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Bigtime Aug 31, 2016 9:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster (Post 7547923)
Seems logical re: the competition angle. Will be interesting to see how it affects YYC. YYZ has so much O&D it will weather the storm, and YVR only loses two feeder flights, but YYC is very exposed, at a tough economic time. Wouldn't be shocked to see the flight go back to a 788 or 763.

LHR-YYC is still our strongest O&D market here in YYC I believe, so perhaps BA goes back to the 763 or sticks it out with the improved economics of the 788. We've seen the odd substitution to the 789 during the summer here as well.

DrNest Aug 31, 2016 9:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver (Post 7547906)
I wish WestJet would just hurry up and join OneWorld.

WestJet have a strong tie with KLM and Delta airlines. I would more likely expect them to join SkyTeam than OneWorld if they do join an alliance.

LeftCoaster Aug 31, 2016 9:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigtime (Post 7548021)
LHR-YYC is still our strongest O&D market here in YYC I believe, so perhaps BA goes back to the 763 or sticks it out with the improved economics of the 788. We've seen the odd substitution to the 789 during the summer here as well.

Hmm I thought the 789 was seeing more scheduled service from this posting from airlineroute:

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/...as-of-18jan16/

Did that not end up happening?

I would think BA would want to keep the dreamliner (either variant) on it as long as possible due to the better efficiency, and it's not really a ton more seats vs the 763. Maybe they pare back to 5xPW during the winter and daily during summer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrNest (Post 7548038)
WestJet have a strong tie with KLM and Delta airlines. I would more likely expect them to join SkyTeam than OneWorld if they do join an alliance.

That would make more sense. If you look at Canadian airports Skyteam is huge at YVR and YYZ compared to Oneworld.

Bigtime Sep 1, 2016 12:30 AM

Yeah that did end up happening, we had a good run of 789 service. Back to the 788 now. Agreed that the best thing is to keep the 788 on the route for the economical edge it gives them. AC has been running the 77L on the route for the summer.

SFUVancouver Sep 1, 2016 1:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie;7547949;
Hold on to your hats!! Wow just wow!

Overall up 11.0% up 225,722 to 2,270,986
Domestic up 7.2% up 73,179 to 1,094,929
Transborder up 9.7% up 49,776 to 563,597
Asia Pacific up 18.0% up 55,309 to 362,845
Europe up 19.3% up 35,421 to 219,169
Misc Int'l up 65.4% up 12,037 to 30,446

And note total YTD is now up 8.6% and OVER 1 million more pax than 2015!

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/docume...2016.pdf?la=en

Quoted text link.

After digging in further, as in, reading more than the first 'overall' line, I'm realizing just how huge these gains are! Wow. YVR is chugging along into truly uncharted territory. Can't wait to see the new (updated) Airport Master Plan revealed later this year. With an ostensible passenger capacity ceiling of 25 million, YVR will need to stamp on the gas to get the new facilities built if this is shaping up to be a 22 million passenger year!


After looking through the summary table (link), what I'm always interested in is "total tonnes on runway" (weight of aircraft) vs "total growth" (enplaned and deplaned passengers) vs "total arrivals and departures" (aircraft):

Total Tonnes on Runway
1,810,528[Jul '16] 1,681,328[Jul '15] 7.7%[yoy change] 10,531,520 [YTD '16] 9,908,360[YTD '15] 6.3%[yoy change]

Total Pax 2,270,986[Jul '16] 2,045,264[Jul '15] 11.0%[yoy change] 12,746,077[YTD '16] 11,738,611[YTD '15] 8.6%[yoy change]

Total arrivals and departures 32,353[Jul '16] 32,113[Jul '15] 0.7%[yoy change] 185,439[YTD '16] 185,053[YTD '15] 0.2%[yoy change]

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that year over year the number of aircraft is flat (actually a touch positive) but the number of passengers went up substantially and the aircraft tonnage went up, too, but not in lock step with passenger numbers. Therefore, the increase in passengers came through higher load factors on existing aircraft (more people in the same type of aircraft) and the up-gauging to larger, higher capacity, heavier aircraft. Since there are some entirely new routes and new carriers, this further tells us that there has been some rationalization (cuts) by carriers of the number of flights and/or routes they offer, but they are also using larger aircraft.

I think that this is a neat trend to observe and it helps explain how YVR is able to keep up with such sustained growth without a commensurate increase in the number of gates or enduring uncharacteristic congestion for departure runway slots.


Quote:

Originally Posted by DrNest (Post 7548038)
Quote:

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver (Post 7547906)
I wish WestJet would just hurry up and join OneWorld.

WestJet have a strong tie with KLM and Delta airlines. I would more likely expect them to join SkyTeam than OneWorld if they do join an alliance.

