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thenoflyzone Mar 22, 2022 2:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46 (Post 9574802)
So, who wants to take bets when the 737 MAX fleet leaves?

I give it a decade at most.

The sooner the better. Sadly, I don’t think that’s what will happen.

These 26 XLRs are a replacement for the 25 Rouge 767s that left. You’re going to see them on longer range missions that the MAX can’t do.

Still 8 or so MAXs left to join the fleet. These will replace the older A320s. So both narrowbodies, Airbus and Boeing, will stay with AC for a while I think.

So I’ll take your bet….;)

thewave46 Mar 22, 2022 2:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9574916)
The sooner the better. Sadly, I don’t think that’s what will happen.

These 26 XLRs are a replacement for the 25 Rouge 767s that left. You’re going to see them on longer range missions that the MAX can’t do.

Still 8 or so MAXs left to join the fleet. These will replace the older A320s. So both narrowbodies, Airbus and Boeing, will stay with AC for a while I think.

So I’ll take your bet….;)

We shall see. I wonder if the MAX ends up at Rouge and AC mainline goes back to the A320neo.

You think AC is going to put the XLR on Rouge? Or just take over the routes that Rouge used to do, but on mainline?

Anyway, exciting times for secondary destinations to Europe from YYZ and YUL.

casper Mar 22, 2022 2:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46 (Post 9574955)
We shall see. I wonder if the MAX ends up at Rouge and AC mainline goes back to the A320neo.

You think AC is going to put the XLR on Rouge? Or just take over the routes that Rouge used to do, but on mainline?

Anyway, exciting times for secondary destinations to Europe from YYZ and YUL.

I think what is critical is AC announced that the front cabin will have lie-flat seats. No premium economy seats. That indicated it is going to be mainline service. These birds will be similar to what TAP Air Portugal is operating between Canada and Lisbon.

They may also use these on flights from YVR, YYC and LAX to YYZ/YUL. They currently charge a premium for being on a 787, A330 or 777 when in a lie-flat business seat.

Alexcaban Mar 22, 2022 2:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46 (Post 9574802)
So, who wants to take bets when the 737 MAX fleet leaves?

I give it a decade at most.

One word:

Rouge

thenoflyzone Mar 22, 2022 7:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46 (Post 9574955)
We shall see. I wonder if the MAX ends up at Rouge and AC mainline goes back to the A320neo.

Yes, by the looks of it, the Max is now in an ideal spot to move to Rouge, and for AC mainline to become all airbus narrowbody with the A220 and A321.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46 (Post 9574955)
You think AC is going to put the XLR on Rouge? Or just take over the routes that Rouge used to do, but on mainline?

The XLR is staying with mainline. Their announced seating configuration makes sure of that. They will takeover AC rouge routes, while staying at mainline.

This is what AC is doing now with the A330/787s anyways. ATH, BCN, VCE, NCE, FCO, LIS, etc. These were all Rouge routes pre-pandemic, but are now operated by mainline.

The "23% lower fuel burn per seat" they mention is in direct comparison to the 767. So the cost advantage is enough to keep these planes at mainline.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46 (Post 9574955)
Anyway, exciting times for secondary destinations to Europe from YYZ and YUL.

Not just YYZ/YUL, but an exciting time for people in YOW, YQB, YHZ. If YOW-LHR returns, it's almost a guarantee it will eventually be a XLR route. Same with YQB-CDG, if it ever happens.

This is also good news for the west coast. YEG-LHR is easily within reach of the XLR. This plane opens up a whole set of new long haul routes that weren't (at least in AC's eyes) financially viable, or weren't a priority, until now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 9574971)
These birds will be similar to what TAP Air Portugal is operating between Canada and Lisbon.

Yes. At the end of the day, we have to remember that the XLR is a niche aircraft. According to market studies done by certain leasing companies, the market for the XLR is only around 400-500 planes. AC was always a part of that niche, and so was TAP.

Denscity Mar 22, 2022 7:46 PM

Well maybe foe Edmonton but not the West Coast.

thenoflyzone Mar 22, 2022 8:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Denscity (Post 9575465)
Well maybe foe Edmonton but not the West Coast.

why not? YVR/YYC-UK/Ireland is well within range. 26 XLRs is a lot of frames. Therefore a lot of routes can be flown.

http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=yvr&R=470...X=720x360&PM=*

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=yyc&R=4...c&MS=wls&DU=mi

hehehe Mar 22, 2022 9:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9575546)
why not? YVR/YYC-UK/Ireland is well within range. 26 XLRs is a lot of frames. Therefore a lot of routes can be flown.

http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=yvr&R=470...X=720x360&PM=*

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=yyc&R=4...c&MS=wls&DU=mi

I wonder if AC would ever take a stab at seasonal YYC-DUB or GLA or something just to stick it to WS. They'd probably focus on YVR though.

