Downtown Toronto’s pace of population growth triples, outpacing suburbs’ ...
Downtown Toronto’s pace of population growth triples, outpacing suburbs’ as Echo Boomers flock towards urban centre: report
Jan 22, 2013 By Megan O'Toole Read More: http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/01...centre-report/ Quote:
http://nationalpostnews.files.wordpr...g?w=320&h=2595 |
Take home message: If you own one of those tiny 600 sq ft. condos built downtown in the past 10 years, sell it now.
Downsizing baby boomers are not going to be looking at tiny condos in a busy downtown. And as the article mentions, once Echo Boomers start pairing off and pooping out babies, they're going to be looking for more space. Houses and large downtown condos will continue to be in demand for those who can afford them. Tiny bachelors and one-bedrooms, however, will have a smaller replacement population of young singles to fill them in the next decade. |
Once the echo boomers move out, the millenniums will be willing to pick up their old units..
I really hate how people think that we should be building as many units downtown as we were 15 years ago. People are moving downtown from the suburbs, because suburban housing is too expensive. (The greenbelt is restricting sprawl) it gets to the point where the only people who are buying houses is the "family" demographic, while if you are in a house of one or two people, you are going to be moving it a condo. People only have kids in their house for about 25 years of their lives, but live 60+ years as homeowners / renters. Up until now, you would have spent about 55 of that in a house, but now, it is probably closer to 35. That is a substantial market for smaller condos. |
Oh yeah baby! Toronto Market Crash! We've been waiting a long time for this!
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And it doesn't have to be in the immediate downtown either where the rabbit hutches are being built. Plenty of already existing houses as well as new townhouses and duplexes popping up.
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There's the immigrant factor as well.
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Also people in roommate situations who want their own place.
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I agree that baby boomers want more than a bachelor pad, and yes a 600 sq ft room isn't big enough, but I think the 800-1000 sq ft range is a comfort zone for single retirees or couples that don't have kids. |
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This will be an issue eventually whether for condos or houses in the suburbs. |
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Even though % Growth for just downtown is outpacing the entirety of the suburbs, the net increase in population downtown was only about 50,000 from 2006 to 2011 compared to around 450,000 for the GTA as a whole, and most of the rest of the growth was suburban greenfields. There are plenty of suburban ridings that grew by more than 16.2%.
Oakridges-Markham: 35.0% Halton: 33.9% (North Oakville and Milton) Vaughan: 27.1% Bramalea-Gore-Malton: 25.8% Brampton West: 19.8% Ajax-Pickering: 17.1% |
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Downtown Toronto is growing by about 6% per annum. I believe I've posted this picture here before:
http://i1292.photobucket.com/albums/...ps0f1a4dfa.jpg That's an incredible rate of growth for such a large area (about 5 square miles) that already (as of 2006) was densely populated to begin with. |
I noticed that map the last time you posted it and found it very interesting, but what is the land area? Looks to be about 3.6 km x 3.6 km or about 13 sq km. Based on that estimation, we arrive at a population density of roughly 13,466 people/sq km in the downtown.
For the sake of comparison, Manhattan has 1,601,948 people on 59 sq km for a population density of 27,151 people/sq km. As one can see, downtown Toronto would need to double its population to achieve Manhattan density albeit on an area one quarter the size. Quite a jump, but at the rate the downtown is growing we might be seeing density above 20,000 before the decade is out. |
I think Manhattan is a higher proportion residential than the very downtown core of Toronto isn't it? Lots of office buildings where no one lives (at least officially).
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http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...canada/272499/
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Seems to me opinions on Canada's real estate market from outside the country are more credible. Most people reporting from within Canada have a huge stake in one outcome or another, and are therefore extremely biased.
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I don't think so. Many people from outside the country seem to be just taking an example from elsewhere and superimposing it 1:1 without really knowing or caring about the specifics and intricacies.
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