What do you expect as for new routes?

Current diff of AC's summer schedule for the week of Jul 18-24, 2018 and 2019. :D

(Even-numbered routes, AC 2-1298; 1600-1998; 7200-8998)

My guess for summer 2019 AC.

1. AC generally holds off announcing new international widebody routes Canada to Asia and Western Canada to Europe until WS finalizes their Dreamliner fleet plan. We should prepare ourselves for delayed AC announcements.

2. If WS announces an asian Dreamliner route, AC would give away YYC-NRT to WS but AC will make life difficult for WS out of YVR. The Chinese 5 will also make life difficult for WS out of YVR. All these points considered, WS might try an launch an Asian route out of YYC.

3. On the assumption that AC and CA can be true JV friends, CA might be willing to give up a commercially viable slot pair at PEK for AC to launch a 788 service YYC-PEK. Under this scenario YYC-NRT gets cut.

4. On the assumption that WS puts their Dreamliners on the existing runs to LGW and mothballs the 767s for the Summer 2019 schedule; I suspect AC will keep YYC-NRT and do some minimal expansion.

For the Maritimes…I could see the following MAX routes:

YHZ-FRA: For several months last winter the enRoute map was actually showing this as a non-stop route so I thought it might have launched this year. Condor currently operates this and there's probably enough traffic for a little competition.

YQM-CDG: There’s a significant Acadian population in the Moncton area and north along the coast and into the Gaspe. Paris was previously served from YQM on a Corsair ‘747….

http://www.gnb.ca/cnb/news/tp/2005e0815tp.htm

….and also by Canada 3000.

I just don't see either WS or AC launching any route to China, or any surrounding countries except Japan.

First of all, there's no slot. AC have to trade a LHR slot with CZ in order to get the PVG slot to launch YUL-PVG. How would WS get any slot if they have nothing to trade with?

Second of all, the air fare to China (and many surrounding countries) are way too low to be profitable, especially for airline with small long-hual operation like WS. I read a report a while ago, stating that the Chinese airlines are now running North American routes at a loss. Would AC or WS want to put their new planes to compete on those routes?

This can be seen from AC... over the years they were looking at starting these Chinese routes, but ended up running none of them. Most likely because a Chinese airliner had started it before them, "friend" or competitor, and they see no point of competing...

YVR-CAN
YYC-PEK
YYZ-CAN
YUL-PEK

^
This is why I don't see WS starting East Asia either. Long flights, lots of competition, lack of slots at the key airports and low fares. Not a recipe for success. The bulk of their dreamliners are headed to Europe, no matter what their dreamliner route map says. I can see YVR-SYD being launched before anything gets launched to Asia.

Honestly, i have no idea. Like i said, not a lot of long haul routes will be launched. Maybe 1 or 2, if that.

Slight edge to YYZ/YUL, as the Rouge 767s from the west coast will almost all be based in the east, and more routes are therefore possible out of those two hubs.

The A333s are essentially replacing the mainline B767s, so I dont think they will be used to launch new routes per se. Some European 788 routes out of YUL/YYZ will most likely get converted to A333, thus freeing up the B788s to operate YOW-LHR/FRA and YYC-NRT. Pure speculation on my part on that one though. Don't know if YUL-PVG/NRT can still hold on to the B788s to make that happen. Maybe an upgauge to B789 for both routes is being considered.

As for new routes, here is a list of routes that might make sense. Pure speculation though.

YYZ-Lagos/Accra
YUL-Dakar/Berlin/Milan/Toulouse/Prague/Cairo

I think YYZ-JNB and YVR-SIN make sense as well, but those two routes require 2 frames to operate. With only 1 more widebody in 2019 vs 2018, can't see those two being launched just yet.

Also, could very well be that they dont launch anything and simply increase frequency on existing routes. Ex. YUL-TLV, YUL/YYZ-OTP, YVR-ZRH/CDG...etc.

I believe that Air Canada has said recently that their 'growth' phase is over for the time being.

In the past 12 years, they've purchased a new fleet of 777s and 787s for long-haul and are currently replacing the bulk of their narrowbody fleet with the 737MAX and CS3....er....A220-300 in the next 5 years. I imagine they'll want to conserve capital to improve their balance sheet and may be preparing for the next recession.

From an operational point-of-view, I don't see much change either - they've put most of their low-yield routes on Rouge. The next 'big spend' will likely be replacement of the 767s of Rouge and perhaps replacement of the remaining A321 at mainline.

