1st and Beech lagging...
 

Is this Willmark Communities a serious developer or not? Have you guys ever heard of them? Tower approved since 2016, at the peak of cycle with recession looming like a CAT 5 hurricane sitting offshore and they are still dragging their feet saying its 9 months away from ground breaking?? I'm not sure we can take this company seriously and expect this tower to happen.

Manchester PAC Gateway: I'm a bit concerned as well that the only activity we are seeing is the Navy HQ being built. You would think if this isn't being phased we would have seen digging for other towers by now, can anyone see in to the site and check whats going on?

Aerial view of new Horton Plaza
 

Check out the Aerial view of the new space in this render... idk how to post pictures lol

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2019/may/2...mpus-horton-r/

right click the image, click "open page in new tab" or something like that, and copy that URL. When you make a post, there's a little picture button that lets you insert the URL.

I found a larger, crisper version of the image online. Note how they are keeping the zany triangular feature at the center:

https://cdn.archpaper.com/wp-content...iew6190516.jpg

Quietly, Manchester is thinking about selling their development rights to all but the Navy Tower and Office/Hotel Tower closest to broadway. Big players are looking at the acquisition.

If it's successful, I think the Horton Plaza redevelopment could be huge for downtown. Regional trends have shown that downtown has started to become a residential neighborhood, while most high paying office jobs have moved to the suburbs. If the Campus at Horton is a success, I think it would signal to employers that the workforce really does want to work in a downtown urban environment, they just needed the opportunity. Developers need to think that they can make money by investing in these kinds of projects. We're seeing a little bit of that lately with some downtown office building renovations, government buildings, IDEA District, and the UCSD Extension, but I think something as big as Horton Plaza being successful would be a huge wake up call.

However, I think it's possible that it won't work out as well as hoped. I worry about a recession hitting employment growth, or regional cost of living getting out of control. SD isn't poised for a ton of growth in the same way that Seattle or other cities are. :shrug:

I'm glad they are...it's a nice reminder of the mall's former version.

Thanks Streamliner and JereLLO for posting that rendering. I was hoping Jimbo’s would stay because I go there quite a bit and I see there is a Jimbo’s sign in the rendering. Does this mean they settled the lawsuit with the developers?

I know the Lyceum theater is staying.

I wonder if 24 hr Fitness and Macy’s will stay.

I hope Macy’s stays, would be nice to keep at least one major department store downtown.

We're getting into the final stages of the Airport-Trolley project. Here's an image of the final four options

https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/d...nectors-01.jpg

Personally I'm in favor of the ITC site, partially because it would probably be the easiest and cheapest to construct, but mainly because this would be the view out the windows.

^
What's the ITC site? I hadn't heard of that proposal before now.

Also, I like the renders of Horton Plaza... The world needs more rooftop yoga.
And I sincerely hope the developers will do something to fix the south side parking entrance. IMO, it's one of the worst stretches of street front in the city.

Thank you :) good to know

Does anyone know what “people mover” refers to? Are we talking a short distance train (like ATL, PHX, DFW), a moving walkway, or some shuttle bus type operation?

The Intermobile Transit Center (ITC) was the originally proposed site for the trolley connection before this whole SPAWAR shebang started. If it isn't clear from the map, the ITC is across PCH from the north economy lot, in-between the Washington St trolley station and the rental car center (where that video was taken). The land is owned by the port and currently leased out for warehouses and parking lots.

Although it hasn't been as publicly vocal as some of the other factions the ITC is the airport's preferred option, as it presents the fewest engineering/political questions. Developing the SPAWAR site requires a complex 3-way negotiation between the current working group of local municipal agencies (SANDAG, NCTD, the Port, the city, and the airport), the Navy, and a private developer to provide funding, plus some level of negotiation with the Marines for the ROW to reach it. A tunnel simplifies the latter issue, but significantly increases the cost and reduces ridership by skipping potential station sites at harbor island and the rental car center. A direct trolley connection faces the difficulties of getting around the heavy rail lines running alongside the current trolley tracks between them and the airport. Going under is expensive, and going over presents issues with height limits around the airport (hardcore safety ones the FAA is not going to wiggle around on).

The SPAWAR site though has the advantages of greater East/West accessibility, a larger land area, and the potential for a P3 to defray a significant portion or even all of the costs. The ITC is a good site for a combined trolley, COASTER, and CAHSR station that compliments the Santa Fe depot. The SPAWAR site presents the opportunity to replace the Santa Fe depot entirely, reducing the depot to a stub end solely for downtown travelers. But to take full advantage you'll need to build an extremely large station (larger that LA Union Station by the current estimates), East/West high speed rail transit along the 8 freeway corridor to bring in more people, and remove coastal height limits in the Midway Pacific area so developers can make scratch building a set of skyscrapers around it. Otherwise the ridership will be similar to the ITC, which could be partially funded by the airport and a smaller P3 in a much more reliable fashion.

