The French statistical office has FINALLY published the final birth figures of France for 2012. So we now have the birth figures of all the major European countries for 2012.

In 2012, there were 821,047 births in France (not counting Mayote and the overseas collectivities). That's 0.3% less than in 2011, a small decline explained entirely by the decline in the number of women of child-bearing age (the numerous cohorts born during the baby-boom are "retiring" from maternity). The total fertility rate remained the same as in 2011.

If we include Mayotte and the overseas collectivities, then there were approx. 840,000 births in the entire France in 2012.

Births in 2012 (in parenthesis, comparison with 2008, the last year before the economic crisis):
- Russia: 1,896,263 (+10.6% compared to 2008)
- France: 821,047 (not counting Mayotte and overseas collectivities) / ca. 840,000 (entire France) (-0.9% compared to 2008)
- UK: 812,970 (+2.3% compared to 2008)
- Germany: 673,570 (-1.3% compared to 2008)
- Italy: 534,186 (-7.4% compared to 2008)
- Ukraine: 520,704 (+2.0% compared to 2008)
- Spain: 453,637 (-12.7% compared to 2008)
- Poland: 386,257 (-6.8% compared to 2008)

Of course these percentages may not necessarily reflect a change in family behaviors due to the crisis. They may also reflect a change in the number of women of child-bearing age which is an echo of past baby-booms. For instance in France, the number of births has declined by 0.9% between 2008 and 2012, but the fertility rate has actually risen slightly, which means the women of child-bearing age actually had more babies in 2012 than in 2008, but there were less women to give birth, which led to a decline in the total number of births. In the former USSR, it's the opposite, the number of women of child-bearing age is increasing due to the baby-boom of the 1980s, which automatically increases the total number of births, regardless of the TFR.

We also now have the death figures for all the major European countries for 2012.

Number of deaths in 2012 (in parenthesis, variation compared to 2011):
- Russia: 1,898,836 (-1.4%)
- Germany: 869,582 (+2.0%)
- Ukraine: 663,139 (-0.2%)
- Italy: 612,883 (+3.3%)
- UK: 569,024 (+3.0%)
- France: 568,300 (not counting Mayotte and the overseas collectivities) / ca. 572,000 (entire France) (+4.3%)
- Spain: 405,615 (+4.6%)
- Poland: 384,788 (+2.5%)

Aging can be seen everywhere in Europe in those figures, except in the former USSR where the small cohorts born during the brutal German invasion are resulting in less deaths than when the more numerous pre-WW2 cohorts were dying until a few years ago. Given that Poland also has small WW2 cohorts, it's surprising the number of deaths there is not currently decreasing as in the former USSR (perhaps because life expectancy is higher in Poland, so the pre-WW2 Polish cohorts are still in the process of dying).

Net natural change (births minus deaths) in 2012:
- France: +252,747 (not counting Mayotte and the overseas collectivities) / ca. +268,000 (entire France)
- UK: +243,946
- Spain: +48,022
- Poland: +1,469
- Russia: -2,573 (the least-bad negative figure since 1991; at its worst in 2000, Russia had a natural change of -958,532)
- Italy: -78,697 (the largest negative natural change since WW2)
- Ukraine: -142,435 (the least-bad negative figure since 1992; at its worst in 2000, Ukraine had a natural change of -372,956)
- Germany: -196,012 (the largest negative natural change since 1975)

However, they certainly do most the time. 2011 was still hit by the effects of the recession over there, but they're definitely recovering. See the CIA World Factbook 2013 estimate, they're at 2.06.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat.../2127rank.html

CIA World Factbook is the crappiest source for such data. It's always outdated and full of guesstimates.

The only official figures come from the CDC, and the last figures available are those from 2011. The situation wasn't any better in 2012 anyway, judging from preliminary figures. The US TFR remained most likely below 1.90 in 2012. The TFR of White women in the US is even lower. It's only thanks to the Hispanic immigrants that the US TFR was briefly above replacement rate in the mid-2000s.

