SkyscraperPage Forum - 2021 Census: The NCR re-overtakes Calgary for 4th Largest CMA

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2021 Census: The NCR re-overtakes Calgary for 4th Largest CMA

This isn't surprising. Ottawa has grown substantially in the past five years while Calgary's oil economy has struggled.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cen...ties-1.6344179

Quote:

The three other Canadian CMAs with a population over one million in 2021 are: Ottawa–Gatineau at 1,488,307, marking a rise to fourth place again after temporarily losing that title in 2016 to Calgary; Calgary, which now has a population of 1,481,806; and Edmonton, with a population of 1,418,118.

In raw numbers here is the change in population for Canada's six CMAs with a population over 1 million:
Toronto: +274,185
Montreal: +192,805
Vancouver: +179,394
Ottawa: +164,524
Calgary: +100,461
Edmonton: +118,506

According to Fox News, there are 1.5 million occupiers in Ottawa. So at 3 million, we've actually overtaken Vancouver.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aylmer (Post 9531622)

According to Fox News, there are 1.5 million occupiers in Ottawa. So at 3 million, we've actually overtaken Vancouver.

How are they allowed to exist?

Quote:

Originally Posted by J.OT13 (Post 9531641)

How are they allowed to exist?

Are you referring to Fox News, Ottawa or Vancouver being allowed to exist:cheers::cheers::cheers:

For many, Fox News is the only mainstream beacon of truth. Others find it just a waste of bandwidth and are glad it isn't available on their cable/satellite package.

Maybe an admin can move the census conversation simultaneously happening in the General Update/Rumour thread over to this thread. Also, the title is incorrect for this thread. Ottawa did not re-overtake Calgary. It just regained 4th. Re-overtaking would imply it overtook Calgary more than once, when in reality it was always larger than Calgary, except for a brief overtake by Calgary in the last census. :nerd:

More numbers in the central core:

Downtown: 15.5%
Centretown: 8.6%
Lowertown: 5.2% (but that will shoot way up once the Rideau towers are all completed)
Island of Hull: 20.3%
Old Ottawa East: 20.9%
Mechanicsville: 10.1%
Glebe: 3.1%

Pretty much everything in pre-war Ottawa gained a decent amount of population.

Meanwhile, central Montreal has either decreased, or gained very little, with a few exceptions. Same with Quebec City.

Toronto is a mixed bag, with huge gains and huge loses in the central area.

We can really see that Ottawa's policies encourage growth in streetcar suburbs in the core compared to Toronto and Montreal.

Before criticizing the Glebe's respectable 3.1%, check out the huge loses in similar Toronto areas.

Quote:

Originally Posted by J.OT13 (Post 9531674)

As you point out, at the neighbourhood level, a couple of projects can make a massive difference. At 1.5 people per unit, you need about 80 new units in a neighbourhood of 12,000 to grow by 1%. A project like Lansdowne or Royale would change these neighbourhood numbers by approximately 3-4% all on their own.

My inner suburban area of Gatineau and all adjacent areas have declined slightly.

The area isn't actually in serious decline. It's just the reflection of households getting older, kids leaving home, and parents not selling off the family house just yet. 2 people living in houses that used to have 2 or 3 more people living in them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9531511)

This isn't surprising. Ottawa has grown substantially in the past five years while Calgary's oil economy has struggled.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cen...ties-1.6344179

Good. Calgary goes back where they belong. Fourth place was never available in the first place.

Quote:

Originally Posted by phil235 (Post 9531789)

Downtown +2277
Centretown +1067
Lowertown +673
Island of Hull +2051
Old Ottawa East +1083
Mechanicsville +935
Glebe +363 (Total Pop 11,922)

Other inner greenbelt areas:
Carlington West +535 (not near rapid transit)
Carlington East +1005 (12089 total pop)
Cityview +838
Bel-air +473
Alta-Vista +917 (Total pop 14,714)
Cityview/skyline/Fischer-Heights +365 (Not near rapid transit)
Borden farms/Fisher Glen +724 (not near rapid transit)

The Glebe grew 363 in five years even with "all" of that new development going on that the vocal minority have fought so hard. So, Lets look to the next 5 years for the Glebe to welcome 500 new neighbours, as it stands with its restrictive zoning of on average R3 in the neighbourhood it would take the conversion of 166 lots or 2.8% of all existing dwelling (Existing dwelling include apartments, condos, triplexes, duplexes, which i've been told the Glebe is already "full" of).

Map of the type of dwelling as of 2016, roughly 170 SFH in the area bounded by 417, lyon, glebe ave, and Percy.....

https://censusmapper.ca/maps/717#15/45.4023/-75.6977

Quote:

Originally Posted by Williamoforange (Post 9532820)

Downtown +2277
The Glebe grew 363 in five years even with "all" of that new development going on that the vocal minority have fought so hard. So, Lets look to the next 5 years for the Glebe to welcome 500 new neighbours, as it stands with its restrictive zoning of on average R3 in the neighbourhood it would take the conversion of 166 lots or 2.8% of all existing dwelling (Existing dwelling include apartments, condos, triplexes, duplexes, which i've been told the Glebe is already "full" of).