Denscity Mar 22, 2022 9:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9575546)
why not? YVR/YYC-UK/Ireland is well within range. 26 XLRs is a lot of frames. Therefore a lot of routes can be flown.

http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=yvr&R=470...X=720x360&PM=*

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=yyc&R=4...c&MS=wls&DU=mi

Ah you never mentioned YVR so wondered if they had the range required.

casper Mar 22, 2022 9:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Denscity (Post 9575598)
Ah you never mentioned YVR so wondered if they had the range required.

From Vancouver it looks like the UK, Ireland, Northern France and Northern Spain are all within range.

What is also interesting is Japan is also within range. We may have to wait until Russia collapses and AC is allowed to overfly. Topic for a different threat, but that should happen in any case before AC takes delivery of these aircraft.
Perhaps even Mongolia.

All of central America and parts of South America are also within range.

nname Mar 22, 2022 9:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 9575633)
From Vancouver it looks like the UK, Ireland, Northern France and Northern Spain are all within range.

What is also interesting is Japan is also within range. We may have to wait until Russia collapses and AC is allowed to overfly. Topic for a different threat, but that should happen in any case before AC takes delivery of these aircraft.
Perhaps even Mongolia.

All of central America and parts of South America are also within range.

YVR to CTS (Sapporo), MAN, DUB, OSL, BOG are definitely doable... CDG, AMS, KIX could be a stretch, LIM probably not, ULN, PUS, CJU definitely not (especially if you avoid Russian airspace).

hehehe Mar 23, 2022 12:40 AM

I have a friend stuck in Cancun due to some sort of a protest that blocked roads. AC is saying they can't rebook them till next week but can't AC book them on a CUN-DEN-YVR flight operated by UA but also sold by AC for example?

casper Mar 23, 2022 12:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hehehe (Post 9575857)
I have a friend stuck in Cancun due to some sort of a protest that blocked roads. AC is saying they can't rebook them till next week but can't AC book them on a CUN-DEN-YVR flight operated by UA but also sold by AC for example?

They can if there is space. If they want to they can book them on another carrier that is not star alliance like Alaska, Delta or America. The issue is will they. They will always try to keep the passanger on their own aircraft when possible.

The airport staff can be a bit of a crap shoot. Some will have training to do this others not. Call center and app may be more flexible.

hemustbeaboss Mar 23, 2022 1:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewave46 (Post 9574802)
So, who wants to take bets when the 737 MAX fleet leaves?

I give it a decade at most.

I believe it will be much shorter than that

hehehe Mar 23, 2022 1:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 9575874)
They can if there is space. If they want to they can book them on another carrier that is not star alliance like Alaska, Delta or America. The issue is will they. They will always try to keep the passanger on their own aircraft when possible.

The airport staff can be a bit of a crap shoot. Some will have training to do this others not. Call center and app may be more flexible.

Seems like you're right. AC staff telling them they can't book passengers on codeshare flights lol but the UA desk is closed.

nname Mar 23, 2022 4:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hehehe (Post 9575857)
I have a friend stuck in Cancun due to some sort of a protest that blocked roads. AC is saying they can't rebook them till next week but can't AC book them on a CUN-DEN-YVR flight operated by UA but also sold by AC for example?

Seems like YVR-CUN is in high demand. The flight was operated with 77L for the past couple of weeks, but the return flight looks all full in economy...

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 9575874)
They can if there is space. If they want to they can book them on another carrier that is not star alliance like Alaska, Delta or America. The issue is will they. They will always try to keep the passanger on their own aircraft when possible.

The airport staff can be a bit of a crap shoot. Some will have training to do this others not. Call center and app may be more flexible.

What about CUN-YYZ-YVR or CUN-YUL-YVR? Looks like there's more availability this week on those two flights. CUN-YYC looks pretty full until next week too.

hehehe Mar 23, 2022 4:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 9576023)
Seems like YVR-CUN is in high demand. The flight was operated with 77L for the past couple of weeks, but the return flight looks all full in economy...



What about CUN-YYZ-YVR or CUN-YUL-YVR? Looks like there's more availability this week on those two flights. CUN-YYC looks pretty full until next week too.

This was helpful, thank you!

thenoflyzone Mar 23, 2022 5:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hemustbeaboss (Post 9575875)
I believe it will be much shorter than that

The MAX-8 isn’t going anywhere.

It’s almost 20 tonnes lighter than the A321XLR, carries just a dozen less passengers, and can fly any mission in North America with a much lower cost than the XLR.

AC already canceled their 11 orders for Max 9s back in 2020, because they knew they were headed towards more A321ceos and eventually the A321XLR.

The Max 8 fills another role. It does that role well and isn’t going anywhere, except for maybe Rouge. That’s it. It’s gonna wear the Maple Leaf for 15-20 more years, minimum.

caribb Mar 23, 2022 3:44 PM

The XLR’s have a range of 8700 km but what is the realistic operational range of these A321’s. They can easily fly YUL-DKR but could they theoretically do YUL-ABJ or YYZ-ACC? I see them as more of a right size for West Africa than a widebody. Not saying this is going to happen or need to happen but just curious if it could be used on these routes.

hehehe Mar 23, 2022 5:47 PM

https://centreforaviation.com/analys...campaign=Mar22
Interesting article with nice graphs as well.


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