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TheGreatestX Oct 14, 2018 1:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cage (Post 8343914)
You guys are onto the slack schedule (as currently presented/loaded) for both the 763 and n789 fleet at WS. Both fleet types could handle an additional round trip 3 or 4 times per week. For the 763, the additional flying could be done with the additional slack because the airplanes are hangar queens.

Westjet doesn't crystallize their summer schedule until December or January. Further, if they toasted those YEG-LGW and YWG-LGW frequencies as part of the Dreamliner route announcement, it would have nationally tainted the presser.

My guesstimate on the 763: the 763s will fly YYZ-LGW and YVR-LGW daily. Additional European routes will be announced at later date, these will be multiple destinations served a few times per week each. YEG and YWG will lose their token summer seasonal flights. In both cases the losses will be attributed to guests choosing the 789 through YYC over the nonstop on the 763.

My guesstimate on the 789: There is a potential for 2-3/wk YYZ-LGW run if the introduction goes well. The aircraft routing would be YYC-LGW-YYZ-LGW-YYC. WS does this aircraft routing currently. The less than daily aspect is required as the 789 fleet couldn't do 3 dailies all the time.

If the 789 delivery gets delayed or if the indoctrination goes badly, the spare 789 could be used for recovery operations and as the maintenance spare.

But why cancel YEG/YWG-LGW? They could just use the spare frame to increase YEG-LGW to 4x and YWG-LGW to 3x?

Pinus Oct 14, 2018 3:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cage (Post 8343914)
You guys are onto the slack schedule (as currently presented/loaded) for both the 763 and n789 fleet at WS. Both fleet types could handle an additional round trip 3 or 4 times per week. For the 763, the additional flying could be done with the additional slack because the airplanes are hangar queens.

Westjet doesn't crystallize their summer schedule until December or January. Further, if they toasted those YEG-LGW and YWG-LGW frequencies as part of the Dreamliner route announcement, it would have nationally tainted the presser.

My guesstimate on the 763: the 763s will fly YYZ-LGW and YVR-LGW daily. Additional European routes will be announced at later date, these will be multiple destinations served a few times per week each. YEG and YWG will lose their token summer seasonal flights. In both cases the losses will be attributed to guests choosing the 789 through YYC over the nonstop on the 763.

My guesstimate on the 789: There is a potential for 2-3/wk YYZ-LGW run if the introduction goes well. The aircraft routing would be YYC-LGW-YYZ-LGW-YYC. WS does this aircraft routing currently. The less than daily aspect is required as the 789 fleet couldn't do 3 dailies all the time.

If the 789 delivery gets delayed or if the indoctrination goes badly, the spare 789 could be used for recovery operations and as the maintenance spare.

Why would Winnipeggers want to backtrack all the way back to Calgay as opposed to flying non-stop to London?

PS sorry about the frowny face. That was an accident.

CloudInspector Oct 14, 2018 4:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinus (Post 8345487)
Why would Winnipeggers want to backtrack all the way back to Calgay as opposed to flying non-stop to London?

PS sorry about the frowny face. That was an accident.

If they’re going to connect anywhere, YYZ makes the most sense. I’m surprised WS didn’t put the 787 on YYZ-LGW just yet but I imagine that will come in time.

Are the 767s getting full J class as well?

Pinus Oct 14, 2018 4:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CloudInspector (Post 8345496)
If they’re going to connect anywhere, YYZ makes the most sense. I’m surprised WS didn’t put the 787 on YYZ-LGW just yet but I imagine that will come in time.

Are the 767s getting full J class as well?

Why should we have to connect anywhere, at all?

DDP Oct 14, 2018 5:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinus (Post 8345501)
Why should we have to connect anywhere, at all?

Because Winnipeg is a relatively small city, small business demand, and few international tourists and.

The growth in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver are happening since there is a large connecting passenger growth. Without that lots of the new flights out of those cities wouldn't exist.

ghYHZ Oct 14, 2018 8:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DDP (Post 8345680)
Because Winnipeg is a relatively small city, small business demand, and few international tourists and...….

Metro Winnipeg has a pop of 780,000.....nearly double that of Halifax but still we (YHZ) have AC to Heathrow year 'round and in summer: Westjet to Paris, Glasgow and Gatwick, Condor to Germany and Icelandair to Reykjavik.

