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thenoflyzone Oct 23, 2020 11:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alexcaban (Post 9083610)
Air Canada has quietly added YYZ-DOH starting Dec 15

AC58/59 B787-9

Codesharing - or at the very least an interline agreement - with QR is a must here, as O&D is non existent. They are banking on selling beyond flights to South Asia. The only problem is, they wont be able to do that to India due to the travel bubbles. However, Pakistani destinations are bookable via DOH.

Its very unusual to see AC feed a competitor's hub like this with little to no O&D. Goes to show the dire times the industry is in. Any hint of revenue, and airlines are willing to start routes that would have been unthinkable before COVID.

hollywoodcory Oct 24, 2020 12:20 AM

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-d...source=twitter

WS / DL joint venture has been tentatively approved. There’s conditions like Swoop can’t be a part of it. They have to divest LGA slots, and a few more.

thenoflyzone Oct 24, 2020 12:38 AM

I think you meant to say that Swoop can’t be a part of it.

hollywoodcory Oct 24, 2020 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9083786)
I think you meant to say that Swoop can’t be a part of it.

Yes that’s what I meant. Damn autocorrect. Thanks!

thenoflyzone Oct 24, 2020 7:24 AM

Icelandair has readded YUL and YVR to their program for next summer. Flights are bookable. Nothing for YEG and YHZ so far. I guess they're waiting for the Canadian flight restrictions to be lifted first.

https://www.icelandair.com/blog/icel...schedule-2021/

Dominion301 Oct 24, 2020 3:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9083738)
Codesharing - or at the very least an interline agreement - with QR is a must here, as O&D is non existent. They are banking on selling beyond flights to South Asia. The only problem is, they wont be able to do that to India due to the travel bubbles. However, Pakistani destinations are bookable via DOH.

Its very unusual to see AC feed a competitor's hub like this with little to no O&D. Goes to show the dire times the industry is in. Any hint of revenue, and airlines are willing to start routes that would have been unthinkable before COVID.

What’s the frequency of this new route? This will carry very little (at least in the first few months) in terms of pax. You’ve got to think AC lined up a major cargo contract for this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9083976)
Icelandair has readded YUL and YVR to their program for next summer. Flights are bookable. Nothing for YEG and YHZ so far. I guess they're waiting for the Canadian flight restrictions to be lifted first.

https://www.icelandair.com/blog/icel...schedule-2021/

FI removed YHZ after the MAX grounding.

Dominion301 Oct 24, 2020 3:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory (Post 9083775)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-d...source=twitter

WS / DL joint venture has been tentatively approved. There’s conditions like Swoop can’t be a part of it. They have to divest LGA slots, and a few more.

16 LGA slots = WS’ entire portfolio of 8 and 8 more from DL.

thenoflyzone Oct 24, 2020 6:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9084112)
16 LGA slots = WS’ entire portfolio of 8 and 8 more from DL.

Assuming it’s split evenly. It most likely won’t be. WS will not exit LGA because of this, I can guarantee you that much. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see DL give up all 16 slots at LGA.

btw, WS has 16 slots (8 slot pairs) at LGA, not 8.

thenoflyzone Oct 24, 2020 6:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9084108)
What’s the frequency of this new route? This will carry very little (at least in the first few months) in terms of pax. You’ve got to think AC lined up a major cargo contract for this.

It’s 3x weekly. And it’s more than just about cargo. Canada-South Asia traffic is what they are after here.

nname Oct 24, 2020 8:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9084264)
It’s 3x weekly. And it’s more than just about cargo. Canada-South Asia traffic is what they are after here.

It depends. AC stated during the quarterly meeting that their HKG routes is more about cargo than passengers. If they are going to fly empty planes for cargo anyways, why not take some passengers?

Also, rumor on Airliners that QR had been granted service to YYZ and YVR and could start as early as next Summer. Maybe AC just want to beat them to add service from their YYZ hub first? I don't believe this is true, but we'll see....

thenoflyzone Oct 25, 2020 12:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 9084336)
It depends. AC stated during the quarterly meeting that their HKG routes is more about cargo than passengers. If they are going to fly empty planes for cargo anyways, why not take some passengers?