I also don't see a lot of gaps in their route network. Europe seems pretty saturated. Maybe Istanbul comes back from YYZ, now that things have settled down there? Other guesses right be Rio de Janeiro from YYZ as well, with Brazil's economy improving. An odd one might be a seasonal YVR-AKL, perhaps 3X weekly. Other than those and the few mentioned by posters above, I've no idea.

Or they could be replaced by the Rouge 767 coming from the West :D

Well, actually, they could also use 7M8 to run YYZ-DUB and those YYZ-secondary UK routes with higher frequency, that would free up a couple more wide bodies for new long-hual routes.

The YVR-DUB route also need some replacement though... NGO may be gone but I don't think they'll get rid of DUB too as that route is clearly growing... so maybe that's another 788 needed too.

New Primera flights YUL-CDG ?WINTER? seasonal?? Am I reading this right? Also Extending YYZ-STN to December and YYZ-CDG to winter season.

https://canadianaviationnews.wordpre...ed-ex-yyz-yul/

Yep. With the way LEVEL’s doing at YUL, they might replace them.

I can't see YYZ-DUB going down to a max, it is already a daily A333, it would need to be flown 3x daily to realize an increase in capacity, which is not practical.

I would love to see more routes to Germany given how high load factors are already, HAM is a big one, with O/D demand large enough alone to support a 3x weekly service already. DUS is another that has been previously served from YYZ, and was announced by Air Berlin before their demise. Maybe something else in Scandinavia would be nice, ARN or a return of HEL to Toronto.

Pure speculation: I could see AC using the 737Max for a YYZ-BHX flight, or if there's airframe availability, using a Rouge 767.

Through colleagues whose partners fly for AC, I've heard talk that YYZ-JNB is seriously being considered as a new route, as is YYZ-LOS.

If that happens, there will be 6 different carriers operating from Montreal to Paris.

Level seems to be back on track. They missed a few flights some weeks ago, stranding 800 passengers in Montreal. That's what happens when you start operations with 1 A330 available. If something goes wrong, there is no wiggle room. Don't know what the issue was exactly.

The sole A332 they have (F-HLVL) rotates between PTP and YUL at the moment.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/f-hlvl

Most AC B788 and B789 routes from Canada to Europe aren't Rouge material. Routes like YUL-FRA, YYZ-MUC, YYZ-MXP or YYZ-AMS can't be Rouged. They can, however, be replaced easily with the A333s.

The A333 has lower CASM on shorter legs (such as YYZ/YUL-Europe) compared to the dreamliner, when you factor in acquisition costs as well. So it makes total sense to replace some routes to Europe with the A333.

By your comments about the 767's i'm surprised YYZ-WAW is still showing for summer 2019. On top of that do you have any insight for that route as to how well it has done so far in 2018? I was surprised it was unRouged in the first place.

I have a vested interest in that route as i booked an Aeroplan Business reward flight (5 tickets) on the WAW-YYZ portion. The "additional" AC fees on the route were quite reasonable relative to anything else to Europe. I tried to fly via your neck of the woods at YUL but i didn't feel like having a 9 hour connection. Well i probably wouldn't have minded but the rest of my family would lol.

A lot can change with the summer 2019 schedules. This early, airlines typically carbon copy summer 2018 schedules onto 2019. The tweaking starts later in the year and early 2019.

You only need 13 weekly MAX8 on YYZ-DUB to start getting an increase on seat capacity over a daily A333. That is not double daily every day, and far from triple daily. And at 12 weekly, you only lose 16 seats each way per week. Not even 3 seats per day. Very negligible.

I can never really figure out the transatlantic flights with the Max8. First, there are no lie flat seats so does business class cost less on these flights then if you had a 330 on the route? Second, the flight for example leaves YUL late and arrives at DUB early. Wouldn't it be advantageous to depart YUL at 9am and get in at DUB at 8pm. Leave DUB at 10pm and get in at YUL at 11:40pm? Obviously i'm wrong since none of the flights are configured in this way but i am curious as to why.

Connections at YUL. Both ways. That's why. What your propose makes sense if the flight is 100% full of O&D pax. That's not the case.

Very few early morning departures to Europe from NA. YYZ-LHR and JFK-LHR have them. High paying O&D passengers make those daytime trips profitable.

AC has never had any interest in expanding service from YQM. AC wants everyone in Moncton to go through YUL, YYZ or YHZ to get anywhere. There are zero business class seats out of YQM and hasnt been since CRJ9s plied YYZ-YQM. There arent even any winter sun destinations on AC. Would be nice though as well as a flight to Paris that we had in the early to mid 2000s