraged AC to take over Canadian to prevent a disorderly collapse. AC learned how rough Canadian's finances were the hard way. This, combined with 9/11 causing a slump in travel demand forced it into creditor protection.

The ensuing problems at AC allowed Westjet to flourish.

None of this convinces me that letting AC buy out Air Transat is a good idea. Transat wasn't on the brink of collapse, like Canadian. The looks - to my uninformed eye - as a gambit by AC to prevent Onex/Westjet from gaining a foothold in the Quebec market. Hence, my anti-merger stance.

ACT7 Feb 15, 2021 10:36 PM

Interesting timing, but at least some good news for a change.

Quote:

Biman Bangladesh Airlines is going to operate flights on three new destinations -- Toronto, Tokyo and Chennai -- from March.
https://www.thedailystar.net/travel/...iation-2045245

Dominion301 Feb 16, 2021 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LO 044 (Post 9191152)
Was CP really forced upon AC? From my memory AC couldn't care less about CP until American Airlines wanted to purchase CP and then AC got scared. I believe AMR was a powerhouse relative to AC at that time.

I don't think you understand how much of a power house AC is. Trying to break into the YUL market let alone the YYZ market is futile that is why no one has done it. To think that Flair could ever compete with AC, you must be joking. And Nolinor? This is essentially a charter / cargo airline. You think Nolinour will fly from Montreal to Marseille?

There is in my opinion some airlines that could compete with AC and that is Delta, United and American. But AC would cry foul that they're not Canadian. Who cares? What AC (and WS) currently have is protectionist capitalism or a duopoly. If a foreign carrier wants to fly only YYZ-YVR, let them. There is no requirement for AC to fly to Goose Bay or Grande Prairie, they just cry that they have to. In fact there was a mountain load of money made on these routes until WS arrived.

On the flip side i don't think it is fair for AC to have to keep head offices open in Montreal or some kind of crew base in Winnipeg. The airline industry is a strange one.

Similar to wave46 i fly with whomever provides the best price, service, schedule etc. for a specific flight. I lean to AC because i fly to Europe mostly. And again to wave46's points, enjoy those high prices out east.

Like wave46 said, the government “encouraged” AC to buy CP - in other words, you better buy CP or we’ll make your life a living hell. CP were days away from liquidation and seeing the 2nd biggest airline (and the dominant airline in AB & BC) strand tens of thousands of people would have been embarrassing for the government du jour.

I understand perfectly well how strong AC are in the east and how much stronger TS will make AC in YUL. However, TS outside of YUL, YYZ and YQB were incredibly weak. If anything, the “new TS by AC” with their A321LRs is perfectly suited to open new route opportunities such as YOW-CDG. YOW’s a market independent TS had virtually no interest in...yet AC’s strength (in normal times) would almost certainly see AC launch such a route seasonally.

None of the airlines I listed will push AC out of their dominant position, but the small players will have a niche at YUL, especially on sun routes and maybe Europe too with the new generation of narrowbodies. Take WS for example who are incredibly weak at YOW (and even weaker at YUL) compared with YHZ or YWG. If it weren’t for the MAX grounding AND Covid-19, WS were going to launch summer 2020 3x weekly 7M8 YOW-LGW. Just like when AC acquired CP’s market share, new entrants will emerge. The properly run ones will grab a piece (Flair, OWG) or a bit bigger piece (WS, WG) of the pie.

whatnext Feb 16, 2021 3:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wave46 (Post 9191263)
I think the Onex/AA bid exceeded the foreign ownership limit, hence it was considered illegal. In retrospect, this was probably the best thing that could have happened to Onex/AA.

Anyway, the Liberal government of the day strongly encouraged AC to take over Canadian to prevent a disorderly collapse. AC learned how rough Canadian's finances were the hard way. This, combined with 9/11 causing a slump in travel demand forced it into creditor protection.

The ensuing problems at AC allowed Westjet to flourish.

None of this convinces me that letting AC buy out Air Transat is a good idea. Transat wasn't on the brink of collapse, like Canadian. The looks - to my uninformed eye - as a gambit by AC to prevent Onex/Westjet from gaining a foothold in the Quebec market. Hence, my anti-merger stance.

Worth remembering right now, CP’s rough finances were bad for AC but it was the SARS pandemic in 2003 that ultimately pushed AC into bankruptcy.

LO 044 Feb 16, 2021 4:16 PM

Well at least there's something else to talk about during Covid...

Transat plummets with Air Canada takeover now in jeopardy
https://financialpost.com/transporta...er-in-jeopardy

Air Canada, Transat deal on thin ice as deadline lapses

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/air-cana...pses-1.1564135

Not sure if this is a ploy by AC to lower the price or to simply walk away. Basically this is a free get out of jail card for AC. Do they really need TS? Especially in the next couple of years?

whatnext Feb 16, 2021 6:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LO 044 (Post 9192090)
Well at least there's something else to talk about during Covid...