Also, rumor on Airliners that QR had been granted service to YYZ and YVR and could start as early as next Summer. Maybe AC just want to beat them to add service from their YYZ hub first? I don't believe this is true, but we'll see....

Initial Canada-Qatar bilateral signed in 2010 restricted an airline to a maximum of 3 flights per week to any 2 points in Canada, with a maximum capacity of 335 seats per flight.

QR started 3x weekly YUL service in 2011.

The seat cap was increase in 2016 to 412 seats and more codesharing was allowed in January 2018.

Since then, there have been 2 expansions to the Canada-Qatar bilateral.

The first expansion was in November 2018, where the rights increased to a maximum of 4x weekly.

QR utilized this extra frequency on YUL.

https://www.qatarairways.com/content...iew_CANADA.PDF

The second came in January 2019. The official government press release only mentions extra frequency. We don't know how many, but it's safe to say it is only 1x weekly more, considering that was all they got 1 year before.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...805665859.html

No other expansions have been announced. Knowing all of this, I would find it very surprising if QR is able to start YYZ or YVR with any meaningful service in summer 2021.

I don't think they intend to cancel YUL in order to start YYZ/YVR either. When the pandemic hit, QR was serving over 170 destinations. They retrenched to 35 or so destinations during the worse months, and YUL was one of the routes they kept.

thenoflyzone Oct 25, 2020 6:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 9084336)
It depends. AC stated during the quarterly meeting that their HKG routes is more about cargo than passengers. If they are going to fly empty planes for cargo anyways, why not take some passengers?

Also, rumor on Airliners that QR had been granted service to YYZ and YVR and could start as early as next Summer. Maybe AC just want to beat them to add service from their YYZ hub first? I don't believe this is true, but we'll see....

Also, in the same quarterly meeting call, AC did mention that booking trends are pointing towards leisure traffic and VFR, which are bouncing back quicker than business traffic.

Canada-South Asia, especially the likes of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, are pretty big VFR markets.

Quoting Lucie Germette, Air Canada EVP and CCO:

Quote:

But by and large, the vast majority of the content is, in fact, leisure traffic and VFR as well. On the international markets, the markets that we have introduced, we did launch those because we felt that there was more VFR potential, particularly on the Transatlantic market.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/436...all-transcript

This is why AC was so quick to bring back YYZ-DEL and soon BOM, as well as YVR-DEL.

Also why BA and VS were so quick to jump on UK-Pakistan, now that PK has been banned from Europe.

Everyone is turning towards leisure and VFR flights.

casper Oct 25, 2020 6:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9084571)
Also, in the same quarterly meeting call, AC did mention that booking trends are pointing towards leisure traffic and VFR, which are bouncing back quicker than business traffic.

Canada-South Asia, especially the likes of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, are pretty big VFR markets.

Quoting Lucie Germette, Air Canada EVP and CCO:



https://seekingalpha.com/article/436...all-transcript

This is why AC was so quick to bring back YYZ-DEL and soon BOM, as well as YVR-DEL.

Also why BA and VS were so quick to jump on UK-Pakistan, now that PK has been banned from Europe.

Everyone is turning towards leisure and VFR flights.

What is weird about all this is historically WS has had a stronger focus on VFR and leisure than AC . Yet WS can't figure out how to grow suitable destinations for its Dreamliners while AC can find new destinations with effectively the same aircraft. The only real difference between the AC and WS 787 is WestJet aircraft seating configuration is more optimized for the VFR/Leisure market.

All quite interesting.

thenoflyzone Oct 25, 2020 7:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper (Post 9084572)
What is weird about all this is historically WS has had a stronger focus on VFR and leisure than AC . Yet WS can't figure out how to grow suitable destinations for its Dreamliners while AC can find new destinations with effectively the same aircraft. The only real difference between the AC and WS 787 is WestJet aircraft seating configuration is more optimized for the VFR/Leisure market.

All quite interesting.

To my knowledge, DOH is the first new international route AC is launching during COVID. All the leisure and VFR flights AC operated this summer were already served before.

ATH, FCO, DEL etc...

