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jmt18325 Sep 3, 2016 5:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alexcaban (Post 7550715)
I can almost guarantee you that YUL-BEY will be a mainline route flown by a 788. There is no way a fully loaded rouge 767 could make it. Especially if you let everyone bring 2 bags not to mention this 767 seats about 60 more people then the main line 767s. I'm sure the extra rouge 767 will be reserved for either YUL-ALG or MRS.

It's 300NM more than YYZ-ATH (not sure if there's a longer current Rouge route). According to the Air Canada website range numbers for the 767, it can do it.

Johnny Aussie Sep 3, 2016 6:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 7550687)
the 5x weekly is only a rumor for next summer.

They are confirmed going to 4x weekly as of Oct 30th.

The China-Canada bilateral is completely maxed out. The cap was not raised so the status quo will remain for at least two years +. This means the only unused frequencies are being held by Hainan (2 per week). All other carriers have fully utilised their allocations. What this means is any new route or additional frequencies on existing routes will have to come at the expense of existing routes. This is happening now on China Eastern shuffling some of its weekly flights around to Kunming via Nanjing to YVR instead of via PVG. And CA actually had its allocations reduced to only 15pw starting in October. The allocation is 11 on PEK-YVR and 4 on PEK-YUL. In YVR's case that is a huge reduction from 17 per week just on PEK-YVR. They were flying double daily in July and August plus an additional 3 weekly in August. The only other way for Chinese carriers to increase capacity is of course to start adding larger aircraft to existing routes which is already happening on some YVR routes anyway. Both MU and CA are expected to increase the gauge on the PVG and PEK to YVR routes. But unfortunately what we have is all we are getting for a few years. And also unfortunately the cap includes cargo routes as well.

SFUVancouver Sep 3, 2016 7:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 7548575)
Quote:

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver (Post 7548273)
So, what does this tell us? It tells us that year over year the number of aircraft is flat (actually a touch positive) but the number of passengers went up substantially and the aircraft tonnage went up, too, but not in lock step with passenger numbers. Therefore, the increase in passengers came through higher load factors on existing aircraft (more people in the same type of aircraft) and the up-gauging to larger, higher capacity, heavier aircraft. Since there are some entirely new routes and new carriers, this further tells us that there has been some rationalization (cuts) by carriers of the number of flights and/or routes they offer, but they are also using larger aircraft.

I think that this is a neat trend to observe and it helps explain how YVR is able to keep up with such sustained growth without a commensurate increase in the number of gates or enduring uncharacteristic congestion for departure runway slots.



This is a trend seen throughout Canada, not just YVR.

I realize this; it's a global trend (see unprecedented sales of A321 as the most salient example). My comments and analysis were in reference to YVR's July '16 numbers and weren't intended to infer that the higher load factors and tonnes on runway was a situation unique to YVR.

thenoflyzone Sep 3, 2016 8:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie (Post 7550766)
The China-Canada bilateral is completely maxed out. The cap was not raised so the status quo will remain for at least two years +. This means the only unused frequencies are being held by Hainan (2 per week). All other carriers have fully utilised their allocations. What this means is any new route or additional frequencies on existing routes will have to come at the expense of existing routes. This is happening now on China Eastern shuffling some of its weekly flights around to Kunming via Nanjing to YVR instead of via PVG. And CA actually had its allocations reduced to only 15pw starting in October. The allocation is 11 on PEK-YVR and 4 on PEK-YUL. In YVR's case that is a huge reduction from 17 per week just on PEK-YVR. They were flying double daily in July and August plus an additional 3 weekly in August. The only other way for Chinese carriers to increase capacity is of course to start adding larger aircraft to existing routes which is already happening on some YVR routes anyway. Both MU and CA are expected to increase the gauge on the PVG and PEK to YVR routes. But unfortunately what we have is all we are getting for a few years. And also unfortunately the cap includes cargo routes as well.

Interesting. Maybe AC might launch 2x or 3x weekly YUL-PEK after all.

