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wave46 May 26, 2020 3:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 8932767)
The exact same thing was done by our Competition bureau here in Canada, or did you not read the report a few months ago?

I still don't agree with the Bureau's conclusions and decision to let AC take over Transat.

The level of competition - especially in Quebec - has been very much stifled with this takeover. Effectively, Montreal is now an AC town. Sure, there's Sunwing and international carriers, but the level of competition on many European summer routes is completely gone.

I mean, AC's shareholders might cheer and I've no personal stake in airfare pricing for the Quebec market, but to have two profitable entities merge and hold a large majority of that market smacks of corporatism run rampant.

p_xavier May 26, 2020 4:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wave46 (Post 8932811)
I still don't agree with the Bureau's conclusions and decision to let AC take over Transat.

The level of competition - especially in Quebec - has been very much stifled with this takeover. Effectively, Montreal is now an AC town. Sure, there's Sunwing and international carriers, but the level of competition on many European summer routes is completely gone.

I mean, AC's shareholders might cheer and I've no personal stake in airfare pricing for the Quebec market, but to have two profitable entities merge and hold a large majority of that market smacks of corporatism run rampant.

Transat won't survive COVID. So better that it's AC. Transat has been losing money for years. Yes to competition but when you subsidize travel it's in nobody's interest in the long term. Plus AC was to make YUL a bigger hub, adding destinations.

thenoflyzone May 26, 2020 4:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wave46 (Post 8932811)
I still don't agree with the Bureau's conclusions and decision to let AC take over Transat.

The Bureau doesn't - and didn't- make that decision/conclusion. It simply reports its findings to the Minister of Transport, which, in turn, makes the decision. What the Competition Bureau did agree on, is to work with the airlines so they can address some of the concerns raised in the report, and report back to the Minister.

https://www.competitionbureau.gc.ca/...eng/04522.html

Read the last section of the report, which are the findings:

Quote:

8. Findings regarding lessening and prevention of competition

The Commissioner of Competition has conducted an assessment of the Proposed Transaction between Air Canada and Transat, in order to report to the Minister and the Parties on any concerns regarding a potential prevention or lessening of competition as contemplated by subsection 53.2(2) of the CTA.

Based upon analysis of facts and information prior to the COVID‑19 pandemic, the Commissioner has determined that the Proposed Transaction is likely to result in substantial anti‑competitive effects through the elimination of rivalry between Air Canada and Transat in the areas of overlap between their networks. In particular, the Proposed Transaction is likely to result in the following if it proceeds in its current contemplated form:

a substantial lessening or prevention of competition in the provision of air passenger services or vacation packages on 83 routes between Canada and Europe, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, Florida and South America;
a merger of the only two carriers offering non‑stop service on 22 of these 83 routes; and
a significant reduction in travel by Canadians in the overlap markets
The Bureau has attempted to fully explain the basis for its concerns in the foregoing report, while taking into account the confidentiality provisions in the Competition Act, and the Commissioner's mandate under the CTA. The Commissioner's concerns are the result of an assessment consistent with that conducted when applying section 92 of the Competition Act to transportation undertakings.

The Parties have indicated a willingness to work with the Commissioner to try to resolve the competition concerns and may propose certain measures they are prepared to undertake to address these concerns pursuant to subsection 53.2(5) of the CTA. In addition to providing his report, the Commissioner will engage with the Parties regarding undertakings offered and shall provide the Minister with his assessment of the adequacy of any such undertakings to address competition concerns, pursuant to subsection 53.2(6) of the CTA.

Tg11 May 26, 2020 4:41 PM

I know other airlines especially here in Canada that will likely not survive COVID and that is KLM, Alitalia, etc and they are foreign airlines too

casper May 26, 2020 4:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tg11 (Post 8932899)
I know other airlines especially here in Canada that will likely not survive COVID and that is KLM, Alitalia, etc and they are foreign airlines too

Well KLM/Air France are basically the same company and they are substantial airline group. I would expect them to service. They may cut some less profitable routes.

Alitalia has been close to bankruptcy for a very long time.

Tg11 May 26, 2020 4:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 8932914)
Well KLM/Air France are basically the same company and they are substantial airline group. I would expect them to service. They may cut some less profitable routes.

Alitalia has been close to bankruptcy for a very long time.


Which is why I can see the bankruptcy happening because of COVID

wave46 May 26, 2020 5:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 8932885)
The Bureau doesn't - and didn't- make that decision/conclusion. It simply reports its findings to the Minister of Transport, which, in turn, makes the decision. What the Competition Bureau did agree on, is to work with the airlines so they can address some of the concerns raised in the report, and report back to the Minister.

I stand corrected re: who makes the decision.

Still, I don't agree with it. My understanding is that Air Transat was profitable prior to COVID-19 and not in imminent danger of collapse. I suspect this was a move on AC's part to prevent Onex (and Westjet) from acquiring it.

I also wonder what mitigation measures will be proposed.

But, COVID has completely upended the game, so I doubt anybody knows what's going on for the future right now.

