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zahav Apr 2, 2023 6:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ace.yyc (Post 9908193)
I don't think the YYC fight alone will be what kills them but what confuses me is that Flair attempted YYC-LAS prepandemic and it didn't work out for them at all... it was kind of a haphazard operation and they pulled out. Those were much more favorable conditions - now there's Lynx who by virtue of not trying to take over the world like Flair have built up a nice reputation locally with strong OTP. Further, WS in 2023 is obviously more aggressive in defence of transborder from YYC than they would have been prepandemic. WS is also #1 in transborder LF... while F8's transborder load factors mostly unopposed from YEG are garbage.

I'll see how this plays out but I'm not fully understanding the strategy.

Yes totally agree, I don't think the YYC expansion alone will kill them, I just think it's a risky plan for an already shaky company. WS made a very public shift in it's growth strategy, and they have followed through (meaning the Western build-up). They will bleed Flair dry; every single one of Flair's additions at YYC are on WS core routes. And WS will win the war, Flair isn't capable of being real competition for them

Arrdeeharharharbour Apr 2, 2023 2:44 PM

A friend bought a Lynx flight from Halifax to Hamilton return some months back on a black Friday sale. He attempted to check-in one night this past week and discovered that the flight had been canceled. In fact, he was told by a Lynx rep. that the flight had been canceled the day after he had purchased the flight. They didn't tell him. They didn't refund him. They left him in the lurch having to pay a much higher fare to make a long time booked appointment with his 90 year old dad. The ULCC airlines are great but a little honesty in their advertising would go a long way. They should be using words like 'maybe' or 'perhaps we'll get you there' in their ads.

ace.yyc Apr 2, 2023 5:06 PM

Yeah that's the problem with Lynx and Flair. People go on and on about how much they hate AC and WestJet and how badly we need competition in this country, which is not untrue, but booking Flair or Lynx is ultimately a game of roulette with your money.

thenoflyzone Apr 2, 2023 8:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arrdeeharharharbour (Post 9908274)
A friend bought a Lynx flight from Halifax to Hamilton return some months back on a black Friday sale. He attempted to check-in one night this past week and discovered that the flight had been canceled. In fact, he was told by a Lynx rep. that the flight had been canceled the day after he had purchased the flight. They didn't tell him. They didn't refund him. They left him in the lurch having to pay a much higher fare to make a long time booked appointment with his 90 year old dad. The ULCC airlines are great but a little honesty in their advertising would go a long way. They should be using words like 'maybe' or 'perhaps we'll get you there' in their ads.

Your friend should file a complaint with the CTA. Airlines are supposed to communicate flight cancellations in a timely manner. Same for refunds.

But what ace.yyc said is 100% true. You get what you pay for.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav (Post 9908070)
Flair is all over the place, I am not sure why they think going up against Westjet in YYC is a good idea, I feel like that might me the nail in their coffin. Also Lynx is based there, so even more competition. I know AC cut a big amount of domestic flying from YYC, so there is spillover demand, but I feel like WS will force them out, they want to control the Alberta market. And really think about it, WS managed to bring Air Canada down in YYC after decades of trying. And AC is massive, and they held on for years even after it was clear WS was gaining more and more market share out of YYC. But finally AC kind of admitted defeat in the western regional war, and retrenched out east. If WS can do that to the likes of Air Canada, Flair is a cake walk, they are basically bringing themselves down already.

1. I'm amazed Flair is still alive. It's only a matter of time really. They are delaying the inevitable.

2. I don't agree that WS brought down AC at YYC. Same way I wouldn't agree that AC brought down WS at YYZ. Each airline decided to focus their efforts where the dividends are highest. The official AC position is that they will be back at YYC. We shall see. The main culprit for AC retreating from YYC is the pilot shortage at Jazz. They simply didn't have enough staff to crew the flights from YYC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav (Post 9908070)
YVR is definitely struggling with international (specifically China), the loss of that market has been horrendous. There's been so many good gains (new routes, airlines, etc.) but they aren't huge traffic numbers, they are more almost trophy routes (ie. Fiji Airways). So despite new additions, it isn't enough to make up for the loss of flights to China. One day maybe, but the airport is noticeably less Chinese driven lately.

:tup:

it's what I've been saying all along. Gaining 2x weekly to Fiji and 3x weekly to SIN, but losing 50 odd (? don't know the exact number, but it was up there pre-pandemic) flights a week to China is not cause for celebration. And the numbers show it.

casper Apr 2, 2023 8:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ace.yyc (Post 9908369)
Yeah that's the problem with Lynx and Flair. People go on and on about how much they hate AC and WestJet and how badly we need competition in this country, which is not untrue, but booking Flair or Lynx is ultimately a game of roulette with your money.