(With the way Icelandair has been expanding in North America....you'd think Winnipeg could at least gain a flight to KEF with the strong ties Winnipeg/Gimli have to Iceland)

J81 Oct 14, 2018 8:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghYHZ (Post 8345792)
Metro Winnipeg has a pop of 780,000.....nearly double that of Halifax but still we (YHZ) have AC to Heathrow year 'round and in summer: Westjet to Paris, Glasgow and Gatwick, Condor to Germany and Icelandair to Reykjavik.

(With the way Icelandair has been expanding in North America....you'd think Winnipeg could at least gain a flight to KEF with the strong ties Winnipeg/Gimli have to Iceland)

YHZ draws pax from all over the maritimes.

ghYHZ Oct 14, 2018 8:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J81 (Post 8345797)
YHZ draws pax from all over the maritimes.

So in that context....wouldn't Winnipeg draw from all of Manitoba and anyone from Saskatchewan heading east to Europe so they're not going west first to YYC or YEG?

q12 Oct 14, 2018 9:44 PM

Halifax Stanfield is the 5th most internationally connected airport in Canada (non-stop flights outside North America) behind the big four (Toronto Pearson, Montreal Trudeau, Vancouver and Calgary).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfBZ8fNU0AE8Nux.jpg:large
https://twitter.com/HfxPartnership/s...03136038137857

When you look at the 12 largest metros in Canada and realize how many are within driving range of a better connected airport it helps to understand why Halifax does so well internationally (relative to it's size).
  1. Toronto 6,346,088
  2. Montréal 4,138,254
  3. Vancouver 2,571,262
  4. Calgary 1,488,841
  5. Edmonton 1,411,945 *(Within reasonable driving range to Calgary)
  6. Ottawa 1,377,016 *(Within reasonable driving range to Montreal Trudeau)
  7. Winnipeg 825,713
  8. Québec 812,205 *(Within reasonable driving range to Montreal Trudeau)
  9. Hamilton 787,195 *(Within reasonable driving range to Toronto Pearson)
  10. Kitchener 527,765 *(Within reasonable driving range to Toronto Pearson)
  11. London 521,756 *(Within reasonable driving range to Toronto Pearson)
  12. Halifax 431,701

Denscity Oct 15, 2018 1:23 AM

What is everyone's yearly passenger count compared to population?
Ours is 10x our population so I figure this is pretty good?

thenoflyzone Oct 15, 2018 12:17 PM

You guys are missing the point.

YHZ has non stops to Europe for 3 reasons.

1. Connecting anywhere else in North America is a significant backtrack.
2. Most YHZ-Europe flights can be operated by a narrowbody. This is the main reason for the new non stops to Europe in the last 5 years.
3. Demand exists on the European side to visit the Maritimes.

YWG doesn't meet any of these criterias, hence the lack of non stops to Europe. It has nothing to do with population.

Name me a European that has Winnipeg on his bucket list. Go to the Maritimes in summer and you'll see plenty of Europeans.

All that being said, I can see FI start YWG at some point.

esquire Oct 15, 2018 1:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghYHZ (Post 8345805)
So in that context....wouldn't Winnipeg draw from all of Manitoba and anyone from Saskatchewan heading east to Europe so they're not going west first to YYC or YEG?

I'd wager that most people from Man/Sask heading to Europe are going via YYZ. Maybe some through YYC (especially with WS' new service). I can't imagine that there would be more than a tiny number of people going through YEG given the minimal service levels through there.

YQR/YXE are well connected to YYZ which has more overseas service than YWG could ever hope to have.

ghYHZ Oct 15, 2018 1:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by esquire (Post 8346179)
I'd wager that most people from Man/Sask heading to Europe are going via YYZ. Maybe some through YYC (especially with WS' new service). I can't imagine that there would be more than a tiny number of people going through YEG given the minimal service levels through there.

YQR/YXE are well connected to YYZ which has more overseas service than YWG could ever hope to have.

Again my point.....why is everyone in Manitoba or Sask going to YYZ first to connect to Europe? Sure there's a multitude of destinations but is there not sufficient numbers to at least support a summer service from Winnipeg to the UK?

esquire Oct 15, 2018 1:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghYHZ (Post 8346197)
Again my point.....why is everyone in Manitoba or Sask going to YYZ first to connect to Europe? Sure there's a multitude of destinations but is there not sufficient numbers to at least support a summer service from Winnipeg to the UK?

There is a lot of traffic to YYZ already, so there's lots of capacity to YYZ from YWG/YQR/YXE. That's a difficult hurdle to overcome... clearly AC would rather send people to its hub. Even if there was a daily YWG-LHR, most people from Man/Sask would probably still be going through YYZ or YYC anyway.