That's a good point. I rarely fly Delta and never fly KLM or Air France, so SkyTeam is honestly almost always off my radar. I know that it's growing steadily, but I still have it in my head that it's a Star Alliance-One World duopoly for airline alliances.

casper Sep 1, 2016 3:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver (Post 7548273)
Quoted text link.

After digging in further, as in, reading more than the first 'overall' line, I'm realizing just how huge these gains are! Wow. YVR is chugging along into truly uncharted territory. Can't wait to see the new (updated) Airport Master Plan revealed later this year. With an ostensible passenger capacity ceiling of 25 million, YVR will need to stamp on the gas to get the new facilities built if this is shaping up to be a 22 million passenger year!


After looking through the summary table (link), what I'm always interested in is "total tonnes on runway" (weight of aircraft) vs "total growth" (enplaned and deplaned passengers) vs "total arrivals and departures" (aircraft):

Total Tonnes on Runway
1,810,528[Jul '16] 1,681,328[Jul '15] 7.7%[yoy change] 10,531,520 [YTD '16] 9,908,360[YTD '15] 6.3%[yoy change]

Total Pax 2,270,986[Jul '16] 2,045,264[Jul '15] 11.0%[yoy change] 12,746,077[YTD '16] 11,738,611[YTD '15] 8.6%[yoy change]

Total arrivals and departures 32,353[Jul '16] 32,113[Jul '15] 0.7%[yoy change] 185,439[YTD '16] 185,053[YTD '15] 0.2%[yoy change]

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that year over year the number of aircraft is flat (actually a touch positive) but the number of passengers went up substantially and the aircraft tonnage went up, too, but not in lock step with passenger numbers. Therefore, the increase in passengers came through higher load factors on existing aircraft (more people in the same type of aircraft) and the up-gauging to larger, higher capacity, heavier aircraft. Since there are some entirely new routes and new carriers, this further tells us that there has been some rationalization (cuts) by carriers of the number of flights and/or routes they offer, but they are also using larger aircraft.

I think that this is a neat trend to observe and it helps explain how YVR is able to keep up with such sustained growth without a commensurate increase in the number of gates or enduring uncharacteristic congestion for departure runway slots.




That's a good point. I rarely fly Delta and never fly KLM or Air France, so SkyTeam is honestly almost always off my radar. I know that it's growing steadily, but I still have it in my head that it's a Star Alliance-One World duopoly for airline alliances.

I agree the overall trend with Air Canada and Jazz is:

Dash-8 -200 and 300 being replaced with Q400. Each flight has at extra 50-100 percent increase in seats.

The Airbus 319,320,321 all have extra seats. The Embrear fleet is shrinking and being replaced by Airbus aircraft.

Rogue is rolled out, adding more seats on A319 and 767 aircraft.

Long haul, the 777 have all gone from 9 across to 10 across in economy. The larger 787 have replaced 767.

It all adds up to more seats on the same aircraft.

Even WestJet has increased the number of seats on the 737 and replaced 737-700 with larger 737-800.

BA has ungagged to A380.

Overall its all about more seats on the same number of aircraft.

thenoflyzone Sep 1, 2016 1:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster (Post 7547803)
Anyone know what this is all about?


http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/...-mid-oct-2016/

This is somewhat worrying for YYC, as obviously their Westjet hub helps feed the BA flight from the entire prairie region. I'm sure the O&D still has decent traffic, but this can't be a good thing.

As long as the O&D is there, there is nothing to worry about. After all, BA fly to YUL as well and they dont codeshare on a single WS flight out of YUL (Mostly because there aren't that many to begin with ! )

Then again, if YYC-LHR were to be cut, now would be the perfect time to do so. End of the summer season.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver (Post 7548273)

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that year over year the number of aircraft is flat (actually a touch positive) but the number of passengers went up substantially and the aircraft tonnage went up, too, but not in lock step with passenger numbers. Therefore, the increase in passengers came through higher load factors on existing aircraft

This is a trend seen throughout Canada, not just YVR.

LO 044 Sep 1, 2016 1:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrNest (Post 7548038)
WestJet have a strong tie with KLM and Delta airlines. I would more likely expect them to join SkyTeam than OneWorld if they do join an alliance.

This was my assumption as well.

DrNest Sep 1, 2016 3:44 PM

I'd also be interested to see if Virgin Atlantic join SkyTeam as well. They have a joint venture partnership with Delta that permits codeshare on KLM and Air France metal too.
Although Virgin are no longer flying into CYYZ and stopping the CYVR route over this winter, I could see them reintroducing these routes, particularly if WestJet were to join SkyTeam too.

