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zahav Nov 8, 2019 9:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster (Post 8741256)
I'm shocked YVR was up for September given everthing going on. AisaPac was down 1.1%, which looks bad until you realize that total seats available were down over 7%, so yields were way up. Even more surprising given the situation in Vancouver's biggest international market, HongKong. I too expect things to turn around, though probably not for another year at YVR. Summer 2020 cuts look even more severe than 2019 as Air Transat has all but abandoned the market, WestJet does not seem interested in growing YVR, and Air Canada has no frames left to provide any growth.

I bet 2021 is a big year though, people still need to get places and the demand sure seems to be there.

I think the growth will be tempered ya, but not outrageously bad. I don't agree totally with the comments about TS and WS though. TS have abandoned YEG, virtually abandoned YYC, but YVR isn't there (yet). They basically got rid of 3 LGW flights and the couple CDG flights. Still have 3x weekly LGW, 3x weekly MAN, 3x weekly AMS, and 3x week PVR this summer. As well as 12x weekly to YYZ and 7x weekly to YUL. It surely isn't "good" and is a sign of shifting focus, but I wouldn't categorize as 'abandoned the market'. YYC only has 4x weekly to YYZ and 4x weekly to YUL, none to Europe or sun spots. And YEG is at zero this summer. Those would be more categorized as abandoned.

WS really hasn't done tons in general across their network, I don't think YVR is being ignored really. They shifted service to a Dreamliner and made it daily, so that was something. They added 3x weekly Rome from YYC, which is good but not exactly earth shattering, it's something TS could have done years ago and wouldn't have made much noise about (I think they did it from YVR one summer!). I definitely am not downplaying the news, but I don't think it was a slight to YVR that YYC got that, it made total sense and wasn't taking anything from us here. YYZ hasn't gotten much more than YVR has from WS, so that says something.

Interesting that HX just filed updates for summer 2020. They reduced YVR from 5x weekly to 4x but still scheduled. They flat out cancelled tons of destinations including LAX, but still keeping YVR there. I wonder if we'll be the last one standing before it crumbles?

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38...as-of-07nov19/

hollywoodcory Nov 13, 2019 4:56 PM

WS has updated is MAX schedule removing it until February 4. They are the slowest airline in North America when it comes to updating its MAX schedule.

https://blog.westjet.com/westjet-upd...bruary-4-2020/

Only domestic / transborder routes were effected.

thenoflyzone Nov 13, 2019 6:40 PM

Ethiopian yet again mentions YUL
 
Ethiopian wants daily flights to YYZ and is hopeful of launching YUL as well. It might take a few years for the bilateral to get updated, but they are hopeful the approval might happen next year. I have my doubts. (TK at YVR was several years in the making. This will probably be no different)

https://simpleflying.com/ethiopian-m...ht-permission/

Quote:

At today’s Ethiopian Airlines inaugural A350 arrival event at Toronto Pearson International, we found out that the airline is working towards launching an Addis Ababa to Montreal flight. In a speech to media at the event, Samson Arega, Ethiopian Airlines Canada Country Manager informed those present that the Ethiopian flag carrier was seeking approval from Transport Canada to launch the route.

thenoflyzone Nov 13, 2019 10:55 PM

Looks like Aer Lingus wont be starting Montreal in the short term. Doesn't surprise me. AC has YUL-DUB well covered.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/bu...r-summer-2020/

Quote:

Aer Lingus will increase frequencies to several US destinations next summer, taking it to its biggest ever capacity to North America.

However the airline confirmed to Business Traveller that it would cancel its previously announced Dublin-Montreal route due to the delayed delivery of its A321LR aircraft.

The route was meant to begin in summer 2019 but was initially pushed back a year.

In a statement, the airline said:

“Aer Lingus will not be commencing its Dublin-Montreal service as previously announced.

“The later than expected delivery in 2019 of our A321LR aircraft meant that the opportunity to commence operation of the Montreal service in time for the summer season did not materialise.

“Following a review we have decided to focus our 2020 growth plans on expanding the depth of our transatlantic schedule on existing destinations.

“Montreal will remain on our shortlisted future network plan but we do not expect to commence service on the route in the short term.”

SignalHillHiker Nov 14, 2019 10:03 PM

It was raised today in the House of Assembly. :) Still seems to be picking up steam. I imagine our airport authority is going to come into some cash and buy a restoration.

Video Link

YYCguys Nov 14, 2019 10:29 PM

I wonder if AC will pick up the route, as WS seems content and happy with the YHZ-DUB flight. I highly doubt they would have both a YHZ and a YYT flight to DUB. It would likely be one or the other. However, regardless of who picks it up (IF I gets reinstated) I imagine the airfares would be quite high from YYT if there’s no competitor.

SignalHillHiker Nov 14, 2019 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YYCguys (Post 8748933)
I wonder if AC will pick up the route, as WS seems content and happy with the YHZ-DUB flight. I highly doubt they would have both a YHZ and a YYT flight to DUB. It would likely be one or the other. However, regardless of who picks it up (IF I gets reinstated) I imagine the airfares would be quite high from YYT if there’s no competitor.