The CDC publishes the fertility rates by races. I mentioned that because in Europe the US is usually hailed as a Western country that has managed to keep a high fertility, but it obscures the fact that this relatively high TFR was (it's no longer that high) due to essentially the Hispanic women, most of whom are immigrants. If we take the TFR only of the non-Hispanic White women, then it's very similar to the TFR in some parts of Europe.

Here are the data, keeping in mind that it takes a TFR of 2.075 to ensure the replacement of generations. The US TFR was above replacement rate only in 2006 and 2007.

TFR in 2005:
US, all races: 2.06
- non-Hispanic White women: 1.87
- Hispanic women: 2.79
- non-Hispanic Black women: 2.03
- Asian women: 1.78

TFR in 2006:
US, all races: 2.11
- non-Hispanic White women: 1.90
- Hispanic women: 2.86
- non-Hispanic Black women: 2.13
- Asian women: 1.80

TFR in 2007:
US, all races: 2.12
- non-Hispanic White women: 1.91
- Hispanic women: 2.84
- non-Hispanic Black women: 2.14
- Asian women: 1.85

TFR in 2008:
US, all races: 2.072
- non-Hispanic White women: 1.87
- Hispanic women: 2.71
- non-Hispanic Black women: 2.12
- Asian women: 1.80

TFR in 2009:
US, all races: 2.00
- non-Hispanic White women: 1.83
- Hispanic women: 2.53
- non-Hispanic Black women: 2.05
- Asian women: 1.74

TFR in 2010:
US, all races: 1.93
- non-Hispanic White women: 1.79
- Hispanic women: 2.35
- non-Hispanic Black women: 1.97
- Asian women: 1.69

TFR in 2011:
US, all races: 1.89
- non-Hispanic White women: 1.77
- Hispanic women: 2.24
- non-Hispanic Black women: 1.92
- Asian women: 1.71

Among the Hispanic women, it's essentially the Central and South American women who drive the fertility rate. Mexican women also have a high fertility rate in the US, although not as high as Central and South American women. Puerto Rican and Cuban women in the US, on the other hand, have a depressed fertility rate. Cuban women in the US, in particular, had a TFR of only 1.56 and 1.54 in 2006 and 2007, and lower since then (only 1.43 in 2011).

Yeah, right. That sure sounds absolutely unbiased. What matters in those statistics is their trend anyway. They are recovering, whether you like it or not.

Besides, I don't see the point of your racial/ethnic worries. Especially when you're taking Hispanics as a racial group. That's pretty damn fuzzy and funny, and completely helpless. You could also mention French immigrants and their kids over there. There's been quite a few hundreds of thousands of them over the past couple of decades, I believe. Visit the East Coast (especially New York) or California, you'll see that French immigrants smiling at you when they hear you speaking French are no longer anything unusual at all.

I think if we had some official and detailed ethnic statistics of the French population, you would probably realize more accurately that African immigrants are widely responsible for the encouraging figures in France. Most of them being uneducated and poor when coming over here, but that's no big deal. It just takes a couple of generations at most to make them benefit from the upward social mobility, at least if the French immobility in the middle of the moving world doesn't end up impoverishing the entire country. Oh, it might also take a few millions more, so they can defend themselves against racial discriminations more effectively. :)

You love my posts, huh? Well, enjoy.

No sign of recovery. The number of births in the US was 3,953,593 in 2011, and 3,958,000 (provisional figure) in 2012. The TFR will be published later this year, but given the number of births, it's unlikely that the TFR has recovered.

http://i43.tinypic.com/25r2dmt.png

CIA factbook IS crap. Their figures usually are different from the official figures, even when it comes to the US, as Brisavoine has shown.

But the trend is changing, right? It's like when the unemployment graph sometimes gets flat over here, that's enough to satisfy them politicians in office. They tell you - there's no more worsening! now decrease is coming! It's pretty much the same here, except I'm no doubt that the US will fix their fertility rate much, much faster than we'll be able to fix our unemployment issues.

An article in the Financial Times which highlights the rising anti-immigration feelings in the UK. The article is of course unashamedly biased in favor of immigration (the City of London and its news outlets the Financial Times and The Economist are very vocal supporters of immigration in order to drive down wages in the UK), but it's interesting nonetheless.

The mid-2012 population estimate of the UK has been published by the UK statistical office, ONS.

The population of the UK reached 63,705,030 on July 1, 2012. That's an increase of 419,885 people in one year, or +0.66%.

Natural growth (births minus deaths) was +254,400 in one year, and net migration (in-migration minus out-migration) was +165,600. Net migration thus contributed to 39% of population growth. Migration to the UK has slowed down only very slightly despite the economic crisis that the UK has experienced since 2008 (the worst economic crisis in Britain since the Napoleonic Wars), and the Conservatives' promise to bring net migration to below +100,000 seems as elusive as ever.

We now have the mid-2012 population estimates for the three largest EU countries.

Population in mid-2012:
- Germany: 80,327,900
- France: 66,215,400
- UK: 63,705,030

Interestingly, the higher UK population than estimated before the 2011 census has led to a decrease in the GDP per capita of the UK. At the same time, the lower population of Germany revealed by the 2011 German census had led to an increase in the GDP per capita of Germany. As a result, the GDP per capita ranking of the three largest European economies has changed significantly.

This is the new GDP per capita in 2012, based on the latest GDP figures and population estimates published, in US dollars at purchasing power parity (PPP):
- Germany: $41,143
- France: $36,001
- UK: $35,551

Of course these figures would have to be nuanced a bit, because there are more children in France and the UK than in Germany, so a lower GDP per capita in France and the UK does not necessarily mean lower standards of living (children do not produce anything, so a higher number of children means a lower GDP per capita, even though the standard of living remains the same).

Population growth since the end of WW2 for the three largest countries in the EU.

Population in Oct. 1946:
- Germany: 65,995,000
- UK: 49,167,000
- France: 41,371,000

Population in July 2012:
- Germany: 80,327,900
- France: 66,215,400
- UK: 63,705,030

Absolute population growth from 1946 to 2012:
- France: +24,845,000 people
- UK: +14,538,000
- Germany: 14,333,000

Relative population growth from 1946 to 2012:
- France: +60.1% (i.e. +0.72% per year)
- UK: +29.6% (i.e. +0.40% per year)
- Germany: +21.7% (i.e. +0.30% per year)

+ Portugal.

http://i43.tinypic.com/333h35k.png

France
Portugal
Spain
United Kingdom

TFR in 2011 (top and bottom):
- Peterborough (Cambridgeshire): 2.30
- Blackburn with Darwen (Lancashire): 2.29
- Slough (Berkshire): 2.28
- Tarn-et-Garonne (northern commuter belt of Toulouse): 2.24
- Vaucluse (Provence): 2.23
- Denbighshire (Wales): 2.23
- Stoke-on-Trent (Staffordshire): 2.22
- Eure (Normandy): 2.20
- Torbay (Devon): 2.20
- Aisne (Picardy): 2.19
- Mayenne (Maine): 2.19
- Luton 2,19
- Loir-et-Cher (Loire Valley): 2.18
- Pas-de-Calais: 2.18
...
...
...
- Pinhal Interior Norte (Beira): 1.10
- La Coruña Province (Galicia): 1.09
- Canary Islands: 1.07
- Alto Trás-os-Montes: 1.07
- Asturias: 1.05
- León Province (Castile and León): 1.05
- Zamora Province (Castile and León): 1.01
- Pinhal Interior Sul (Beira): 0.99
- Lugo Province (Galicia): 0.98
- Ourense Province (Galicia): 0.97

TFR of the French and UK regions compared. UK regions are based on the results of the 2011 census, except Scotland.

TFR in 2011:
- Mayotte: N/A
- French Guiana: 3.44
- La Réunion: 2.36
- Guadeloupe: 2.17
- Nord-Pas-de-Calais: 2.11
- Picardy: 2.10
- Pays de la Loire: 2.09
- Upper Normandy: 2.08
- Centre (Loire Valley): 2.06
- Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: 2.05
- Rhône-Alpes: 2.04
- Paris Region (Île-de-France): 2.03
- West Midlands: 2.02
- Northern Ireland: 2.02
- Franche-Comté: 2.01
- Brittany: 2.01
- Champagne-Ardenne: 1.99
- Lower Normandy: 1.99
- East of England: 1.99
- Languedoc-Roussillon: 1.98
- South East England: 1.96
- South West England: 1.95
- East Midlands: 1.94
- Burgundy: 1.93
- North West England: 1.93
- Yorkshire and the Humber: 1.92
- Poitou-Charentes: 1.90
- Wales: 1.90
- Martinique: 1.88
- Midi-Pyrénées: 1.87
- Auvergne: 1.85
- North East England: 1.85
- Alsace: 1.84
- Limousin: 1.84
- London Region (Greater London): 1.84
- Aquitaine: 1.81
- Lorraine: 1.78
- Scotland: 1.73 (figure might be lower once the census 2011 is taken into account)
- Corsica: 1.65

For Germany I have the data based on the old figures, but I think it's good to wait until the new census figures have finally been published. Then I will recalculate fertility for the German counties.

Yes, it's best to wait until they finally publish the 2011 German population figures by sex and age.

The French statistical office has published the number of immigrants living in France at the Jan. 2010 census. Here is the evolution in the number of immigrants between the Jan. 2008 census and the Jan. 2010 census (I didn't keep the 2009 census figures, and they are not available on the INSEE website anymore).

An immigrant is someone born outside of France and who wasn't a French citizen at birth. Children of French expats born abroad are not considered as immigrants when they return to France. Children of immigrants born on French soil are not considered as immigrants.

The figures here show the cumulative trends in migration to France in 2008 and 2009. The number of immigrants can grow only due to new arrivals in France. The number of immigrants can decrease either due to departures from France or due to deaths of old immigrants in France.

In Metropolitan France (the Eurorpean part of France).

Absolute evolution in the number of immigrants from Jan. 2008 to Jan. 2010:
- all immigrants: +169,147 people
- immigrants from Morocco: +17,372
- immigrants from Algeria: +16,492
- immigrants from Romania: +16,205
- immigrants from China: +9,728
- immigrants from Portugal: +7,682
- immigrants from Tunisia: +7,194
- immigrants from Russia: +7,073
- immigrants from the Congo-Kinshasa: +6,857
- immigrants from Turkey: +6,853
- immigrants from Cameroon: +6,115
...
...
...
- immigrants from Vietnam: -388
- immigrants from Laos: -654
- immigrants from Germany: -3,110
- immigrants from Spain: -9,034
- immigrants from Italy: -13,423

Relative evolution in the number of immigrants from Jan. 2008 to Jan. 2010 (only the immigrant communities with more than 10,000 members in Metropolitan France are included):
- immigrants from Romania: +32.2%
- immigrants from Armenia: +24.3%
- immigrants from Bulgaria: +18.6%
- immigrants from Russia: +16.8%
- immigrants from Guinea-Conakry: +13.2%
- immigrants from the Congo-Kinshasa: +13.0%
- immigrants from Brazil: +12.9%
- immigrants from Ukraine: +12.9%
- immigrants from China: +12.4%
- immigrants from the Philippines: +11.8%
...
...
- all immigrants: +3.2%
...
...
- immigrants from Vietnam: -0.5%
- immigrants from Lebanon: -0.7%
- immigrants from Laos: -1.9%
- immigrants from Germany: -2.4%
- immigrants from Spain: -3.5%
- immigrants from Italy: -4.2%

In the 4 old overseas departments (Réunion, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and French Guiana).