MalcolmTucker Sep 1, 2016 4:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrNest (Post 7548712)
I'd also be interested to see if Virgin Atlantic join SkyTeam as well. They have a joint venture partnership with Delta that permits codeshare on KLM and Air France metal too.
Although Virgin are no longer flying into CYYZ and stopping the CYVR route over this winter, I could see them reintroducing these routes, particularly if WestJet were to join SkyTeam too.

More than a joint venture, Delta owns 49% of Virgin Atlantic.

LeftCoaster Sep 1, 2016 8:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrNest (Post 7548712)
I'd also be interested to see if Virgin Atlantic join SkyTeam as well. They have a joint venture partnership with Delta that permits codeshare on KLM and Air France metal too.
Although Virgin are no longer flying into CYYZ and stopping the CYVR route over this winter, I could see them reintroducing these routes, particularly if WestJet were to join SkyTeam too.

Virgin Atlantic stopped YVR at least a year ago, possibly 2 years ago now.

Doubt they would re-enter at this point, the route is just too competitive with BA, AC, AT and WS.

LeftCoaster Sep 1, 2016 8:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 7548575)
As long as the O&D is there, there is nothing to worry about. After all, BA fly to YUL as well and they dont codeshare on a single WS flight out of YUL (Mostly because there aren't that many to begin with ! )
.

Well sure, but presumably the feed was providing something. There is definitely strong O&D between YYC and LHR but there are also nearly 6,000 seats per week through 4 operators so without a domestic feed BA is going to be have the hardest time filling those seats.

LeftCoaster Sep 1, 2016 9:22 PM

Cathay Pacific just announced they are increasing YVR service to 17x per week up from 14x and introducing Canada's first scheduled A350 service to fly the additional 3 frequencies.

http://www.yvr.ca/en/blog/cathay-pac...s-new-aircraft

Very excited to see this pretty bird gracing YVR and more airports across Canada as it rolls out:

https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/736/23...96ca8326_b.jpg
https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/736/23...96ca8326_b.jpg

https://cdn-business.discourse.org/u...0e310e1595.jpg
https://cdn-business.discourse.org/u...0e310e1595.jpg

Klazu Sep 1, 2016 11:37 PM

Good news just keep coming for YVR! We will now have all the new big birds flying to Vancouver and we may be seeing 22 million passengers this year. Leading the growth in Canada! :tup:

DrNest Sep 2, 2016 2:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster (Post 7549124)
Virgin Atlantic stopped YVR at least a year ago, possibly 2 years ago now.

Doubt they would re-enter at this point, the route is just too competitive with BA, AC, AT and WS.

You're right, I had an email about it and thought for some reason it was October this year they were stopping, it was actually October 2014 they stopped. I'm surprised it was so long ago. Time flies! (no pun intended)

Virgin have a reputation of picking and choosing the most popular routes. If there were decent profit to be made, they would come back, particularly if both Virgin and WestJet were in SkyTeam which would give obvious connections for Virgin passengers to other destinations in North America.

Canadian74 Sep 2, 2016 7:37 PM

Does QR still operate DOH-YUL?

G.S MTL Sep 2, 2016 7:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Canadian74 (Post 7550156)
Does QR still operate DOH-YUL?

yes it does! 3 weekly year round and it looks like Air CHina will increase PEK-YUL from 3 to 5 weekly beginning next year I believe.

Johnny Aussie Sep 3, 2016 6:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G.S MTL (Post 7550180)
yes it does! 3 weekly year round and it looks like Air CHina will increase PEK-YUL from 3 to 5 weekly beginning next year I believe.

Air China going to 4 weekly. 3 weekly PEK-YUL terminator and 1 weekly onto HAV.

thenoflyzone Sep 3, 2016 2:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G.S MTL (Post 7550180)
yes it does! 3 weekly year round and it looks like Air CHina will increase PEK-YUL from 3 to 5 weekly beginning next year I believe.

the 5x weekly is only a rumor for next summer.

They are confirmed going to 4x weekly as of Oct 30th.

There is a discussion going on airliners.net about YUL and the possibility of new routes. Someone on there mentioned with somewhat of a certainty that Rouge will start YUL-BEY next summer. I have my doubts, due to politics and national security, but apparently it's in the works.

http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewt...?f=3&t=1342129

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster (Post 7549194)
Cathay Pacific just announced they are increasing YVR service to 17x per week up from 14x and introducing Canada's first scheduled A350 service to fly the additional 3 frequencies.

So much for opening up YYC, YEG or YUL. Given the chance, they'll go triple daily year round to YVR before anything else. I don't blame them.

Alexcaban Sep 3, 2016 4:26 PM

I can almost guarantee you that YUL-BEY will be a mainline route flown by a 788. There is no way a fully loaded rouge 767 could make it. Especially if you let everyone bring 2 bags not to mention this 767 seats about 60 more people then the main line 767s. I'm sure the extra rouge 767 will be reserved for either YUL-ALG or MRS.


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