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thenoflyzone Feb 12, 2021 2:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory (Post 9188683)
https://tc.canada.ca/en/aviation/com...planatory-note

This mentions YYZ/YUL-Europe, as well as Panama, Colombia and Israel.

Panama, Columbia and Israel are mentioned most likely because the bilateral with those countries only allows 2 designated airlines from Canada (and they happen to be AC and TS, as both those airlines serve/or have served those markets. TS briefly flew YUL-TLV a few summers ago, then discontinued the route. TS also flies YUL-Cartagena in winter.) So it's a given new entrants would replace TS as designated airline, if they so choose to do so. It's more of a procedural cleanup, more than anything else.

Quote:

Competition and Public Interest Measures
Slot Dominance

Terms and Conditions have been designed to minimize the impact of the acquired entity’s slot dominance at Montreal-Trudeau and Toronto-Pearson airports on routes to European destinations, thereby facilitating the future emergence of new entrants and increased competition on these routes. “Slot surrender” is a structural competition remedy commonly used in airline mergers and acquisitions as a way of limiting the dominance of the merged carrier and promoting competition. The goal of slot surrender is to attract new entrants, which in turn, brings with it a number of spinoff public interest benefits, such as competitive pricing, improved connectivity, and increased consumer choice. The slot surrender remedy mechanism would apply on a relevant city-pair basis. In response to concerns raised by the Commissioner and in the PIA, new entrants will have the opportunity to avail themselves of increased access to airport infrastructure at relevant Canadian airports.
It was a given there was going to be slot surrender at YYZ and YUL. Now let's see if new entrants will take the bait. It will have to be on relevant city-pairs between YYZ/YUL and Europe.

The fact that AC will be required to codeshare with these new entrants and grant access to Aeroplan and its Maple Leaf lounges on domestic legs is interesting as well.

Quote:

In addition to the slot surrender and airport infrastructure commitments, new entrants will be able to avail themselves of interline and fare-combinability agreements with Air Canada to offer feeder service within Canada and a full schedule; give their customers access to Air Canada’s frequent flyer (Aeroplan) points program; and allow customers access to the Maple Leaf lounges at specific Canadian airports. These additional measures would serve to enhance a new entrant’s competitiveness with the acquired entity when starting a service on these routes, and would be available to eligible new entrants for periods of five or ten years, depending on the relevant city-pair, upon the closing of the Proposed Transaction.
The likelihood of a bunch of new entrants jumping on these routes is very low. WS might jump on a few routes, but that's about it. And even that might not happen for a few more years. I don't see many European carriers taking over TS/Rouge leisure routes from YYZ/YUL to secondary European airports.

The pandemic will minimize the impact of these terms and restrictions on AC/TS. A very thin silver lining, so to speak.

hollywoodcory Feb 12, 2021 3:24 PM

WestJet has responded and they ain’t pleased.
https://westjet.mediaroom.com/2021-0...to-competition

Dominion301 Feb 12, 2021 6:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory (Post 9189008)
WestJet has responded and they ain’t pleased.
https://westjet.mediaroom.com/2021-0...to-competition

It's easy for WestJet to say that given how little overlap there is between WS and TS and how ridiculously weak WS are in Quebec (in 'normal' times).

It's also kinda rich coming from the airline that created Swoop with the sole purposes of stifling ULCC competition & putting Flair out of business.

p_xavier Feb 12, 2021 6:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9189251)
It's easy for WestJet to say that given how little overlap there is between WS and TS and how ridiculously weak WS are in Quebec (in 'normal' times).

It's also kinda rich coming from the airline that created Swoop with the sole purposes of stifling ULCC competition & putting Flair out of business.

WestJet would have been a great match for TS, I'm actually surprised Onex didn't acquire them, they would have been complimentary.

wave46 Feb 12, 2021 6:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by p_xavier (Post 9189284)
WestJet would have been a great match for TS, I'm actually surprised Onex didn't acquired them, they would have been complimentary.

I agree and I've mentioned this too.

AC jumped on that before somebody at Onex put 2 and 2 together. It makes sense that AC did from a strategic point of view - I'm just mostly surprised that the screaming from Quebec wasn't louder. They'll get hosed in Montreal.

If I was going to lose the only competition via a buyout sanctioned by the "Competition Bureau" and have my market become a one-horse town, I'd be angrier.

AC got its way.

CityTech Feb 12, 2021 7:30 PM

Doesn't the European Union have to approve the merger as well?

LO 044 Feb 12, 2021 8:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9189251)
It's easy for WestJet to say that given how little overlap there is between WS and TS and how ridiculously weak WS are in Quebec (in 'normal' times).

It's also kinda rich coming from the airline that created Swoop with the sole purposes of stifling ULCC competition & putting Flair out of business.

I agree with your Swoop comment but AC has done many of the same "rich" things before like merging with Canadian Airlines, Zip, Tango, etc. They are just as afraid of competition as WS is.

