Statistics Canada Reports II
 

This thread is a continuation of the previous thread. Please proceed.

Edit: Tools we are using in this thread:

Polygon Density finder (Maps.ie): https://www.maps.ie/population/

Archived previous thread here:

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=213258

What's going on with the Stats Can population clock? It hasn't been working for the last 7-10 days.

If the GTA (currently ~7,500,000) grows by 1% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 9,811,567 people. If the GTA grows by 2% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 11,948,205 people. If the GTA grows by 3% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 16,659,668 people.

Okotoks, with a current 3.34% year over year population growth, will grow from 36,338 today to 25,944,928 by 2223.
Woot woot!!

Will there be even more things to do in Okotoks at that point, or, simply still a number of things to do???? :)

What will come first, Austin eclipsing NYC, or Okotoks (as its own CMA distinct from Calgary) eclipsing the GTA?

Okotoks elipsing NYC!

https://media0.giphy.com/media/jpNuN...=200w.gif&ct=g

And for sure there will be a number of things to do.

As long as they can all be done standing up.

Otokok's will reign supreme for the number of things to do will make them the happiest, most productive metro region of all time. :yes: :tup:

In all seriousness, it seems like a fairly big town/city.

The real question is which is better - Okotoks or Airdrie.

For a real twist - how about East Gwillimbury? With an annual growth rate between 2016 and 2021 of 8.8%, by 2050 it'll have a population of 408,000 and by 2100 a population of over 28 million! By 2223, a population of over 1 billion people! Even more things to do than Okotoks!

I noticed that too. Every quarter they adjust the numbers and change the estimates on the graphs, but this is an unusual stoppage. The time clock is running but no numbers. Maybe has something to do with the big under counting of temporary residents earlier this year.

What about Milton?

Currently at 132,000 people -- there was a 71.4% increase from 2001 to 2006 and a 56.5% increase from 2006 to 2011. Slowed down since, but let's get it back to those growth numbers and kick Ocotoks's ass!

100% Okotoks. It actually has a quaint old town mainstreet with some nice historic buildings and a beautiful river valley. Airdrie is just a suburb with no historic stock, a highway dividing it and a giant ugly water tower from Mars.

Okotoks has been surpassed by the much faster growing Cochrane, west of Calgary. Only difference is that Cochrane is part of the Calgary CMA, while Okotoks soon will be.


Stats Canada, Population estimates, July 1, by census subdivision, 2016 boundaries

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20220101

Unless there is a major reworking of current boundaries, Okotoks will NEVER be part of the Calgary CMA.

A CMA must be a continuous urban environment and between Okotoks and Calgary is a small section of Foot Hills MD which is not subdivided into towns but surrounds several ie OK/HR. This means that to include OK, the CMA must include all of Foot Hills MD which is a truly massive 3600 km2.

Damn rights. Calgary will become part of Okotoks.

Ya, that's exactly what I was thinking. When the big banks state that the numbers are grossly undercount, it lowers the credibility of the pop clock itself and even quarterly pop estimates.

It's likely that Foothills MD will be added to the Calgary CMA too. Currently the Calgary CMA boundary ends at the southern City limits. That doesn't make much sense.

Land area comparison of CMAs with similar population:
Ottawa: 8047 km2
Calgary: 5099 km2
Edmonton: 9416 km2

Land area of the province of PEI - 5,660 km² :)

Ottawa's city limits are absurd. Driving northbound on the 416, you see this sign "Ottawa: Canada's capital. Population 1,000,000". Twenty minutes of more driving, and it is still trees and fields. If it were a bit larger, it could take in Okotoks.

It is indeed rather strange that Calgary's CMA is so small geographically. I didn't realize that the Saskatoon CMA had a larger footprint than Calgary's at 5,864 km2. There should be no justification for that.

Even with that, Ottawa's CMA border actually extends beyond it's city limits on all sides, incorporating Rockland, Embrun, Kemptville, Carleton Place, Almonte, and Arnprior.

Carleton Place and Arnprior aren't in the Ottawa CMA. Actually all of those places are just outside the CMA.

Carleton Place, Arnprior, and Almonte were added to the CMA in 2021. Kemptville was added in 2016. Rockland, Embrun, and Russell have been in the CMA since at least the 1990s IIRC.

The addition of Carleton Place, Almonte, and Arnprior is actually why Ottawa-Gatineau retook 4th place from Calgary in 2021. Using the 2016 borders, Calgary would still be bigger.

The fact that it took until 2021 for these places to be added to the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA despite the fact they've been bedroom communities of Ottawa for decades is because of a methodology quirk. At least half the workforce of a municipality has to work in the CMA's central urban area to be included. And because of Ottawa's Greenbelt, Kanata is not counted as part of the central urban area, so all the people from Carleton Place, Almonte, and Arnprior that commute to the Kanata North high tech park are not factored in.

Population clock is now working.

The estimates have been significantly changed.

Yukon now has a larger population than the Northwest Territories! 45,216 vs 45,214. :eek:

Not often you see one geographic territory surpass another one...........

Both NB and PEI somehow misplaced about 5,000 people each. NS is not significantly changed.

Yukon is ahead of NWT by 3 people now. Okotokian-style growth!

My apologies, I didn't know.

The CMA is crazy massive. It is even creeping close to Cornwall..