It probably would, but it's worth it. We still have our direct flight to London but it's just... not the same. Like this Facebook group, most of the activity is from Irish people, not Newfoundlanders:

https://i.postimg.cc/cHwGXqgK/Capture.png

And the university in Waterford is lobbying hardcore for the flight, their Department of Newfoundland Studies.

And really, it's become quite clear it was bought from us. WestJet said it was their most successful launch of any route ever, and their own numbers showed it only went up from there. Money talks. We can get it back if we play as hard as they did. We just have an airport authority run like a local legion, with the same caliber of members. That's what the public's push is likely going to change.

And certainly in Europe flight shame is picking up speed. The number taking trains from London to Scotland to reduce their carbon footprint, as opposed to flying, is as high as its ever been. Sweden, too, is seeing the effects. It'll get ever harder to justify doubling our flight time by making us fly west and back again before ever moving a foot toward Europe. Just put one fucking plane down, even a few days a week. Less than hour of time for passengers from TO and HFX to pop down and pick us up isn't worth more than a day of ours. The majority of flights between North America and Europe, even the American ones, passes right over us. Just land for a few minutes.

https://i.postimg.cc/cHBhhTm7/http-c...hways-in-t.jpg

someone123 Nov 14, 2019 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YYCguys (Post 8748933)
I wonder if AC will pick up the route, as WS seems content and happy with the YHZ-DUB flight. I highly doubt they would have both a YHZ and a YYT flight to DUB. It would likely be one or the other. However, regardless of who picks it up (IF I gets reinstated) I imagine the airfares would be quite high from YYT if there’s no competitor.

The demographics are very lopsided in favour of YHZ and they keep getting more lopsided. The Maritimes and just the island of Newfoundland are about the same size, but the Maritimes have 1.9M people and rising while Newfoundland has 0.5M and falling. The Maritimes also have much better internal transportation connections.

PEI has at times subsidized flights out of Charlottetown. It's up to Newfoundland what they do with their money I guess, but subsidizing tourist trips to and from Dublin for well off people doesn't seem like a great use of public dollars. Maybe the economics will change in the future and make it viable for NL to have its own direct flight without traffic from other places.

SignalHillHiker Nov 14, 2019 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by someone123 (Post 8748964)
The demographics are very lopsided in favour of YHZ and they keep getting more lopsided. The Maritimes and just the island of Newfoundland are about the same size, but the Maritimes have 1.9M people and rising while Newfoundland has 0.5M and falling.

PEI has at times subsidized flights out of Charlottetown but this actually caused some trouble for them due to the inter-carrier rivalries. It's up to Newfoundland what they do with their money I guess. Maybe the economics will change in the future and make it viable for NL to have its own direct flight without traffic from other places.

I will eat a sock, film it, post it, if anyone can demonstrate that there is one single flight from HFX to Dublin that isn't at least 50% comprised of connecting passengers from St. John's.

I've only gone to Ireland once since the direct connection was stopped, and there were like four separate planeloads of passengers from St. John's on it. We were all chatting and carrying on in the boarding area at Pearson.

I mentioned that a few times here and heard the same thing, over and over. Three days worth of flights of people going from St. John's to Halifax to shop at IKEA seems to be the majority of passengers of Halifax's direct flight to Dublin.

Is there any way to get those stats? Because, as my signature notes, I struggle in this area. :haha: But holy shit everyone I know has flown to Dublin and all of them who've gone to HFX first have noted the flight was mostly Newfoundlanders.

someone123 Nov 14, 2019 11:04 PM

I am not sure where you'd get those numbers. I think there's a lot of self-sorting on those flights; certain ones happen to connect up well so they fill up with more of a certain type of passenger.

Isn't it in the best interests of the airlines to fly passengers a shorter distance when possible?

SignalHillHiker Nov 14, 2019 11:11 PM

Normally, yes.

Two things at play in this particular example - St. John's charges airlines more to use the airport than Halifax, not just in landing fees but in everything (this is where we fucked up - our airport authority saw the Dublin connection as a popular flight they could milk for every nickel, instead of something they should all but give away to increase business overall - a Marine Atlantic mentality, really, where the ferry service is constitutionally guaranteed at a reasonable price, but that doesn't exist for air travel).

On top of that, the normal Canadian problems - a near-monopoly, dispersed population, lack of concern about the environment, etc. have led to a hub and spoke system, where airlines really wouldn't give a shit if you have to fly from St. John's to Yellowknife to get to Tampa as long as every single one of those flights is full and easy to administer.

wave46 Nov 14, 2019 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker (Post 8748970)
I will eat a sock, film it, post it, if anyone can demonstrate that there is one single flight from HFX to Dublin that isn't at least 50% comprised of connecting passengers from St. John's.

I've only gone to Ireland once since the direct connection was stopped, and there were like four separate planeloads of passengers from St. John's on it. We were all chatting and carrying on in the boarding area at Pearson.

I mentioned that a few times here and heard the same thing, over and over. Three days worth of flights of people going from St. John's to Halifax to shop at IKEA seems to be the majority of passengers of Halifax's direct flight to Dublin.