Transat plummets with Air Canada takeover now in jeopardy
https://financialpost.com/transporta...er-in-jeopardy

Air Canada, Transat deal on thin ice as deadline lapses

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/air-cana...pses-1.1564135

Not sure if this is a ploy by AC to lower the price or to simply walk away. Basically this is a free get out of jail card for AC. Do they really need TS? Especially in the next couple of years?

This is the EU's fault. They haven't made their ruling. I'm not sure why the Trudeau gov't isn't pushing them on this but then again, their handling of the transportation file during Covid has been abysmal.

LO 044 Feb 16, 2021 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext (Post 9192264)
This is the EU's fault. They haven't made their ruling. I'm not sure why the Trudeau gov't isn't pushing them on this but then again, their handling of the transportation file during Covid has been abysmal.

I think the EU let alone the world has more important things to worry about than the fortune of Air Transat. TS is the only one this hurts. AC is happy. Consumers from the east are happy. TS will probably now get an offer from WestJet or Sunwing albeit a much lower one. I'm sure TS is not the only company that this has happened to. Timing is everything. And even if TS does not get an offer, Uncle Trudeau will come to the rescue. After all there will be an election soon.

whatnext Feb 16, 2021 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LO 044 (Post 9192560)
I think the EU let alone the world has more important things to worry about than the fortune of Air Transat. TS is the only one this hurts. AC is happy. Consumers from the east are happy. TS will probably now get an offer from WestJet or Sunwing albeit a much lower one. I'm sure TS is not the only company that this has happened to. Timing is everything. And even if TS does not get an offer, Uncle Trudeau will come to the rescue. After all there will be an election soon.

Then the EU shouldn't have insisted on a review. Given the amount of EU carriers able to serve Canada there is zero legitimate concern that poor little Transat disappearing was going to cause some massive void in the market.

Truenorth00 Feb 16, 2021 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext (Post 9192571)
Then the EU shouldn't have insisted on a review. Given the amount of EU carriers able to serve Canada there is zero legitimate concern that poor little Transat disappearing was going to cause some massive void in the market.

Not so much a void as giving Air Canada substantial dominance at several airports in Canada and making the combined airline the largest trans-Atlantic Carrier, ahead of any American or European carrier.

I think it's all laughable given the JVs they are allowing, forming basically an oligopoly. But that is ostensibly the reason for their concern.

LO 044 Feb 16, 2021 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext (Post 9192571)
Then the EU shouldn't have insisted on a review. Given the amount of EU carriers able to serve Canada there is zero legitimate concern that poor little Transat disappearing was going to cause some massive void in the market.

It is in their right to review and take whatever time they need just like it's Transport Canada's prerogative to take as much as they need to approve the 737 Max. Are you an employee of TS?

wave46 Feb 17, 2021 12:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truenorth00 (Post 9192594)
Not so much a void as giving Air Canada substantial dominance at several airports in Canada and making the combined airline the largest trans-Atlantic Carrier, ahead of any American or European carrier.

I think it's all laughable given the JVs they are allowing, forming basically an oligopoly. But that is ostensibly the reason for their concern.

There's a theory that if not for the national laws prohibiting cabotage by foreign carriers, many airlines would have already merged into a super-global airline along the lines of the airline alliances we see today.

whatnext Feb 17, 2021 1:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LO 044 (Post 9192603)
It is in their right to review and take whatever time they need just like it's Transport Canada's prerogative to take as much as they need to approve the 737 Max. Are you an employee of TS?

No, why would I have to work for Transat to point out how ludicrous it is that some believe AC is such a threat to well-funded EU airlines, most of whom received some government pogey already?

It's laughable that the EU which includes Lufthansa, Swiss, KLM/Air France, Austrian, Iberia, Brussels, SAS, Finnair, Malev, Aer Lingus. Alitalia, LOT etc think big bad AC (and WS) are such a threat. How many of them don't even bother to serve Canada? :koko:

YYCguys Feb 17, 2021 3:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LO 044 (Post 9192560)
I think the EU let alone the world has more important things to worry about than the fortune of Air Transat. TS is the only one this hurts. AC is happy. Consumers from the east are happy. TS will probably now get an offer from WestJet or Sunwing albeit a much lower one. I'm sure TS is not the only company that this has happened to. Timing is everything. And even if TS does not get an offer, Uncle Trudeau will come to the rescue. After all there will be an election soon.

Pretty bad optics if Westjet puts in an offer to purchase TS (or any airline) in the current economic environment. Passengers are screaming to get refunds processed faster (or even approved for that matter), so if WS offers to buy an airline, there’s going to be some really angry passengers, rightfully so, because if WS can afford to buy an airline, then it should be able to afford to promptly refund passengers for their cancelled flights (note that I am not one of these disgruntled passengers).

Coldrsx Feb 17, 2021 4:03 AM

Time to buy some TRZ stock.


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