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westendtoronto Aug 1, 2019 3:12 AM

Hey everyone! I wanted to make my first post on this thread as it has some really interesting discussions. :cheers:

I noticed back in the older masterplan for Pearson that their capacity is 50 million passengers a year. 2019 looks like they are about to hit (and pass) that plateau. What's next for them when it comes to capacity? YVR and YUL both seem to be making upgrades at the moment, but YYZ is currently status quo with major construction of any new gates or piers, even though they are doing small upgrades here and there? :shrug:

zahav Aug 1, 2019 6:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G.S MTL (Post 8645534)
May 1 602 080 +5.5%
June 1 836 408 +4.2%

YTD 9 684 355 +5.7%

Domestic

May 582 124 +3.2%
June 589 769 +0.1%

Transborder

May 361 156 +1.5%
June 381 054 -0.1%

International

May 608 849 +10.6%
June 783 894 +10.4



Pretty strong on international but Domestic and trans... yikes.

I think most airports are having some "yikes" stats at the moment, it's nothing to worry about. There was some pretty unsustainable growth seen at YUL and YVR (and likely others) so a moderation isn't such an unnatural thing. But with that said, call it what it is. saying "Overall numbers and intl numbers are the two most important ones" is a cop-out, other sectors matter too, you can't cherry pick which ones are "important" because they happened to have the better results.

thenoflyzone Aug 1, 2019 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav (Post 8646929)
I think most airports are having some "yikes" stats at the moment, it's nothing to worry about. There was some pretty unsustainable growth seen at YUL and YVR (and likely others) so a moderation isn't such an unnatural thing. But with that said, call it what it is. saying "Overall numbers and intl numbers are the two most important ones" is a cop-out, other sectors matter too, you can't cherry pick which ones are "important" because they happened to have the better results.

Pretty sure If we were to take a poll, overall numbers would matter the most, followed by a close second by international numbers, especially for an airport like YUL, where Intl non-US is the biggest slice of the passenger pie.

You are entitled to your own opinion though.

rbt Aug 1, 2019 1:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by westendtoronto (Post 8646867)
... but YYZ is currently status quo with major construction of any new gates or piers.

Pier G (or the expanded Gate 193 extension) has been under construction for some time now and will add 7 or 8 gates mostly narrow-body aircraft (737, A320, ...); maybe a 767 in a few spots. I expect it will quietly open sometime in late 2020.


It is kinda funny that they tore down Terminal 2 for being too cramped and warehouse like, and the rise of budget/discount airlines has created a demand for budget/discount terminal space very similar to Terminal 2.

Pier H will probably be built in several phases over a 20 year period with a few gates added here and there, similar to how Pier G was built. The airlines are currently more concerned with gate fees than they are with crowding and look.


The master plan (page 63) also shows a few new gates for Pier A, and a Pier D expansion connecting Terminal 1 and Terminal 3.
https://tpprodcdnep.azureedge.net/-/...6A7456D7F2D53F

FlyYOW Aug 1, 2019 3:01 PM

Re: statistics, chalking up retraction in passenger growth for TB and to a lesser extent DOM to MAX may be tempting, but I'm not sure I see it.

Say for YUL, you'd expect MAX to be the explanation for negative pax growth on TB if previously there were TB routes, existing or planned, that were scaled back or suspended or delayed in launching due to THIS aircraft being grounded. Is it so? What route(s)? If not, then other factors are at play. Same questions for DOM, although the use of MAX on DOM was likely more prevalent, thus more of a factor.

Food for thought ... I don't have any skin in the game.

thenoflyzone Aug 1, 2019 3:59 PM

In May and June, all of AC’s summer seasonal long haul routes kicked in. Therefore there is less slack in the wide body fleet to do domestic or US runs, which is what they were doing in March and April to cover for the Max.

Also, based on figures from another forum, YUL-California is around 9 or 10,000 less seats/month due to the Max grounding.

SFUVancouver Aug 1, 2019 4:14 PM

YVR non-aeronautical business venture
 
The following news story isn't necessarily conventional airport development-related, but it's worth sharing because YVR generates significant non-aeronautical revenue ($250M in 2018, up 6.2%) that it reinvests back into operations and capital projects. Some of this non-aeronautical revenue flows from its 50% stake in the McArthurGlen Designer Outlet mall on the eastern end of the airport. A modest expansion is nearing completion (undertaken by the in-house YVR Project Management team) and the first round of new retailers have been announced:

Quote:

First new retailers announced for McArthurGlen Vancouver Airport Outlet Mall expansion
Kenneth Chan | Jul 31 2019, 11:18 am

After more than a year of construction, the second phase expansion of McArthurGlen Designer Outlet Vancouver Airport shopping centre is set to open on Saturday, August 31, the start of the 2019 Labour Day long weekend.

