I've talked hockey a gazillion times with countless people since 1995, and most of those people were Hab fans. From this area but also all over Quebec, Ontario (east and north) and the Maritimes.
I can say with confidence I've never heard a Montreal Canadiens fan say they're glad the Nordiques are gone. In my current office environment there are about a half-dozen men, all of them Habs fans. Ages 28 to about 55. Since earlier today I've asked them all if they'd like the Nordiques to come back. All of them answered a resounding yes. I don't know how people could doubt what the answer would be. It's like asking an Italian if he eats pasta. |
Not that it's the same as the Habs fans scenario since we're obviously a long way away, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find many people here in Winnipeg opposed to the idea of Quebec getting a team. Now, people might be opposed to certain scenarios... obviously if you framed it as 'would you be OK with the Jets moving to Quebec' then obviously that wouldn't go over well. Some people also might not want more expansion teams.
But if it came down to a scenario like "imagine the Arizona Coyotes were failing, where would you want them to relocate to? Houston, Atlanta or Quebec?" I would imagine Quebec would poll well into the 90 percent + range. Even though the NHL is a North American league, the reality is that Canadians tend to pay way more attention to the other Canadian teams. Teams like the Flames or Leafs register way more prominently in Winnipeg than divisional rivals like the Blackhawks or Wild. If the Tkachuk/Kassian thing had happened in a game between the Golden Knights and Sharks or whoever, it wouldn't have been that big a deal. But when two Canadian teams are involved, it becomes water cooler conversation fodder clear across the country. |
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As for the Habs-Nords rivalry I lived it live and in colour during my teenage and young adult years. I suppose that for younger fans who did not that there is a sufficient amount of hockey, sports and cultural lore about it in Quebec that they're aware it was a huge deal and that something was lost. I mean, the last installment of the classic dramatic franchise (TV series and movies) about the rivalry (Lance et Compte) was produced and broadcast in... 2015! A couple years ago there was also a hockey-based reality show where two teams (one representing Montreal, the other representing Quebec City) were created and pitted against each other, with the coaches being former members of the Habs and Nords of course. These are just two examples. Another one is a couple of years ago the Labatt brewery had an ad campaign where they plastered billboards all over the place for "Blue", and which said "Bonne comme le but d'Alain Côté" (As good as Alain Côté's goal), in reference to this critical goal that was (in)famously disallowed by the ref: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV0i2UN3iqs I don't think there are many hockey fans in Quebec, even under the age of 30, who aren't aware that something pretty cool was lost in 1995 and that it would be great to get it back. |
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But for the Habs the main rivals are of course the Bruins. Then it's the Leafs and Senators. The Leafs main rivals are the Habs, and also the Sens to some degree, though historically they've also had rivalries with the Red Wings, Sabres due to proximity and playing them often, and with other Canadian teams. In the West you're kinda fortunate to have four teams over 3-4 provinces, for 10-12 million people. Ontario only has two teams for 14 million people. And Quebec has one team for 8.5 million people. Your situation is good for in-Canada rivalries. Plus most of the U.S. teams in the West are quite far away from you guys. |
^ Yeah, fair enough. A bit of a different animal here since we don't really have (in Wpg) longstanding histories with most US teams. The first couple of years in the league we were in the old southeast division too, before getting moved which kind of disrupted things. The Jets have had some spirited games with the likes of Nashville, St. Louis and Minnesota but there is nothing remotely on the same level as the history between the Habs and Bruins. And Minnesota is the only US team that is somewhat easy to get to... everything else means a long and somewhat pricy flight. No $99 specials to Dallas or St. Louis...
