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thenoflyzone

Jul 24, 2020 3:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ac888yow (Post 8989485)

This was to be LH's inaugural summer at YOW after AC handed off to them. It never started due to COVID. I wonder if AC might ever return to YOW-FRA if LH doesn't.

It's a question of when, not if. Maybe not by summer 2021, but I'm fairly confident the route will return.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truenorth00 (Post 8989509)

Those 321LRs are looking more genius everyday....

:yeahthat:

Who knows, if TS didn't have the A321LR in its fleet, they might have kept delaying their resumption a la Porter.

What a dumb move by AC to go with the Max. Imagine if they had 20 A321LRs in their fleet right now instead of 20 odd Max's. What a versatile machine. Would have been perfect for AC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 8990203)

Would not be surprised to see most 788 domestic, transborder and Atlantic get the 333. Also would not be surprised if some routes operate less-than-daily, thereby fitting more routes into the 8 frames.

At the rate (and direction) we’re going, summer 2021 will only be marginally better than summer 2020.

There is also the strong possibility that a few of the B788 routes currently in the schedules for S21 wont operate at all. I have my doubts about YUL-BOG, YUL-TLV and YYZ-BRU. Basically all the duplicate routes out of YUL/YYZ might not operate. Would make sense, especially if demand to Europe/South America hasn't picked up enough by next summer. YYC-NRT might not happen either, although the fact that Tokyo has the Olympics might be it's saving grace.

Dominion301

Jul 24, 2020 3:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 8990573)

First day of Transat ops since they shut down operations on April 1.

TS110, an A332, currently airborne doing YUL-CDG. Hearing it has a load factor above 75%, which is excellent, all things considered.
TS122, YYZ-LGW, A321LR, about to depart as well. Running slightly late.

Glad to see TS back in the skies.

It's a question of when, not if. Maybe not by summer 2021, but I'm fairly confident the route will return.

:yeahthat:

Who knows, if TS didn't have the A321LR in its fleet, they might have kept delaying their resumption a la Porter.

What a dumb move by AC to go with the Max. Imagine if they had 20 A321LRs in their fleet right now instead of 20 odd Max's. What a versatile machine. Would have been perfect for AC.

There is also the strong possibility that a few of the B788 routes currently in the schedules for S21 wont operate at all. I have my doubts about YUL-BOG, YUL-TLV and YYZ-BRU. Basically all the duplicate routes out of YUL/YYZ might not operate. Would make sense, especially if demand to Europe/South America hasn't picked up enough by next summer. YYC-NRT might not happen either, although the fact that Tokyo has the Olympics might be it's saving grace.

Was the 321LR available at the time AC placed the 321LR order?

I give the Olympics next year a 50/50 chance of happening...at least with spectators. Globally, we’re still not at the peak of wave 1, let alone 2. We’re spiking modestly in Canada. If humans were patient enough to shut everything down for nine months instead of 1-3 months, there’s a good chance COVID could be beaten. But alas history is repeating itself. We humanoids never learn.

I agree that YOW-FRA will be back at some point.

hollywoodcory

Jul 24, 2020 5:55 PM

At this point, I don't even see YYC-LHR coming back until early next year. If YYC-NRT does return in S21 I can see it operating a less than daily schedule (3-4x weekly). The only AC long haul from YYC I see coming back before the end of the year is FRA.

WestJet will get a full monopoly on YYC-LON for a while. With CDG also coming back, I'm curious if they still intend on keeping it around year-round like originally planned.

Dominion301

Jul 25, 2020 2:43 AM

Here's Flair's new route rundown, flight frequencies and start date seems to be 23AUG20: https://cms.flyflair.com/uploads/0cf...4f021133ff.pdf

Abandoning the east for more west.

Some notable routes include:
YYZ-YMM-YVR
YWG-YLW-YVR
YYJ-YVR ops X2 (whoa! - I guess it'll be timed for connections - the only route that doesn't operate 2x weekly)
YXS-YEG

nname

Jul 25, 2020 6:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 8991419)

YYJ flights connect to all flights to/from YYZ via Alberta (should be the same plane)

It can also connect to #8 bound for YLW, but not the other way around

Sunday/Thursday:
1. YYZ-YEG-YVR, YVR-YYJ, YYJ-YVR, YVR-YEG-YYZ
2. YYZ-YWG-YYC-YLW, YLW-YEG, YEG-YXS-YVR
3. YVR-YXE-YYZ, YYZ-YXE-YVR

Monday/Friday
4. YYZ-YYC-YVR, YVR-YYJ, YYJ-YVR, YVR-YYC-YYZ
5. YVR-YXS-YEG, YEG-YLW, YLW-YYC-YWG-YYZ
6. YVR-YQR-YYZ, YYZ-YQR-YVR

Tuesday
No service

Wednesday/Saturday
7. YYZ-YMM-YVR, YVR-YYJ, YYJ-YVR, YVR-YMM-YYZ
8. YVR-YWG, YWG-YLW-YVR, YVR-YLW-YWG, YWG-YVR

Need 3 planes per day. One start/end from YYZ, another one from YVR, and the third alternates between the two (5/YYZ, 2/YVR).

thenoflyzone

Jul 25, 2020 1:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 8990835)

Was the 321LR available at the time AC placed the 321LR order?

