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hollywoodcory Jan 3, 2021 6:11 AM

With a new US admin coming in later this month that sounds like they intend to actually take the pandemic seriously, one has to wonder if they may impose stricter restrictions on travel, maybe expand the non-essential ban to include air travel.

January-February could end up being just as slow as April/May were.

kwoldtimer Jan 3, 2021 3:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory (Post 9147738)
With a new US admin coming in later this month that sounds like they intend to actually take the pandemic seriously, one has to wonder if they may impose stricter restrictions on travel, maybe expand the non-essential ban to include air travel.

January-February could end up being just as slow as April/May were.

I'd be surpirsed. The Biden plan emphasizes testing, vaccination, and compensation to individuals and business. Although I guess anything is possible if the UK variant rips them a new one.

thenoflyzone Jan 3, 2021 4:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 9147490)
To be clear this is a benefit offered to anyone who becomes sick with COVID and needs to quarantine.

No. You don't need to be sick with COVID to apply for the benefit. If you are isolating to prevent yourself from getting it and aren't able to work at least 50% of the time when doing so, you can apply for it.

Look at the following eligibility criteria.

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-age...who-apply.html

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truenorth00 (Post 9147633)
How exactly do they tell where you got infected?

You don't need to have COVID to apply for the benefit. See above link. If your employer, public health or the government (amongst others) advise you to self isolate, you can apply for the benefit.

Like I said, absurd.

wave46 Jan 3, 2021 4:54 PM

Go on a warm vacation! Get paid for it! Take two additional weeks off as a bonus!

Don't get a nickel to see one's parents in the same country.

Tone-deaf.

whatnext Jan 3, 2021 5:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory (Post 9147738)
With a new US admin coming in later this month that sounds like they intend to actually take the pandemic seriously, one has to wonder if they may impose stricter restrictions on travel, maybe expand the non-essential ban to include air travel.

January-February could end up being just as slow as April/May were.

At this point for the USA a travel ban wouldn’t make a bit of difference. There’s way too much community spread. Canada on the other hand should be tightening travel restrictions. We should be making like Australia and restricting the amount of returnees and putting them in government paid quarantine when they return.

hollywoodcory Jan 3, 2021 6:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext (Post 9147984)
At this point for the USA a travel ban wouldn’t make a bit of difference. There’s way too much community spread. Canada on the other hand should be tightening travel restrictions. We should be making like Australia and restricting the amount of returnees and putting them in government paid quarantine when they return.

Wouldn't that be the same for Canada, as a large portion of it is community spread. Enforcing stricter travel restrictions would basically be closing the barn door after the horse already escaped.

They could also require testing 72 hours before arrival in place of a travel ban. Either way these next few months are going to be rough as they work to vaccinate as many people as possible.

Also I think Australia makes the traveler pay for the quarantine? I knew someone who went back and they said it was $3000 Australian dollars. That would probably be a better way to deter leisure travel, mandatory quarantine at port of entry in a government approved hotel at the traveler's expense.

casper Jan 3, 2021 9:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory (Post 9147999)
Wouldn't that be the same for Canada, as a large portion of it is community spread. Enforcing stricter travel restrictions would basically be closing the barn door after the horse already escaped.

They could also require testing 72 hours before arrival in place of a travel ban. Either way these next few months are going to be rough as they work to vaccinate as many people as possible.

Also I think Australia makes the traveler pay for the quarantine? I knew someone who went back and they said it was $3000 Australian dollars. That would probably be a better way to deter leisure travel, mandatory quarantine at port of entry in a government approved hotel at the traveler's expense.

Community spread in the US is at a must larger rate than Canada.

hollywoodcory Jan 4, 2021 3:21 PM

WestJet appears to be cancelling LGW completely until late March. They have 3 more flights scheduled this month.

CDG was also delayed to March 28th in last week's update.

I'm assuming schedule changes beyond that will wait to see if the slot waiver is extended into S21.

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 9148125)
Community spread in the US is at a must larger rate than Canada.

I don't deny this. They have a leader who cares more about his lost re-election than actually doing something about the pandemic itself.

All I'm saying is the virus is already here. Closing the border isn't going to change that and only a small percentage is actually linked to international travel.

wave46 Jan 4, 2021 4:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory (Post 9148568)
WestJet appears to be cancelling LGW completely until late March. They have 3 more flights scheduled this month.

CDG was also delayed to March 28th in last week's update.

I'm assuming schedule changes beyond that will wait to see if the slot waiver is extended into S21.

I'm mostly surprised that Westjet even bothers with London and Paris in the winter. Europe travel must go off a cliff after summer, no?

Unless they're trying for the business-class play?

Anyway, I guess those Dreamliners will be doing domestic duty for the foreseeable future.

hollywoodcory Jan 4, 2021 4:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wave46 (Post 9148632)
I'm mostly surprised that Westjet even bothers with London and Paris in the winter. Europe travel must go off a cliff after summer, no?

Unless they're trying for the business-class play?

Anyway, I guess those Dreamliners will be doing domestic duty for the foreseeable future.

Currently only LGW is scheduled in the winter, CDG is March-October but I'm guessing it will eventually move to year-round utilizing connections onto AF similar to how AC uses FRA. LGW pre-COVID performed fairly well even in the winter months.

The 787's are also flying to OGG / CUN & PVR in the meantime as well as the domestic runs.

rbt Jan 4, 2021 8:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wave46 (Post 9148632)
I'm mostly surprised that Westjet even bothers with London and Paris in the winter.

Cargo, like airmail, through London is particularly strong at the moment as it's one of the few remaining airports with connections to a large number of cities.

