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thenoflyzone Jul 29, 2021 3:57 PM

AC resuming YQB-PUJ/CUN in December and adding new service to FLL and MCO.

https://canadianaviationnews.wordpre...m-quebec-city/

Quote:

Air Canada is pleased to announce two new winter services departing from Jean Lesage International Airport (YQB): Orlando and Fort Lauderdale, two very popular sun destinations in Florida, highly favoured by Quebecers. Flights to Fort Lauderdale will start on November 19 and flights to Orlando on December 17. Starting December 4, Air Canada will also be offering more flights to Punta Cana and Cancun.

hehehe Jul 29, 2021 5:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9352905)
No way in hell are DL/WS getting a more favorable outcome with their JV 2.0 attempt. It will be the exact opposite. WS will still be forced to give up their 8 daily slot pairs into LGA, as those slots originated from DL in 2011, when they were forced to give them up as part of the US Airways slot swap. Those slots are not going back into DL's hands.

Biden's agenda is pretty clear. Take an aggressive stance against antitrust immunity. They want to increase competition. Not diminish it, which is what JV's do.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/co...eased-3294645/ (July 1, 2021)



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...am-takes-shape (March 9, 2021, article moreso about Tech giants, but still relevant about their mindset vis a vis corporate consolidation)

While you have a valid point, I just don't see why WS/DL would make another application while knowing what their problems were with the previous one if they didn't have a good shot at getting this one approved. I would assume that the people at both airlines and their lawyers (hopefully) know what they're doing.

thenoflyzone Jul 29, 2021 7:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hehehe (Post 9353277)
I would assume that the people at both airlines and their lawyers (hopefully) know what they're doing.

One can make the argument that these same lawyers presumably knew what they were doing the first time around.

Also, it's worth reminding that AC/UA have been trying to get full antitrust immunity across their shared border since 1997, to no avail.

hehehe Jul 29, 2021 8:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9353342)
One can make the argument that these same lawyers presumably knew what they were doing the first time around.

Also, it's worth reminding that AC/UA have been trying to get full antitrust immunity across their shared border since 1997, to no avail.

That's a pretty good point you can't really argue against. It does seem like it will be an uphill battle for both airlines.

Dominion301 Jul 29, 2021 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9352905)
No way in hell are DL/WS getting a more favorable outcome with their JV 2.0 attempt. It will be the exact opposite. WS will still be forced to give up their 8 daily slot pairs into LGA, as those slots originated from DL in 2011, when they were forced to give them up as part of the US Airways slot swap. Those slots are not going back into DL's hands.

Biden's agenda is pretty clear. Take an aggressive stance against antitrust immunity. They want to increase competition. Not diminish it, which is what JV's do.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/co...eased-3294645/ (July 1, 2021)


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...am-takes-shape (March 9, 2021, article moreso about Tech giants, but still relevant about their mindset vis a vis corporate consolidation)

Sorry maybe my math wasn’t clear. I meant 12 - 8 = 4 LGA-YYZ if they still have to give up the 8. Yeah they’re probably going to have to give up a lot more this time. DL AMS slots perhaps?

On a separate note, the inaugural PAL flight into YOW is tonight. ETA of 2100.

thenoflyzone Jul 30, 2021 12:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9353604)
Sorry maybe my math wasn’t clear. I meant 12 - 8 = 4 LGA-YYZ if they still have to give up the 8. Yeah they’re probably going to have to give up a lot more this time. DL AMS slots perhaps?

On a separate note, the inaugural PAL flight into YOW is tonight. ETA of 2100.

DL-WS tie up was for a transborder JV only. So TATL flights aren't involved.

I also think they will have to give up more this time around.

Ex. Divest 8 slot pairs at LGA + several routes will be carved out of the agreement (ex. YYZ-LGA), a la AC/UA JV attempt - which has 14 route carve-outs.

casper Jul 30, 2021 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9353626)
DL-WS tie up was for a transborder JV only. So TATL flights aren't involved.