Map of the type of dwelling as of 2016, roughly 170 SFH in the area bounded by 417, lyon, glebe ave, and Percy.....

https://censusmapper.ca/maps/717#15/45.4023/-75.6977

Not sure that your target will be much of an issue. By my count there are at least 370 new units coming on line this year alone, between Minto, Amica and the Marabella on Pretoria. Katasa at Carling and Bronson is another 168 units under construction, so you've blown through 500 units just in large projects that are underway, with four years to go. That's roughly 800 new residents.

The two proposed towers on either side of Bank on Chamberlain and Isabella will give you another 300 units, and the proposed tower at Carling and Bronson pushes that to 500. And that's not counting the smaller infill projects like Monk and Fifth. (And as an aside, the community association is also pushing for additional affordable housing at Lansdowne, which itself consists of several hundred units that came on line just before the 5-year period that you are citing.) All told, this would result in a population increase of about 15% in 5 years.

I think most reasonable people would suggest that is quite a lot of development for a neighbourhood that is mostly built out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301 (Post 9531511)

This isn't surprising. Ottawa has grown substantially in the past five years while Calgary's oil economy has struggled.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cen...ties-1.6344179

You probably already know this, but in case people aren't aware, it's not necessarily due to the struggling oil economy, it's because the CMA for Ottawa has increased in area adding an extra 1,200 square kms. Calgary has actually grown by more people than Ottawa over the past 5 years using the previous boundaries. I'm not saying the Ottawa increase due to adding extra land isn't legit, only that it's not necessarily economy related, though the hit on oil and gas over the past 5 years would still be part of the reason. If Calgary's economy was doing better, they may have still held onto 4th place even with Ottawa's CMA area bump.

Not to through further gas on the fire, but for those gleefully celebrating Calgary's demotion 'back to where it belongs', they may be disappointed in 5 years or less. Even if the two cities grew at the same pace, Calgary is very close to adding Foothills MD, which would give Calgary an 80K boost. The commute rule statistics have been changing over the past 5 years, and the MD was narrowly missed to being added to Calgary's CMA this past census. It's likely going to be added next census.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aylmer (Post 9531622)

According to Fox News, there are 1.5 million occupiers in Ottawa. So at 3 million, we've actually overtaken Vancouver.

I don't know if I should LOL or scream, but good one. :tup:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stephen Ave (Post 9533600)

I did not know that. Thanks! :tup: Depending on where those 1,200 sq km are, it would either result in a 10-40K bump or a negligible bump. I haven't had the time to look.

The fact of the matter is, Calgary, Ottawa & Edmonton will no doubt continue to be cities/CMAs of roughly the same size for quite some time. The impact of remote working thanks to COVID-19 could also slow these cities.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stephen Ave (Post 9533600)

Well...not sure i agree. I think the stats canada CMA estimates based on 2016 boundaries overestimated growth in Calgary and Edmonton over the last few years...and underestimated growth for Ottawa....if we assume all had the typical of 2-3% undercount...that would suggest that the NCR Ottawa-Gatineau is well north of 1.5M (we'll find out later in the year) and Calgary / Edmonton are lower than recent estimates. Using 2021 boundaries, no doubt that the NCR gained 20k people from the inclusion of Arnprior and Carleton Place, which is legit ...if you drive out there and see how much new housing construction is going on with Ottawa residents moving out further to seek cheaper housing it's clear that these are new 'suburbs of ottawa'. If we fast forward five years from now...just as Calgary gains Foothills...one can expect Ottawa to gain Kemptville and Rockland at a minimum as folks look for the next fringe suburb to escape housing pricing affordability.

I've been posting on SSP for 16 years and every census the Calgary forumers complain about Ototoks and Foothills not being included in the CMA lol... One day!! :cheers:

Quote:

Originally Posted by sgera (Post 9533792)

Kemptville and Rockland (along with Embrun and Russell) are already part of the CMA. Kemptville was added in 2016, and Embrun/Russell/Rockland have been in since the 1990s.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stephen Ave (Post 9533600)

Why are Calgarians so insecure about their population? It seems very census people in Calgary go haywire one way or another over their population stats. I think 99% of people in Ottawa don't care whatsoever or even notice. Strange.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeoNerd (Post 9534268)

Because we are surrounded by hay bales instead of real people. What do you expect??

Not a fan of the metrics used to compare cities here. What's considered "Downtown Ottawa" is quite different from "Downtown" in other cites. And then they go by driving distance, which brings you to very different areas from one city to the next. If they also compared downtown neighbourhoods or streetcar suburbs, Ottawa would have an edge over many other cities.

Quote:

Ottawa-Gatineau regains spot as fourth-largest metro area in 2021 census

Bruce Deachman, Ottawa Citizen
Publishing date:Feb 09, 2022

“To me, this is an endorsement of what we’ve built in this city."

The population of Ottawa-Gatineau grew from 1,371,576 in 2016 to 1,488,307 last year, leap-frogging Calgary into fourth place among urban Canadian centres.

