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-   -   Sunbelt battle for #2? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=240851)

JManc Nov 11, 2019 6:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt (Post 8745182)
As overpriced as Florida real estate has become, it's still about 1/3 - 1/5 the price of California depending on city v city location comparisons.

California is an outlier but South Florida is still pretty expensive. My wife and I were exploring getting a second home around Ft. Lauderdale but set our sights on New Orleans instead. Much cheaper there.

Sun Belt Nov 11, 2019 8:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LA21st (Post 8745242)
Obviously, I didn't mention net migration. Not sure why these things are so hard to understand.

Because you said this:
"By percentage,Florida and New York have more people leave than california."

Which doesn't matter because Florida is the top destination in terms of net domestic migration and international migration.

In other words, grouping a state like Florida with New York isn't really telling an accurate story.

LA21st Nov 11, 2019 9:54 PM

Over 470,000 people left Florida last year. Florida just gained more people from other states to negate it. It doesn't change the fact that 470,000 people still left the state. Which would be more than California departures, by percentage, by a good amount too.

From an article-

The exodus from California also led among other states. Only the numbers for Texas, Florida, and New York came close.

Texas lost 462,000; New York lost 458,000; and Florida lost 470,000.


According to the Census data, most Californians found themselves heading to Texas, Arizona, Washington, Nevada, and Oregon.

Texas - 86,000
Arizona - 68,000
Washington - 55,000
Nevada - 50,000
Oregon - 43,000
Idaho was not far behind its Pacific Northwest neighbors, with an estimated 21,000.

While California led in people leaving the state in 2018, it came in third for the number of people who moved in.
The state was behind Florida, who had 587,000, and Texas, who saw 563,000 move in

Crawford Nov 11, 2019 10:47 PM

California metros often have lower housing burden than Florida metros, because salaries suck. SF is cheap compared to Miami.

craigs Nov 11, 2019 11:37 PM

According to the Sacramento Bee, in 2018, about 691,000 Californians moved to another state and 501,000 people moved into California from other states.

That net domestic loss is a grand total of 190,000 people. Considering the state was estimated at 39,557,045 in 2018, that "exodus" amounts to a mere 0.48% of the total population.

Yet that kind of small deficit is more than overcome through international immigration and natural increase: between 2010 and 2018, California's population increased by 6.2%, or roughly 2,303,089 people, and is still growing.

Will O' Wisp Nov 12, 2019 6:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8745594)
According to the Sacramento Bee, in 2018, about 691,000 Californians moved to another state and 501,000 people moved into California from other states.

That net domestic loss is a grand total of 190,000 people. Considering the state was estimated at 39,557,045 in 2018, that "exodus" amounts to a mere 0.48% of the total population.

Yet that kind of small deficit is more than overcome through international immigration and natural increase: between 2010 and 2018, California's population increased by 6.2%, or roughly 2,303,089 people, and is still growing.

I got 2.4 million gained going on US census estimates for population 2010-2018 (37.32 million to 39.56). Perhaps more salient to the current conversation, during the same time period Texas gained 3.5 million people and Florida 2.4 million.

Getting things more recent, in 2018 California gained about 150,000 new residents, Texas 400,000, and Florida 320,000. For comparison New York lost 50,000 people, bringing it nearly back to where it started at the beginning of the decade.

But then, it's hard to know just how much California's growth is being hampered by lack of affordable housing. The state government is really starting to crack down on localities that refuse to build. SoCal alone is essentially being forced to permit 1.5 million new homes by 2030, or enough for 4.5 million people just on its own.

Sun Belt Nov 12, 2019 2:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LA21st (Post 8745497)
Over 470,000 people left Florida last year. Florida just gained more people from other states to negate it. It doesn't change the fact that 470,000 people still left the state. Which would be more than California departures, by percentage, by a good amount too.

From an article-

The exodus from California also led among other states. Only the numbers for Texas, Florida, and New York came close.

Texas lost 462,000; New York lost 458,000; and Florida lost 470,000.


According to the Census data, most Californians found themselves heading to Texas, Arizona, Washington, Nevada, and Oregon.

Texas - 86,000
Arizona - 68,000
Washington - 55,000
Nevada - 50,000
Oregon - 43,000
Idaho was not far behind its Pacific Northwest neighbors, with an estimated 21,000.