I’m guessing you meant the Max order. The answer is no. It was close though. AC ordered the max in Dec 2013. First deliveries were in 2017.

Airbus launched the A321LR in January 2015, 13 months after AC ordered the Max. First customer, Arkia, received the model in November 2018.

AC should have waited 13 months and should have signed a deal for the A321LR with Airbus.

Dominion301

Jul 25, 2020 2:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 8991504)

Looks like Flair are finally starting to get the hang of ULCC network planning.

YYCguys

Jul 25, 2020 4:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 8991598)

Looks like Flair are finally starting to get the hang of ULCC network planning.

I thought that one of the tricks to making the ULCC model work was to use less expensive airports (eg: YHM instead of YYZ, YXX instead of YVR), but I see that Flair uses both YVR and YYZ. I guess the closest alternate to YYC/YEG might be Red Deer but perhaps Red Deer is just too far out of the way.

esquire

Jul 25, 2020 4:32 PM

Why is Montreal never part of the formula for ULCCs?

Denscity

Jul 25, 2020 4:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by esquire (Post 8991667)

Why is Montreal never part of the formula for ULCCs?

Maybe because there's not one but two airlines based there?

esquire

Jul 25, 2020 7:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Denscity (Post 8991683)

Maybe because there's not one but two airlines based there?

Toronto and Vancouver are well served by airlines yet the ULCCs always include them... OK, Abbotsford and Hamilton. But still.

thenoflyzone

Jul 25, 2020 8:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by esquire (Post 8991667)

Why is Montreal never part of the formula for ULCCs?

Same reason why Montreal isn’t a part of the WS formula. Lack of market penetration and French language requirements. You’d need French speaking FA’s. It’s an added cost.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Denscity (Post 8991683)

Maybe because there's not one but two airlines based there?

How is that any different than YYZ, YVR or YYC? And besides, as far as the domestic market goes, we only have 1 real airline. AC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by esquire (Post 8991788)

Toronto and Vancouver are well served by airlines yet the ULCCs always include them... OK, Abbotsford and Hamilton. But still.

Let’s not kid ourselves. The main market that Flair is after with all these flights is YYZ-YVR and back. The rest is just fluff.

TheGreatestX

Jul 25, 2020 11:06 PM

I think Flair has found a bit of safety with YVR and YYZ because WestJet won't send Swoop out of those airports.

wave46

Jul 26, 2020 12:54 AM

I'm mostly wondering if ULCC really survives at all in Canada in the near term.

Swoop will still be around to keep others at bay on behalf of Westjet, but Flair just missed the peak summer season for travel in Canada.

I'm not sure how deep those owners' pockets are. Another weak travel year and I could see the weakest airlines packing it in.

YYCguys

Jul 26, 2020 1:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 8991850)

And besides, as far as the domestic market goes, we only have 1 real airline. AC.

Define “real”.

In fact, on a recent Who Wants to be a Millionaire episode, one of the questions was “What is Canada’s second biggest airline after Air Canada?”. And wouldn’t you know, “none of the above” wasn’t an option and the correct answer was “Westjet”.

Prairiedawg

Jul 26, 2020 2:11 AM

I think thenoflyzone was speaking specially for YUL having only one real domestic airline based in Montreal. Air Transit may not count since it's mostly seasonal to international destinations and Westjet doesn't really have a base hub at YUL.

hollywoodcory

Jul 26, 2020 9:13 PM

WestJet loaded more S21 changes this weekend.

International:
YYC-CDG has been increased to daily from May 24.

YYC-FCO looks like it could also be eventually extended to year round/longer season too, as it's schedule was extended until end of October (similiar to CDG).

YYZ-BCN 789 replacing 763, and season re-extended into October (was planned to end in Sept this year).

Transborder:
YYC-DEN increased to 6x weekly

I can double check if there were others in a bit. All subject to change of course.

Additionally, WS slashed it's Tranborder schedule in August.

Will now only operate 3x weekly YYC-LAX & ATL. All other routes have been cancelled.

SaskScraper

Jul 27, 2020 7:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 8991504)

One of the Flair jets looks like it'll be dedicated to be mostly for flying to & from the province of Saskatchewan.
With Flair focusing it's business on Western Canada and YYZ, Great to see high expectations particularly for Saskatchewan, which should keep the province's AC and Westjet domestic service price point in-check with the other top airports in Canada.

Denscity

Jul 27, 2020 5:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prairiedawg (Post 8992071)

YVR has zero airlines based there.

thenoflyzone

Jul 27, 2020 5:35 PM

Qatar Airways still not showing any scheduled flights to YYZ past July 30th.

They must have gotten extra-bilateral authority to operate 3x weekly flights to YYZ in July only, and are maybe awaiting the same paperwork for August.

That being said, I don't see any such decisions on the Canadian Transportation Agency's website. Weird, all of this, to say the least.

https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/decisions

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