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You have the same thing going on with the Sens-Leafs rivalry which while it does exist for Leaf fans too, is a far bigger deal in Ottawa than it is in Toronto. The Leafs are easily the most hated sports team of any kind in Ottawa. |
Since i'm sure this will create some spirited discussion:
"Back to the business of media. I'm told that the regional tv rights for your @NHLFlames + @EdmontonOilers both expire after this season. Those in the know believe @Sportsnet will walk away from @NHLFlames and stick with @EdmontonOilers. More as season progresses. By all accounts, and don't shoot the messenger...flames ratings have next to no upside - they are what they are. Oilers have room to grow. Which is why Rogers would drop flames and keep oilers" via Jonah (@yyzsportsmedia) on Twitter. |
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The Nord vs Habs. Good golly miss molly that was bloody great hockey. |
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Now, the entire country cheering against Vancouver was something else. |
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See what I did there? Bettman's expansion isn't what made the NHL the most valuable league to date, trends in the entire industry is what did that. The NFL, NBA and MLB are the most valuable to date as well. All the NHL has done is try to keep up. Vegas has been a success so far but what the Golden Knights are worth in a decade when the novelty has worn off and they have the NFL to compete with is anybody's guess. Quote:
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The NFL in town will obviously be a game-changer and perhaps even moreso if the NBA ever came to Vegas that might shift the dynamic significantly. |
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The point is that a new franchise would never command the premium that it does today if the league never expanded beyond traditional hockey markets. There isn't a Canadian market left that can justify paying the current price tag for a franchise, there is now examples of two non-traditional American markets in the few years that can... Arizona and Florida are acceptable loss leaders to NHL management if it results in even a few successes like Vegas, Nashville, most likely Seattle, etc. |
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So what do you propose? Moving Florida to Quebec City? The NHL does not get into a better situation by doing this for reasons i've already outlined and others have mentioned in this thread. Florida holds onto a pretty key area for the league (Southern Florida) and one with a lot of potential if the Panthers ever field a strong team. Florida can bleed money as much as it likes in operations - NHL revenues have doubled in the last decade, sponsorships are at an all-time high, and a new TV deal will provide additional revenue. Florida losing money every year is worth it for the overall growth potential that areas serves (~7M in pop.). Arizona's gains this year in season tickets, merchandise, and overall interest should provide a good blueprint. |
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I can't find it unfortunately but a couple of years ago there was an article that had a table in which you had the percentages of people who followed the NHL in all of the NHL markets, plus selected non-NHL markets in Canada and the USA.
All of the Canadian markets (and if IIRC they covered Quebec City but also Saskatoon, Kingston, St. Catharines-Niagara, etc.) were in the upper 40s to lower 60s % as far as people following the NHL to some degree. Again, IIRC the highest percentage shown for the US markets was around 25% and it was Pittsburgh. Buffalo may have been in that range as well. Many of the NHL's current US markets had NHL interest in the single digit percentage points. As did Seattle I am pretty sure. Some smallish Canadian metros where the NHL would never dream of setting up shop actually have more total NHL fans in sheer numbers than certain US cities currently in the league. So what we really have going on is the NHL looking solely at total population figures and disposable income, and gambling that they can turn significant proportions of people (way over and above the current minimal interest) into fans of the NHL. They've been doing this for a couple of decades now. It seems to me that their success rate is about 50-50 at the very best. It does fly in the face of usual business logic whereby you focus first on keeping the clients you've already got. Or at least you don't disrespect them to the point where you start to slowly turn them off your product. I am sensitive to the importance of growing new market segments, but it's a bit odd to have people in under-served or un-served location X literally pining for your shawarma and not opening a location there, and instead opening a whole bunch of locations where people have never even heard of shawarma. Ideally you would have a balanced approach and do a bit of both. |
