But most, in some form, are still coming, says Russ Valone of Marketpointe Realty Advisors. “To dig a hole might be a little optimistic right now,” Valone says. “But the demand is going to return.”


Let's hope. Thanks for posting that article! :)

The good thing is that Downtown's potential has been realized and even in this downturn the developers are still sticking around and converting the projects into mixed-use which I believe is the best kind of pro-urbanity project.

In comparison, the downtowns in Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Atlanta, etc. are still trying to revitalize their central cores into true urban centers.

Houston isn't doing so well. :)

I'm just happy to see that a lot of the projects we thought were dead aren't so dead after all. :)

This article is a little too rosy in my opinion. As someone who deals with these types of projects on a daily basis (along with the equity and debt sources who are taking back some of these sites), I can tell you that there is NO money available for new high rise projects in Southern California right now.

Revenues don't come close to the costs right now. You can't get anything underwritten.

Here is a link to a recent article in the OC Register regarding the situation up there:

http://www.ocregister.com/news/high-...-orange-county

Since you are in the industry, let me ask your opinion on hotels : All the statistics I have read show San Diego as a hotel market is very hot right now and new hotels are profitable. Do you think these projects can be profitable by moving forward either as partial or full hotels?

If there is NO money, how is the Hanover Company breaking ground on Strata right now?
I think you are right that unless you are a developer with very deep pockets (Bosa, Related Cos, JMI), you will not get funding. But lending today is just the same as lending yesterday. It's all predicated on risk. If the bank knows that they will be paid back (The developer has liquididty to repay), then they will lend the money.

The huge issue right now are the ridiculous asking price by landowners. Land brokers artificially inflated the land prices by valuing every parcel with a highest and best use as a 5 star luxury condo or hotel, without entitlement attached to it. They were asking for prices as if the land was already entitled as a Richard Meier designed condo tower. Now that land costs are coming down, perhaps.

I can't believe articles like the one posted above continue to dwell on the condo market downtown but they never talk about infrastructure and civic projects!

Any place that is distinct, iconic, and has qualities that set it apart as a desireable location will always find a market and bounce back from housing slumps. I think San Diego's bayfront downtown location makes it one of these places, kind of like SF but not as developed yet.

In my opinion, it is not a housing slump that will ruin downtown's future success - - it is a lack of infrastructure and civic spaces. We have hit a plateau where we have a sizeable downtown population and it simply can't grow any larger without addressing transporation and civic needs. Building highrise after highrise will only attract a certain amount of people until the infrastructure cuts off the development if it's a hassel to commute to and from and there is a shortage of civic ammenities.

I know there is a shortage of funds right now across the board - - private and public -- but I really think exploring more taxes would be worthwhile as SD pays far fewer than other major cities. Of course, the conservatives here are very anti-tax, so it's not likely to happen.

I'm just tired of hearing about the housing crisis every minute when we have what is in my opinion a more pressing problem that ISN'T going to bounce back - an infrastructure crisis

I don't deal with hotels but it would seem to me that downtown San Diego is approaching saturation.

Once the 2 new Marriots on 5th are completed along with the 1200 room Hilton and the 420 room Hard Rock, I think the market will have enough rooms for a while.

I understand that Hanover paid $22 million for the site. They are building luxury for rent apartments. I don't know who is providing the construction loan. It seems to me that you could probably find a lot of luxury condos for rent right now in downtown for $3 psf. I don't know who their target renter is. I guess we will see how that goes.

When they paid $22 million for the site, is that "as is"? Does it include soil remediation? You know like condo sellers, it is in land brokers best interest to have an appearance of "High Dollar", and a lot of times the seller will pay for a lot of site prepping. I'd be willing to bet that number includes money for demolition, abatement, and soil clean up, and the site is delivered to Hanover "clean". That site also already had entitlements in place.

Even if you can pass civic taxes, the city ends up siphoning them off and mismanaging the funds, like they did with the TOT tax. See article:

Hotel Self-Assessment Plan Clears First Hurdle


A plan that could raise as much as $30 million for tourism funding has apparently garnered enough support to get it rolling by January.

David Peckinpaugh, president and chief executive officer of the San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau, said Oct. 3 that he’s learned that 54 percent of hotels within the city limits recently approved a measure that would impose a 2 percent assessment on nightly room rates.