I also think they will have to give up more this time around.

Ex. Divest 8 slot pairs at LGA + several routes will be carved out of the agreement (ex. YYZ-LGA), a la AC/UA JV attempt - which has 14 route carve-outs.

They carve out YYZ-LGA then their no reason to have to give up slots. Competition is retained on the route.

thenoflyzone Jul 30, 2021 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 9354226)
They carve out YYZ-LGA then their no reason to have to give up slots. Competition is retained on the route.

Yeah. Wrong example, but you get the idea. This being said, pre-pandemic, DL/WS combined were only ~25% of the Canada-US market capacity, so maybe the DOT and Canadian competition Bureau won't be as restrictive as they were with AC/UA, which together account for ~60%.

Those 8 slots at LGA are still going though. It's a matter of principle.

Look at what happened with DL/AM joint venture. They were forced to give up slots at MEX and JFK. And the JV would be reviewed after 5 years. Same kind of restrictions that were imposed with DL/WS JV. DL reluctantly agreed to that one. I don't see why they didn't for their first attempt with WS. Those restrictions were to be expected, and frankly, if they weren't, then those lawyers at DL/WS were way too optimistic.

Maybe DL was ready to agree, but it's WS that didn't want to part with their LGA slots.

hollywoodcory Jul 31, 2021 8:49 PM

WS appears to be finally moving away from month-to-month updates, as they appear to be extending the modified US/International schedule until October 15th.

In September so far I see IAH, PDX and SJD back with SAN / MZT in early September. YYC-LAS is getting pretty close to pre-COVID level service with upwards of 3 daily flights by late September.

Also 497 days later, AC appears to be finally resuming YYC-FRA tomorrow.

thenoflyzone Aug 1, 2021 4:18 AM

Started updating Canada's airports' 2020 stats on wikipedia. Had to do a bit of digging to find the pax count and decreases of some of these secondary airports.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...in_Canada#2020

YYC overtook YUL in 2020, as it handled ~ 240,000 more passengers (5.67 M vs 5.44 M). Most airports saw a ~ -70% decrease Y.O.Y, which is pretty consistent. Notable exception is YTZ, which essentially had no commercial traffic for the last 9 months of the year. 389,000 pax in 2020 vs 2.8 million in 2019, an 86% decrease. It dropped 4 spots on the list because of it. It will probably drop out of the top 20 completely in 2021.

Nicko999 Aug 1, 2021 9:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9354883)
Started updating Canada's airports' 2020 stats on wikipedia. Had to do a bit of digging to find the pax count and decreases of some of these secondary airports.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...in_Canada#2020

YYC overtook YUL in 2020, as it handled ~ 240,000 more passengers (5.67 M vs 5.44 M). Most airports saw a ~ -70% decrease Y.O.Y, which is pretty consistent. Notable exception is YTZ, which essentially had no commercial traffic for the last 9 months of the year. 389,000 pax in 2020 vs 2.8 million in 2019, an 86% decrease. It dropped 4 spots on the list because of it. It will probably drop out of the top 20 completely in 2021.

Awesome work! Thanks for that. I remember checking that wikipedia page maybe about a month ago or so looking for 2020 numbers only to find no update since the 2019 numbers.

SignalHillHiker Aug 3, 2021 8:57 PM

I've had three different conversations so far this week with friends who had been excited about travel but are now horrified.

"It costs as much to get off the island as it cost before to get anywhere. I can't even afford to go to fucking Halifax."

"It was cheaper for me to buy a flight to Frankfurt connecting in Toronto than it was to fly JUST to Toronto. I'd do it and just get off but I think since 9/11 you go to prison for that lol. So, just not going to the concert. Devastating."

Etc, etc.

Lots of concern here that we will be even more relegated post-pandemic to a very expensive spoke around a hub in Toronto or even Halifax.