It's conceivable StatsCan didn't know the population clock wasn't working. I sent them an email at the end of the workday yesterday to apprise them of the situation, and they actually emailed me back today, thanking me for bringing it to their attention, and stating that the clock was now working normally.

The guy responsible probably works from home....anyway it looks like Alberta is farther behind BC than before, AB looked to be making significant gains.

Mostly unrelated but I once knew the guy who took care of Canada's atomic clock that is the official source of time, at the National Research Council of Canada. He took his job very seriously and I doubt he would ever have let it lapse in any way.

Atomic clock? Isn't that just a clock at taco bell?

yep, guaranteed diarrhea 1 hour after consuming Taco Hell's mystery meat.

Calgary has a unicity model meant to try and discourage exurban growth. Nothing can stop Okotoks though!!!

Surprised Cochrane is now part of the CMA as it is quite far from the city limits. About equal distance as Okotoks actually.

The boom and bust cycles will make it so Alberta will never really pass BC in our lifetimes. Every few years we get the projections and they always seem to get walked back.

BC is going to end up as Alberta's port colony.

Land costs are going to make it so.

The difference is not negligible.

Here is my screen shot from April 2023.

https://a4.pbase.com/o12/52/479852/1...pril192023.jpg


The difference between BC and Alberta then was 737,634, now it has increased to 824,733.

By statcan estimates, BC grew by 135,000 in 6 months. At that rate, BC should* reach 6 million by Q3 2025.

*obviously these are inflated estimates and census counts always come out well below but still exciting times considering how fucking expensive it is here!

It is now almost precisely six months from your screen shot. Here are the current estimates from today:

CANADA - 40,438,308 (+619,325)

NL - 540,557 (+7,263)
PE - 175,978 (-261)
NS - 1,068,960 (+24,593)
NB - 843,284 (+12,935)
QC - 8,934,412 (+119,937)
ON - 15,745,247 (+239,690)
MB - 1,466,797 (+30,599)
SK - 1,219,112 (-698)
AB - 4,743,961 (+48,570)
BC - 5,568,688 (+135,663)
YK - 45,217 (+874)
NT - 45,215 (+118)
NU - 40,880 (+42)

Of course, these are revised estimates, and, should be taken with a grain of salt, but, annualized, Canada is on track to grow by roughly 1,240,000 people this year!!! :eek:

NS may pass SK in population sometime by the end of the decade. I am making no firm predictions just because we are dealing with revised estimates.

I use copious amounts of salt with my facts, sometimes numbers DO lie. :rolleyes:

Well, that's a narrative buster.

I noticed that before the Pop Clock stall, Alberta was at about 4,811,000 and is now 70K less which would result in Alberta being one of the slowest growing provinces. The chances of that are zero so something is REALLY wrong with these new Alberta numbers.

Maybe it's the Libs tampering with the system, that will reverse when the Conservatives take over. ;)

Architype's screenshot is from before it stalled, and it was at 4.7 million then.

In any case, the population clock is just a data visualization tool that uses information from the most recent population estimates to show the current population. It is updated quarterly as new quarterly population estimates are released. You can review the data and see that at no point since the 1980s has Alberta been losing population.

I’m thinking a lot of the discrepancies are possibly because the population clock was adjusted using the 2021 census. The latest quarterly population estimates released in September were the first estimate using the 2021 census.

There are now five more people in the YT than the NT. This horserace is over!!! :)

Possible, but I probably wouldn't bet on it. (Even though as an east coaster I'd love to see our largest province bigger than the prairies' smallest!)

Saskatchewan had 195,000 more people than NS five years ago. Now, according to both the Q3 estimates and this new population clock data, it has about 150,000 more. But it in the past year SK's formerly sluggish growth has picked up again. NS is still growing faster, but the discrepancy would have to grow much more (i.e., NS pick up even further, and SK slow down again) for them to swap places anytime soon.

I think probably NS will continue to gain, but how fast is up in the air.

For years we've been hearing about the boom in Saskatchewan, and how Moe is some economic sage, but the population has barely budged.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...20070528013010

Your graph ends in 2005, when the boom started.

Saskatchewan hit 920,000 in 1931, fell down to 830,000 in 1951, and has shuffled between 925,000 and 1,000,000 between 1961 and 2006.

If the graph extends

2001 - 978,000
2006 - 985,000
2011 - 1,053,000
2016 - 1,098,000
2021 - 1,132,000
2023 (Jul 1 Estimate) - 1,209,000


Now, I'm the last one to say anything nice about Moe.

But Saskatchewan was basically stuck at the same population for 75 years. We hit our all time high in 2011, and have grown by 175,000 since then.

https://i.imgur.com/Kn1ljiz.png

Who is saying that Moe is an economic sage? He is a glassy-eyed buffoon content to leave things on autopilot (stop signs be damned) -- except, of course, when it comes to recalling the legislature to invoke the notwithstanding clause. Him and the rest of his clown car cabinet.

Frankly, I don't blame anyone for leaving. Our government is an utter embarrassment that deserves to witness sustained outmigration as a testament to its dereliction of duty to its citizens.

SK has transformed quite substantially in the last 20 years, from a perennial basketcase to a prosperous place. Maritimes are in the middle of that switch now. It's a good thing - makes for a much healthier federation when there isn't just a handful of provinces carrying all the weight.