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-   -   SAN DIEGO | Boom Rundown, Vol. 2 (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=126473)

bmfarley Apr 14, 2007 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mello (Post 2768079)
Well I appreciate your creativity but I'm just not seeing your point BM. Could you explain?

I concur with the point you made on the previous page. Demand for housing and prices and why things the way they are, are missed on a lot of people. What drives housing prices is supply and demand... basically what people can afford and willing to pay for a unit.

Some would tell you it's based on the construction cost and/or financing cost of a unit. But that is one factor and not the whole equation. It's an investment on the builders part. It's a risk. Some of those investments do not turn out the way people expected they would.

The opposing player/batter takes the antagonist position relative to this thread/web site of development/architecture enthusiasts.... of which I am one too. The antagonist, your post, correctly points out the frailty of the near future of downtown development, imo.

spoonman Apr 15, 2007 7:38 AM

I see saturation of the downtown condo market is a good thing, as long as it's temporary...and it will be. Saturation controls costs. As more units continue to come on-line, we should see an increasingly varied type of buyer.

Although more condos would probably provide a little bit of a push needed to get the ball rolling on an office boom, there is good news. As condo towers become less profitable, office towers start looking better and better. Ask yourselves how many times you've read that land was developed into condos rather than office because it was more profitable?

sandiegodweller Apr 15, 2007 2:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonman (Post 2769043)
I see saturation of the downtown condo market is a good thing, as long as it's temporary...and it will be. Saturation controls costs. As more units continue to come on-line, we should see an increasingly varied type of buyer.

Although more condos would probably provide a little bit of a push needed to get the ball rolling on an office boom, there is good news. As condo towers become less profitable, office towers start looking better and better. Ask yourselves how many times you've read that land was developed into condos rather than office because it was more profitable?

Saturation controls prices, not costs. The downward price pressure of the condos under construction will be in effect. The costs to build will probably remain stable or in a tight range as long a labor and materials don't drastically move.

SDCAL Apr 15, 2007 5:17 PM

cosmo square
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Derek loves SD (Post 2767479)
i went by it recently...its a big dirt lot...with a small public parking lot on the north side of the block

I walk by there almost everyday, waiting to see some moevement. It looks like there is a sales office for it over closer to the Omni hotel (forgot which street I was on exactly) but it was hard to tell if the sales office was open. They have the same poster as on the sign at the site, but it looked closed

IconRPCV Apr 15, 2007 5:18 PM

Growing Skyscapers
 
I love to watch skyscapers grow. I pass by Vantage Point and Aria every day and love to see how much they have risen.

SDCAL Apr 15, 2007 5:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sandiego_urban (Post 2764364)
Yeah, that's exactly what I thought. It sorta reminds me of one of those Honolulu towers built back in the 70's. I don't know...if we have only one tower that looks like this, perhaps it will stand the test of time.

On the plus side, it certainly doesn't look as Vancouverish to me. It could just be the palm trees and mountain thunderstorms in the background.

I agree and it looks similar to alot of the other newer towers in San Diego. It seems like the height restriction has made the need for designers to build the high-rises narrower to look sleeker/taller. I wish we would start some buildings that look more substantial like those in downtown LA and not like a hotel on Waikiki in Honolulu

spoonman Apr 15, 2007 6:20 PM

^VP and Grande are pretty wide. Electra, Sapphire, Cortez Blu are all slender. I personally don't see the problem that we are currently experiencing as whether or not the buildings are slender, I think it's that nobody is building anything remotely sleek. There are too many balconies and obstructions to the face of the buildings as they rise. Every few floors, something breaks the flow going down the side of the buildings.

Derek Apr 15, 2007 7:12 PM

they need to look more like this beauty...

445 West Ash
http://i32.photobucket.com/albums/d1...0West20Ash.jpg

mello Apr 15, 2007 7:43 PM

So if there are tens of thousands of people here in San Diego County who would love to live in these downtown highrises but can't afford it what is the problem? I think it is that companies in this metro area don't pay very well and there isn't a large corporate base here.

There aren't enough jobs paying in the 80K to 120k per year range, because lets face it that is about what you have to make to afford a highrise condo downtown. Most of the people that go clubbing or eat out downtown go "wow i'd love to live here" but they are in the 22 to 40 age bracket and probably only earn 40k to 60k per year.

Think about it how many young "hipsters" do you know that make $80,000 dollars per year and up?? Most young people have crappy sales jobs, waiters, service industry type wage earner jobs. Our economy here isn't producing enough jobs that pay 80k and up. Look at the job growth in this county, the sectors that are growing are the low paying positions. *under 60k per year*

This is my assesment, do you guys agree.

dl3000 Apr 15, 2007 7:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derek loves SD (Post 2769690)
they need to look more like this beauty...

445 West Ash
http://i32.photobucket.com/albums/d1...0West20Ash.jpg

Wow, thats nice. Heres to it getting built.:cheers:

Derek Apr 15, 2007 7:52 PM

good point mello


dl3000, i havent heard any news on that building in a few months now:(

i was just pointing it out...but i do love it

sandiegodweller Apr 16, 2007 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mello (Post 2769751)
So if there are tens of thousands of people here in San Diego County who would love to live in these downtown highrises but can't afford it what is the problem? I think it is that companies in this metro area don't pay very well and there isn't a large corporate base here.

