Maybe - would be a good fit. However there is no way TRZ would get the premium offer WJA received.

ORD finally posted December 2018 numbers. The list is complete.

2018 International passenger numbers

1. JFK 33.8 million (+3.7%)
2. YYZ 31.6 million (+6.7%)
3. LAX 26.05 million (+4.4%)
4. MIA 21.86 million (+1.9%)
5. CUN 16.4 million
6. PTY 16.2 million
7. MEX 15.75 million
8. SFO 14.22 million (+5.9%)
9. EWR 14.1 million (+9.7%)
10. ORD 13.95 million (+11.9%)
11. YVR 13.49 million (+8.5%)
12. ATL 12.5 million (+3.6%)
13. YUL 12.27 million (+9.2%)
14. IAH 10.73 million (+3.7%)
15. DFW 8.74 million (+2.7%)
16. FLL 8.61 million (+19.8%)
17. BOS 7.58 million (+5.3%)

Air Canada is buying Transat it seems.

Seems AC got a good deal. $520 million is a steal for TS and its parent company. Their assets are worth $1.5B.

Glad to see the company will stay in Quebec and that the jobs at TS seem secure (for now). For the consumer however, that is one less competition on the transatlantic/Caribbean front. So prices will creep up.

After the merger, YUL will become a fortress hub, even if the TS brand stays separate.

https://aircanada.mediaroom.com/2019...-two-Companies

Could AC and TS codeshare?

So does AC Rouge get rolled into Transat (or vice versa)?

I hope Montrealers like high airfares. The fortress hub will more likely be called a monopoly hub. I don't think any airport in Canada is slot constrained except maybe YYZ so i don't know what measures the competition bureau can take to avoid the monopoly in that region. Saying that, this is Quebec so it will probably be rubber stamped.

It's still a premium to the enterprise value. There is nearly 1 Billion in liabilities, plus other downsides such as poor financial performance lately.

Needs to be rejected. Will lead to too much of a monopoly.

I think that would be true if AC was trying to buy Porter. Transat is a leisure/charter airline.

I expect the airline component will be rolled into Rouge. The A310s will be out of the fleet as soon as replacement A321s can be found. Also gone will be the 737NGs. Between the 310s and 737NGs, one or both could face the same fate as the CP DC10s, which were mothballed by old company before the merger transaction was complete.

However I suspect the tour operator component of TransAt AT will remain separate. AC Vacations might even get rolled into the TransAt Holidays as the selling arm of the combined unit.

The odd piece out are the Hotels. AC doesnt have a track record of running hotels and neither does any airline group. I expect this component will be sold off with 18 months.

AC will need to pay 40M$ if it goesn't go through approbations.

The long term play here is to create a third viable domestic airline, most likely at the ULCC level. I'm thinking a Flair type of airline, although Sunwing could also fit the mission.

In 3-5 years Canada could have 2 Global Network Airlines that are both viable (something that hasn't existed since the mid 80s). In addition there will be capacity for 1-2 ULCC type operations.

What happens immediately following consolidation of the domestic airline business is a number of new entrants becoming immediately viable. Nature abhors a vacuum.

In the mid to late 80s after CP/Nordair/EPA/CalmAir/PWA/Wardair merged in to Canadian, a number of airlines started up. Namely Air Transat (1987), Canada 3000 (1988), Nationair, and a few one hit wonders.

In the early 2000s after the AC/CP merger there was WestJet (major expansion), Royal Aviation/Jetsgo (I'm combining two Michel LeBlanc ventures), CanJet, Sunwing, SkyService, etc.

I am confident that history will repeat itself.

Quebec wants a sale to another Quebec-based company, AC fits that (if only nominally). Case closed, this will be approved.

Yup - it played a big role - Quebec's premier is one of the founders of Transat, too. You can bet that ONEX was trying to talk to Transat about a buyout as well.

Curious what portion of Air Transat's routes duplicate Air Canada ones?

Transat is usually cheaper than Air Canada. After a merger, it would be in Air Canada's interest to eliminate the price gap as consumers wouldn't have an alternative. And it would be Transat prices increasing not Air Canada seats decreasing down to what Transat charges.

There is a lot of overlap in routes for sure, both summer routes to Europe and to sun spots in winter, there will have to be some merging. I do wonder if they will ditch rouge and just keep TS for leisure. It will help AC a lot in freeing up routes for mainline though, right now there's still leisure routes that are operated by AC that TS would be good for

I hope they keep the term "Holidays" instead of "Vacations". The less American influences we have in Canada, the better.

The A310s are alreadly on their way out. The 737NG's were planned to leave the fleet as well, once more A321s are delivered.

Transat press release from last year confirming that the airline was going All Airbus by 2024. (A330s/A321s)

https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...686665781.html

AC's acquisition will simply accelerate that plan.

You wont find many free slots at YVR or YUL during peak times either.

YYZ and YVR are both level 3 slot coordinated airports (IATA). YUL and YYC are level 2.

IATA definitions

Level 2: airports where there is potential for congestion during some periods
of the day, week, or season which can be resolved by schedule adjustments
mutually agreed between the airlines and facilitator. A facilitator is appointed
to facilitate the planned operations of airlines using or planning to use the
airport.

Level 3: airports where capacity providers have not developed sufficient
infrastructure, or where governments have imposed conditions that make it
impossible to meet demand. A coordinator is appointed to allocate slots to
airlines and other aircraft operators using or planning to use the airport as a
means of managing the declared capacity.