According to state law, the creation of a marketing district with the authority to assess fees, such as the tourism marketing district plan floated more than two years ago, needs a vote of 50 percent of the businesses that would be affected. It must then have the blessing of a city or county governing body.
The approval process is the first step toward triggering the vote.

Under the proposal, ConVis would receive 50 percent of the revenue collected, while the San Diego North Convention & Visitors Bureau would receive 10 percent and the remainder would be split among several other organizations, including the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl, which are currently receiving hotel room tax funds.

Peckinpaugh says he expected that the City Council would review the matter in mid-October, after which the hotels would vote to accept or reject the plan. The hotels’ votes would be weighted on the basis of how much they contributed in room tax revenue, and only hotels with 70 or more rooms would be assessed.

Members of the San Diego Lodging Industry Association and the San Diego County Hotel-Motel Association are backers of the proposal.

Based on average occupancy and room rates at the city’s hotels, it’s anticipated that the revenue collection would be from $25 million to $30 million in the first year and could increase annually.

The city’s 10.5 percent hotel room tax collection, which amounted to $151 million in the fiscal year that ended in June, would stay in place, but speculation is that City Hall would eventually keep the lion’s share, if not all, of those tax funds.

For fiscal 2008, the city had projected that the room tax revenue collection will be $164 million. That tax was originally established in the 1960s to fund tourism marketing, but City Hall has siphoned more and more of it for its general fund needs through the years.

For fiscal 2008, which began in July, ConVis has a budget of $14.6 million, of which $8.8 million comes from the city in the form of a subsidy via the room tax collection. The remainder is derived from private sources, primarily dues.

Since fiscal 2004, the bureau has seen its total subsidy slashed by 37 percent.

This to me is disgusting! Those are EASY tax dollars for San Diegan's to use for infrastructure (roads, sewers, iconic civic centers, etc)... And the visitor industry is taking advantage of the fact that TOT tax is so low in San Diego compared to our competitor cities that they can do this WITHOUT hurting occupany and use the funds to market themselves!

San Diegas should be ashamed at this grab bag. There have been efforts to raise the TOT in San Diego, but they have been defeated because big hotel interests have fought and won. Now look what they figured out how to do and without a vote of the people and they keep the money.

Someone do some math and figure out what 2% TOT is over 5 years... It think we are talking way over $150 million dollars. That is a lot of money. A lot of money for 'marketing'...

You know, San Diego should grow up and start collecting some taxes. Go to Phoenix and rent a car... The taxes are as much as the car... Lots of examples of this all over the country. And let's get responsible leadership to invest the taxes to make our city liveable again.

And, hey, maybe single family houses should pay for trash pick-up.

I also agree that the best ingrediants to increase values is quality of life. CCDC has a ton of property tax increment in its vault and I have yet to see any signficant public improvement come of it in the last couple of years. That harbor drive bridge keeps getting delayed, the 'quiet zone' is a joke, the North Embarcardero is still an asphault parking lot, and the new Central Library keep waiting for a donor.

Spend and invest it before the City Council figures out how to take it!!

What are you talking about??? The poroblem is that the TOT is SUPOSED to go back into tourism and it doesn't. The city keeps it for other purposes (overhead for Mike Aguirre's press conferences). The reason why the hotel industry did not want to raise TOT tax is that the city would spend it on things other than tourism. What the hotels have done is just like what we have in downtown. Create an assesment district to fund marketting for themselves. NO PROBLEM HERE. Its the only way you can actually get things done without the city wasting it away.

Wtf Is Tot??!!

Transient Occupancy Tax (Hotel Tax)

Check your hotel bill the next time you visit a big city. Most cities have substantial hotel taxes. San Francisco is about 14%.

Well that was a nice treat! :tup:

Go Bolts!

word

now if only the padres were in the rockies place...:(

As long as its not going to be a Bristol Farms. There is one that is right by where I live in LA during the week, and they make Whole Foods prices "discount". That place is a rip off. A bowl of cut pineaples there is $11!!! The same bowl at Trader Joes is only $4.

Knowing our luck, it will probably be some ridiculously expensive market that will force everyone that lives there to get in their cars and drive to Trader Joes.