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M II A II R II K Aug 23, 2019 6:05 PM

The Fastest-Growing U.S. Cities Aren’t What You Think
 
The Fastest-Growing U.S. Cities Aren’t What You Think


AUG 21, 2019

By RICHARD FLORIDA

Read More: https://www.citylab.com/life/2019/08...ata-us/596485/

Quote:

When it comes to the economic status of cities, there is no shortage of conflicting messages—and conflicting facts. On the one hand, we hear about the dominance of superstar cities and tech hubs in the competition for talented workers, high-end knowledge jobs, and high-tech startups. On the other hand, Sunbelt cities continue to lead in the growth of population and jobs in general.

- The reality is that most studies that purport to talk about cities are really talking about the performance of broader metropolitan areas, which are made of up core or principal cities and their surrounding suburbs and exurbs. Looking at cities by themselves is important and useful for several reasons. — For one, there is lots of talk these days about urban revitalization, the comeback of cities, and urban gentrification. But all of this is likely very uneven across U.S. cities, shaped by the same winner-take-all pattern that we see for metro areas. Some cities have bounced back and are experiencing growth in population and jobs, and in key dimensions of talent like college graduates and the creative class. But others continue to struggle and lose ground, whether to other cities or their own suburbs.

- While cities are parts large parts of metro regions, it is not necessarily the case that they closely follow the performance of their metros. Some cities may perform much better, others worse. This series dives into an aspect of contemporary urbanism that has been under-examined, the economic performance of America’s largest cities. To get at this, I worked with a team of researchers to analyze the economic performance of American’s 50 largest core or principal cities over the five-year period of 2012 to 2017. — Economist Todd Gabe crunched the numbers, using the U.S. Census’s American Community Survey to chart cities’ performance on factors including population growth, employment growth, growth in college grads, and the creative class, as well as how they stack up on economic inequality, housing affordability, and other indicators of what I call the “new urban crisis.”

- The overall, broad trend conforms to the popular image of a growing Sunbelt and declining “Frost Belt” of cold-weather cities. However, the most rapidly growing large cities are not sprawling, unregulated Sunbelt ones (such as Houston), but two relatively expensive tech hubs, anchored by leading research universities Seattle and Austin. Denver, Washington, D.C., and Raleigh also make the top 10. Miami comes fourth, and Fort Worth, Charlotte, Mesa, Arizona, and Omaha round out the list. — Nashville, which ranks first among metros with 15.7 percent growth, scrapes only 24th on the cities list, with 6.9 percent growth. Dallas comes seventh for metros (11.3 percent growth), but 15th for cities (8.1 percent growth). Houston ranks eighth for metros but 23rd for cities; Las Vegas, tenth for metros and 16th for cities. Two Midwest metros, Columbus and Indianapolis, but not those cities proper rank among the top 10 for population growth.

- Leading tech hubs and superstar cities actually appear far down the growing-cities list. Boston is 21st and and San Francisco 22nd, both with around 7 percent growth. L.A. is 34th, with 3.7 percent growth; New York, 35th, with 3.4 percent growth. When it comes to slow-growing cities (the right side of the chart), Detroit, Baltimore, Milwaukee, and Memphis have lost population; Chicago has barely held constant. Southern and Western cities round out this group: Long Beach, California, Albuquerque, Virginia Beach, Wichita, and El Paso. There is more overlap between declining cities and declining metros. Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, and Memphis show up on both lists. The slow-growing cities of St. Louis, Buffalo, and Cleveland also show up on the list of the 10 slowest-growing metros.

- There is significant overlap between this fastest-growing list and metros with the fastest job growth. Five places rank in the top 10 on both: Atlanta, Nashville, Austin, Raleigh, and Denver. (Charlotte would, too, if we did not exclude it because of changes to its metro boundaries.) A number of Sunbelt cities appear further down the fastest-growing cities list: Las Vegas at 12th; Dallas at 20th; Houston at 40th. — Again, superstar cities and leading tech hubs appear very low here. New York is 36th, with 9.1 percent growth. (Detroit actually does better, ranking 28th with 13.7 percent growth.) L.A. is 26th with 14 percent growth; Boston is 23rd (15 percent), and San Francisco is 15th (17 percent).