Two of my best friends will literally move if that turns out to be the new reality. They're not like me - the freedom to travel is the only reason they tolerate here as a home base. They can easily move to Montreal or wherever if it becomes literally unaffordable for them to travel from here. I really don't want to lose them.

I will never move West again, ever. If I have to leave here, I'll do whatever I have to family history wise to get into Ireland (family heritage) or Scotland (paternal grandmother a war bride from near Inverness - but she came here in 1947 so I don't know if she's just negated like the British citizenship of all NLers in 1949). And I really don't want to have to do that lol

Anyhow, maybe some hope...

Passenger Numbers Triple from June to July, says St. John’s International Airport Authority

Quote:

...

He notes there is pent-up demand for travel, and the summer should stay stable. But he’s also calling on the airlines and government to work together to keep flights available and fares low to entice people to keep flying into the fall.

WestJet and Air Canada are once again flying out of the capital city, as well as PAL Airlines which added a new service to Ottawa last week.

Air St-Pierre is also resuming a presence at YYT.
https://vocm.com/2021/08/02/st-johns...nger-increase/

thewave46 Aug 3, 2021 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker (Post 9356647)
Lots of concern here that we will be even more relegated post-pandemic to a very expensive spoke around a hub in Toronto or even Halifax.

I'm not sure I'd panic yet.

Airlines have had an exceptionally difficult couple of years and are desperately trying to keep up with the start of post-COVID demand.

All those planes that sat idle, all the pilots and flight staff that were furloughed have to come back into operation. There's tons of work to be done and demand has skyrocketed relative to a few months ago.

So, yeah, ticket prices went nuts. There's tons of demand with limited supply. Airlines' balance sheets are traumatized from COVID losses, so they're not going to cut deals - they need that cash to get themselves upright again.

Alas, smaller places like Newfoundland are somewhat of an afterthought.

As for the future? Hard to say. There's some indication that the ultra-cheap flying that dominated Europe and the US was never sustainable long-term. I'm not sure it's sustainable here either. However Newfoundland was kind of outside that whole affair, so I suspect it'll deviate back to where it was pre-pandemic with pricing.

An aside: I always wonder about the people who live somewhere just because it's cheap to get somewhere else. As if the only criteria for living somewhere on a day-to-day basis is that you can get somewhere else. Don't they have something else that drives them to stick it out there? Family? Friends? Career advancement? Affordable cost of living? Does spending a bit more on an airline ticket really rate as a reason to leave a place? Man, I like vacations, but if I'm saving thousands on a mortgage/rent, would I leave just to save a few hundred bucks on airline fare for vacation?

SignalHillHiker Aug 3, 2021 10:12 PM

Hopefully you're right. The cheap airfare thing will continue, though. RyanAir had by far the highest profit margins in Europe before the pandemic (up to 25% in some cases, even selling tickets for like 50 Euro).

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46 (Post 9356719)
An aside: I always wonder about the people who live somewhere just because it's cheap to get somewhere else. As if the only criteria for living somewhere on a day-to-day basis is that you can get somewhere else. Don't they have something else that drives them to stick it out there? Family? Friends? Career advancement? Affordable cost of living? Does spending a bit more on an airline ticket really rate as a reason to leave a place? Man, I like vacations, but if I'm saving thousands on a mortgage/rent, would I leave just to save a few hundred bucks on airline fare for vacation?

Well, it's not quite that. I've probably typed this 1,000 times on SSP, but you have to LOVE it here to live here. It's mandatory. If there is not something about St. John's that you love, and cannot get somewhere else... then it's like living in a new subdivision in Kitchener and the rest of Canada is a new suburb in Waterloo. There's no fucking difference, go where life is easier.

But if you love something about here you can't get elsewhere... for me it's just the culture, especially the people. For my buddies, they don't have that. They would be just as happy making friends with the Latin community in Montreal or Toronto as they would here. What keeps them here is family, friends, their businesses, etc.