The 84,000-sq-ft retail space addition, built over several acres, is a seamless eastward expansion of the shopping centre.

These are the new retailers that have been confirmed at this time for opening:
  • Adidas
  • Jimmy Choo
  • Stuart Weitzman
  • All Saints
  • Movado
  • North Face
  • Jack & Jones
  • Starbucks
[...]

The existing 240,000-sq-ft shopping centre has approximately 70 stores, and a future third phase expansion on the northeast corner of the site will add roughly an additional 100,000 sq. ft. of retail space. No timeline has been established for this third phase expansion.

[...]
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/mcar...n-opening-2019

I didn't appreciate that there was still so much additional expansion capacity on the property. At full build-out we would be talking about talking roughly 420,000 sqft, if I'm not mistaken.

The Google Maps satellite/3D imagery is surprisingly out of date, but here's a link: https://goo.gl/maps/EKKLe16xhZQDkdgJ9

I'm very familiar with YEG Edmonton International Airport and its extraordinarily ambitious non-aeronautical revenue strategy, and I would be interested to hear what other airports are doing to diversify revenue, leverage air route connectivity, and create new local jobs and opportunities.

Cage Aug 2, 2019 9:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by westendtoronto (Post 8646867)
Hey everyone! I wanted to make my first post on this thread as it has some really interesting discussions. :cheers:

I noticed back in the older masterplan for Pearson that their capacity is 50 million passengers a year. 2019 looks like they are about to hit (and pass) that plateau. What's next for them when it comes to capacity? YVR and YUL both seem to be making upgrades at the moment, but YYZ is currently status quo with major construction of any new gates or piers, even though they are doing small upgrades here and there? :shrug:

Welcome to the thread.

Aircraft seat densification has thrown out the pre2015 master plans because more passengers can be handled with the same number of flights.

The next few years will see regional aircraft upguaged fairly significantly. 37 seat aircraft will be gone in next 6-12 months, followed by a move up fro 50 seat to 75 seat aircraft.

Mainline narrowbody is also going with larger aircraft. Max8 is 26 seats more that comparable 320/73G. A220 is larger than E90.

The effects of the TS takeover by AC will be telling. If the Transport Minister approves the takeover with minimal impact to TS YYZ ops, expect AC and WS to green light Pier H fairly quickly. If the Transport Minister approves extensive gate and route reductions for YYZ, AC will likely stick it to WS and keep TS separate operations in T3.

Before anyone gets after the distinction between Competition Commissioner and Transport Minister, remember the Transport Canada Modernization Act includes and adjustment wherein the Competition Tribunal write a confidential report to the Transport Minister, who then issues a ruling on their advice. I expect a Quebec MP will approve the AC/TS Merger that is supported by Quebec politicos.

I expect WS to make a big public push for AC to give up lots of YYZ slots and gates at T3 in order to secure the takeover of TS. WS will soak up all the gate space it can in T3 as TS gets reorganized.

We could also see AC willingly going back to the infield in order to get more gate space out of T1 until pier H is constructed.

Djeffery Aug 2, 2019 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver (Post 8647177)

The Google Maps satellite/3D imagery is surprisingly out of date, but here's a link: https://goo.gl/maps/EKKLe16xhZQDkdgJ9

Desktop Google Earth has a July 2018 image. Google Earth on my phone has the same image you linked to.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...a59f31c1fe.jpg

thenoflyzone Aug 3, 2019 1:44 AM

2019 First half passenger stats (unless otherwise noted):

YYZ - 20,012,696 +3.4% (til May 2019)
YVR - 12,682,497 +2,4%
YUL - 9,684,355 +5,7%
YYC - 8,590,407 +4,5%
YEG - 4,019,375 +1.4%
YOW - 2,568,201 +2,7%
YWG - 2,227,005 +4,7%

YUL leading the pack in terms of growth percentage. YYZ is pretty impressive, considering what the 3.4% represents in actual passenger numbers. YEG & YVR are pretty disappointing so far.

YYC and YWG are doing pretty good, and so is Ottawa, considering the lackluster growth of the last 5 years.

FrAnKs Aug 3, 2019 2:33 AM

Do you have YQB please?

By the way, why are they all starting with the letter Y?

magee_b Aug 3, 2019 6:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FrAnKs (Post 8648531)
Do you have YQB please?

By the way, why are they all starting with the letter Y?

