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Dec 16, 2010 3:52 PM |
Quote:
What will local transportation look like in 2050?
It's crystal ball time for SANDAG board, which votes on plan Friday that contains $100 billion in projects
By Robert J. Hawkins
Originally published December 15, 2010 at 6:09 p.m., updated December 15, 2010 at 7:14 p.m.
What will transportation in San Diego County look like by the year 2050?
That’s a big question, calling for bold answers and a huge amount of faith in public policy prognosticators, arcane computer formulas and reams and reams of data.
And that is just the roll of the dice that the board of directors of the regional planning agency San Diego Association of Governments will be making Friday morning as it is asked to endorse a document called the 2050 Regional Transportation Plan.
This document has been years in the making and essentially sets the region’s agenda for future highway expansion, transit, trains, trolleys, bike paths and border crossings. And it tries to do this within scenarios that project how fast and where the county population will be growing over the next 40 years.
If this document were a crystal ball, a peek inside would see a county knitted together by speedy buses, trolleys, streetcars, trains and hundreds of miles of bicycle paths. Highways would be wider but chances are you will be paying more as you drive, in tolls and FasTrak fees.
This is more than an exercise. More than $100 billion in transportation funding is at stake. Granted, most of it is already committed, thanks to the TransNet funding tax approved by voters (and expiring in 2048). But there is still up to $3.5 billion in non-earmarked funding in play.
This has all been done before. SANDAG is currently guided by the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan, completed in November 2007. And this one builds upon that foundation.
But there are fresh forces at play in this new document.
• There is a growing momentum for more emphasis on mass transit and public transit projects – more trolley lines, more rapid bus services, more bus lines, rail projects that will boost Coaster trains.
• There is also strong momentum for expanded and interconnected bicycle paths that would serve commuter cyclists, walkers and recreational bikers. And indeed, with a recently passed regional bicycle plan in place, the 2050 plan includes $2.58 billion for putting the system in place.
• This is the first regional transportation plan in California to reach this stage while trying to comply with new state-mandated pollution reduction goals. Everything in the plan was introduced with meeting greenhouse gas emission targets in mind.
• While most of the money has been linked to existing transportation projects, many advocates have been urging SANDAG to create a hierarchy for spending that puts mass-transit and bicycle/walking path projects at the head of the list – ahead of highway expansion projects.
The current proposal, is an outgrowth of four scenarios devised by SANDAG planners, each emphasizing a different strength – transit, highways, rail/freight and a blend of all three called the Fusion. With guidance from the board and public commentary, the staff has built the latest model, called the Hybrid.
This plan got the blessings of the Metropolitan transit Systems board and the SANDAG Transportation Committee last week. Some key local advocacy groups like Move San Diego and the San Diego County Bicycle Coalition have given provisional endorsements.
Key aspects of the plan will not please many residents along the North County I-5 corridor who have been opposing the extensive expansion of the highway. Those proposals and funding are included in the 2050 plan.
Some of the key projects identified in the plan are:
• Double-tracking of the Coaster line between Oceanside and downtown San Diego, and the Sprinter line between Oceanside and Escondido.
• Construction of a downtown tunnel – essentially creating a subway – for the trolley.
• Construction of four new trolley lines.
• Construction of three streetcar projects in San Diego.
• There are numerous freeway expansion and improvement projects – but no new highways --many focusing on managed lanes, toll lanes and commuter lanes all of which could mean drivers of the future may be living in a pay-as-you-go world.
The vote on Friday is important. Transit advocates like Elyse Lowe, director of Move san Diego are urging their followers to turn out in numbers and contact their SANDAG representatives.
“Please ask them to expand transit first -- not freeways,” she wrote in a missive this week. “Making transit times competitive with the car will help us realize economic, environmental and quality of life benefits and this is where our investment will pay off with the highest dividends.”
Her stance has been echoed by Pamela Epstein of the Sierra Club and a coalition of groups under the baner Sustainable San Diego.
Others, like Duncan McFetridge of Save Our Forests and Ranchlands and environmental lawyer Marco A. Gonzalez, have been regularly chiding SANDAG for refusing to disclose the code behind to the complex computer formulas that help shape many of its decisions.
Friday’s session in SANDAG’s boardroom at 401 B Street, Downtown, promises to be lively and sprawling but however it comes out, it isn’t the end.
The final 2050 plan will be the subject of public hearings in early 2011 and the board will adopt a final plan by mid-year.
And even then, if they don’t get it exactly right, observes SANDAG executive director Gary Gallegos, by law they go back into the document every four years and make course corrections.
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http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2...ransportation/
PDF of the plan:
http://media.signonsandiego.com/news...50rtpfinal.pdf
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