By contrast, WS is non existent on the long haul scene outside of England and more recently, France. FCO would have been a perfect VFR route, but not out of YYC.

Another issue is flight rights.

Dont think WS has applied to the CTA for rights on Canada-India, for example. So without that approval first, they cant really launch that route, or take advantage of the travel bubble with India.

thenoflyzone Oct 25, 2020 7:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9084108)
What’s the frequency of this new route? This will carry very little (at least in the first few months) in terms of pax. You’ve got to think AC lined up a major cargo contract for this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname (Post 9084336)
It depends. AC stated during the quarterly meeting that their HKG routes is more about cargo than passengers.

Firstly, if this route was about cargo, they wouldn't be using a B787. They'd be using a B77W.

Second, according to AC's very own vice-president of cargo, Tim Strauss, speaking about cargo in May 2020:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...heir-business/

Quote:

And they’ll never replace passengers, which Mr. Strauss said usually brings in at least five times as much revenue a kilogram as cargo does.
Thirdly, according to a travel agent/consultant over on flyertalk, AC sent them a memo about the new route, which states:

Quote:

Today we’ve introduced non-stop flights from Toronto to Doha*.

Subject to government approval, we will be flying three times weeky, starting December 15, 2020 onboard our Boeing 787-9 Dreamline featuring three classes of service: Signature, Premium Economy, and Economy class service.

Flights are timed to optimize connections through both our Toronto global hub across North America to Doha offering customers to visit family to key markets beyond Doha*.


Flight schedule from Toronto to Doha**:



Visit our website to book now.

* Connection flights beyond Doha operated by Qatar Airways. ​​​​​​
​​​​** All flights subject to government approval.
This flight is about tapping into Canada-South Asia demand, namely Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, etc.

QR flies to all these destinations, and more. The European carrier partners of AC dont. Hence why launching DOH makes sense here.

Dominion301 Oct 25, 2020 2:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone (Post 9084264)
It’s 3x weekly. And it’s more than just about cargo. Canada-South Asia traffic is what they are after here.

Apologies if what I said wasn’t clear. I was alluding to this will initially be mostly cargo. You don’t load a new long-haul flight 8 weeks from the launch date in a global pandemic and expect to get 80% pax loads right off the bat. That’s why I said AC must have some cargo contracts lined up for this to launch so close in. In normal times airlines typically announce a new route that crosses an ocean at least 6 months in advance. Obviously the route is not sustainable primarily on cargo alone in the long-term.

thenoflyzone Oct 25, 2020 2:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9084641)
Apologies if what I said wasn’t clear. I was alluding to this will initially be mostly cargo. You don’t load a new long-haul flight 8 weeks from the launch date in a global pandemic and expect to get 80% pax loads right off the bat. That’s why I said AC must have some cargo contracts lined up for this to launch so close in. In normal times airlines typically announce a new route that crosses an ocean at least 6 months in advance. Obviously the route is not sustainable primarily on cargo alone in the long-term.

8 weeks is more than enough notice in this COVID era (let's not forget QR launched YYZ in July with a few days notice ! Granted, not by choice, as they were probably awaiting for the extra-bilateral approval by the Canadian government). People aren't booking flights several months in advance like they used to, by fear of flights being cancelled.

Plus Canada-South Asia demand is at it's peak in the winter season (Oct to March). AC didn't want to miss the boat.

Don't get me wrong, at first I was scratching my head at this new route as well. But when you sit down and think about it, it all makes sense in this COVID era.

whatnext Oct 25, 2020 3:30 PM

Somebody is making a play for Chorus Aviation aka Jazz aka AC Express.

Chorus Aviation shares surge 34% amid takeover interest

Djeffery Oct 25, 2020 5:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext (Post 9084676)
Somebody is making a play for Chorus Aviation aka Jazz aka AC Express.

Chorus Aviation shares surge 34% amid takeover interest

Maybe Air Canada itself is looking for a deal with the money they are saving on Transat?

rbt Oct 25, 2020 6:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Djeffery (Post 9084797)
Maybe Air Canada itself is looking for a deal with the money they are saving on Transat?

Unlikely; AC is not exactly cash-rich at the moment.


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