I would take a hard line with Lynx. They sold a ticket from Halifax to Hamilton. They should be on the hock to deliver on that. If they can't do it on their own medal then they need to rebook the passenger onto AC or Porter or WestJet.

Lynx, Flair, and Swoop should be held to the same standards as any other airline.

nname Apr 2, 2023 8:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9908488)
it's what I've been saying all along. Gaining 2x weekly to Fiji and 3x weekly to SIN, but losing 50 odd (? don't know the exact number, but it was up there pre-pandemic) flights a week to China is not cause for celebration. And the numbers show it.

Well, the flights to China will be back, just a matter of when, not if.

If you want the exact number... it's 48x weekly flights, or a bit over 110k monthly international seats. As soon as restriction is lifted, at least 28x weekly will be back within months. The other 20x may have to wait a bit...

ace.yyc Apr 2, 2023 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 9908497)
Lynx, Flair, and Swoop should be held to the same standards as any other airline.

The problem with saying this in any online venue, including this one, is that you're attacked as being a shill for big red or team teal and for hating competition. :yes:

casper Apr 2, 2023 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ace.yyc (Post 9908572)
The problem with saying this in any online venue, including this one, is that you're attacked as being a shill for big red or team teal and for hating competition. :yes:

I am all for competition as long as the competitors are behaving in a responsible way and not stranding people or placing peoples safety at risk.

I don't like paying the prices of AC and WS. They have gone up quite a bit since the COVID years. However we don't need competitors that are poor corporates citizens. I think Porter has real promise.

ace.yyc Apr 3, 2023 12:23 AM

Porter's load factors into YYC thus far, if the flight isn't cancelled, are anything but promising so I really hope they can start filling seats soon.

YYCguys Apr 3, 2023 1:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ace.yyc (Post 9908633)
Porter's load factors into YYC thus far, if the flight isn't cancelled, are anything but promising so I really hope they can start filling seats soon.

This is surprising to me. No middle seat, better food available in Y (than on WS), and free beer/wine for all! I am tempted to try them out myself!

Zmonkey Apr 3, 2023 3:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YYCguys (Post 9908678)
This is surprising to me. No middle seat, better food available in Y (than on WS), and free beer/wine for all! I am tempted to try them out myself!

If you are a business traveller they make no sense. Air Canada And westjet have flights every 2 hours to Toronto, both have better connections (Westjet in Calgary, AC in Toronto) and Porter is just terrible at getting out on time.
They leisure passengers are sticking with AC/Wesjet or saving money going the Flair / Lynx route.
If its dead over summer you know its a real problem.

thewave46 Apr 3, 2023 5:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ace.yyc (Post 9908633)
Porter's load factors into YYC thus far, if the flight isn't cancelled, are anything but promising so I really hope they can start filling seats soon.

You have to admire the insanity of the Canadian aviation market. From both a customer and company point-of-view.

It alternates between mix of staid oligopoly and 'mania of new entrants all trying at the exact same time', typically at the worst time to start an airline. Not only do we got one ULCC trying here, we get four at once (admittedly, one exists to bleed everybody else out).

Canadians find out that ULCC flying is Greyhound of the sky level, and to save a penny, they spend a dollar when misery is factored in. At least you get four choices for your misery :shrug:

When something like Porter comes along with decent (but not stupid cheap) prices, proven operational experience, and good service (an actual competitor!), Canadians shun it in droves.

Then the oligopoly retrenches for a bit, or attempts to buy up anything worth buying (see: Sunwing and Air Transat) while it waits for the mania to die down. The feds play along and approve these deals, because we must have both extreme competition that eats itself and oligopoly at the same time. In the meantime, the oligopoly charge top dollar, but they'll at least get you there.

Such a reflection of the national character.

JakeLRS Apr 3, 2023 5:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 9907410)
Flair update summer schedule again, looks like they will be wetleasing an A320 and fleet reduction of 3 planes.

F8 642-645 (2x daily YYZ-YWG) will be operated by A320.

Whose 320 would this be? Jetlines?

One of Jetlines aircraft is currently operating that exact route.

In Jetlines’ financial report they mentioned an airline has reached out to them for a 5 month ACMI.

“…Charter flights and ACMI lease contracts continued to grow throughout the first quarter of 2023 and in March the Company announced it was chosen to provide an aircraft and crew for a 5-month ACMI contract beginning at the end of March, 2023.””