- The slowest-growing cities for jobs (above right) are a mixed bag, with some interesting contrasts. Milwaukee is the only canonical Rust Belt city to make the list, in ninth place. Memphis is second and Baltimore, which is often lumped in with the Rust Belt but is on the East Coast’s Acela Corridor, is tenth. — Tulsa tops the slow list what’s interesting about that is that nearby Oklahoma City is one of the nation’s fastest-growing cities in terms of population. Likewise, Arlington, Texas, has the fourth-slowest job growth; compare this to nearby Fort Worth, with the third-best job growth. Indianapolis, typically thought of alongside Columbus as a success story, actually numbers among the 10 slowest cities on job growth, as do Tucson and Virginia Beach in the Sunbelt.

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uaarkson Aug 23, 2019 6:56 PM

Baltimore part of the Rust Belt? Give me a fucking break

Steely Dan Aug 23, 2019 7:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uaarkson (Post 8667562)
Baltimore part of the Rust Belt? Give me a fucking break

well chicago is apparently "east coast" now, so i guess anything can be anything ;)

"welcome to miami, the finest city in the pacific northwest!"

LA21st Aug 23, 2019 7:18 PM

Meh, percentages will always favor the smaller cities. NYC , LA or SF would have to be adding insane numbers to show up in the top categories here.

202_Cyclist Aug 23, 2019 7:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan (Post 8667569)
well chicago is apparently "east coast" now, so i guess anything can be anything ;)

"welcome to miami, the finest city in the pacific northwest!"

This makes perfect sense. It explains how Atlanta was in the NL West for many years.

Labtec Aug 23, 2019 7:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 202_Cyclist (Post 8667598)
This makes perfect sense. It explains how Atlanta was in the NL West for many years.

And the Falcons in the NFC West for many years.

iheartthed Aug 23, 2019 7:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Labtec (Post 8667606)
And the Falcons in the NFC West for many years.

And the Cowboys in the NFC East.

Obadno Aug 23, 2019 7:36 PM

Mesa ???? Really? This makes em question how this number is calculated.

its a massive suburb of 400+ thousand people so there are lots of people and businesses who don't even identify as "mesa" residents just suburban phoenix residence/offices.

Sun Belt Aug 23, 2019 7:45 PM

What a surprise! - cities in the West and the South are growing faster than other regions.

M II A II R II K Aug 23, 2019 7:55 PM

https://www.citylab.com/life/2019/08...ree-us/596509/

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mousquet Aug 23, 2019 8:25 PM

Those Detroit figures are completely backward precisely because they are called a 'Motor City', when the current economy goes so diverse that it gets the establishment itself completely freaked out.

Just listen to their news. They would tell you about "n'importe quoi" (totally silly things), like robots and AI would get your butt unemployed while we've never seen anything like it so far.
At least, not on the short term and as far as AI goes, I doubt it would ever be the case, because most programers and matheticians who master it are gifted with some real ethics and would never kill humans.
I said it already, South Korea and Germany are the most robotized developed societies, and humans are doing rather fine in both countries.
Not all of us are Google with any creepy "human enhancement" plan - that would go to the rich exclusively, guys, not to you - or any nasty monopoly of that kind, thankfully.

Just every single city of the Western world has to go diverse, flexible and skilled in every respect, or it dies.
That's just all I read in our media specialized in the global economy.

muertecaza Aug 23, 2019 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Obadno (Post 8667613)
Mesa ???? Really? This makes em question how this number is calculated.

its a massive suburb of 400+ thousand people so there are lots of people and businesses who don't even identify as "mesa" residents just suburban phoenix residence/offices.

Mesa baby! My hometown. Numbers are from the ACS, so likely to be as good of information as we're likely to get.