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The shawarma joint needs to be in each physical location because someone from Hamilton isn't driving to Toronto to pick up a shawarma. The NHL has determined (probably correctly) that hockey viewership in Canada is relatively inelastic whether there are 7 teams or 10. Putting a team in Hamilton that carves a decent niche for itself out of the current Leafs fanbase does nothing to improve the next tv deal that the league gets. Attendance numbers for the league would definitely be better with more Canadian representation, but to be honest those are mostly feel good stats nowadays and not representative of what drives value creation in the North American model. |
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Canada as a whole is in the >40s% following the NHL to some degree, Manitoba is at almost half the population following the NHL, Saskatchewan is less than a third of the population following the NHL, everywhere else in Canada is some where in between, close to half the population. https://i.imgur.com/YtiBjJM.png Even though Saskatchewan doesn't have a team or follow the NHL as closely as all the other provinces of Canada, Saskatchewan still supplies the highest per capita percentage of NHL players in North America. Three St Louis Blues Stanley Cup winners last year are from Sask. https://www.stltoday.com/sports/hock...fc242270a.html Quote:
I'd imagine if Saskatoon were to get an NHL team in the future, especially once Saskatoon builds it's new downtown arena, the number of followers in the province would double or even triple, from the ~350,000 to close to a million followers, probably even to Rider fan numbers maybe (~65% of the 1 & a quarter million of province's population) |
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I always thought the location of the arena out at Sawgrass Mills was ridiculous. I always thought they should be in downtown Miami with the Heat, not out on the edge of Alligator Alley. To put the 2 arenas locations in perspective. BB&T is about as far from the American Airlines Arena in downtown Miami as Copps Coliseum in Hamilton is from Scotiabank Centre in Toronto. And the drive is at least as ugly between the 2. When they originally got that franchise, Wayne Huizenga figured it would be supported by snowbird hockey fans. I figured the support they were shown from the local community originally would have shown ownership that catering to the locals would have been the way to go, instead of building way out where they actually did. |
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kind of surprising in that chart that Alberta is so low on NHL, considering they have 2 teams. Smaller by a point than Atlantic Canada which is basically a day's drive to the nearest team, and only slightly better than Sask.
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The Panthers actually played in the Miami Arena (shared with the Heat) during the first 5-6 years of their existence. Attendance wasn't stellar there either - about the same as in Sunrise. There aren't any sure things in terms of building hockey support in South Florida, but I think moving closer to the snowbird population in Broward County (people from the northern states, Québécois and other Canadians) is probably not a bad calculation. Compare those demographics to those of central Miami in terms of hockey-interested people. Their arena's location is not the source of their woes. |
^ I took a few winter vacations to the Fort Lauderdale area and never bothered going to a Panthers game because the rink was just too far to be worth the hassle. Meanwhile, the area I was staying in had so many Quebec and Ontario visitors that at some traffic lights you'd see more cars with Canadian plates near you than ones with Florida tags. I get that land closer to the water is pricier, but that to me would seem like pretty fertile ground for hockey? And downtown Fort Lauderdale, which is fairly substantial in its own right, is not too far away so it's not like there isn't a corporate presence nearby.
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How many people in places like Pittsburgh or Green Bay follow the NFL? I betcha it's a lot higher than the 40-60% who follow the NHL in Canadian cities. Given hockey's place in Canadian culture, history and lore the NHL should be as popular here as the NFL is in the U.S. I'd argue that it used to be that way (or at least pretty close) but that it no longer is and it's moving in the wrong direction right now. As esquire noted, NHL interest lapsed in Winnipeg and then surged back up when the Jets returned to town. NHL interest has quite clearly stagnated and has even begun a slow decline in Quebec. This is not just due to the absence of the Nordiques (the Habs have sucked in a number of seasons) but it's surely a factor. As others have said heated rivalries are good for maintaining interest and passion even when teams aren't having a particularly good season. Finally, it's a lot easier to rekindle interest in lapsed or passive NHL fans that used to follow the game than it is to attract and educate people for whom it's mostly an alien sport. |
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I'm not complaining about FLA's arena location. My aunt's house in Coral Springs is a 10 minute drive. Very convenient for when I'm visiting. Was also convenient that the Leafs happened to be in town when I was last there.