YYCguys Apr 3, 2023 6:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JakeLRS (Post 9909073)
One of Jetlines aircraft is currently operating that exact route.

In Jetlines’ financial report they mentioned an airline has reached out to them for a 5 month ACMI.

“…Charter flights and ACMI lease contracts continued to grow throughout the first quarter of 2023 and in March the Company announced it was chosen to provide an aircraft and crew for a 5-month ACMI contract beginning at the end of March, 2023.””

Has Jetlines become a wet lease charter airline or do they still do some scheduled flying?

Dominion301 Apr 3, 2023 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YYCguys (Post 9909123)
Has Jetlines become a wet lease charter airline or do they still do some scheduled flying?

Allegedly they still do some scheduled flying. LAS and CUN seem consistent. Everything else has come & gone or perpetually pushed back (YVR).

They now have FLL and YQM listed as sked destinations with no actual flights loaded.

ace.yyc Apr 3, 2023 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YYCguys (Post 9908678)
This is surprising to me. No middle seat, better food available in Y (than on WS), and free beer/wine for all! I am tempted to try them out myself!

Horrible completion rate for the first 6 weeks of the operation where half the flights were cancelled or massively late, turned people off real quick. The middle seat appears to be overhyped and all people actually care about is price, and PD's basic fare is often comparable to AC and PD's basic fare does not include a carry-on. Travelling across the country without a carry-on is often difficult, so you're in a comparable situation if you just pay for seat selection on AC.

ninjakafi_81 Apr 5, 2023 5:21 PM

Expanded Canada-United Arab Emirates air transport agreement to allow more flights between both countries

https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-c...countries.html

Quote:

Whether visiting family and friends or shipping goods to markets around the world, Canadians rely on the aviation industry to provide diverse international air services. Expanding Canada’s existing air transport relationships allows airlines to introduce more flight options and routings, which benefit passengers and businesses by providing greater choice while creating good jobs for Canadians and growing our economy.

Today, the Minister of Transport, the Honourable Omar Alghabra, announced the conclusion of an expanded air transport agreement between Canada and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is Canada’s largest air transport market in the Middle East. The expanded agreement allows 21 flights per week for each country. This will permit 50 per cent more flights than the maximum number previously possible, facilitate new routes, and give airlines greater flexibility to accommodate changes in market demand.

This significant move will better accommodate the growing Canada-UAE air transport market, improve Canada’s global connectivity, and support tourism and trade activity between the two countries.

The new rights under the expanded agreement are available for use by airlines immediately. This new agreement is also aligned with Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy since the UAE serves as a hub for many flights to Asia.

Zmonkey Apr 5, 2023 5:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81 (Post 9910945)
Expanded Canada-United Arab Emirates air transport agreement to allow more flights between both countries

https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-c...countries.html

Currently, Toronto has 18 weekly flights to the UAE between AC (7) and the rest split between Emirates and Etihad.
I assume Vancouver and Montreal will have some EK flights by the end of the year.

thenoflyzone Apr 5, 2023 6:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zmonkey (Post 9910965)
Currently, Toronto has 18 weekly flights to the UAE between AC (7) and the rest split between Emirates and Etihad.
I assume Vancouver and Montreal will have some EK flights by the end of the year.

:cheers:

EK is currently 5x weekly at YYZ. EY is 6x weekly to AUH. So that's 11x weekly, leaving another 10x weekly for YUL/YVR, assuming YYZ doesn't get any increase.

I think there is a fair chance EK and EY both go daily to YYZ, leaving only 7x weekly for 1 additional city, or a 3x/4x weekly split to both YVR/YUL. Let's see how this plays out.

Maybe EK will add service to one and AC to the other city.

thenoflyzone Apr 5, 2023 9:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory (Post 9905966)
YYC February 2023 stats:

Domestic: 788,360 +57.2% YTD: 1,601,582 +63.95%
Transborder: 226,197 +93.6% YTD: 448,939 +111.4%
International: 175,866 +118.2% YTD: 366,000 +124.1%
February total: 1,190,423 +70.3%

2023 YTD: 2,416,521 +78.7%

Compared to 2019, all three areas are down.

YUL posted February 2023 as well. Once again, percentages based on 2019 numbers:

https://www.admtl.com/sites/default/...ats_fev_EN.pdf

Domestic: 406,775 -14.3%
Transborder: 308,317 -7.6%
International: 661,787 +6.0%

February total: 1,376,879 -3.9%

2023 YTD: 2,862,999 -3.4%


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