AC and TS are two Quebec based companies. Is anyone surprised that the Trudeau government has essentially placed zero limitations on this merger? The funny thing is that prices in the east will simply go up. No one in the west cares about Air Transat and i doubt AC will increase their Sun destinations from Western Canada with TS aircraft.

wave46 Feb 12, 2021 8:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9189251)
It's easy for WestJet to say that given how little overlap there is between WS and TS and how ridiculously weak WS are in Quebec (in 'normal' times).

It's also kinda rich coming from the airline that created Swoop with the sole purposes of stifling ULCC competition & putting Flair out of business.

It's one thing to set up a competitor. AC Rouge and Transat were competitors, nobody whined.

It's another to buy out a competitor wholescale and use it to monopolize a large segment of flying and effectively reduce competition.

Truenorth00 Feb 12, 2021 9:43 PM

...

Pegasus Feb 12, 2021 9:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer (Post 9188895)
"The world" will not all have been vaccinated by October. A return to normal by then seems unduly optimistic to me.

Agreed. Also, no one knows how long "immunity" will last from any of these vaccines, nor how effective they are against the new variants. I hope that after three annual cycles COVID will "disappear" like the Spanish flu of 1918 and become just another ordinary flu. I hope . . .

thenoflyzone Feb 12, 2021 9:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wave46 (Post 9189301)
I agree and I've mentioned this too.

AC jumped on that before somebody at Onex put 2 and 2 together. It makes sense that AC did from a strategic point of view - I'm just mostly surprised that the screaming from Quebec wasn't louder. They'll get hosed in Montreal.

If I was going to lose the only competition via a buyout sanctioned by the "Competition Bureau" and have my market become a one-horse town, I'd be angrier.

AC got its way.

The competition Bureau's report was overwhelmingly negative about this merger. They clearly stated that competition will be diminished on several routes, and that the likelihood of new entrants to make up for it was low, especially now, in a pandemic.

That being said, if the government Council approves the merger, I doubt the Commissioner of the Bureau will apply to the Competition Tribunal for an order to prevent, dissolve or alter the merger, like he can do.

We'll see what happens.

Buy yes, AC definitely go it's way, and WS is just playing sore loser. And yes, YUL passengers (and anyone who transits YUL, like people from Ottawa, Quebec City and the Maritimes) will lose the most with this.

stephan.richard Feb 13, 2021 12:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9189552)
The competition Bureau's report was overwhelmingly negative about this merger. They clearly stated that competition will be diminished on several routes, and that the likelihood of new entrants to make up for it was low, especially now, in a pandemic.

That being said, if the government Council approves the merger, I doubt the Commissioner of the Bureau will apply to the Competition Tribunal for an order to prevent, dissolve or alter the merger, like he can do.

We'll see what happens.

Buy yes, AC definitely go it's way, and WS is just playing sore loser. And yes, YUL passengers (and anyone who transits YUL, like people from Ottawa, Quebec City and the Maritimes) will lose the most with this.

I agree with you on this. Living in the east coast we are so used to getting screwed over by airlines. If WestJet had eastern Canada’s interest at heart we would still have flights out of New Brunswick and PEI. And WestJet should’ve put a bid to buy Transat but they didn’t have time. In Canada the big two are so afraid that a competitor cuts their market share.
I applaud carriers like Flair(Canada’s version of Spirit Airlines], Nolinor, Porter to try to bring some competition. And I think we should start allowing Spirit, Aligeant, Southwest, and Frontier fair access to the Canadian market to increase competition on many routes including flights to sun destinations and probably opening up new markets.

thenoflyzone Feb 13, 2021 12:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stephan.richard (Post 9189693)
And I think we should start allowing Spirit, Aligeant, Southwest, and Frontier fair access to the Canadian market to increase competition on many routes including flights to sun destinations and probably opening up new markets.

Nothing is preventing Spirit, Allegiant, Southwest and Frontier from flying to Canada. (Frontier did so to YYC before the pandemic).

The reason most of these US LCCs or ULCCs don’t is because of the high Canadian airport fees and all the taxes (US and Canadian) on transborder flights. Airlines like Allegiant and Spirit served Plattsburgh before the pandemic, specifically targeting Montreal O&D. In doing so, they can offer very competitive fares, due to lower costs.

casper Feb 13, 2021 3:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9189251)
It's easy for WestJet to say that given how little overlap there is between WS and TS and how ridiculously weak WS are in Quebec (in 'normal' times).

It's also kinda rich coming from the airline that created Swoop with the sole purposes of stifling ULCC competition & putting Flair out of business.

WS is coming across as lacking strategic thinking as of late.

The did not recognize the opportunity of being TS being strategic to them.

When they try to go out and kill a ULCC competitor they fail miserably. Flair is as strong as ever.

