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-   -   SAN DIEGO | Boom Rundown, Vol. 2 (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=126473)

tyleraf Sep 26, 2014 12:08 AM

SDCal beat me to it. At least we know that someone else in San Diego is sick of the stupidity.

SDfan Sep 26, 2014 12:12 AM

Looks like Ballpark Village is getting a unit increase (and a slight sqft decrease):

http://www.civicsd.com/meetings-and-...l-meeting.html

Original unit count: 622
New unit count: 720

Original sqft: 1,016,209
New sqft: 1,004,810

Whatever, that's over 100 more units. :D

SDfan Sep 26, 2014 12:18 AM

Hahaha! This is a parody. Look!

https://twitter.com/risetheballoon/s...84443754000384

Bertrice Sep 26, 2014 12:25 AM

I tweeted the port about the nevp and this was the response.
Port of San Diego
‏@portofsandiego Sep 23
@---- We should be making an official announcement soon, but we expect it to be by the end of the year.

spoonman Sep 26, 2014 3:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SDfan (Post 6743884)
Looks like Ballpark Village is getting a unit increase (and a slight sqft decrease):

http://www.civicsd.com/meetings-and-...l-meeting.html

Original unit count: 622
New unit count: 720

Original sqft: 1,016,209
New sqft: 1,004,810

Whatever, that's over 100 more units. :D

Anyone know when this breaks ground?

Leo the Dog Sep 26, 2014 7:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SDfan (Post 6743884)
Looks like Ballpark Village is getting a unit increase (and a slight sqft decrease):

http://www.civicsd.com/meetings-and-...l-meeting.html

Original unit count: 622
New unit count: 720

Original sqft: 1,016,209
New sqft: 1,004,810

Whatever, that's over 100 more units. :D

Wow, good news.

On a side note, I just drove north on the 5 from the south bay (I rarely go south of DT) and was pleasantly shocked at the enormous size of 15th/island. This is an absolute game changer for the East Village. :tup:

S.DviaPhilly Sep 26, 2014 3:48 PM

Ballpark Village Bust...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SDfan (Post 6743884)
Looks like Ballpark Village is getting a unit increase (and a slight sqft decrease):

http://www.civicsd.com/meetings-and-...l-meeting.html

Original unit count: 622
New unit count: 720

Original sqft: 1,016,209
New sqft: 1,004,810

Whatever, that's over 100 more units. :D

I am not the biggest fan of this project. I think it is beautiful from the outside and love how tall the proposed tower is supposed to be (411ft), but the project was supposed to be a mix of condos and rentals and now will just be all rentals! The developer I feel pulled a fast one, never planned on having it condos and rentals and already has a plan to sell the complex to a leasing company. (I think the same company who leases Archstone, Brookestone, etc.)

Since the developer is adding 100 more units, each unit is going to be super small. The square footage of the tower did not increase (but amount of parking did decrease), just the amount of units. I heard because of that a lot of the units are losing the planned patios for juliet balconies because they need that square footage for more indoor space. Outdoor space is essential in SD, right?!?!?

I live in the East Village and I feel the whole neighborhood is turning into rentals. 13th and Market is brand new, 15th and Market just opened, Urbana is under construction, same with 688 lofts and of course the high-rise going up at 15th and Island. That is over 2500 new rentals and no new condos to sell. This city needs more condos yesterday, the inventory for sale is super low. Not sure what developers are waiting for?!?! It is not like you break ground and finish a high-rise in months. By the time Ballpark Village would be complete, I bet they would be close to 100% sold - especially because the last condo building finished was Bayside in 2009.

I am all for development and lots of it..as tall as you can build it with as many condos/apts you can get in there (including convention center expansion and downtown stadium), but not when it doesn't make sense. The developer created this amazingly beautiful project and then ruined it with 500sqft 1 bedrooms, 800sqft. 2 bedrooms and 1000sqft 3 bedrooms. Thats tiny!!! I think San Diego deserves better and that we shouldn't just build projects "because it is better than what is there."

spoonman Sep 26, 2014 4:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by S.DviaPhilly (Post 6744702)
I am not the biggest fan of this project. I think it is beautiful from the outside and love how tall the proposed tower is supposed to be (411ft), but the project was supposed to be a mix of condos and rentals and now will just be all rentals! The developer I feel pulled a fast one, never planned on having it condos and rentals and already has a plan to sell the complex to a leasing company. (I think the same company who leases Archstone, Brookestone, etc.)

Since the developer is adding 100 more units, each unit is going to be super small. The square footage of the tower did not increase (but amount of parking did decrease), just the amount of units. I heard because of that a lot of the units are losing the planned patios for juliet balconies because they need that square footage for more indoor space. Outdoor space is essential in SD, right?!?!?