But definitely an odd feeling location. |
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If the next NBC TV deal doubles it'll still be smaller than the Rogers deal. If it triples it'll be only slightly bigger. Not very impressive considering the population of the US. Quote:
I'm not proposing anything. This whole discussion got started when I simply pointed out that teams aren't located where the demand is and that if they were, there would be more teams in Canada and fewer in the US. For some reason a lot of Canadians seem to take offence to that fact and I have no idea why. In any case, nothing you've said has disproven my original point. |
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https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...5ca38fe6_o.png Harris Poll, via BusinessInsider Quote:
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2009: $7 billion 2019: $21 billion Growth: 217% Sounds impressive, right? Until you look at what the NBA has done in the same amount of time. 2009: $11 billion 2019: $56 billion Growth: 410% So the NBA has grown almost twice as fast as the NHL and is almost triple the value of the NHL, and they've done it without expansion. Kind of makes the NHL's supposed growth look a bit less impressive doesn't it? A survey asking people their favourite sport is all well and good, but the money paints a different picture. I know what someone is going to say. Canada is holding the NHL back. Which makes me sad that any self respecting Canadian would think like that, and yet here we are. Canadian teams are worth, on average, $685 million while US teams average $655 million, with sunbelt teams being significantly lower. The difference is more stark when you look at profits, and growth is the same between both countries. |
Canada isn't holding the NHL back at all. The reason the NBA has exploded in growth is because basketball is likely the second most popular sport in the world after soccer. The NBA has by far the biggest international growth potential out of any North American league, and the franchise values are reflective of the growth the league has fostered in places like China.
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And the NBA doesn't have nearly as many sad-sack teams like the NHL does. In fact, does the NBA have any teams that are like the Arizona Coyotes and a couple of others? I think not. |
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The NBA got lucky that the largest country in the world fell in love with the sport of basketball. League-wide revenue and value projections took a serious hit during the whole Morey controversy this off-season.
I would hardly use that as proof that the NHL management is holding back growth. In that case, Saskatchewan's policy makers are obviously restricting real estate price appreciation because they're not keeping up with Vancouver. |
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Meanwhile in Winnipeg (or any Canadian market really) it's almost a hundred bucks for nosebleeds with the highest paid Jet earning a comparatively measly $8 million. Maybe Americans can do us a solid and start watching NHL games on television so TV money will finally flow and they won't need to soak ticket buyers to pay the players? |
Realistically, teams are going to charge whatever they can get away with. The perpetually terrible Knicks arent any cheaper because they could subsidize MSG losses with their tv deal. I'm sure both the Magic and the Coyotes would charge more if the demand was there.
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The Marlins thought that a new modern stadium would help, but they still don't draw very well. The Rays also struggle despite being a competitive team, hence the overtures for a new stadium (which IMO won't fix the problem). I'm not surprised that the NHL has struggled in Florida, the current Tampa Bay Lightning excepted. It almost seems like the culture of the place is unfriendly to sports in general. But hey, there's a reason I'm not part of the NHL/NFL/MLB/NBA braintrust. |
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-Magic -Heat (unless they're in Lebron domination mode) -Panthers -Dolphins -Buccaneers -Jaguars -Rays -Marlins The Lightning might actually be the best of the bunch. I guess when you combine the nice weather and plethora of other things to do, combined with the fact that so many people come from elsewhere and don't have any allegiance to the home teams, the interest may just not be there. |
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U of Miami gets 55-65,000 per game and Florida (Gators) and Florida State (Seminoles) probably draw even more than that. |
^ I didn't think the U drew quite as well anymore... although the Gators and Seminoles still do. Interesting snapshot of Florida culture right there, though... the northern part of the state where the Seminoles and Gators play are firmly entrenched in the southern SEC football-loving culture. You get away from that once you start to head south toward Orlando and the tip of the state where they don't care nearly as much.
As friends who are born and raised the Miami area once told us, in Florida you have to "go north to go south". |
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