Downtown Toronto’s pace of population growth triples, outpacing suburbs’ ...
 

Downtown Toronto’s pace of population growth triples, outpacing suburbs’ as Echo Boomers flock towards urban centre: report


Jan 22, 2013

By Megan O'Toole

Read More: http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/01...centre-report/




http://nationalpostnews.files.wordpr...g?w=320&h=2595

Take home message: If you own one of those tiny 600 sq ft. condos built downtown in the past 10 years, sell it now.

Downsizing baby boomers are not going to be looking at tiny condos in a busy downtown. And as the article mentions, once Echo Boomers start pairing off and pooping out babies, they're going to be looking for more space.

Houses and large downtown condos will continue to be in demand for those who can afford them. Tiny bachelors and one-bedrooms, however, will have a smaller replacement population of young singles to fill them in the next decade.

Once the echo boomers move out, the millenniums will be willing to pick up their old units..

I really hate how people think that we should be building as many units downtown as we were 15 years ago. People are moving downtown from the suburbs, because suburban housing is too expensive. (The greenbelt is restricting sprawl) it gets to the point where the only people who are buying houses is the "family" demographic, while if you are in a house of one or two people, you are going to be moving it a condo. People only have kids in their house for about 25 years of their lives, but live 60+ years as homeowners / renters. Up until now, you would have spent about 55 of that in a house, but now, it is probably closer to 35. That is a substantial market for smaller condos.

Oh yeah baby! Toronto Market Crash! We've been waiting a long time for this!

And it doesn't have to be in the immediate downtown either where the rabbit hutches are being built. Plenty of already existing houses as well as new townhouses and duplexes popping up.

But there are fewer millennials than echo boomers. Will there be enough to fill all the empty units?

There's the immigrant factor as well.

Also people in roommate situations who want their own place.

I'm not sure I follow, so baby boomers who are looking to downsize don't want to downsize?

I agree that baby boomers want more than a bachelor pad, and yes a 600 sq ft room isn't big enough, but I think the 800-1000 sq ft range is a comfort zone for single retirees or couples that don't have kids.

This will be an issue eventually whether for condos or houses in the suburbs.

No, they'll downsize but they'll want to live in a more tranquil environment than downtown Toronto. Hopefully they'll be smart enough to pick walkable areas since they'll eventually be unable to drive. I can see nearby retirement towns like Peterborough, Barrie, Dundas, Cobourg, etc. becoming more popular.

True, but the echo boomers are mostly in their 20s now, so a lot are single or in casual relationships and can live by themselves in tiny condos. Many of those condos are too cramped for a couple, let alone a couple with kids. When echo boomers hit their 30s many of them will want to start families. I think most will still want to live in the city, but they won't be able to afford downtown houses with the amount of space they'll want. They're going to have to start building 3-bedroom condos to keep families downtown, and they haven't started yet...

Even though % Growth for just downtown is outpacing the entirety of the suburbs, the net increase in population downtown was only about 50,000 from 2006 to 2011 compared to around 450,000 for the GTA as a whole, and most of the rest of the growth was suburban greenfields. There are plenty of suburban ridings that grew by more than 16.2%.

Oakridges-Markham: 35.0%
Halton: 33.9% (North Oakville and Milton)
Vaughan: 27.1%
Bramalea-Gore-Malton: 25.8%
Brampton West: 19.8%
Ajax-Pickering: 17.1%

There are a lot of people expecting the market in Canada to crash....or at least fizzle out. I hope not but you have to wonder how long the country can sustain this boom cycle...

Downtown Toronto is growing by about 6% per annum. I believe I've posted this picture here before:

http://i1292.photobucket.com/albums/...ps0f1a4dfa.jpg

That's an incredible rate of growth for such a large area (about 5 square miles) that already (as of 2006) was densely populated to begin with.

I noticed that map the last time you posted it and found it very interesting, but what is the land area? Looks to be about 3.6 km x 3.6 km or about 13 sq km. Based on that estimation, we arrive at a population density of roughly 13,466 people/sq km in the downtown.

For the sake of comparison, Manhattan has 1,601,948 people on 59 sq km for a population density of 27,151 people/sq km. As one can see, downtown Toronto would need to double its population to achieve Manhattan density albeit on an area one quarter the size. Quite a jump, but at the rate the downtown is growing we might be seeing density above 20,000 before the decade is out.

I think Manhattan is a higher proportion residential than the very downtown core of Toronto isn't it? Lots of office buildings where no one lives (at least officially).

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...canada/272499/

Seems to me opinions on Canada's real estate market from outside the country are more credible. Most people reporting from within Canada have a huge stake in one outcome or another, and are therefore extremely biased.

I don't think so. Many people from outside the country seem to be just taking an example from elsewhere and superimposing it 1:1 without really knowing or caring about the specifics and intricacies.