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Airboy Nov 9, 2020 5:00 PM

YVR still has limited options for service if you have lay over. Westjet side has a bar and 2 fast foods. the AC side has a bar, 4 fast options and 2 coffee shops. I did notice that the Prestige Lounge was getting a deep clean so that may mean they are getting ready to open. Though BC went into a new covid restriction Saturday night I don't think they we change what is available.

AC Business class service gets some food and drinks.

If you have a long lay over (like I had, 5 hours). as much as I wanted to leave the terminal for a while, the stress you have if you leave and com back with an elevated temp, they will not let you will not get back on board. So I stay in the terminal.

Temp tests are different. Temp scanner in YEG. Temp Gun in YXT and I believe they were using a Gun at YVR but the scanner was off to the side when I walked by.

thenoflyzone Nov 9, 2020 10:22 PM

Interesting developments over at AC.

During their Q3 earnings call, they announced aircraft order deferrals and cancellations. The cancellations involve 10 Max 8s and 12 A220s.

They will also convert some B767s to full freighters, pending an agreement with the pilots first (as it involves a lot of night time flying).

https://www.aircanada.com/content/da...q3_release.pdf

https://simpleflying.com/air-canada-...ed-freighters/

Q3 management discussion and analysis at the following link:

https://www.aircanada.com/content/da...020_MDA_q3.pdf

Highlights

Q3 Passenger revenue : $507 million ($316 million domestic, $111 million over the Atlantic, $30 million Pacific, $28 million US transborder, $22 million other)
Q3 Cargo revenue : $216 million (half of it across the Atlantic)
Q3 Operating Income: -$785 million

Q3 Revenue passengers carried : 1.728 million (-88%)

Q3 Passenger load factor: 42.3%

It's gonna be a rough Q4.

hollywoodcory Nov 10, 2020 7:01 PM

Also hearing Air Canada could cut another 95 domestic, Transborder and International routes too, including 9 additional domestic stations being closed. They're waiting to see how discussions with the government go.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29...-under-threat/

Dominion301 Nov 11, 2020 12:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory (Post 9102567)
Also hearing Air Canada could cut another 95 domestic, Transborder and International routes too, including 9 additional domestic stations being closed. They're waiting to see how discussions with the government go.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29...-under-threat/

Most of those 95 will have already been suspended for months now. Some may never come back, while others like LHR-YOW will come back, but are suspended so long as the four gateways restrictions remain in effect.

When the MAX is cleared to fly (doubt it’ll be before year end), I wonder if pax will be adverse to flying on it. Notice how AC’s Q3 made no mention of “MAX” referring only to the 737-8.

zahav Nov 11, 2020 2:53 AM

I wonder how discussions will go with the government. It's delicate, because routes are a business decision, but in Canada with so many remote centres, it becomes political because it's their connection to the outside. But right now all the talk is about NOT travelling to the outside if not required, so by the government propping up routes it is somewhat contradictory. I would like to see what the airlines would do if only the business case for routes is considered. Then you can really see where they can trim the fat.

nname Nov 11, 2020 4:49 AM

A snapshot of AC operation for this week:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/29...ot-air-canada/

===================================

Also, seems like QR will codeshare with AC for YYZ-DOH... QR5508/09

zahav Nov 11, 2020 7:20 AM

Interesting to see the AC route data. No real surprises, except for maybe the two FRA routes being in the top 10 (I would've thought LHR would've been in there at least once before FRA).

Interesting that YEG and YYC to YVR is almost the same amount of seats as those cities to YYZ. But YVR to YYZ and significantly more.

On one of the side bars it has a link about YVR-DEL. A couple of the noted sections:

After operating repatriation flights between Delhi (DEL) and Vancouver (YVR) during the pandemic as part of India’s Vande Bharat Mission, the country’s national carrier is this month beginning scheduled service to the Canadian city. Air India plans to start a 3X-weekly operation from Oct. 25 using Boeing 777-300ER aircraft, offering 2,052 weekly two-way seats on the route.


Data provided by Sabre Market Intelligence shows that Vancouver was Delhi’s third largest market in North America during 2019 after Toronto and New York. O&D traffic between Delhi and Vancouver totaled 343,180 two-way passengers last year, a rise of 7.1% on the previous 12 months.

So AI clearly is differentiating between repatriation flights and scheduled flights. They must have confidence in the route to launch it officially outside of just repatriation flights. It was never really a question over whether there was demand for YVR-INDIA or not, rather it was the economics of making it work. Seems they've found a way. I'm surprised YVR came ahead of SFO and LAX though, that says something that YVR is the 3rd largest market ahead of those two.

thenoflyzone Nov 11, 2020 2:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory (Post 9102567)
Also hearing Air Canada could cut another 95 domestic, Transborder and International routes too, including 9 additional domestic stations being closed. They're waiting to see how discussions with the government go.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29...-under-threat/

Yeah, it's in the Q3 press release I posted above, neatly tucked in there....

