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YYCguys Nov 13, 2021 5:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by esquire (Post 9449485)
YWG is awesome because you don't really have to walk very far to anything. It has all of the basics covered, but it doesn't have a ton beyond that.

It’s a shame that Stella’s on the pre secure side closed down and doesn’t appear to be reopening. And it’s strange that the Tim Hortons post security is all the way down at one end of the terminal so it’s quite a walk from the other end!

nname Nov 13, 2021 6:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9449454)
Most of these aren't surprising, like the reductions/cancelations to Asia/Australia and increases in VFR long haul routes like YUL-CAI and YYZ-DEL. What is surprising is the reductions on YUL/YYZ-Europe, especially considering most of these are leisure or VFR routes. At the very least, i'm surprised how early they reduced these routes.

Maybe AC doesn't have enough planes to run all the routes? I'll calculate the long hual plane requirement for the current schedule, but it should be more in line with what they have right now. Before the update, it requires something like 12x 788s to run all the routes...

But by quickly looking at all the plane assignment, seems like they still need to find more work for the 450-seat 77W...

[EDIT]
By my rough calculation, the current schedule will need:
12x 77W (400 seats), 6x 77W (450 seats), 7x 77L, 5x 788, 25x 789, 17x 333

The above does not account for routes still in schedule but not open for booking (OTP, ZAG.. all on 333)

So still some equipment changes pending, and maybe some adjustments to those trans-con US flights that's taking up the 333s. Other than that, not much more they can add now, except maybe a couple of more routes/resumption on 788/789, and maybe the following:
- The flights to PVG will take 1 77W each, so they have 3 unused frequency each at YVR and YYZ.
- YYZ have 10x weekly unused frequency on 789 (they love making every route run on 246...)
- YVR have 2x weekly unused frequency on 788

hemustbeaboss Nov 13, 2021 1:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 9449930)
Maybe AC doesn't have enough planes to run all the routes? I'll calculate the long hual plane requirement for the current schedule, but it should be more in line with what they have right now. Before the update, it requires something like 12x 788s to run all the routes...

But by quickly looking at all the plane assignment, seems like they still need to find more work for the 450-seat 77W...

[EDIT]
By my rough calculation, the current schedule will need:
12x 77W (400 seats), 6x 77W (450 seats), 7x 77L, 5x 788, 25x 789, 17x 333

The above does not account for routes still in schedule but not open for booking (OTP, ZAG.. all on 333)

So still some equipment changes pending, and maybe some adjustments to those trans-con US flights that's taking up the 333s. Other than that, not much more they can add now, except maybe a couple of more routes/resumption on 788/789, and maybe the following:
- The flights to PVG will take 1 77W each, so they have 3 unused frequency each at YVR and YYZ.
- YYZ have 10x weekly unused frequency on 789 (they love making every route run on 246...)
- YVR have 2x weekly unused frequency on 788

Very interesting! Great info nname. Does that usage of the widebodies include domestic and transcon routes as well?

Those 3 additional 787's will help, but AC still has no introduced service / brought back pre covid frequency to PVG, PEK, BNE, AKL, and MEL. And all of those use an aircraft for over a day...

thenoflyzone Nov 13, 2021 3:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 9449930)
Maybe AC doesn't have enough planes to run all the routes? I'll calculate the long hual plane requirement for the current schedule, but it should be more in line with what they have right now. Before the update, it requires something like 12x 788s to run all the routes...

But by quickly looking at all the plane assignment, seems like they still need to find more work for the 450-seat 77W...

[EDIT]
By my rough calculation, the current schedule will need:
12x 77W (400 seats), 6x 77W (450 seats), 7x 77L, 5x 788, 25x 789, 17x 333

The above does not account for routes still in schedule but not open for booking (OTP, ZAG.. all on 333)

So still some equipment changes pending, and maybe some adjustments to those trans-con US flights that's taking up the 333s. Other than that, not much more they can add now, except maybe a couple of more routes/resumption on 788/789, and maybe the following:
- The flights to PVG will take 1 77W each, so they have 3 unused frequency each at YVR and YYZ.
- YYZ have 10x weekly unused frequency on 789 (they love making every route run on 246...)
- YVR have 2x weekly unused frequency on 788

So a bit of slack, but not much. Interesting. Good work.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hemustbeaboss (Post 9449997)

Those 3 additional 787's will help, but AC still has no introduced service / brought back pre covid frequency to PVG, PEK, BNE, AKL, and MEL. And all of those use an aircraft for over a day...