I live in the East Village and I feel the whole neighborhood is turning into rentals. 13th and Market is brand new, 15th and Market just opened, Urbana is under construction, same with 688 lofts and of course the high-rise going up at 15th and Island. That is over 2500 new rentals and no new condos to sell. This city needs more condos yesterday, the inventory for sale is super low. Not sure what developers are waiting for?!?! It is not like you break ground and finish a high-rise in months. By the time Ballpark Village would be complete, I bet they would be close to 100% sold - especially because the last condo building finished was Bayside in 2009.

I am all for development and lots of it..as tall as you can build it with as many condos/apts you can get in there (including convention center expansion and downtown stadium), but not when it doesn't make sense. The developer created this amazingly beautiful project and then ruined it with 500sqft 1 bedrooms, 800sqft. 2 bedrooms and 1000sqft 3 bedrooms. Thats tiny!!! I think San Diego deserves better and that we shouldn't just build projects "because it is better than what is there."

Those units do sounds small, but as you know, the developer would not build them if they were not in demand. This city needs more housing stock of every kind. Even though we also need more condos, apartment development indirectly takes pressure off the condo market as it helps keep rents down, making renting more attractive. Apartments are very hot right now as they are in short supply, and rents are projected to keep increasing. I don't know what developers are waiting for with condo developments...my guess is that many are in the pipeline heading towards approval. The housing market didn't really recover until about 1-2 years ago, so I suspect condos are coming.

With regard to EV, it's probably a case of timing and economics. Apartments probably pencil out better due to the lower cost of land (as opposed to Marina, etc.). As well, there is still land availavble. I imagine that as the area has cleaned up a bit, more condos will go in soon.

Regarding apartments and downtown, I am glad to see so many apartments. Rentals likely mean younger residents and possibly more street life, etc.

SDfan Sep 26, 2014 4:55 PM

I think this article from SDDT pretty much explains why building condos right now has been considered risky:

Quote:

The seven summits to climb when developing condos in San Diego
http://www.sddt.com/Commentary/artic...o#.VCWY1vldWCs

I have 35 new rental projects in my downtown San Diego database. In addition, I also have a small list of projects that are supposed to be condominiums, but there does not seem to be any dirt being moved for those projects.

Vertical condominiums are scary things to develop. Here’s why:

First, the typical vertical condominium takes 24 months to process, including creating the working drawings and getting them through the permit process. Then it takes two years to build. Therefore, developers have to convince themselves that the market will be there in four years. After all, you cannot close escrow on one unit until all the units are built and you have a certificate of occupancy.

Second, you have to determine four years in advance exactly what the market will want at the time the units are ready for occupancy. Condominium markets have changing tastes as many a developer has found out. What unit mix should you lock in? The big problem with planning vertical condominiums is that once you have made a decision on unit mix and sizes, you are pretty well locked in for the duration.

Third, the costs of construction are in motion. A developer applies for a loan to acquire the land and construct the project, but no general contractor is going to lock in pricing that far in advance. In today’s world, the price of materials is not exactly stable and the price of labor is creeping up.

Fourth, from day one, prices have to be established. You can’t get a loan without knowing what the product will sell for. And that means you have to project years in advance what the state of the market will be at the time of project completion.

Fifth, it is necessary to determine what interest rates will be in four years, as well as during the period of the construction loan. What would be the effect on projected sales and pricing if interest went from their current level to maybe six or seven percent?

Sixth, developers are inevitably faced with an absence of knowledge about their competition. There is a herd mentality in the industry. In the last round, there were 50-plus condominium projects built downtown in a seven-year time-frame (plus a half-dozen condominium conversions). Most of the developers made money or at least came out alive. Those who came in early in the game did particularly well. Now, we are in a strange time. No one has broken ground on a new condominium project in downtown San Diego in almost a decade and it will be at least three years before the next one is complete (unless some of the rental projects under or near construction sells to a condominium developer). Fortunately, in the 2000 to 2007 time frame, the market was steaming; loans were ridiculously easy to obtain (including liar loans); and the national economy was buoyant. Then the economy started to unravel. Also, fortunately, we did not have a major overhang of unsold units. In Miami, there were 30,000 high-rise condominium units under construction or completed and unsold when the wheels came off the economy.

And seventh, and finally, the developer must roll the dice on what the national and local economy will be doing in four years. What will the job market look like? How about inflation? Will we be engaged in warlike activities somewhere in the globe?

What is it like for a developer who is building a 200-unit high-rise to have the market go sideways after the building is complete and only half the units are sold?
Such is the life of a vertical condominium developer.

P.S. And then there is also the specter of litigation. Of the 57 projects built downtown from 2000 to 2007, 42 were subject to litigation. No laughing matter.
As for all of the rental construction, I see it as a phase in condo development. Before the last recession we had a lot of rental to condo conversions. Developers today are still feeling out the market. They know rentals are profitable but with the slow recovery in housing and the difficulty in obtaining a mortgage, condos are a scarier proposition. But if they build rentals with condo conversion maps (which I understand has been the case with a lot of these projects downtown) then the transition from rental to condo will come back almost like a light switch when the market is finally secure. Its going to take time.