It is funny though to see Mesa on lists like this, and shows the limits of how useful these types of lists can be. Mesa is now the 35th most populous city in the country, with over 500k people, and by my count the most populous suburb in the country. While there has been a little bit of infill here and there, most of that population growth is the never-ending march eastward into newly incorporated desert land. And I'm not aware of any truly notable employers that are contributing to the jobs numbers. The only top employer of note in Mesa is Boeing, and the rest of the top employers in Mesa are schools, government, Walmart, Home Depot, Kroger, and the local healthcare conglomerate Banner. Mesa is not an economic superstar that is outpacing Phoenix metro, as indicated by the fact that Mesa is on both the fastest jobs growth list, and the slowest adults with graduate degrees growth list.

Zapatan Aug 24, 2019 3:53 PM

Hey according to this Chicago isn't shrinking, that's nice...

iheartthed Aug 24, 2019 4:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mousquet (Post 8667659)
Those Detroit figures are completely backward precisely because they are called a 'Motor City', when the current economy goes so diverse that it gets the establishment itself completely freaked out.

Just listen to their news. They would tell you about "n'importe quoi" (totally silly things), like robots and AI would get your butt unemployed while we've never seen anything like it so far.
At least, not on the short term and as far as AI goes, I doubt it would ever be the case, because most programers and matheticians who master it are gifted with some real ethics and would never kill humans.
I said it already, South Korea and Germany are the most robotized developed societies, and humans are doing rather fine in both countries.
Not all of us are Google with any creepy "human enhancement" plan - that would go to the rich exclusively, guys, not to you - or any nasty monopoly of that kind, thankfully.

Just every single city of the Western world has to go diverse, flexible and skilled in every respect, or it dies.
That's just all I read in our media specialized in the global economy.

This is mixing up the stats of metropolitan areas and central cities, along with a few other misunderstandings. First, the stats talk about employment at the metropolitan level, then dives down into education stats of the central city. This doesn't say what you think it does. Like all major cities, Detroit is home to the poorest and least educated of its home region, but, unlike other cities, very few of the richest and most highly educated. So, this is actually a statement about segregation and isolation of poverty, and not some macro economic statement about Metro Detroit.

Second, the auto industry is not as big of a factor in the city of Detroit as people who don't know better would think. In fact, no automaker even makes the top 5 employers in the city of Detroit. To go even further, the largest employer in Detroit, Rock Ventures (Dan Gilbert), employs more people in the city of Detroit than Chrysler and General Motors combined. And GM is the only automaker that is actually HQed in the city of Detroit.

https://www.michigancapitolconfident...loyers2015.jpg

source: https://www.michigancapitolconfidential.com/22580

To contrast, the top largest employers in Metro Detroit are Ford, GM, Chrysler, the Detroit Public Schools, and Rock Ventures. Ford does not even crack the top 10 of employers in the city of Detroit, even though the company employs almost 100,000 people in Metro Detroit (and is the largest private employer in Metro Detroit). GM also employs nearly 100k in Metro Detroit, but only has just about 6k employees in the city of Detroit itself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econom...olitan_Detroit

About a decade ago, the city of Detroit itself was by far the largest employer in Detroit. Austerity measures drastically reduced the size of city government, and many of those workers were residents of the city. That hardly ever gets analyzed.

jg6544 Aug 24, 2019 7:59 PM

Don't count lawyers in with people with other kinds of post-graduate degrees and that stat. for DC would be minuscule!

craigs Aug 25, 2019 8:31 PM

It wasn't all that long ago when there were no cities where half or more of the population had earned a bachelor's degree. Now there are several.

Fresh Aug 25, 2019 10:59 PM

What's happening in Omaha? Doesn't strike me as a city that would be that high on the growth list.

CVG Aug 25, 2019 11:37 PM

Annexation, which is why city studies are pretty useless.

Omaharocks Aug 25, 2019 11:40 PM

^ Well, the #'s shown here don't really match with actual census growth rates in Omaha (which tend to show consistent moderate growth). They cite the census as their source, which of course can't be the case since it's 2012-2017 data...(assuming they are using ACS)

I find it very unlikely the growth rate for Omaha during that period is the same as Charlotte.

llamaorama Aug 26, 2019 1:35 AM

Omaha seems pretty successful for a small city in a forgotten part of the country. It has some pretty major companies and is surprisingly wealthy.


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