Dominion301 May 26, 2020 5:16 PM

Porter's re-launch delayed another month to 29JUL20

https://www.skiesmag.com/press-relea...ce-to-july-29/

hollywoodcory May 26, 2020 9:21 PM

YYC finally getting some interesting activity these past few days with a AirX 343 twice for a fuel stop and a MasAir from MEX. We've been drained of anything to spot other than parked WS 737s, the occasional 787 and DL/AA E75s. :haha:

Both YEG and even YWG have almost four times the amount of interesting traffic in the past month.

lubicon May 26, 2020 9:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 8932914)
Well KLM/Air France are basically the same company and they are substantial airline group. I would expect them to service. They may cut some less profitable routes.

Alitalia has been close to bankruptcy for a very long time.

Alitalia is being nationalized again so likely will not disappear.

https://airlinegeeks.com/2020/03/17/...izes-alitalia/

LO 044 May 26, 2020 10:05 PM

Shouldn't AC be thrilled by this news? I guess the question is do they still owe Air Transat that penalty IF the federal government says no to the proposed merger? If that's the case, by bye Air Transat. Perhaps AC contacted the Europeans to build their case for the Transportation minister to not approve the deal lol.

As for Alitalia, it is the "best run" airline in the world lol. It knows it's stupid government will bail them out for eternity. Has Alitalia not been bankrupt for 20 years?

YYCguys May 27, 2020 3:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LO 044 (Post 8933313)
Shouldn't AC be thrilled by this news? I guess the question is do they still owe Air Transat that penalty IF the federal government says no to the proposed merger? If that's the case, by bye Air Transat. Perhaps AC contacted the Europeans to build their case for the Transportation minister to not approve the deal lol.

Oh that’s dirty tactics if it was all a set up just to get rid of the competition!

nname May 27, 2020 4:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YYCguys (Post 8933589)
Oh that’s dirty tactics if it was all a set up just to get rid of the competition!

If they don't buy it, then WestJet might go for it. What would you do if you're AC?

YYCguys May 27, 2020 5:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 8933616)
If they don't buy it, then WestJet might go for it. What would you do if you're AC?

Oh I don’t think westjet is in the position to be acquiring an airline at the moment.

whatnext May 27, 2020 5:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 8933616)
If they don't buy it, then WestJet might go for it. What would you do if you're AC?

Gerry didn’t get rich by throwing money into a bottomless pit. Weather is going to be bleeding money, the last thing he needs is to acquire another sick company in travel.

casper May 27, 2020 7:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YYCguys (Post 8933631)
Oh I don’t think westjet is in the position to be acquiring an airline at the moment.

Not WestJet, but WestJets owner. It would be a good fit.

WestJet has never figured out how to properly serve Montreal or the rest of Quebec.

An idea case would be to see WestJet and AirTransat have the same parent company but operate as two separate brands. They can codeshare on all flights and potentially drive some back office cost saving.

WestJet focus stays on rebuilding its operations. AirTransat shrinks down to being focused on serving the Montreal market.

thenoflyzone May 27, 2020 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 8933681)
Not WestJet, but WestJets owner. It would be a good fit.

Pretty sure Onex is regretting their move to buy an airline right about now.....No way in hell will they invest in another.

What Buffett did a few weeks ago should tell you plenty about investing in an airline right about now.

I don't think AC will go ahead with the TS merger either, but not because the government wont approve it. They will. They would be foolish not too. AC will find another way to wiggle itself out of the deal. They can't afford to take on more planes/employees at the moment when the flying public has all but disappeared.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LO 044 (Post 8933313)
If that's the case, by bye Air Transat.

I don't think Francois Legault, if anyone, will let TS tank. The Quebec government made sure BBD survived a few years ago. The'll make sure TS does as well. It might not be as big as it is today, but it'll be here, one way or another.

Basically, even if the deal doesn't happen, federal and provincial governments will most likely help out each and every major airline in this country to ensure their survival. In a weird way, COVID might ensure the TS name lives on.

p_xavier May 27, 2020 12:43 PM

So is AC flying to NRT from YUL or not this Summer? I can't find dates.

wave46 May 27, 2020 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 8933743)
I don't think AC will go ahead with the TS merger either, but not because the government wont approve it. They will. They would be foolish not too. AC will find another way to wiggle itself out of the deal. They can't afford to take on more planes/employees at the moment when the flying public has all but disappeared.

However, their fleet strategy seems to indicate that they'll keep Air Transat.

They've permanently retired their 767s from Rouge, which ends their transatlantic operations. Unless they are ceding that market to Transat (unlikely IMO), you'd think they'd want to get back there in a few years.

Keeping AT would allow them a foothold there.

casper May 27, 2020 2:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wave46 (Post 8933755)
However, their fleet strategy seems to indicate that they'll keep Air Transat.

They've permanently retired their 767s from Rouge, which ends their transatlantic operations. Unless they are ceding that market to Transat (unlikely IMO), you'd think they'd want to get back there in a few years.

Keeping AT would allow them a foothold there.

Regardless of what happens with AT, I think Rouge will become a distant memory. All the Rouge aircraft are grounded, all the employees have either been let go or moved back to mainline airline. AC has some former Singapore/TAP Air Portugal A330 that have joined the fleet or are on their way in.


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