https://media.flyflair.com/flair-air...tario-markets/

flair airlines to add service in ontario markets
Summer 2023 schedule will see added service: Kitchener-Waterloo to Abbotsford, Toronto to Kelowna, and Ottawa to Thunder Bay
Fares start at $19 one-way from Ottawa to Thunder Bay
Edmonton, Alberta October 17, 2022

Oh, Flair.

You are the Norwegian Long-Haul of Canada. Might as well run the plane on the piles of cash being set on fire. The 737 MAX Cash Burn: Now with available 'Cash Burn' option for ULCC operators where auxiliary fuel tank can be stuffed with paper cash and fed into engines. Actually cheaper than jet fuel these days!

Imagine getting a job before you even land in your place of refuge :haha: Nice.

PAL (our "national" airline) has been chartered by our government to fly about 1,100 Ukrainians to St. John's.

https://i.postimg.cc/5ywcXTrN/qR71a2R.png

I'm not sure what financing Westjet has for the 787s, but I'll spitball a bit.

A quickie estimate puts the flyaway cost of a 787-9 as ~$100m USD. So, Westjet is looking at a capital outlay of ~$700m USD for their fleet.

That's to have it sit in a hangar. When one factors in the cost per flight hour and cost per seat-mile, they are undoubtedly more expensive than their 737 fleet on the same metrics. Why? Because you're buying the capability of high capacity, very long-haul intercontinental flight of the 787. Great, if you use it properly for purpose. Westjet isn't. It's Europe from Western Canada, domestic thick route, and occasional sun flight plane. Not exactly using it to its best ability there. The A330neo would have been a better fit perhaps, but then Westjet loses the Boeing-exclusive pricing advantage with that option.

If you're using it wrong, the math doesn't work out. A Chevrolet Suburban is a bad tool for tootling one person down to the local suburban grocery store. Now, if you're hauling 7 railroad workers plus a utility trailer to an off-road worksite, it's more fit for that job and a job a teeny sedan will cry 'uncle' on.

I suspect getting out of the 787 completely costs Westjet more than they will save at this juncture; it also keeps their foot in the door of intercontinental operations should they feel another attempt is merited.

Interesting, and you have some good points. But at the same time AC also puts a lot of their 787's on Europe flights and a lot of domestic runs and seem to be doing fine, and so do other airlines. What other routes should WS put their 787's on if Europe isn't good use of their planes? Maybe it's just me but I think longer routes to Australia or India or DXB is probably riskier than Europe. I'd assume that just because a plane has the range to do a longer route, doesn't mean that it's a good idea to.

All these numbers are highly confidential, I don't know what they are. Then toss in the fact that Boeing messed up on the 737 program and then the 787. They had to pay the airlines compensation for being late, and much of that was done as discounts on aircraft purchases.

That said, Air Canada had additional 787 options at likely good discounts. If some of their market filings, they indicated they chose not to exercise them and instead buy second hand A330 from TAP or Singapore airlines. They indicated for eastern Canada to Europe the A330 was a lighter, more economical aircraft to use. The 787 was better suited for Asia and South Pacific. They have a mix. They will use 787 on routes where it would be cheaper to use A330 because that is the aircraft that is available.

When WestJet purchased the 787 I think it was talking about growing it into a fleet of 20 and it gives it more flexibility than the A330. It is probably not a bad choice if they want to be agile going forward.

I get the impression they want to stabilize the situation financially before they consider growing the widebody fleet.

Perhaps I was unclear.

It's not that Europe is a bad choice per se for use of the 787 (admittedly there are better missions it is optimized for), it is that Westjet under uses the 787 writ large, especially during low season. During the winter season, the only service that is a good use of the plane will be Amsterdam/London from Calgary.

Planes that don't fly don't make money. Domestic/sun runs are mostly 'filler' for schedules and don't yield the same margins when trying to fill a big airplane. If you're making less per seat (because you have so many to fill) and you're using a more expensive-to-fly airplane, it's not great for profits.

About the best case for its use comes during summer peak to Europe for Westjet - June through September. The use case there somewhat mirrors Air Transat's use of the A330 during that season. However, Air Transat seems to make more effective use of the A330s year-round. AT might have other issues, but it does decently squeeze use out of their airplanes.

Which leads me to conclude that Westjet's management had probably greater hopes for international expansion than reality proved to be. International operations are hard and expensive, but the rewards for success are high (see: Air Canada). Now getting out of the 787 will likely cost more than keep them, and does let Westjet keep its options open for the future.

I'm just not sure when that future will be. Most mid-population (30-80m) countries can generally only support one full-service domestically-based international airline. Playing with the big boys is hard, as Westjet discovered.

Now as the second solid North America-focused player from Canada? We know that business case works.

So the bosses have essentially made it official that WS's "retrenching" in the West and focusing ops at YYC come at the expense of YYZ, interesting that they came out so openly and said the base was high cost and not as profitable. No shock there, they have so much competition, way way more than at YYC.

But WS's signals haven't pointed to YVR being reduced. This article itself said it is a "stronghold", and recent annoucements (Pacific Coastal and Korean codeshare agreements, adding connecting routes to YVR on Link, upgauging certain routes to Dreamliner, and keeping Swoop out of YVR entirely) do not indicate a shift of capacity out of YVR. And I believe they plan to still keep YVR-LGW as well, since I think that plane is based in YYC anyways? Time will tell how exactly what their ambitions translate to in terms of routes, but it sounds like YVR will either stay at status quo, or even get some new routes, but likely nothing major. Anything that can logically be routed through YYC will continue to be, but that's really no change. There's already somewhat limited domestic non-stop destinations (other than within BC, to YEG, or YYZ), most flights connect in YYC anyways, always have. Question mark I guess is if WS continues it's transborder/sun destination ops at YVR, or really shifts it all to YYC. I am inclined to think they will keep it, despite AC competition. They have healthy capacity to Hawaii, California, Phoenix, Vegas, and Mexico/ Shifting these flights to YYC will backfire on them for YVR travellers, people will easily switch to AC instead. They'd be smart to hold their own and utilize the conenctions from within BC and internationally (they still have codeshares with airlines like Korean, Qantas, Philippine Airlines, and I think some of the Chinese airlines?).