While California led in people leaving the state in 2018, it came in third for the number of people who moved in.
The state was behind Florida, who had 587,000, and Texas, who saw 563,000 move in

The difference is California is net negative and Florida is net positive.

Florida is 1st and California at 49th. They could not be more different.

LA21st Nov 12, 2019 3:45 PM

Ugh. You keep glossing over a simple point. What you're talking about is something different, as I've already stated.

I know you don't want to accept that hundreds of thousands of people leave Texas and Florida a year, but they do. As with Calfiornia and New York, much of this is due to higher populations. Calfiornia has the most, by far, so it's not weird more people would leave than any other state.

How this is incomprehensible is hilarious.

LA21st Nov 12, 2019 3:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8745594)
According to the Sacramento Bee, in 2018, about 691,000 Californians moved to another state and 501,000 people moved into California from other states.

That net domestic loss is a grand total of 190,000 people. Considering the state was estimated at 39,557,045 in 2018, that "exodus" amounts to a mere 0.48% of the total population.

Yet that kind of small deficit is more than overcome through international immigration and natural increase: between 2010 and 2018, California's population increased by 6.2%, or roughly 2,303,089 people, and is still growing.

According to certain posters, the state is dying. :koko:
Oh, and the entire state is on fire, there's homeless on every block, and everyone struggles to get something to eat. We're all in danger of getting medieval dieeases as well, because Fox News said so.

Obadno Nov 12, 2019 4:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LA21st (Post 8746088)
According to certain posters, the state is dying. :koko:
Oh, and the entire state is on fire, there's homeless on every block, and everyone struggles to get something to eat. We're all in danger of getting medieval dieeases as well, because Fox News said so.

Dude all you do is straw-man for California like its your PR job. What gives?

Domestic out-migration is not a good sign for Californians future nobody has ever suggested that California is in imminent or prolonged collapse but for 7 years running people have been leaving the state.

The homeless issues, the failing infrastructure, the expense, the tax burden, the mismanagement of the cities. This isnt a "fox news" conspiracy its reported all over the press from the very far right to the very far left.

Stop taking it so personally its weird.

LA21st Nov 12, 2019 6:05 PM

Nah, I find the "demise of California: opinions to be exaggerated and comical.

JManc Nov 12, 2019 6:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt (Post 8746011)
The difference is California is net negative and Florida is net positive.

Florida is 1st and California at 49th. They could not be more different.

California was #3 in numeric growth from 2017-2018 after Texas and Florida. It's getting about half the new population as TX/ FL and has 10 and 17 million on the next two most populous states so the percentage growth is a lot lower which isn't really a bad thing.

Centropolis Nov 12, 2019 6:34 PM

like i woke up with a stomach ache and nausea the other night but couldn't vomit. that's what this thread is like (and all the sunbelt/california threads)

craigs Nov 12, 2019 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Obadno (Post 8746179)
Domestic out-migration is not a good sign for Californians future

Disagreed--how is that true? Given the state's current problems, I'd say domestic out-migration is more likely a good thing than a bad thing right now.

California sent 691,000 people to other states in 2018 and received 501,000 people from other states in 2018, for a net domestic out-migration amounting to less than 0.5% of the state's total population. Yet California continues to grow via natural increase and international immigration, adding 6.2%, or roughly 2,303,089 people, to its total population between 2010 and 2018.

What if we didn't experience net domestic out-migration during that time frame? The population would have grown roughly a half a percent faster in 2018 alone, and cumulatively over this decade, we'd have hundreds of thousands more Californians than we do right now.

How would it be an improvement to add hundreds of thousands more Californians to the current population, clogging up the roads and increasing pollution, competing with the rest of us (and with all the kids growing up, and with foreign immigrants) for housing, employment, educational resources, mental health and homeless services, etc.? It wouldn't be.

No, that even more crowded and competitive scenario would be worse than the one we face today, not better. So why the hand-wringing and phony assertions to the contrary? Why the assertion that whatever is happening in California is necessarily bad and negative and destructive? Hmm....

Quote:

This isnt a "fox news" conspiracy its reported all over the press from the very far right to the very far left.
That's the correct answer!