Is there any way to get those stats? Because, as my signature notes, I struggle in this area. :haha: But holy shit everyone I know has flown to Dublin and all of them who've gone to HFX first have noted the flight was mostly Newfoundlanders.

I'd be curious if Westjet could do it as a multistop service - start in Halifax, make a stop in St. John's and off to Dublin, even just seasonally. (I can't imagine Ireland in wintertime being much of a draw)

I know it's not the way most airlines do things nowadays, but if what you say might be true, it might work. There's probably enough Halifax to St. John's passengers to make the thing work for local service anyway and since you're flying in that direction, why not?

I mean, all bets are off right now with the 737MAX grounding, but in the future.

someone123 Nov 14, 2019 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wave46 (Post 8748994)
I'd be curious if Westjet could do it as a multistop service - start in Halifax, make a stop in St. John's and off to Dublin, even just seasonally. (I can't imagine Ireland in wintertime being much of a draw)

I think this is what most of the transcontinental flights out of St. John's have been. Either YYZ -> YYT -> Europe or YHZ -> YYT -> Europe.

YYZ and YHZ both have a bunch of direct European flights. YHZ has 6 (7 with Reykjavik) and YYZ no doubt has far more. So there are a lot of non-stop options to choose from. It's not the case that there's a little bit of traffic from the Maritimes that could be served by putting those people on the St. John's Dublin flight.

SignalHillHiker Nov 14, 2019 11:35 PM

I think the Dublin direct that we want back originated in Toronto. There were always already a half dozen people on it when you got on, even if you were first.

SignalHillHiker Nov 14, 2019 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by someone123 (Post 8749002)
YYZ and YHZ both have a bunch of direct European flights. YHZ has 6 (7 with Reykjavik) and YYZ no doubt has far more. So there are a lot of non-stop options to choose from.

Not picking on ya, but this reminds me of that meme that went around locally with a map of the world where China, India, and St. John's were shaded red: "Like half the world's population lives in the red areas."

someone123 Nov 14, 2019 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker (Post 8749008)
Not picking on ya, but this reminds me of that meme that went around locally with a map of the world where China, India, and St. John's were shaded red: "Like half the world's population lives in the red areas."

I'm not trying to make it sound like YHZ and YYZ are the same. But I am pointing out that there's a decent amount of traffic from YHZ and there are options of where to fly non-stop in Europe. The situation is different from what it would be if there were 1 European milk run for Atlantic Canada.

The annual passenger count for YHZ is 4.3M. YYT is 1.5M. Winnipeg and Ottawa are 4.5M and 5.1M.

Another factor is that once you're in Europe it's much cheaper to travel than it is in Canada.

SignalHillHiker Nov 14, 2019 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by someone123 (Post 8749012)
I'm not trying to make it sound like YHZ and YYZ are the same. But I am pointing out that there's a decent amount of traffic from YHZ and there are options of where to fly non-stop in Europe. The situation is different from what it would be if there were 1 European milk run for Atlantic Canada.

The annual passenger count for YHZ is 4.3M. YYT is 1.5M. Winnipeg and Ottawa are 4.5M and 5.1M.

Oh I know, I'm just cracking up at it. I'd say the same if you were posting about here.

q12 Nov 14, 2019 11:58 PM

Westjet and Halifax have joined forces to brand Halifax as a stopover destination:

https://discoverhalifaxns.com/stopover-halifax/

https://discoverhalifaxns.com/wp-con...0-1030x579.jpg

Here is the latest route map for Halifax Stanfield:

https://i.ibb.co/1mKMQVK/yhzmap.png

SignalHillHiker Nov 15, 2019 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by q12 (Post 8749022)
Here is the latest route map for Halifax Stanfield:

https://i.ibb.co/1mKMQVK/yhzmap.png

You guys have as many links to Newfoundland as to the rest of the Maritimes, and half as many to Newfoundland as to the rest of Canada beyond the Maritimes combined. :D Ugh, aggravating. YYT should be a separate, smaller hub on its own. If I wanted to fly to Goose Bay I'd have to use our provincial airline, which is mostly for MHAs and federal government employees so they charge $1K, $2K, whatever, doesn't matter. Someone in Guelph is subsidizing it. But for us to join in, not possible. It's cheaper to drive/ferry for 4 days and take the hotels lol

Our attempt (same number of year-round service flights to Europe and the beaches, at least lol):

https://i.postimg.cc/htmYkk1c/SJIAA-...p-Jan-2019.jpg

wave46 Nov 15, 2019 12:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker (Post 8749036)
You guys have as many links to Newfoundland as to the rest of the Maritimes, and half as many to Newfoundland as to the rest of Canada beyond the Maritimes combined. :D Ugh, aggravating. YYT should be a separate, smaller hub on its own. If I wanted to fly to Goose Bay I'd have to use our provincial airline, which is mostly for MHAs and federal government employees so they charge $1K, $2K, whatever, doesn't matter. Someone in Guelph is subsidizing it. But for us to join in, not possible. It's cheaper to drive/ferry for 4 days and take the hotels lol

The route map of Halifax might as well have Nelson Muntz under it pointing at YYT and saying 'ha-ha'.


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