I suspect that it isn't a huge deal for most travellers... the pool of people regularly going back and forth multiple times a year between YQR/YXE/YWG to LHR whose lives would be most affected by a YWG-LHR route is probably tiny.

I don't know what more to tell you other than that if the demand existed, the routes would exist... simple as that.

thenoflyzone Oct 15, 2018 1:47 PM

Speaking of FI, they will be sending the Max 9 to YUL and YYZ next year.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38...twork-in-2019/

Quote:

Icelandair last week filed planned Boeing 737 MAX 9 service, set to enter service on 20FEB19 to London Gatwick, followed by Washington Dulles. Based on listing, configuration of the 737 MAX 9 is C16Y144.

Reykjavik Keflavik – Montreal eff 25MAY19 3 weekly (5 weekly from 05JUN19, until 30SEP19)

Reykjavik Keflavik – Toronto eff 02OCT19 7 weekly

Cage Oct 15, 2018 4:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghYHZ (Post 8346197)
Again my point.....why is everyone in Manitoba or Sask going to YYZ first to connect to Europe? Sure there's a multitude of destinations but is there not sufficient numbers to at least support a summer service from Winnipeg to the UK?

The problem with YWG-Europe is not numbers but dollars.

When a wide body is required by the route, the economics for scheduled pax service require that 1/3 revenue comes from front premium cabin (First/Business), 1/3 revenue comes from the the middle premium cabin (Premium Economy), 1/3 from the back end discounted economy cabin.

From a pax numbers perspective widebodies like the 789 and 333 have 10% of pax seats in the front premium cabin, 7% of pax seats in the middle premium cabin, and 83% of pax seats in the back end discounted economy cabin.

As Thenoflyzone has correctly pointed out above, the primary reason for YHZ-Europe n/s is that it can be done on a narrow body aircraft. Narrow bodies have different economic factors to make a route successful.

240glt Oct 15, 2018 7:40 PM

Decided to fly through Toronto on my way to & from Atlanta instead of my usual connection airport of MSP, Haven't done that for a while and I remember why I don't. Security and customs at Pearson are a mess. I can't believe how poorly thought out the place is. I'll always pre-clear at EIA and head straight to the states from now on.

Of course my Nexus card showed up while I was gone. That would've made things a lot quicker anyways.

Airboy Oct 15, 2018 8:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 240glt (Post 8346593)
Decided to fly through Toronto on my way to & from Atlanta instead of my usual connection airport of MSP, Haven't done that for a while and I remember why I don't. Security and customs at Pearson are a mess. I can't believe how poorly thought out the place is. I'll always pre-clear at EIA and head straight to the states from now on.

Of course my Nexus card showed up while I was gone. That would've made things a lot quicker anyways.

When I used to travel to Washington regularly I always used MSP. Toronto was tough even then. Between the boarder agents and the time of the connections it was easier. Preclear in YEG the staff all knew me which made it easier. Plus connections had me at Reagan early afternoon. If I did TO I would not get in until after 6.

When my wife and I last did transboarder to Indianapolis, we went through TO. Good thing she was in a wheelchair that day or I swear we would still be waiting. 1PM on a weekday and there were only 4 boarder agents. over 200 people lined up. as it was for wheelchair passengers the line still took an hour. Plus going from domestic up and around and through and up and over,......... I am glad I hopped on the cart.

Pinus Oct 15, 2018 8:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by esquire (Post 8346204)
There is a lot of traffic to YYZ already, so there's lots of capacity to YYZ from YWG/YQR/YXE. That's a difficult hurdle to overcome... clearly AC would rather send people to its hub. Even if there was a daily YWG-LHR, most people from Man/Sask would probably still be going through YYZ or YYC anyway.

I suspect that it isn't a huge deal for most travellers... the pool of people regularly going back and forth multiple times a year between YQR/YXE/YWG to LHR whose lives would be most affected by a YWG-LHR route is probably tiny.

I don't know what more to tell you other than that if the demand existed, the routes would exist... simple as that.

The demand is there for Winnipeg-London, but due to the hub-and-spoke model being forced upon us, any potential growth we would have is stifled, especially by YYC.

optimusREIM Oct 15, 2018 9:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinus (Post 8346667)
The demand is there for Winnipeg-London, but due to the hub-and-spoke model being forced upon us, any potential growth we would have is stifled, especially by YYC.

I could see a flight to mainland Europe working pretty well for the summer tourist season


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