The orchestrated campaign to deride, denounce, and derail California for its political sins by the Trump regime, its partisans and culture warriors, and their propaganda outlet Fox is the reason we're getting all this phony 'concern trolling' over Californians' well-being right now. Oh, they have not one iota of actual concern for us--but they've got the trolling down pat. And it is that Trumpian crusade against California that creates the larger context in which this forum's anti-California threads are understood by locals.

badrunner Nov 13, 2019 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LA21st (Post 8746086)
Ugh. You keep glossing over a simple point. What you're talking about is something different, as I've already stated.

I know you don't want to accept that hundreds of thousands of people leave Texas and Florida a year, but they do. As with Calfiornia and New York, much of this is due to higher populations. Calfiornia has the most, by far, so it's not weird more people would leave than any other state.

How this is incomprehensible is hilarious.

This isn't the first time. I've noticed Sun Belt gets easily confused by complex data sets. If it's on purpose it's clearly trolling, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt :)

jtown,man Nov 13, 2019 12:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8746597)
Disagreed--how is that true? Given the state's current problems, I'd say domestic out-migration is more likely a good thing than a bad thing right now.

California sent 691,000 people to other states in 2018 and received 501,000 people from other states in 2018, for a net domestic out-migration amounting to less than 0.5% of the state's total population. Yet California continues to grow via natural increase and international immigration, adding 6.2%, or roughly 2,303,089 people, to its total population between 2010 and 2018.

What if we didn't experience net domestic out-migration during that time frame? The population would have grown roughly a half a percent faster in 2018 alone, and cumulatively over this decade, we'd have hundreds of thousands more Californians than we do right now.

How would it be an improvement to add hundreds of thousands more Californians to the current population, clogging up the roads and increasing pollution, competing with the rest of us (and with all the kids growing up, and with foreign immigrants) for housing, employment, educational resources, mental health and homeless services, etc.? It wouldn't be.

No, that even more crowded and competitive scenario would be worse than the one we face today, not better. So why the hand-wringing and phony assertions to the contrary? Why the assertion that whatever is happening in California is necessarily bad and negative and destructive? Hmm....


That's the correct answer!

The orchestrated campaign to deride, denounce, and derail California for its political sins by the Trump regime, its partisans and culture warriors, and their propaganda outlet Fox is the reason we're getting all this phony 'concern trolling' over Californians' well-being right now. Oh, they have not one iota of actual concern for us--but they've got the trolling down pat. And it is that Trumpian crusade against California that creates the larger context in which this forum's anti-California threads are understood by locals.

No. California has been known for its extreme prices and homeless people for the last 20 years. Stop blaming EVERYTHING on Trump. Also, the articles I've seen posted on here and other places are all from rather liberal online outlets.

badrunner Nov 13, 2019 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8746597)
Disagreed--how is that true? Given the state's current problems, I'd say domestic out-migration is more likely a good thing than a bad thing right now.

California sent 691,000 people to other states in 2018 and received 501,000 people from other states in 2018, for a net domestic out-migration amounting to less than 0.5% of the state's total population. Yet California continues to grow via natural increase and international immigration, adding 6.2%, or roughly 2,303,089 people, to its total population between 2010 and 2018.

California would be close to 50 million in population right now if it had continued net positive domestic migration. Housing would be more expensive, there would be worse traffic and pollution, lower quality of life.

The free market is not obligated to provide affordable housing in desirable areas for everyone who wants it.

toddguy Nov 13, 2019 1:11 PM

Dallas/Fort Worth. already over 7 million, can sprawl in every direction, high enough to not have to worry about rising sea levels, too far inland to get the worst effects of hurricanes.
Dallas seems to have everything going for it.

Crawford Nov 13, 2019 1:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8746730)
No. California has been known for its extreme prices and homeless people for the last 20 years. Stop blaming EVERYTHING on Trump.

Except no one blamed high housing values and homeless on Trump. And CA has had high housing prices and homeless for the last 40 years, at least. CA has probably always had more "street people" given the climate.

People are correctly pointing out that Dotard frequently cites California as a "disaster" when it's plausibly the most successful geography on the planet. At the very least, it's unquestionably the most innovative place on the planet.

Sun Belt Nov 13, 2019 2:17 PM

These realities are not a good thing in the long term:

1] Net negative domestic growth
2] Slowing international growth
3] Natural increase in decline
4] An aging population

This is the reality in California. There are currently 6 million seniors in the state. By 2030 there will be 9 million. Over 20% of the population will be over 66 years of age -- more than Florida -- yet not nearly as affordable as low cost, low tax Florida.


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