I find the way AC sneaked it in there is stupid, and clearly demonstrates that it's a pressure tactic towards the government.

Either close the 9 stations, or don't. Don't threaten to do it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav (Post 9103302)

So AI clearly is differentiating between repatriation flights and scheduled flights. They must have confidence in the route to launch it officially outside of just repatriation flights. It was never really a question over whether there was demand for YVR-INDIA or not, rather it was the economics of making it work. Seems they've found a way. I'm surprised YVR came ahead of SFO and LAX though, that says something that YVR is the 3rd largest market ahead of those two.

Vande Bharat flights are repatriation flights. The flights AI is operating now, under the travel bubble restrictions, are scheduled flights. The repat flights are over and done with. When the travel bubble was established, AI was selling seats 1 month a time. The main difference now is that they have opened the flights for booking until March 2021.

The real test will be if AI decides to stick around when all restrictions are lifted and European carriers and the ME3+TK can compete on Canada-India.

wave46 Nov 11, 2020 4:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9101476)
The cancellations involve 10 Max 8s and 12 A220s.

Highlights

Q3 Passenger revenue : $507 million ($316 million domestic, $111 million over the Atlantic, $30 million Pacific, $28 million US transborder, $22 million other)
Q3 Cargo revenue : $216 million (half of it across the Atlantic)
Q3 Operating Income: -$785 million

Q3 Revenue passengers carried : 1.728 million (-88%)

Q3 Passenger load factor: 42.3%

It's gonna be a rough Q4.

Since Q3 is basically the money-making part of the year for many airlines, it portends a rough Q4 indeed.

I wonder if the boom in aviation will be done for awhile, noting the cancellations of the A220/Max 8 by Air Canada. Many airlines are going to have traumatized balance sheets for awhile and I can't see a ton of capital spending in the near future. It doesn't look good for Boeing and Airbus if the boom in orders turns into a bust. The thousands of orders booked for the 737 Max and A320neo may not prove as solid as it seemed a couple of years ago. Heck, I wonder about if the 777X and A330neo survive this.

I suspect the Max 8 cancellations are part of AC's compensation from Boeing. I wonder how the contract for the A220 stipulates cancellations, given that AC was one of the early purchases prior to Airbus taking over. Maybe they have a get out of jail free card for being a early adopter?

Innsertnamehere Nov 11, 2020 6:00 PM

Aviation will come back, but it will take a few years as restrictions are eased. Especially in developing countries.

thenoflyzone Nov 11, 2020 7:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wave46 (Post 9103495)
Since Q3 is basically the money-making part of the year for many airlines, it portends a rough Q4 indeed.

I wonder if the boom in aviation will be done for awhile, noting the cancellations of the A220/Max 8 by Air Canada. Many airlines are going to have traumatized balance sheets for awhile and I can't see a ton of capital spending in the near future. It doesn't look good for Boeing and Airbus if the boom in orders turns into a bust. The thousands of orders booked for the 737 Max and A320neo may not prove as solid as it seemed a couple of years ago. Heck, I wonder about if the 777X and A330neo survive this.

I suspect the Max 8 cancellations are part of AC's compensation from Boeing. I wonder how the contract for the A220 stipulates cancellations, given that AC was one of the early purchases prior to Airbus taking over. Maybe they have a get out of jail free card for being a early adopter?

Don't forget that AC has options to purchase 30 more A220s. So canceling 12 now, but firming up 12 at a later date - when people are flying- is probably what will end up happening.

The Max cancelations were predictable. The A220 cancelations, less so, and are a clear sign of a pressure tactic towards the federal government. This being said, they did threaten to cancel some A220s a few months ago, in typical AC fashion. So all signs point towards those 9 stations closing as well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere (Post 9103606)
Aviation will come back

Absolutely ! People are eager to travel. Once the 2 week quarantine upon return is no longer required, there will be a nice rebound. It might take a couple of years, but it will happen.

Dominion301 Nov 11, 2020 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav (Post 9103302)
Interesting to see the AC route data. No real surprises, except for maybe the two FRA routes being in the top 10 (I would've thought LHR would've been in there at least once before FRA).

Interesting that YEG and YYC to YVR is almost the same amount of seats as those cities to YYZ. But YVR to YYZ and significantly more.

On one of the side bars it has a link about YVR-DEL. A couple of the noted sections:

After operating repatriation flights between Delhi (DEL) and Vancouver (YVR) during the pandemic as part of India’s Vande Bharat Mission, the country’s national carrier is this month beginning scheduled service to the Canadian city. Air India plans to start a 3X-weekly operation from Oct. 25 using Boeing 777-300ER aircraft, offering 2,052 weekly two-way seats on the route.