There's a detailed wikipedia entry about some of the history of Canadian IATA codes (not to be confused with the 4-letter ICAO codes, which is a different story):

Quote:

When the Canadian transcontinental railways were built, each station was assigned its own two-letter Morse code. VR stands for Vancouver, TZ Toronto, QB Quebec, WG Winnipeg, SJ Saint John, YC Calgary, OW Ottawa, EG Edmonton, etc. When the Canadian government established airports, it used the existing railway codes for them as well. If the airport had a weather station, authorities added a "Y" to the front of the code, meaning "Yes" to indicate it had a weather station or some other letter to indicate it did not. When international codes were created in cooperation with the United States, because "Y" was seldom used in the US, Canada simply used the weather station codes for its airports, changing the "Y" to a "Z" if it conflicted with an airport code already in use. The result is that most major Canadian airport codes start with "Y" followed by two letters in the city's name: YOW for Ottawa, YWG for Winnipeg, YYC for Calgary, and YVR for Vancouver, whereas other Canadian airports append the two-letter code of the radio beacons that were the closest to the actual airport, such as YQX in Gander and YXS in Prince George.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IATA_airport_code

thenoflyzone Aug 5, 2019 2:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FrAnKs (Post 8648531)
Do you have YQB please?

The reason I didn't include YHZ, YYT, YQB etc. is because they don't publish the data I require.

YQB publishes monthly growth rates, but not monthly passenger numbers. So pretty useless in and of itself.

https://www.aeroportdequebec.com/en/...layout-content

Still better than YHZ, YYT or YTZ, which don't publish much to begin with. As for the rest, I simply don't bother, as they aren't busy airports.

The top 7 airports in the country that I listed account for 99% + of all of Canada's passenger movements in a year. (you can check the math, and that's the actual number !)

The other airports are just filler. Sucks, but that's reality. An airport like YFC or YQM can post a 1000% passenger increase. Doesn't mean much, in the grand scheme of things, especially if they don't publish the info that I need to post it in the first place.

J81 Aug 6, 2019 2:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 8649501)
The reason I didn't include YHZ, YYT, YQB etc. is because they don't publish the data I require.

YQB publishes monthly growth rates, but not monthly passenger numbers. So pretty useless in and of itself.

https://www.aeroportdequebec.com/en/...layout-content

Still better than YHZ, YYT or YTZ, which don't publish much to begin with. As for the rest, I simply don't bother, as they aren't busy airports.

The top 7 airports in the country that I listed account for 99% + of all of Canada's passenger movements in a year. (you can check the math, and that's the actual number !)

The other airports are just filler. Sucks, but that's reality. An airport like YFC or YQM can post a 1000% passenger increase. Doesn't mean much, in the grand scheme of things, especially if they don't publish the info that I need to post it in the first place.

If YQM posted an increase of 1000% they’d be at 7 million plus per year which would put it above all but a handful of airports. But thats Absurd of course and I understand your point.

I will say however that all those “filler” airports across the country have a substantial impact on the large airports numbers. Most of those passengers are connecting through the hubs. YQM for example, id guess 90% of the passengers travel through YUL or YYZ.

thenoflyzone Aug 6, 2019 9:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J81 (Post 8650362)

I will say however that all those “filler” airports across the country have a substantial impact on the large airports numbers. Most of those passengers are connecting through the hubs. YQM for example, id guess 90% of the passengers travel through YUL or YYZ.

I get your point, but it’s not really “substantial”, considering YYZ, YVR and YUL have an O&D of around 70-80%.

YYC’s isn’t that high though.

thenoflyzone Aug 6, 2019 9:01 PM

Delete. Duplicate.

hollywoodcory Aug 7, 2019 3:47 PM

AC appears to be delaying seasonal starts for YYC-OGG/PVR until December. I imagine SJD will possibly follow suit as well. All MAX8 related I would assume.

Curious what happens to YYC-OGG if the MAX8 grounding continues. Maybe it gets swapped to Rouge? I can't see them dropping the route entirely.

Truenorth00 Aug 7, 2019 11:37 PM

The consultant report on the Pickering Airport is for this year.

Any guesses on recommendations? Or other thoughts?

rbt Aug 7, 2019 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truenorth00 (Post 8652302)
The consultant report on the Pickering Airport is for this year.

Any guesses on recommendations? Or other thoughts?

General Aviation at the most in the next 15 years, to cleanup the airspace (close Buttonville, Oshawa, etc.).

If you assume GO RER will be completed in the next decade, then both Waterloo and Hamilton are within 60 minutes of downtown and far cheaper to expand to serve the level of added capacity Pickering might handle.

thenoflyzone Aug 8, 2019 3:55 AM

YUL corporate video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrYJhSfr6T8


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