Re: south side of Horton Plaza, some of other renderings I've seen have the parking garages replaced with high rises. That might be something for a future development phase, after this one which seems mostly focused on renovations and conversions vs new development.

Re: Navy tower going up first at the Pacific Gateway, whenever I run a P3 where the private partner is building a separate piece of infrastructure for me it's going to be written in the contract that the developer is required to build all or a significant portion of my project before he can start on his. It ensures the developer will be properly focused on upholding his end of the bargain in a timely fashion and provide the quality I expect (or I'll just refuse accept the keys and his project will be left on hold). Also provides nice insurance against the developer running out of money mid-project. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Navy is running their P3 in the same way.

Automated rail transit like ATL, DFW, or the under construction system at LAX.

http://gannettfleming.com/~/media/Im...rainStage2.jpg

Example image from PHX

I like option #2.

Might not be the cheapest or easiest but I think it would be best choice for the long term...

1 is probably too expensive. 4 is probably too hard to do right.

What is the difference between SPAWAR and ITC?

I don't see it being much different besides needing less track for ITC

SPAWAR
Pros:
More space, enough for a transit hub comparable to LA union station
Better connections to an E/W transit line (still hypothetical at this point)
Enough extra land that a potential P3 could cover most/all of the cost

Cons:
Will need to negotiate with the Navy to acquire land
Will need to negotiate with a private developer for P3
Will need to negotiate with Marines for ROW on option 2
All of the above have very different goals which only tangentially relate to a transit hub, balancing them will be difficult
SD will need to make numerous land use changes and other infrastructure investments to really take advantage of SPAWAR's additional capacity.

ITC
Pros:
No major land acquisition issues
Close enough that the FAA might let airport help pay
Likely less expensive option overall

Cons:
Smaller land area, will be difficult to in fit new transit lines beyond what already exists
Proximity to airport will limit building heights, reducing value of potential P3
No extra land, also reducing value of potential P3
Possibility of taxpayers footing a larger portion of the final bill than SPAWAR

In short SPAWAR has the potential for a larger, more capable facility at less cost to the taxpayers, but we don't know really what we're getting right now or if we even want to make the infrastructure investments necessary to use that capacity. With the ITC you know exactly what you're getting and how much value it will bring, but that firmly defined concept brings less benefit than SPAWAR might bring if everything goes well.

I think if we have learned anything in this city, it is that complex deals can take DECADES. In the case of SPAWAR, the land use issues could take a lifetime to sort out. Besides ITC being closer to downtown, it could move much faster and could fit better with the long term changes to the airport if things like the Northside terminals are ever constructed.

SPAWAR is the next Pacific Gate/NBC IMO.

Good analysis, Will-o.

I support SPAWAR as a long term solution, and generally, bolder initiatives that get the job done right instead of half-assed incrementalism.

A lot of San Diego's history is "but it's too hard" and look what that's gotten us, lol.

It'll be fun to see how this plays out :nerd:

Seriously... Our civic center was planned to be on a street lined with classical architecture, but we have the piece of shit in the core right now. I love Coronado bridge but if it wasn’t for its curvature it’s just a plain old bridge no different than the 805 freeway passing through mission valley lol we could’ve had something more iconic... then the whole deal about creating a mass transit system for our region similar to the BART up in the Bay Area, but we half-assed and ended up with our light rail system.

Besides the creation of Balboa Park and bringing us the Exposition, San Diego doesn’t tend to be as bold as Los Angeles or San Francisco when building things.

Recession about to hit.... Will 7th and Market Survive?
 

I drive Uber and had a passenger who dealt with that new hotel about to open on Broadway (Old YMCA Building) said it was just a 50 million dollar project and the financing process was unbelievably complicated and rigorous. So imagine 7th/Market which with steel tariffs is probably now a 450 million dollar tower.

Just google DOW Jones average today and look at the recession and trade war fears that pop up in the articles below. The yield curve on bonds has inverted again. Not looking good guys... 7th and Market is so crucial to filling in gaps in our skyline and truly bulking it up and giving us a decent skyline for a metro of our size.

Let's pray financing is announced soon :worship:

I was on Harbor Island and looking at the big gap on Southside of Skyline Manchester Project will fill the gap from the West side of Harbor Island and 7th/Mark will fill it from the East Side towards the Tom Ham's light house restaurant. I call the projects the Gap Fillers :cheers: