The equation that most economic spin off reports use is that for every 1 job - there is usually a spin off of between 3 to 4 jobs in the service industry.

For the sake of math; I'll assume the lower (3 jobs).
So that could be a spin off of some 34500 jobs in the service sector.

Another interesting result is that Halifax could be the de facto shipbuilding centre remaining for Canada. I think this is pretty reasonable from a national perspective since the shipyard did well even without government contracts, while the Davie yards (for example) are barely solvent. Halifax has the offshore, navy, and shipping. No other city has all 3 of those.

It makes a lot of sense economically to centralize and have a major facility capable of taking on large projects rather than a bunch of small yards that are always struggling.

On their own merit it is clear the two front runners are BC and NS yards. After that, it gets interesting if politics is involved (which the government swears won't happen, but I will reserve judgement). There certainly won't be an appetite to give it to the QC yard, since the Tories certainly got stung there in the last election. If anything, the power shift to the west may favour the BC yard if politics becomes an issue.
If it is merit based I think that NS has an ever so slight edge over BC, but just.
It will certainly be one of the more interesting decisions to come out of this government in the next while.

Up We Go
 

Value of HRM development permits still climbing

(September 30, 2011) Halifax – The total value of development permits issued by the Halifax Regional Municipality is up almost $60 million over this time last year, Mayor Peter Kelly announced today.
To the end of September, HRM had issued permits totalling almost $596,000,000 compared to $536,000,000 last year. Mayor Kelly said the commercial and residential sectors continued to be the drivers of HRM’s ongoing development expansion.

At $157,000,000, the total value of permits for commercial enterprises was up 50% over last year’s $102,000,000 while the residential sector was showing a gain of more than 6% with permits worth $393,000,000 issued so far this year compared to $370,000,000 last year.

“We are seeing increasing private-sector confidence in our community,” Mayor Kelly said. “I am optimistic that our local economy will continue to grow and further solidify HRM’s long-held position as the hub of the region.”

Last year, HRM issued development permits totalling almost $780,000,000 and Mayor Kelly said he believed that figure would be surpassed, this year

Press Release by Halifax Regional Municipality

I would not be surprised in the next few years to see building permits surpass (on a regular basis) $1 billion, especially if the ship building contract hits.

From the Halifax Herald...
 

The Herald finally covered HRM's press release:

Value of development permits up
Local developer credits boost to low interest rates

The value of development permits issued by Halifax Regional Municipality so far this year is up, but that is a byproduct of living in the current low-interest environment, a local developer said.

HRM released figures on Friday that showed that permits totalling $596 million had been issued by Sept. 30, up $60 million from the same period last year.

Mayor Peter Kelly said the HRM is on pace to break the $700 million mark and perhaps eclipse last year’s amount of nearly $780 million in permits, the highest total in the last dozen years.

That period has seen "substantive" amounts of development, over $7 billion over the last 10 years, he added.

"It certainly bodes well for the confidence of the development community in the HRM. It’s one that is certainly starting to pay dividends in terms of the outcome of that confidence," he said.

Last year’s high was attained in spite of issuing the lowest amount of development permits during the same timeframe, at 2,603 permits, the lowest in the last dozen years.

That high value to low permit ratio is a result of low interest rates, said developer Danny Chedrawe, president of Westwood Developments.

"That’s the only thing that’s really giving me the sense to do what we’re doing now, because really there’s no real influx of people or economic growth in the province," he said. "I think it’s just more that these record low interest rates have spurred a major push for development and I think it’s short-lived. I don’t think it’s a long-term thing."

The rest of the story is here.

I wouldn't be surprised if they come close or exceed last year's record year. But what I can't wait to see is if the ship building contract comes to Halifax the explosion of growth and development will be staggering. 25,000 jobs over the contract, usually creates 75,000 service jobs (using the typical 1 to 3 ratio that I've seen in most economic forcasts). Now that's just the shipbuilding contract, but that alone will spur other growth too. In terms of population growth per job, the typical ratio for every 1 job the population climbs 2.5 people (family, plus a kid). So if those numbers hold true and assuming no other sectors create any jobs, 100,000 jobs works out to 250,000 more people over 25 years. That would put HRM in around 660,000 over 25 years (or more)...

Those are staggering potential stats and my mind gets giddy thinking about other sectors becoming job generators because of this. This could be the single biggest growth potential for Halifax since it was founded and could do exactly what Peter McKay said: Take the 'no' out of Nova Scotia.

I can see this happening. Maybe even 700,000 in 25 years.

Keep in mind that even this year, before the effect of shipbuilding, the city's population is growing at 1.5% and there's lots of great stuff in the development pipeline. Halifax is probably going to have one of the strongest economies in the country moving forward.

If the city plays its cards right it will see a period of higher growth and significant expansion of infrastructure. Now is the perfect time to build lasting improvements like an ambitious transit system. Those are the sorts of things that will move the city up a notch and turn it into more of a self-sustaining mid-sized centre that offers a great quality of life and attracts lots of talented people.

Right now I think the "worst case" scenario for Halifax is a status quo where NIMBYs rule the day and basically block progress (what this looks like is council deferring votes and calling for more studies to create the illusion of progress). If that were to happen the new growth would be largely suburban and there wouldn't be many lasting benefits. Quality of life could actually go down for most people because there'd be more strain on the same dated infrastructure. The city needs to wake up and be more proactive to make sure this doesn't happen.

Was it really 1.5% already? Wow, that's better than what I was thinking.
If I look at the reaction of some of the councillor's from the announcement, I think some are more ready than others to deal with growth. What will make it more interesting is the revamped smaller council after the next election. I can only hope that some of the more NIMBY-esque councillors (I can think of one from Dartmouth who will remain unnamed) won't be back.

The regional core project will certainly help but I worry that because of this announcement there will be a push to rush the project. This may cause stakeholder groups to feel that they didn't get a fair chance to be consulted and delay implementation, but it's still early and this may not happen. I think if the regional core LUB is done in the 5 year time frame, this should be workable to help take the steam out of the NIMBY's since the goal was to use an HbD type process to make more development as of right. The only question will be how building height will be determined and density levels.

But regardless, I don't think 'status quo' delays or anything like that are going to fly anymore. It will have to be action or else there will be a lot more political problems, than people think. If council think's they were on a hot seat before - this contract may have turned the heat up to white hot.

I could see a few of these things coming together, although it will probably be a bit less dramatic than expected. For example it's easy to imagine more competitiveness in the upcoming election, and the contract might set the tone, biasing public opinion toward more positive and active candidates.

Something like improved development bylaws in 5 years seems like an example of the old pace of change that will not be sufficient. 5 years means 7 years plus some time to iron things out (note how HbD is still kind of broken), then a couple years to actually build stuff. By then plenty of development will have ended up in Hammonds Plains or whatever.

Similarly transit has a pretty narrow window. If they waffle for 5 years trying to decide what to build then the opportunity will mostly be missed (even if they build buses, which don't help much since they just get stuck in traffic -- Halifax needs rapid transit in its own ROW). They could still build LRT but it would need many years of planning and construction followed by years for transit-oriented development nearby in order to meet its full potential.

It is possible. That would be about a 2.2% annual growth rate. Right now the growth rate is about 1.5%.

If the HRM growth rate increases to 1.8% for 25 years then it would be about 640K in 25 years, which would be a decent size city.

700,000 in 25 years would be astounding growth. I mean to visualize an impact this large, your looking at adding the entire population and infrastructure of current day HRM, a feat that took hundreds of years, in just 25. Amazing :cheers:

It astonishes me the amount Halifax is growing now, and how much development is going on in the city. Just a few years ago all this would have been unthinkable. It almost seems Halifax is growing from a quiet, regional city to a large national level city right before our eyes. Its really amazing.

Happy New Year! :fireworks

Anyone want to estimate Halifax's January 1st, 2012 population?

My estimate would be 412,000 maybe 415,000 (plus university students).

July 1st 2012 population estimate Halifax: 413,710

http://i49.tinypic.com/30m8vww.jpg
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a03...051-0054&p2=31

That would put us above Laval, and just bellow Surrey. :notacrook:

We are now firmly the 12th largest metropolitan area in Canada. 10th if you count the golden horseshoe as one.

This is good to see :)

If Halifax's population growth holds steady, the City should reach half a million people within the next decade.

Considering the long-term growth that will occur due to shipbuilding and the fact that Halifax is the only municipality in the Maritimes with a decent foundation of urbanity, our mean annual growth rate may very well increase and we'll hit the half-a-million mark sooner rather than later.

This will certainly be the case if the City's intraprovincial immigration increases, which is reasonable to expect from Cape Breton Island and the South Shore, as well as interprovincial sources of population, such as from PEI and New Brunswick.

In an Atlantic Canadian context, I don't believe it's reasonable to assume large numbers of people from Newfoundland and Labrador will be coming to Halifax to look for work, since that province can now afford to invest in job creation -- and St. John's in particular seems to be doing rather well in growing its market of urban living choices.

So where does this put us in the one measure that counts... The Ikea-O-Meter?:D:runaway:

Even more interesting is if you take into account the population numbers since 2000:
http://i.minus.com/jQxLUjqf6fpHB.png
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a47

So, looking at this year-by-year:
St. John's
-635, +578, +813, +1,406, +95, +431, +1,778, +2,671, +3,080, +3,538, +3,194, +3,026

Halifax
+3,274, +5,078, +3,570, +2,615, +1,369, +2,931, +3,372, +4,892, +5,119, +5,972, +5,523, +4,408

Moncton
+1,362, +1,349, +1,441, +1,493, +1,015, +1,324, +1,524, +1,763, +2,621, +2,493, +2,599, +2,280

Saint John
-243, -263, -103, -91, -453, -494, +547, +751, +1,088, +580, +573, +339


2000-2012:
St. John's__+19,544 (+9.75%)
Halifax ____+47,763 (+11.55%)
Moncton___+21,304 (+14.90%)
Saint John__+2,211 (+1.72%)

Not sure how right my percentages are. :P