Absolute evolution in the number of immigrants from Jan. 2008 to Jan. 2010:
- all immigrants: +2,720 people
- immigrants from Suriname: +781
- immigrants from Madagascar: +559
- immigrants from Haiti: +400
- immigrants from the Comoros: +260 (keep in mind that Mayotte is not included)
- immigrants from the Dominican Republic: +243
- immigrants from Colombia: +140
- immigrants from Dominica: +93
- immigrants from Italy: +85
- immigrants from Belgium: +83
- immigrants from Syria: +74
...
...
...
- immigrants from Lebanon: -34
- immigrants from the UK: -54
- immigrants from China: -72
- immigrants from Laos: -73
- immigrants from Brazil: -96
- immigrants from Guyana: -126

Relative evolution in the number of immigrants from Jan. 2008 to Jan. 2010 (only the immigrant communities with more than 200 members in the overseas departments are included):
- immigrants from Colombia: +55.7%
- immigrants from Syria: +22.1%
- immigrants from Tunisia: +17.8%
- immigrants from the Dominican Republic: +17.6%
- immigrants from the Comoros: +17.6%
- immigrants from Cuba: +17.5%
- immigrants from Italy: +17.2%
- immigrants from Peru: +12.5%
- immigrants from Vietnam: +11.5%
- immigrants from Spain: +11.3%
...
...
- all immigrants: +2.6%
...
...
- immigrants from Guyana: -3.5%
- immigrants from China: -3.7%
- immigrants from Laos: -8.1% (probably due to the death of old Hmong immigrants relocated from the jungles of Laos to the jungles of French Guiana in the 1970s)
- immigrants from Lebanon: -8.6%
- immigrants from Cameroon: -12.1%
- immigrants from the UK: -14.2%

A map showing the evolution in the number of immigrants in Metropolitan France (the European territory of France) from Jan. 2008 to Jan. 2010, by regions of origin of the immigrants.

Two things to keep in mind:
1- migrations from Overseas France to Metropolitan France are not included, so the figures shown on the map for the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean, and the Pacific do NOT include migrations from the French territories there to Metropolitan France
2- figures shown here include both legal and illegal immigrants, because the census counts all immigrants, regardless of their legal status

http://i39.tinypic.com/etv6uw.png

Since this is an issue that is often talked about, I've looked at the number of Muslims among the immigrants in France. Religion is not asked in the French census, so I've looked at the countries of origin of the immigrants. For each country of origin, I have assigned the percentage of Muslims in that country as published by the Pew Research Center here: http://features.pewforum.org/muslim-population/

Here are the results. In 2010, there were 5,405,754 immigrants living in Metropolitan France. 42.8% of them were potentially Muslim (using the percentages of the Pew Research Center), and 57.2% were non-Muslim. The increase in the total number of immigrants from Jan. 2008 to Jan. 2010 was due 46.3% to Muslim immigrants and 53.7% to non-Muslim immigrants. The percentage of potentially Muslim immigrants in Metropolitan France thus rose only very slightly from 42.7% of all immigrants in Jan. 2008 to 42.8% in Jan. 2010.

Regarding the immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa (black and purple areas on my map), 662,917 lived in Metropolitan France in Jan. 2010. 38.4% of them were potentially Muslim, and 61.6% were non-Muslim. The increase in the total number of sub-Saharan African immigrants from Jan. 2008 to Jan. 2010 was due 39.3% to Muslim immigrants and 60.7% to non-Muslim immigrants. The percentage of potentially Muslim immigrants among the sub-Saharan African immigrants in Metropolitan France thus rose only very slightly from 38.3% of all sub-Saharan African immigrants in Jan. 2008 to 38.4% in Jan. 2010.

The largest groups of Muslim immigrants living in Metropolitan France in 2010 came from:
- Algeria: 716,177 Muslim immigrants
- Morocco: 670,056
- Turkey: 242,244
- Tunisia: 241,152
- Senegal: 76,217
- Mali: 56,551
- Ivory Coast: 25,845
- Comoros: 25,109
- Egypt: 22,604
- Lebanon: 21,073 (probably an exaggerated number, because the Lebanese immigrants in France are more predominantly Christian that is the case in the general population of Lebanon)
- Guinea-Conakry: 19,854
- Iran: 19,371
- Pakistan: 18,204
- Mauritania: 14,067
- Cameroon: 12,341

[rolling drums] Tomorrow the German statistical office will release in a press conference the post-censal population estimates of Germany as of Jan. 1, 2013. We'll find out how many immigrants are estimated to have arrived in Germany in 2012, and by how many people the total population of Germany grew in 2012. [/rolling drums]