So they're not here just because it's cheap to get elsewhere, that's never been us. But travel is HUGELY important to them, and if they literally can't afford to do it anymore from here, because the premium is too high to get off the island compared to even Halifax, let along MTL/TO, they will go. Gleefully. Travel is as important to them as being immersed here is to me.

esquire Aug 3, 2021 10:15 PM

Prices will settle down but it could take a year or two. Add that to the last year and a half and that's a fairly long stretch of one's life where leisure travel is practically impossible or prohibitively expensive.

I can't imagine too many people would move just for the sake of cheap airfares (I mean, the cheaper cost of housing in NL probably offsets any extra travel costs) but I could see it being one of many factors in someone's decision.

thewave46 Aug 3, 2021 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker (Post 9356727)
Well, it's not quite that. I've probably typed this 1,000 times on SSP, but you have to LOVE it here to live here. It's mandatory. If there is not something about St. John's that you love, and cannot get somewhere else... then it's like living in a new subdivision in Kitchener and the rest of Canada is a new suburb in Waterloo. There's no fucking difference, go where life is easier.

But if you love something about here you can't get elsewhere... for me it's just the culture, especially the people. For my buddies, they don't have that. They would be just as happy making friends with the Latin community in Montreal or Toronto as they would here. What keeps them here is family, friends, their businesses, etc.

So they're not here just because it's cheap to get elsewhere, that's never been us. But travel is HUGELY important to them, and if they literally can't afford to do it anymore from here, because the premium is too high to get off the island compared to even Halifax, let along MTL/TO, they will go. Gleefully. Travel is as important to them as being immersed here is to me.

I've lived in places you have to love, because you wouldn't be there otherwise. I get that.

I think that's my point though: So much of my life isn't travel - maybe I'm the outlier though. It's the "mundanity" of daily life. Having all the other things: Family, friends, decent employment and a reasonably affordable lifestyle far trumps saving a few hundred bucks on a flight. Even if airline prices doubled where I live, it would be but a footnote on what I spend for shelter, car, food and utilities yearly.

I'd be hard-pressed to give up all the things that make day-to-day life good for a much more expensive city which is better connected. Unless one's family is away, I suppose.

Actually, living away from family probably would be more expensive in the long run - I'd have to spend airfare to get back home on the same holidays everyone wants to get back too.

SignalHillHiker Aug 3, 2021 10:30 PM

Yeah, I'm with you. PM them for me lol

thewave46 Aug 3, 2021 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by esquire (Post 9356732)
I can't imagine too many people would move just for the sake of cheap airfares (I mean, the cheaper cost of housing in NL probably offsets any extra travel costs) but I could see it being one of many factors in someone's decision.

I suppose, but I've always wondered about how committed one was to any given place if airfare was the straw that broke the camel's back.

"Oh, I can fly from Toronto to London for $700 instead of $1400 from St. John's - better go pay though the nose for rent/mortgage in the big city!" Penny-wise and pound foolish.

I can't imagine Winnipeg would be much different in that respect.

Maybe if your family requires an airplane to visit I get it.

thenoflyzone Aug 4, 2021 4:30 AM

Looks like French Bee is switching stopover points on its ORY-PPT runs.

https://mobile.twitter.com/theaerone...86171160645634

Quote:

For August 2021 and first week of September, French Bee operates Paris Orly – Toronto – Papeete routing, replacing Vancouver stop

BF718 ORY1840 – 2040YYZ2210 – 0400+1PPT 359 357
BF719 PPT0700 – 0035+1YYZ0205+1 – 1520+1ORY 359 146

hollywoodcory Aug 4, 2021 5:16 AM

WestJet appears to be adding YYC-SEA starting November 4, effectively replacing DL.

WS3612 YYC-SEA
WS3613 SEA-YYC

Loaded 4x weekly in November, before going 6x weekly in December.

Currently the flights are not bookable.


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