Canadian carriers have plenty of unused frequency left, so the AC-CA JV might come in handy here....

casper Sep 3, 2016 8:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie (Post 7550766)
The China-Canada bilateral is completely maxed out. The cap was not raised so the status quo will remain for at least two years +. This means the only unused frequencies are being held by Hainan (2 per week). All other carriers have fully utilised their allocations. What this means is any new route or additional frequencies on existing routes will have to come at the expense of existing routes. This is happening now on China Eastern shuffling some of its weekly flights around to Kunming via Nanjing to YVR instead of via PVG. And CA actually had its allocations reduced to only 15pw starting in October. The allocation is 11 on PEK-YVR and 4 on PEK-YUL. In YVR's case that is a huge reduction from 17 per week just on PEK-YVR. They were flying double daily in July and August plus an additional 3 weekly in August. The only other way for Chinese carriers to increase capacity is of course to start adding larger aircraft to existing routes which is already happening on some YVR routes anyway. Both MU and CA are expected to increase the gauge on the PVG and PEK to YVR routes. But unfortunately what we have is all we are getting for a few years. And also unfortunately the cap includes cargo routes as well.

Is there anyone on the forum that understands the Cargo market between China and Vancouver?

Obviously the belly cargo space has increased significantly with all the new flight. I would expect that meets a significant part of the demand. What does this mean for dedicated cargo? Canadian Cargo airlines tend to stick to domestic routes mostly. CargoJet has the odd European route and I believe they may be doing some runs into South America for Air Canada. Kelowna Flightcraft is not doing much these days.

Are there any Chinese cargo only aircraft coming into YVR on a regular basis?

Johnny Aussie Sep 3, 2016 9:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 7550823)
Are there any Chinese cargo only aircraft coming into YVR on a regular basis?

China Southern 3 x weekly to PVG on 77F.
The only other overseas cargo companies flying regular freighters to YVR are CX and KE.

As stated above, due to the China-Canada bilateral cap there are no available frequencies for any additional cargo flights unless an airline transfers some pax flights to cargo only... Highly unlikely.

Johnny Aussie Sep 3, 2016 9:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 7550822)
Interesting. Maybe AC might launch 2x or 3x weekly YUL-PEK after all.

Canadian carriers have plenty of unused frequency left, so the AC-CA JV might come in handy here....

Or YUL-PVG. That's pretty much the only way we will see any additional Canada-China flights for awhile. Canadian carriers have heaps of unused frequencies available.

The mystery still remains with Hainan and what they will do with the last remaining 2 unused flights per week.

jmt18325 Sep 4, 2016 2:02 AM

YWG-YYJ on New Leaf - $69 each way. I can't see them lasting with that. $10 one way and $20 the other.

urbanroo Sep 4, 2016 7:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie (Post 7550846)
Or YUL-PVG. That's pretty much the only way we will see any additional Canada-China flights for awhile. Canadian carriers have heaps of unused frequencies available.

The mystery still remains with Hainan and what they will do with the last remaining 2 unused flights per week.

Maybe Hainan will increase YYC to 5 a week? Or hopefully throw YEG a bone?! (Probably not).

Out of interest, are CX and other Hong Kong airlines part of the China bilateral, or do they have their own agreements?

thenoflyzone Sep 4, 2016 8:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by urbanroo (Post 7551239)
Maybe Hainan will increase YYC to 5 a week? Or hopefully throw YEG a bone?! (Probably not).

Out of interest, are CX and other Hong Kong airlines part of the China bilateral, or do they have their own agreements?

They have their own agreement with Canada.

http://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/hong-kong

casper Sep 4, 2016 9:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmt18325 (Post 7550950)
YWG-YYJ on New Leaf - $69 each way. I can't see them lasting with that. $10 one way and $20 the other.

When I had a few days ago they were asking $99 each way. Plus you add in fee for carry on baggage, the fee for checked baggage, the fee for printing a boarding pass at the airport. In short order it is the same if not more than Air Canada or WestJet.

I don't think New Leaf is going to last long at all.

jmt18325 Sep 4, 2016 9:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 7551297)
When I had a few days ago they were asking $99 each way. Plus you add in fee for carry on baggage, the fee for checked baggage, the fee for printing a boarding pass at the airport. In short order it is the same if not more than Air Canada or WestJet.

Why would you print your boarding pass at the airport? Why not pack light?

My worry is that they aren't making money, not that they're too expensive.

casper Sep 4, 2016 9:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 7551278)
They have their own agreement with Canada.

http://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/hong-kong

Does Macau have the same ability to independently develop their own agreements. It is a long shot. The TAP Air Portugal flight to Lisbon was the only long range flight to their and it only lasted for a short period of time when Portugal was running the administration in Macau.