They fail to start flying cargo when the opportunity presents itself.

hollywoodcory Feb 13, 2021 3:58 AM

Speaking of WS, based on the schedule update they filed in the OAG tonight they have removed LGW until May 5 and all other European destinations including CDG until June.

Additionally only YYC/YYZ-LGW are scheduled in May. YVR/YHZ-LGW were removed until June.

adam-machiavelli Feb 13, 2021 6:41 AM

Wow there's a lot of 737MAXs in that schedule. If the public doesn't trust airlines for spreading the Pandemic, they definitely won't trust them for bringing back that flying death machine.

LO 044 Feb 13, 2021 7:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adam-machiavelli (Post 9189948)
Wow there's a lot of 737MAXs in that schedule. If the public doesn't trust airlines for spreading the Pandemic, they definitely won't trust them for bringing back that flying death machine.

Air Canada, WestJet and Sunwing fly 737 Max aircraft. If you want to fly to/from Canada you will have little choice.

There's another thing. People tend to forget and/or move on and on top of that the world is much more selfish than it used to be. As long as there is a flight to Miami or Cancun available, people will go. The pandemic will actually help the 737 Max because so many people want to go on vacation and will fly a Tupolev 154 if necessary let alone a 737 Max.

hollywoodcory Feb 13, 2021 7:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adam-machiavelli (Post 9189948)
Wow there's a lot of 737MAXs in that schedule. If the public doesn't trust airlines for spreading the Pandemic, they definitely won't trust them for bringing back that flying death machine.

Are you talking about WS in March? I only see once daily YYC-YYZ for the max. The real noteworthy thing is that route is down to just two flights a day, when they used to have up to 10!

Even YYC-YVR appears just 2-3x daily.

Djeffery Feb 13, 2021 4:34 PM

I'm old enough to remember the DC-10 being grounded and people got over it.

Dominion301 Feb 13, 2021 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stephan.richard (Post 9189693)
I agree with you on this. Living in the east coast we are so used to getting screwed over by airlines. If WestJet had eastern Canada’s interest at heart we would still have flights out of New Brunswick and PEI. And WestJet should’ve put a bid to buy Transat but they didn’t have time. In Canada the big two are so afraid that a competitor cuts their market share.
I applaud carriers like Flair(Canada’s version of Spirit Airlines], Nolinor, Porter to try to bring some competition. And I think we should start allowing Spirit, Aligeant, Southwest, and Frontier fair access to the Canadian market to increase competition on many routes including flights to sun destinations and probably opening up new markets.

The US carriers have had 5th freedom traffic rights out of Canada to a plethora of places for the past 15 years since full Open Skies. Eastern’s upcoming 5th freedom out of YYZ is the first US carrier to ever take advantage.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pegasus (Post 9189544)
Agreed. Also, no one knows how long "immunity" will last from any of these vaccines, nor how effective they are against the new variants. I hope that after three annual cycles COVID will "disappear" like the Spanish flu of 1918 and become just another ordinary flu. I hope . . .

Hopefully by the end of 2021 things turn the corner, but like you said, who knows how long immunity will last. The current vaccines don’t seem to be effective yet against the South African strain. Also, the vaccines have yet to be tested on anyone under what 16? The pandemic of the 1880s lasted 5 years. One thing’s for sure, we’re gearing up for wave 3 given the eagerness of our premiers to confirm the definition of insanity.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LO 044 (Post 9189395)
I agree with your Swoop comment but AC has done many of the same "rich" things before like merging with Canadian Airlines, Zip, Tango, etc. They are just as afraid of competition as WS is.

AC and TS are two Quebec based companies. Is anyone surprised that the Trudeau government has essentially placed zero limitations on this merger? The funny thing is that prices in the east will simply go up. No one in the west cares about Air Transat and i doubt AC will increase their Sun destinations from Western Canada with TS aircraft.

The AC of old tried those tricks, fully agreed, but let’s be clear, CP was forced upon AC. Would have been way cheaper for AC to have let CP go under and then pick the carcass (namely the LHR slots and Asian routes). Rouge was never created to put the likes of Flair out of business.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wave46 (Post 9189301)
I agree and I've mentioned this too.

AC jumped on that before somebody at Onex put 2 and 2 together. It makes sense that AC did from a strategic point of view - I'm just mostly surprised that the screaming from Quebec wasn't louder. They'll get hosed in Montreal.

If I was going to lose the only competition via a buyout sanctioned by the "Competition Bureau" and have my market become a one-horse town, I'd be angrier.

AC got its way.

The screaming ironically would have been way louder had “les anglais de l’ouest” taken over TS. With AC, it keeps everything “chez nous”.

AC removing TS as a competitor, opens up opportunities for Flair, Nolinor’s OWG, Jetlines, now that Global X’s launch appears imminent and (dare I say it) WS. WS whine about it, yet 3 years ago pulled out of YUL-sun routes and vastly reduced everything non-YYZ to the sun. How is that AC’s fault?


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