Truenorth00 Jan 5, 2021 1:52 AM

Reuters has a speculative piece that the pandemic might see the Big 4 go to the Big 3 in the US.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUKKBN2991JV

That would definitely reduce options on transborder seeing as one of the Big 4 doesn't even serve Canada.

thenoflyzone Jan 5, 2021 2:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rbt (Post 9148959)
Cargo, like airmail, through London is particularly strong at the moment as it's one of the few remaining airports with connections to a large number of cities.

AMS has been doing much better than LHR in terms of cargo during the pandemic. It will have moved more cargo than LHR in 2020. LHR was always the busier cargo hub in previous years, although AMS wasn't far behind. Hub connectivity is also much better at AMS than at LHR at the moment.

Page 15.

https://www.aci-europe.org/downloads...ORT%202020.pdf

Quote:

Amongst European hubs, Amsterdam-Schiphol proved the most “resilient”, remaining in the 3rd position
globally (but still losing -70% of its hub connectivity). Munich and London-Heathrow were the most impacted,
with their hub connectivity decreasing by -93% and -92% respectively and coming down at the bottom of the
top 20 league.

thenoflyzone Jan 5, 2021 2:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truenorth00 (Post 9149362)
Reuters has a speculative piece that the pandemic might see the Big 4 go to the Big 3 in the US.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUKKBN2991JV

That would definitely reduce options on transborder seeing as one of the Big 4 doesn't even serve Canada.

I don't think that's gonna happen. All 4 airlines will become much smaller, but they should all survive. The US domestic market is still pretty strong and is operating at around 50% of 2019 levels. That number will only grow now that the vaccination is in full swing.

However, if we were to speculate which of the big 4 would flinch first, it would probably be AA, as their financial situation is the weakest, as the article clearly mentions.

casper Jan 5, 2021 5:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9149423)
AMS has been doing much better than LHR in terms of cargo during the pandemic. It will have moved more cargo than LHR in 2020. LHR was always the busier cargo hub in previous years, although AMS wasn't far behind. Hub connectivity is also much better at AMS than at LHR at the moment.

Page 15.

https://www.aci-europe.org/downloads...ORT%202020.pdf

It would be interesting to see WS try to do something in AMS. The tricky thing is KLM flies to nearly every major city in Canada. With WS and KLM being partners it is tricky.

What is a bit of an unknow just now is what happens to permit the AirTransat Air Canada merger. If that requires giving up slots somewhere.

Sounds like Air France is starting to see seats on the CDG to YVR flight. Likely a small number as most passengers are going all the way to Tahiti. Otherwise there is no other service to Paris from Western Canada at the moment.

hollywoodcory Jan 5, 2021 3:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9149423)
AMS has been doing much better than LHR in terms of cargo during the pandemic. It will have moved more cargo than LHR in 2020. LHR was always the busier cargo hub in previous years, although AMS wasn't far behind. Hub connectivity is also much better at AMS than at LHR at the moment.

Page 15.

https://www.aci-europe.org/downloads...ORT%202020.pdf

I'm assuming this is at least partially why KLM was able to restore service to its entire Canadian network so quickly, even flying a triangle to serve YEG.

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 9149540)
It would be interesting to see WS try to do something in AMS. The tricky thing is KLM flies to nearly every major city in Canada. With WS and KLM being partners it is tricky.

What is a bit of an unknow just now is what happens to permit the AirTransat Air Canada merger. If that requires giving up slots somewhere.

Sounds like Air France is starting to see seats on the CDG to YVR flight. Likely a small number as most passengers are going all the way to Tahiti. Otherwise there is no other service to Paris from Western Canada at the moment.

I believe pre-COVID WS was eyeing a possible JV with KLM-Air France which would give them access to AMS. Not sure if that's still the case?

I also believe CDG will eventually be a year-round destination for them too. They've already opened reservation into November this year, and scheduled it daily in the summer from YYC.

wave46 Jan 5, 2021 4:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 9149540)
It would be interesting to see WS try to do something in AMS. The tricky thing is KLM flies to nearly every major city in Canada. With WS and KLM being partners it is tricky.

What is a bit of an unknow just now is what happens to permit the AirTransat Air Canada merger. If that requires giving up slots somewhere.

Sounds like Air France is starting to see seats on the CDG to YVR flight. Likely a small number as most passengers are going all the way to Tahiti. Otherwise there is no other service to Paris from Western Canada at the moment.

KLM's network is really expansive.

However, if Westjet starts up YYC or YEG-AMS, I could see KLM retreating from the Alberta market. Fighting Westjet in their primary market would be an uphill battle as Westjet has the advantage of their domestic connections to fill flights.

That would also diminish the premium KLM could command on a direct flight due to increased competition. I suspect demand is driven from the Canada side too, so Westjet has an edge there. I also suspect Westjet's London flights have squeezed out British Airways in Calgary similarly.

I do think AMS would still be quite useful as a Europe connecting point from Alberta. Connections in London and Charles de Gaulle airport are a pain, whereas AMS is much nicer.

hollywoodcory Jan 5, 2021 7:05 PM

WestJet now has an list of all facilities that perform the test in many of the vacation destinations they fly to. The fact they are providing better and more clear information than the government themselves are is insane.

https://www.westjet.com/assets/wj-we...nformation.pdf

https://www.westjet.com/en-ca/travel...t-canada-entry

Only the US isn't listed ,but I imagine it won't be difficult for one to find.

whatnext Jan 5, 2021 7:26 PM

Amazon buys 4 767's off Westjet:

https://financialpost.com/transporta...-cargo-fleet-2

YYCguys Jan 5, 2021 7:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext (Post 9150031)

Didn’t this already happen earlier this year? The aircraft aren’t even in Westjet’s possession anymore, as far as I know.


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