Johnny Aussie Sep 5, 2016 6:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by urbanroo (Post 7551239)
Maybe Hainan will increase YYC to 5 a week? Or hopefully throw YEG a bone?! (Probably not).

That is very possible. What I do know is the Hainan group really wants to launch YVR-TSN (Tianjin) as part of their plan to build some overseas routes from there. They wanted 4 weekly on Tianjin or 5 weekly on Hainan. Now that Hainan only has 12 weekly frequencies allotted to them.... That leaves 2 available as 7 are used on YYZ-PEK and 3 on YYC-PEK. From my understanding they don't just want 2 per week on YVR-TSN. So in order to get the frequencies on that route they will have to pull these from elsewhere. YYZ is not an option from what I'm told. One of the other options is they just forget about YVR-TSN altogether. Considering they just launched YYC-PEK I just can't see them pulling it. Unless the flights are doing really poorly I would say it's safe. The fact they originally wanted to launch with 3 and then boost to 4 per week shortly thereafter then immediately pulled the 4th flight indicates they were happy with the 3 per week.

thenoflyzone Sep 5, 2016 10:37 AM

AM showing some love for YUL and YVR. YUL up to 11x weekly, YVR up to 10x weekly.

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/...rvice-in-1q17/

I know YYC is actively looking to add MEX to it's list of destinations. AM seems to have other plans.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie (Post 7551524)
Considering they just launched YYC-PEK I just can't see them pulling it. Unless the flights are doing really poorly I would say it's safe. The fact they originally wanted to launch with 3 and then boost to 4 per week shortly thereafter then immediately pulled the 4th flight indicates they were happy with the 3 per week.

If YYC doesn't meet their expectations, i could see them downgrade YYC to 2x weekly and start YVR-TSN with 3x weekly service, if they so desperately want to enter that market.

casper Sep 5, 2016 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmt18325 (Post 7551302)
Why would you print your boarding pass at the airport? Why not pack light?

My worry is that they aren't making money, not that they're too expensive.

They likely need the extra fees to make money. They playing games, cheap flight, but the surprise happens when you get to the airport.

They fly Victoria to Winnipeg twice per week. Your looking at a trip that is at least 3 days. The free baggage allowance is for something the size of a briefcase. Add in the fee for a normal carry on and your starting to get close to Air Canada or WestJet. At that point why bother with New Leaf.

I usually do online check in when at home. Coming back I will do online check in and digital boarding passes if it Air Canada with the air Canada app otherwise I print at airport. You could try playing with printers at the hotel business centre but why bother.

jmt18325 Sep 5, 2016 2:26 PM

I'm sorry, but $140 + baggage fees is still far less than anyone else.

casper Sep 5, 2016 3:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmt18325 (Post 7551604)
I'm sorry, but $140 + baggage fees is still far less than anyone else.

Looking at the Air Canada website for October AC is going for between $119 and $300 depending on where you make the connection and which day for Tango fares. The AC fare include a personal item + one carry on.

jmt18325 Sep 5, 2016 4:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 7551636)
Looking at the Air Canada website for October AC is going for between $119 and $300 depending on where you make the connection and which day for Tango fares. The AC fare include a personal item + one carry on.



The cheapest Air Canada flight all in is $319. New Leaf is $138.

casper Sep 5, 2016 6:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmt18325 (Post 7551656)
The cheapest Air Canada flight all in is $319. New Leaf is $138.

October 15 - YWG to YYJ (via YVR) AC295/AC8061
Total: $120

October 19 - YYJ to YWG (via YVR and YYC) AC8334/AC202/AC8334
Base - $91, Taxes $28 Total: $119

The Air Canada includes a carry on + personal item.

Is NewLeaf cheaper? Yes if can get by with a personal item and no carry on.

Does NewLeaf offer a direct non-stop flight when everyone else forces a connection? Yes.

Does NewLeaf fly every day? No
Does NewLeaf have multiple options per day? No
Does NewLeaf have a network and a mix of aircraft that can help with IROP? No.

JetsGO, Greyhound, Canada 3000, Royal, CanJet have all tried this model in Canada and they have not been able to make it work. WestJet did, but they focused on a single route Vancouver-Calgary at a time when Canadian Airlines was in trouble and starting to merge with Air Canada.


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