Like AC's VP of Network planning said recently, big decisions need to be made.

https://simpleflying.com/air-canada-...ntic-recovery/

Quote:

Because of the relative success of these ethnic markets, Galardo said that he has big decisions to make. Is it worth keeping them – or at least at the higher frequencies – at the expense of not doing other things with the aircraft as the rest of the world reopens? A complicating factor is that VFR markets are generally the lowest of the low for yields.

It is a reminder of how an airline can do only so many things with what it has, necessitating decision-making about how best to utilize very expensive assets. The opportunity cost – if you do X, you can’t do Y – is clear and will confront many airlines as they begin to return to normal and ultimately return to their core markets. Air Canada is no different.
It's pretty safe to say that PEK, PVG should return once China opens up. The rest isn't guaranteed. The Australian routes weren't performing as well as AC had hoped pre-pandemic. 3 routes to Australia seemed a bit much, by my reading of their expectations.

thenoflyzone Nov 13, 2021 5:10 PM

^ In AC's Q3 results and analysis documents, AC will have the following widebody passenger fleet next year. Numbers in brackets are the change from this year.

18x B77W (+6, all cargo aircraft converted back to passenger layout)
6x B77L
8x B788
30x B789 (+1)
16x A333 (+4, all cargo aircraft converted back to passenger layout)

So yeah, a bit of slack, but not much.

Dominion301 Nov 13, 2021 5:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9450082)
^ In AC's Q3 results and analysis documents, AC will have the following widebody passenger fleet next year. Numbers in brackets are the change from this year.

18x B77W (+6, all cargo aircraft converted back to passenger layout)
6x B77L
8x B788
30x B789 (+1)
16x A333 (+4, all cargo aircraft converted back to passenger layout)

So yeah, a bit of slack, but not much.

Isn't it 17 77Ws with the 1 that was recently returned to lessor?

nname Nov 13, 2021 6:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hemustbeaboss (Post 9449997)
Those 3 additional 787's will help, but AC still has no introduced service / brought back pre covid frequency to PVG, PEK, BNE, AKL, and MEL. And all of those use an aircraft for over a day...

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9450022)
It's pretty safe to say that PEK, PVG should return once China opens up. The rest isn't guaranteed. The Australian routes weren't performing as well as AC had hoped pre-pandemic. 3 routes to Australia seemed a bit much, by my reading of their expectations.

They could still free up some 333s by convert the LAX/SFO and a few TATL routes to 7M8. Currently flights to LAX and SFO will take up 5x 333, as they currently cannot be connected to any TATL route. Each TATL flight will take up a full plane for the day due to increased turnaround time.

AKL and MEL were scheduled to winter only, BNE could become less than daily. PVG and PEK will certainly be back, but that's not guaranteed for YUL-PVG and that route could become less than daily too. Seems like AC is more open for running sub-daily routes now compared to before.

Dominion301 Nov 13, 2021 8:13 PM

Here's a neat video of Canadian North's first 73G, FIN 701, an ex-WS bird: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYniIbiKie0

thewave46 Nov 13, 2021 9:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9450082)
^ In AC's Q3 results and analysis documents, AC will have the following widebody passenger fleet next year. Numbers in brackets are the change from this year.

18x B77W (+6, all cargo aircraft converted back to passenger layout)
6x B77L
8x B788
30x B789 (+1)
16x A333 (+4, all cargo aircraft converted back to passenger layout)

So yeah, a bit of slack, but not much.

I'm surprised to see the 777-200LR back. The 789 has close to the same range and passenger count.

Unless they're putting it on cargo heavy routes? It always seemed like they didn't quite know what to do with it other than Hong Kong flights from Toronto.

If there was another candidate for a conversion to the AC Cargo fleet, the 77L would be my choice.

thewave46 Nov 13, 2021 9:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9450022)
The Australian routes weren't performing as well as AC had hoped pre-pandemic. 3 routes to Australia seemed a bit much, by my reading of their expectations.

I do wonder how many will come back. Alas, the unreliability of their codeshare partner in Australia (Virgin Australia) means they're somewhat limited.

I expect SYD to continue. Melbourne might be seasonal. Maybe Brisbane comes back for the Olympics? I wonder how they did on AKL and if it eventually returns for the winter?

thenoflyzone Nov 13, 2021 9:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9450111)
Isn't it 17 77Ws with the 1 that was recently returned to lessor?

The count went down from 19 to 18 because of that. Page 22.

https://www.aircanada.com/content/da...021_MDA_q3.pdf

thenoflyzone Nov 14, 2021 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46 (Post 9450257)
I'm surprised to see the 777-200LR back. The 789 has close to the same range and passenger count.

Unless they're putting it on cargo heavy routes? It always seemed like they didn't quite know what to do with it other than Hong Kong flights from Toronto.