There aren't enough jobs paying in the 80K to 120k per year range, because lets face it that is about what you have to make to afford a highrise condo downtown. Most of the people that go clubbing or eat out downtown go "wow i'd love to live here" but they are in the 22 to 40 age bracket and probably only earn 40k to 60k per year.

Think about it how many young "hipsters" do you know that make $80,000 dollars per year and up?? Most young people have crappy sales jobs, waiters, service industry type wage earner jobs. Our economy here isn't producing enough jobs that pay 80k and up. Look at the job growth in this county, the sectors that are growing are the low paying positions. *under 60k per year*

This is my assesment, do you guys agree.

Very valid arguements.

On the other hand is there anywhere in San Diego County that can you legitimatley qualify for a new home with a $60,000 annual salary?

eburress Apr 16, 2007 1:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mello (Post 2769751)
This is my assesment, do you guys agree.

Yes, I absolutely agree. Here is the problem and solution as I see it:


NEW AIRPORT = corporate expansion, more jobs, higher paying jobs, more people, increased demand for residential and commercial, taller buildings, cultural expansion, more entertainment options, better civic services...

It all starts with a new airport.

sandiegodweller Apr 16, 2007 1:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eburress (Post 2770298)
Yes, I absolutely agree. Here is the problem and solution as I see it:


NEW AIRPORT = corporate expansion, more jobs, higher paying jobs, more people, increased demand for residential and commercial, taller buildings, cultural expansion, more entertainment options, better civic services...

It all starts with a new airport.

If that is true, our grandchildren can have this conversation because without a site identified, it will be 25+ years until an operational new facility will get through the courts and be built. Another 10-20 years until the jobs follow.

eburress Apr 16, 2007 2:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sandiegodweller (Post 2770341)
If that is true, our grandchildren can have this conversation because without a site identified, it will be 25+ years until an operational new facility will get through the courts and be built. Another 10-20 years until the jobs follow.

You are exactly right. It is a very sad, very TRUE story...and it is partly why living in this town is so frustrating.


Edit -> People complain that the city is broke, but they don't want the city to do anything that might expand its tax base.

mello Apr 16, 2007 2:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sandiegodweller (Post 2770221)
Very valid arguements.

On the other hand is there anywhere in San Diego County that can you legitimatley qualify for a new home with a $60,000 annual salary?


A single income household, no could not qualify for a new home on that salary. Now an older small condo or a shitty house in El Cajon/Spring Valley/Vista/Escondido etc. maybe.

So what kind of salary would you say you would need to qualify for a 1000 to 1200 square foot unit in a highrise downtown. 80 to $90,000?

Second Question: How are Vancouver and Miami doing as far as selling all of their new condo units?? Do they have the corporate high paying jobs, compare and contrast those markets with San Diego.

eburress Apr 16, 2007 3:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mello (Post 2770476)
Second Question: How are Vancouver and Miami doing as far as selling all of their new condo units?? Do they have the corporate high paying jobs, compare and contrast those markets with San Diego.

That is a great question. I don't personally know, but I read/hear lots of people on here saying that both markets are fueled by out-of-town investors, which if that is the case, it does not seen sustainable.

keg92101 Apr 16, 2007 3:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mello (Post 2770476)
A single income household, no could not qualify for a new home on that salary. Now an older small condo or a shitty house in El Cajon/Spring Valley/Vista/Escondido etc. maybe.

So what kind of salary would you say you would need to qualify for a 1000 to 1200 square foot unit in a highrise downtown. 80 to $90,000?

Second Question: How are Vancouver and Miami doing as far as selling all of their new condo units?? Do they have the corporate high paying jobs, compare and contrast those markets with San Diego.

You don't get a 1,000 - 1,200 sf condo downtown. you get a 700 sf condo. There are all kinds of single professionals in my building (Fahrenheit) and the studio loft (bout 750 SF) is plenty of room acording to them. When you go to developed cities (NY, SF), unless that single income person was making $200K. Nice 1200 SF lofts in SOMA SF are over a million dollars! I think 2 bedrooms at Vantage Pointe are in the 300s-400s. Great for entry level.

Filambata Apr 16, 2007 3:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eburress (Post 2770298)
Yes, I absolutely agree. Here is the problem and solution as I see it:


NEW AIRPORT = corporate expansion, more jobs, higher paying jobs, more people, increased demand for residential and commercial, taller buildings, cultural expansion, more entertainment options, better civic services...

It all starts with a new airport.

The military still has a lot of influence over San Diego; all we have to do is take a look at the Navy Broadway Complex and Miramar. The military probably isn't too keen on letting San Diego grow too much. After all, why would military strategists and planners want a major metropolitan destination surrounding their installations? If we have an international airport, San Diego will likely become a major world-class city. It would then become an excellent target for those who want to cause major damage to the U.S. in terms of both military and civilian destruction. One reason why the military probably chose San Diego way back when in the first place was that it was close enough to L.A. to be able to take advantage of the benefits offered by a major metropolitan area, but it was also secluded enough and far away enough from major civilian populations that could make the military installations a very tempting target. These are just my thoughts.

SD_Phil Apr 16, 2007 4:23 AM

So this is at the corner of Regeants and Nobel in UTC. I think it's part of the Costa Verde complex but don't have any more info on it. I did promise pictures so here they are (bad pictures taken from inside a car are still pictures!)

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/197/4...af2584e9_o.jpg

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/229/4...5529d9f6_o.jpg

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/218/4...f0a8a0c3_o.jpg


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