You're a funny guy New Brisavoine (and by funny I mean just as obnoxious a booster as the old Brisavoine).
You also should know that there are precious little examples in the history of the world where the "most probable" demographic predicion actually came true. Or did I miss something and does Brazil have 200 million? And are you trying to put one past us with your "300,000 a year" or do you really not understand? A couple of years of high immigration will totally change the demographic situation in Germany so there doesn't have to be 41 continous years of such numbers. Perhaps you don't understand the complexities of demographics? Anyway, Germany's economical and topographical position dictates that it is highly likely that at one point the current (minor) shrinkage will reverse (most likely because of more immigration and a lower death rate). Maybe you should look up France's demographic predictions after WW1 and see how much of that came true...:rolleyes: |
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Anyway, end of discussion with you as far as I'm concerned. Your position here seems more like a belief than an opinion based on facts, and there's no arguing with believers. Either you believe or you don't. |
Projections are not facts...
And agreed, end of discussion. If I was interested in this bullshit I would go to SSC. |
A consequence of the high birth rate in France highlighted in the Financial Times:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5c8b9130-f...0779fd2ac.html Quote:
|
Interesting, but how does an economic crisis affect the birthrate?
|
Quote:
|
I was going to say it usually raises the birthrate as people have a lot more time for some lovin' (there's always state aid for children) and we all know how the French love their lovin'... :)
|
Out of sheer curiosity, what is the demographic evoulution of Metropolitan France? I know the UK has seen a large rise in African/Middle Eastern/Eastern European populations. Are these higher brith rates for all ethno groups in France?
Even if you don't have offical graphs, I'd like to know one's layman position... |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
http://www.ibge.gov.br/english/defau...#sub_populacao Anyway I was refering to the infamously WRONG prediction by the UN years earlier that Brazil would have 200 million in 1995 (or something, I don't remember exactely). As it turns out they were off by about 45 million...:rolleyes: Just like it will turn out thet Brisavoine's "prediction" will be way off... |
Quote:
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
Quote:
|
Quote:
Anyway, in particular about Germany: In '90s Germany growth was high, due to immigration; now it is low Then in few years Germany trend changed dramatically: then making projections as Germany growth will be always that high or that low doesn't make much sense to me. As we saw conditions can change in few years. And in 50 years they can chenge again and again Let see Italy for istance. Its birth rate is very low since many years (just now it started to rise a while) During last '80s and '90s population stop at 56 mio and start decreasing: projections (projections of less than 10 years ago in any cases) told us in 2030 or so Italy population would reach 45 mio or so; and projections for 2k in early '90s was 55/54 mio Then... in 2008 Italy hit 60 mio |
The low birt rate is a tragedy for Germany, but we Germans don't have to worry about dying out. We have just outsourced our parts that are performing an population explosion to north America. Look at the german speaking Hutterites and Amish, they have fertility rates of about 8 children per woman and are doubling every 20 years. That leads to a birth rate of 4%. There are 300,000 o them, that makes 12,000 births per year. Thats 2% of the births in Germany.
You also have to look where the high birth rates in France are. The departement with the highest fertility rate in metropolitan France is Seine-Saint-Denis, the departement with one of the highest migrant share in France (fertility in 2005: 2.4). Remember the car burnings in 2005? That's the departement where it started. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
If you want to participate in this thread, at least try to check your facts and don't post wrong information. |
Quote:
http://www.statistiques-locales.inse...sl/accueil.asp , it says that Seine Saint Denis has a fertility rate of 2,42 and Mayenne is second with 2,27 children per woman in 2005. You can find this data in the france par departement section. Where did you get your data? |
All times are GMT. The time now is 2:12 PM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.