If there was another candidate for a conversion to the AC Cargo fleet, the 77L would be my choice.

They're bought and paid for, so it makes sense to keep them. Also, the 77L can fly further (~ 1,000 nm, or 2 hours and change) or can carry more cargo over the same distance as the B789. So yeah, on certain cargo heavy routes, it has its uses. The cost to operate it is more though, so the cargo has to make up for the difference, and then some. But again, they're bought and paid for, so there's that.

Alexcaban Nov 14, 2021 1:52 AM

My guess is MEL gets the permanent chop.

Was already a weak route pre-pandemic and had been reduced to seasonal.

Dominion301 Nov 14, 2021 1:55 AM

In keeping with YYC videos (see the 5T 73G above), here is some beyond-awesome footage from 1992 of YYC action by a CP employee and getting up close & personal with a CP 732 at the old Canadi>n hangar, including with the JT8Ds getting tested at idle power = still screaming.

Other aircraft in the video include a DL 757, AA Mad Dog, CAF Herc landing, CP 763 landing, CP DC-10, then-new AC & CP 320s, CP 732 'Spirit of Norman Wells' - this aircraft still flies in 2021 with Air Inuit, AC DC-9, 762 and, in the twilight of its AC career 727 (all but two AC 727s went to FedEx) all in the double red stripe livery (my favourite AC livery) and some Air BC and Time Air/CP Partner Dash 8s. Not to mention the ground equipment of the era, including the wonderful Robert Mitchell loading bridges with the no marshalling required stop poles.

It's worth a looking - and bookmarking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRx99Lh7ihg

casper Nov 14, 2021 3:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9450390)
They're bought and paid for, so it makes sense to keep them. Also, the 77L can fly further (~ 1,000 nm, or 2 hours and change) or can carry more cargo over the same distance as the B789. So yeah, on certain cargo heavy routes, it has its uses. The cost to operate it is more though, so the cargo has to make up for the difference, and then some. But again, they're bought and paid for, so there's that.

The 77L are also in a slightly more premium configuration. On routes where they routinely fill their front cabin with paying customers there are better off using the 77L.

Dominion301 Nov 14, 2021 4:44 PM

Swoop are coming to Ottawa starting 25APR22 nonstop 3x weekly to YEG. Hopefully there's a press release as it's rather strange the flights were loaded before being announced. The flights will continue same-plane to Abbotsford/YXX. Also hopefully WS aren't downloading YOW-YEG to WO and these flights will complement WS.

Here's the schedule:
WO 511 D YOW 1700, A YEG 1920, D YEG 2015, A YXX 2040 ops days 135
WO 510 D YXX 0715, A YEG 0935, D YEG 1030, A YOW 1610 ops days 135

One-way fares to both YXX and YEG start at $99 taxes in.

JakeLRS Nov 14, 2021 8:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9450660)
Swoop are coming to Ottawa starting 25APR22 nonstop 3x weekly to YEG. Hopefully there's a press release as it's rather strange the flights were loaded before being announced. The flights will continue same-plane to Abbotsford/YXX. Also hopefully WS aren't downloading YOW-YEG to WO and these flights will complement WS.

Here's the schedule:
WO 511 D YOW 1700, A YEG 1920, D YEG 2015, A YXX 2040 ops days 135
WO 510 D YXX 0715, A YEG 0935, D YEG 1030, A YOW 1610 ops days 135

One-way fares to both YXX and YEG start at $99 taxes in.

Almost certainly added to combat flair so westjet can continue to cater to a more leisure market instead of a budget market.

hollywoodcory Nov 14, 2021 9:39 PM

I also see Swoop added YEG-YQM too and is currently the only non-stop from anywhere in Western Canada to NB. Mainline WS doesn't even serve YQM from YYC (yet).

Curious if this could be hinting at WS adding YYC-YQM as well.

thenoflyzone Nov 14, 2021 9:49 PM

AA exits YOW completely. They haven’t flown to YOW since June 2020. AA is also cutting JFK-YUL/YYZ (which haven’t been flown since April 2019). They are also cutting PHX-YVR/YYC.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/americ...14744363C&tw=1

thewave46 Nov 14, 2021 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9450871)
AA exits YOW completely. They haven’t flown to YOW since June 2020. AA is also cutting JFK-YUL/YYZ (which haven’t been flown since April 2019). They are also cutting PHX-YVR/YYC.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/americ...14744363C&tw=1

The US airlines are really hacking away at Canada.

I see why AA is the weakest of the lot as they lack a partner here.

Is our market that weak for US airlines? Or is it more an internal problem for them and Canada's just easier to sacrifice?


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