In the meantime, we need to build as many apartments as possible. The rental market is on fire, and we need supply to keep rents from growing exponentially.

mello Sep 26, 2014 9:16 PM

Good article SDfan, very eye opening so now we know why condos aren't being built. I just hope BOSA gets moving on his Broadway tower soon that will really make a huge addition to the waterfront with what looks to be world class architecture.

While 15th and Island is nice I'm kind of ready for other projects to get going I thought Ballpark Village would have broken ground by now. It will really compliment 15th/I very well because now it is just kind of out there on its own. I'm crossing my fingers for a 450 to 500 footer at the Library Towers site as well. That will give East Village a really nice cluster of talls.

Was at Blue Sky yesterday Swinerton Sign is up but no activity. We need some other projects to come online like 11th and Broadway.

SDfan Sep 27, 2014 4:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mello (Post 6745276)
Good article SDfan, very eye opening so now we know why condos aren't being built. I just hope BOSA gets moving on his Broadway tower soon that will really make a huge addition to the waterfront with what looks to be world class architecture.

While 15th and Island is nice I'm kind of ready for other projects to get going I thought Ballpark Village would have broken ground by now. It will really compliment 15th/I very well because now it is just kind of out there on its own. I'm crossing my fingers for a 450 to 500 footer at the Library Towers site as well. That will give East Village a really nice cluster of talls.

Was at Blue Sky yesterday Swinerton Sign is up but no activity. We need some other projects to come online like 11th and Broadway.

I just hope Alexan gets built, it will be a nice step down from 15th and Island and give the skyline some stretch into the East Village. I also hope some actual towers start construction. We've been getting a lot of mid-rise activity, and while I appreciate the unit count, they are still only barely meeting the minimum FAR on a lot of these lots. I just get irritated because this one of the few places in the city where you can get such generous FARs, and its almost being wasted, especially on Market.

I hope 11th and Broadway is eventually completed. The company, Pinnacle, is behind the projects and 15th and Island. If they market to more of a middle class clientele (versus all the "luxury" complexes going up) they could have a hit on their hands.

I read an article somewhere about the rental market in SD though, I think in the daily, and I guess a lot of real estate professionals are getting worried about over-saturation of the market downtown. Demand for apartments is huge in the region, but concentrating all of our efforts in one area can be detrimental. They also said the uptown, north park markets are on fire and that new development would ease the demand there but given all the restrictions things are unlikely to change. That's probably the most frustrating thing for me personally, given the illogical reasons for not building up in the urban core. :sly:

mello Sep 27, 2014 8:31 PM

I agree we are lagging on towers right now, so many are approved and ready to go but no activity is moving forward. Good luck with Pinnacle focusing on middle class when was the last time a high rise tower wasn't branded as "luxury"? I wish there were more towers that were middle class oriented, we shall see.

staplesla Sep 27, 2014 9:47 PM

Does anyone know when the 2nd tower at 15th & Island is to start construction?

spoonman Sep 27, 2014 10:06 PM

Anyone know when Ballpark Village breaks ground?

tyleraf Sep 27, 2014 10:48 PM

Spoonman: Last I heard they wanted to break ground sometime this winter or early next year on BV.
StaplesLA: Don't quote me on this but I believe that Pinnacle plans to break ground on tower 2 in 2016 sometime, I could be wrong though.

aerogt3 Sep 29, 2014 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leo the Dog (Post 6743458)
This exists in just about every single city. It could be much worse here.

Aero, property owners pay the most in taxes, whereas, young/renters do not. Property owners votes are taken more seriously by local politicians. They also tend to make donations, whereas transients do not because they're here one day, gone tomorrow.

Density is not just for a renters. There are lots of people who also BUY condos :omg:

Leo the Dog Sep 29, 2014 7:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aerogt3 (Post 6747477)
Density is not just for a renters. There are lots of people who also BUY condos :omg:

Of course, however, increasing density does equal a big increase of renters, especially if we're talking about an area like Bay Park, which is largely filled with SFHs/homeowners.

tyleraf Sep 30, 2014 8:11 PM

Typical. http://m.utsandiego.com/news/2014/se...nt-apartments/

spoonman Sep 30, 2014 9:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tyleraf (Post 6749708)

Bummer. I guess the office market isn't quite there yet, and it must be hard to roll out a ton of units down the street from Civita. Wish they would at least build a tower so that they have room to add more later (maybe they still do?).

spoonman Oct 1, 2014 1:04 AM

This may be the silver bullet that helps the city take a stand against NIMBY's.

http://voiceofsandiego.org/2014/09/3...es-with-teeth/


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