Data provided by Sabre Market Intelligence shows that Vancouver was Delhi’s third largest market in North America during 2019 after Toronto and New York. O&D traffic between Delhi and Vancouver totaled 343,180 two-way passengers last year, a rise of 7.1% on the previous 12 months.

So AI clearly is differentiating between repatriation flights and scheduled flights. They must have confidence in the route to launch it officially outside of just repatriation flights. It was never really a question over whether there was demand for YVR-INDIA or not, rather it was the economics of making it work. Seems they've found a way. I'm surprised YVR came ahead of SFO and LAX though, that says something that YVR is the 3rd largest market ahead of those two.

Seeing FRA with more weekly seats than YOW and YHZ is kinda shocking. Even YEG being way higher than YOW is something as even though YEG normally has 50% more pax than YOW, AC has traditionally been a bit bigger at YOW than at YEG. Government travel to/from YOW these days is non-existent. Only 4 Rapidair flights today departed YOW as a case in point.

YYCguys Nov 12, 2020 2:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9103700)
People are eager to travel. Once the 2 week quarantine upon return is no longer required, there will be a nice rebound. It might take a couple of years, but it will happen.

Agreed. People aren’t travelling for fear of catching the virus. They aren’t travelling because of the inconvenience of the quarantine. Seems a bit strange to me. I won’t be travelling if not essential for quite some time.

hollywoodcory Nov 12, 2020 5:49 AM

Speaking of AC and cutting routes, they dropped a ton of Transborder routes for December.

The oddest change is YVR-Hawaii got pushed to mid-December, but YYC-OGG is still scheduled to resume early December. This has to be the first change on AC to favour YYC over YVR recently.

CloudInspector Nov 12, 2020 7:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory (Post 9104126)
Speaking of AC and cutting routes, they dropped a ton of Transborder routes for December.

The oddest change is YVR-Hawaii got pushed to mid-December, but YYC-OGG is still scheduled to resume early December. This has to be the first change on AC to favour YYC over YVR recently.

A result of YYC’s quick test pilot program no doubt.

hollywoodcory Nov 12, 2020 5:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CloudInspector (Post 9104155)
A result of YYC’s quick test pilot program no doubt.

Indeed, the plot twist I didn't even see coming. AC resuming YYC-Hawaii not only before YVR, but currently scheduled even before WS.

Of course this is all subject to change as we all know.

Edit: just like that it’s also been delayed to mid-December :haha:

thenoflyzone Nov 12, 2020 9:29 PM

^ lol

You need to slow down, for your own good...;)

Highly unlikely your going to see a surge of international or US flights from YYC right now, simply because the trials force you to stay in Alberta after you come back, therefore are only realistically available for Albertans. Considering YYC has always been a connecting hub, with much less O&D compared to YUL/YVR/YYZ, it's pretty evident that even with these trials, you're not going to see a ton of additional flights.

Hence why people on airliners were wondering why one of the big 3 airports isn't more directly involved with these trials, where the real benefits lie.

thenoflyzone Nov 12, 2020 9:44 PM

YUL finally posted August and September stats.

https://www.admtl.com/sites/default/...et_2020_EN.pdf

August 2020

Total: 236,245
Domestic: 144,187
International: 78,875
US: 13,183

Sept 2020

Total: 195,593
Domestic:115,768
International: 67,023
US: 12,802

YTD total: 4,858,372 (-69.1%)

==============================================

YTD passenger numbers for the big 4, until Sept:

YYZ : 11.8 million (-69%)
YVR : 6.4 million (-68%)
YUL : 4.85 million (-69%)
YYC : 4.76 million (-65%) <---- YYC's domestic hub strength is evidenced here, by the performance of Y.O.Y %, compared to the big 3. At this rate, YYC should pass YUL this year. Who would have thunk it last January....

hollywoodcory Nov 12, 2020 10:05 PM

I see YYC being the slowest as why it was chosen, that and possibly even for political reasons.

I certainly agree. AC won't jump right back into YYC.

The pilot program does give them incentive to maybe resume flying to places like PHX, CUN, PVR and even OGG, which is where there is demand from Alberta.

Currently AA also has YYC-PHX planned in December, but I'm not convinced on it happening.

whatnext Nov 12, 2020 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav (Post 9103180)
I wonder how discussions will go with the government. It's delicate, because routes are a business decision, but in Canada with so many remote centres, it becomes political because it's their connection to the outside. But right now all the talk is about NOT travelling to the outside if not required, so by the government propping up routes it is somewhat contradictory. I would like to see what the airlines would do if only the business case for routes is considered. Then you can really see where they can trim the fat.

Which is exactly why AC played this card now, ahead of negotiations over aid. Both the US and Europe have handed out airline-industry-specific aid, why Trudeau has dragged his feet while giving away the kitchen sink in other areas is puzzling.


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