America's population will peak at 364 million in 42 years
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dai...inking-10.html
This goes along with the prediction of the world topping out at 9.7 billion. Although other studies actually claim 8.7 billion, which assumes Africa won’t continue to grow at its current pace long term. The 9.7 billion number does have Africa constituting almost half of humanity by 2100. I’m assuming that most of the US growth, which has been projected to hit almost half a billion is somewhat anemic in this projection, will be in the South. Esp. Florida and Texas. |
The US natural growth has dropped from 1.9 million to 900,000 in merely 13 years. The number of births keeps falling quickly (it's now at 3.7 million) while deaths is always increasing. By 2030, when baby boomers will start dying off, the US will have over 4 million deaths yearly to run a negative natural growth.
Immigration is now a very toxic political issue, and the current 1 million/year will be enough to keep population stagnant only. Demographics are deteriorating much quicker than expected and even those 364 million might become a bit too ambitious. |
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Nigeria is a demographic time bomb.
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The world has rarely been without war, famine or other threats, yet people, like myself, continue to have children. Despite the dark clouds of overpopulation, resource shortages, climate change, and rising assholism, there are also reasons to hope that the future will be brighter for many people.
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Predicting only means so much,
Wikipedia projects the US to have over 400 million by that point, not sure which is more accurate :shrug: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projec...ulation_growth |
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This will depress even further the number of births, anticipating the negative natural growth in 15-20 years. I wouldn't be surprised if it happens before 2030, something imaginable few years ago. And the 2030's-2050's will be dramatic as it will be the decades baby-boomers will die at a rate of 4 million/year. Much above the 3.7 million births of today and those will be much lower in the future as the overall population ages. Quote:
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And where is Egypt going to put another 100 million people? Will the Nile even reach the Mediterranean? |
How would Nigeria's population density compare to Bangladesh's?
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If things keep evolving this way, I don't think they will add another 100 million in the next 80 years. Quote:
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I'm highly dubious of population estimates since there is political pressure to inflate them (for things like pensions, etc.).
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Coincidentally, today BBC News had this article in the front page:
Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century |
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I came here to post just that! The key takeaway here being that the global population is projected to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, and decline to 8.8 billion by 2100 (a net gain of only 1 billion from today). Most countries will lose population except for those in Africa. But even there the growth is going to taper off as they urbanize and develop, with the resultant drop in fertility rates. https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cp...020_640-nc.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cp...tion640-nc.png |
We're gonna have a population bomb, all right. We'll eventually have global population decline, with a few rich nations sucking up the remaining people.
If Islam and fundamentalist Christianity just slightly modernize, knock a billion or two off the estimates. Nigeria is booming because you have Muslims and fundamentalist Christians trying to out-reproduce each other. |
I thought it was going to reach 400 million by than.
The tides have turned. Well, honestly, in 42 years, if this climate change stuff isn't resolved, there will be a lot of peaking, and than a horrific trough for several places. Interestingly enough... many of the places that will see intense growth of an unparalleled nature, will also be the worse off. Lots of death and suffering to come, so 42 years from now might suck! Be glad were enjoying now. Nigeria will be a disaster. Some areas will be too hot for people to live the way things are going. So... with that said, maybe a lower population is ideal! |
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