Oh YVR will get more service for sure, WS definitely won't neglect YVR. It might not be a hub like YYC but there's a lot of local and (BC connections) traffic that can fill up their flights. I still think they'll probably cut YVR-LGW because the wording "With WestJet concentrating its 787 fleet in Calgary beginning with the 2023 summer schedule, including exclusive regularly scheduled widebody service to Europe and the potential to Asia, nonstop destinations from Calgary are expected to increase to 100."

But I mean BA is pretty much replacing them in that scenario. Domestic/Transborder/Sun routes wise WS will certainly expand out of YVR.

I would not say BA is replacing them. BA is going from the A380 to two smaller aircraft with one going to Heathrow and the other to Gatwick.

During the summer with cruise traffic there is a lot of demand out of Vancouver. Historically it has justified BA with the A380, Air Canada with twice daily service and a combination of others including WS to Gatwick.

I don't think it is a given that WS will not operate the 787 route out of Vancouver. Only time will tell.

The sun/leisure routes from YVR are probably the last of the routes where WS have advantage over AC at YVR. Other more premium destination we already see WS service being slowly replaced by AC. So I don't really see them pull back on the sun routes at YVR and force everyone to transfer at YYC. If that's the case, AC and Flair would just come in and fill the gaps.

As for other services.. I think they'll still need to keep the YVR connectivity for some degree for the codeshare with Asian/Australian carriers? Unless they are planning to replace them with their own metals from YYC at some point (which they only have 7), I don't really see the Asian carriers will move their service from YVR to YYC. So WS still need to keep their feed at YVR, otherwise what's the point of codesharing?

i'ver never heard of Global X airlines before.

• Video Link

Major shareholder of Canada Jetlines. Obviously capped by 51% of the company having to be controlled by Canadians.

Yup:

Flair Airlines is in talks to merge with ex-Boeing CEO’s SPAC
Gillian Tan and Liana Baker, Bloomberg News
COMPANY NEWS
News Wire
2h ago

Flair Airlines is in talks to merge with ex-Boeing CEO’s SPAC
Gillian Tan and Liana Baker, Bloomberg News

Flair Airlines Ltd., a low-cost Canadian airline, is in talks to go public through a merger with New Vista Acquisition Corp., a blank check-firm backed by a former Boeing Co. chief executive officer, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

New Vista may seek to raise additional financing to support a transaction, said one of the people, all of whom requested anonymity in order to discuss private information. The special purpose acquisition company is led by Dennis Muilenburg, Boeing’s CEO from 2015 to 2019.

A deal hasn’t been finalized and it’s possible talks could collapse. Spokespeople for New Vista and Flair declined to comment.

Sign up to get breaking news email alerts sent directly to your inbox
New Vista raised US$276 million in a February 2021 initial public offering, saying that it planned to find a target in the space, defense and communications sector or the advanced air mobility and logistics industries....

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/flair-ai...spac-1.1836663

If WS are truly serious about 'strengthening east-west' connections, they would start by reinstating service from YVR to Canada's 2nd largest city and by restoring YVR service to Canada's Capital and 4th largest city to year-round.

With each passing month they become more and more on solid footing. I remember way back when a little airline called Porter was written off by everyone. Well today marks their 'sweet 16th' birthday: https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...871194682.html

You could argue Porter kicked WS to the curb before even flying a single jet RPM.

Porter had me at free beer. :)

If my destination is downtown TO, I wouldn't fly any other airline out of Moncton. :yes:

I definitely see YVR-YOW going year round at some point. I'd wait till next summer for any real changes though, WS indicated their new strategy shift won't really come into play until then.

Porter received an estimated $750 million (yes, that's 3/4 billion) for selling YTZ. You can survive on covering costs and fumes for quite a while with that kind of money.

The fact that Flair is relying on such an (ahem) "unconventional" business model really tells you all you need to know about their profitability.

Flair's first 24 months after New Leaf were definitely a joke, but there's now nothing unconventional about what they're doing. It's a page right outta Wizz Air...no surprise given they have ex-Wizzers, including their CEO. Obviously we don't have the population to have an ULCC with 300 aircraft, but an airline with 50 aircraft is certainly realistic.

Yes the Deluce family have made some brilliant moves to ensure solvency and were pretty much debt-free save for the financing on their 3 newest Dash 8s. They're about to enter the big leagues...but at least they maintain the near-monopoly at YTZ to help shield them a bit.

With Porter NG, Flair, Lynx, WS & flanker brand + waiting with bated breath for the Sunwing takeover blessing, oh plus Jokelines, get the popcorn ready for the show. First time since the mid-80s it's been this interesting in Canadian aviation.

I the 90s I was regularly traveling between Vancouver and Ottawa.

There was always an early morning departure with AC on a A319/320 and at about the same time a Canadian Airlines with a 737 or A320. Unless it was the Christmas rush you cold always get a free middle seat. That made for a very pleasant trip.

AC then had a mid-day DC-9 that did YVR-YWG-YOW. That was always full, you would at least get a hot meal on each leg in economy.

There would then be a late afternoon/evening AC and Canadian A320/737 flight. Again you could usually get an empty middle seat next to you.

Given how the population has grown at both ends there should be room on that route for both WestJet and AC.