The new census figures, released Wednesday by Statistics Canada, show an 8.5 per cent population growth in the National Capital Region over the last five years, significantly higher than both the national rate of 5.2 per cent the 6.1 per cent growth among Canada’s 41 census metropolitan areas, or CMAs — those urban areas with populations of 100,000 or more.

Calgary, which in the 2016 census supplanted Ottawa-Gatineau as Canada’s fourth-largest metropolitan area, behind Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, fell back to fifth, with 1,481,806 residents.

“To me, this is an endorsement of what we’ve built in this city,” says David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data. “It’s the ultimate endorsement that people want to move here.

“People are choosing to come here, whether it’s for opportunities or quality of life or affordability. All three of those have to work together in tandem for that perfect opportunity for people to convert on.”

Overall, Canada’s population grew to just under 37 million — from 35,151,728 in 2016 to 36,991,981 last year.

According to Statistics Canada director Laurent Martel, that figure would have been higher but for the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The country went from a record high population growth in the first four years of the five-year period … and then we had a record low population growth in 2020, due of course to the pandemic, during which border restrictions were in effect and travelling was made more difficult.”

Martel noted that from 2016 to 2019, Canada’s population growth was increasing at record rates, reaching 1.6 per cent in 2019 before plummeting to 0.4 per cent in 2020, a low not seen since the First World War.

Among CMAs, meanwhile, Ottawa’s growth ranked 11th, with four B.C. cities — Kelowna, Chilliwack, Kamloops and Nanaimo — along with London, Ont. claiming the top five spots, each in the 10 to 14 per cent range.

Ottawa’s population also eclipsed the one-million mark during the most recent census period, increasing from 934,243 in 2016 to 1,017,449 last year.

That growth — 8.9 per cent — was the highest among Canada’s six largest census subdivisions, or municipalities. The largest, Toronto, grew by just 2.3 per cent, while Montreal saw a 3.4 increase. Calgary’s growth rate was 5.5 per cent, while Edmonton’s was 8.3 per cent. Winnipeg experienced a 6.3 per cent growth.

Ottawa’s growth during the last census period was also considerably higher than the 5.5 per cent it saw between 2011 and 2016.

Richard Forbes, a senior economist with the Conference Board of Canada, credits the strong growth in Ottawa’s public sector employment, especially early in the census period, as a key factor in the city’s population growth.

“Also, the city has done a really good job of drawing immigrants, which had ramped up a lot before the pandemic, and will probably rebound this year.

“Ottawa has a lot of the amenities that a lot of other cities that might be seen as unaffordable, like Toronto or Montreal, have, and its proximity to those cities makes Ottawa a pretty attractive destination.”

Sueling Ching, president and CEO of the Ottawa Board of Trade, agrees, saying that Ottawa benefits from a small-town feeling augmented by cosmopolitan amenities, including arts and culture, education, and growing technology and knowledge-based sectors.

“It’s a have-it-all city,” she says, “and there are a lot of reasons people would be attracted in terms of lifestyle.”

Only a small portion of Ottawa’s growth was in its downtown core, which grew by 7.1 per cent, from 62,725 residents in 2016 to 67,169 last year, below the national average of 10.9 per cent, and far behind Halifax, Montreal, Kelowna and Calgary, all of which boasted downtown growth between 21 and 26.1 per cent. Toronto’s downtown population growth, at 16.1 per cent, was more than double Ottawa’s, as was Gatineau’s, where the downtown core grew by slightly more than 1,800 inhabitants, to 11,685, a rate of 18.3 per cent.

Where Ottawa grew most rapidly was in the “intermediate” suburbs — areas that are a 20- to 30-minute drive from downtown during non-rush hour periods. There, the population grew by 21.4 per cent, about four times the national rate of 5.4 per cent, and third-highest among Canadian CMAs, behind only Edmonton (23.4 per cent) and Calgary (23.3). Toronto’s intermediate suburbs, by comparison, grew by just 0.4 per cent.

Coletto suggests that that may be because Ottawa, Edmonton and Calgary have available land for development that distance from their cores, whereas larger cities, such as Toronto, may not.

Additionally, says Forbes, the transition to remote working, even before the pandemic, has encouraged growth in the suburbs.

“Workplace flexibility has really grown in the past few years, so I think a lot of people have looked to locate a little further from the downtown core, and that’s a trend that has been accelerated by the pandemic.”

Elsewhere in Ottawa, population growth exceeded the national CMA average. Growth in the urban fringe (less than a 10-minute drive to downtown in non-rush hour periods) was 5.9 per cent, against a national average of 3.7 per cent (Just 1.1 per cent in Gatineau). Growth in the near suburbs (10- to 20-minute drive) was 7.7 per cent in Ottawa and 9.8 per cent in Gatineau, compared to 6.0 per cent in all Canadian CMAs.

Meanwhile, in the far suburbs (30+ minutes away), the population growth was 10.1 per cent in Ottawa and 12 per cent in Gatineau, against a national average of 8.8 per cent.

According to Stacey Hallman, an analyst with Statistics Canada, future releases of data, such as housing and mobility, may help explain these population shifts.

“But when you look at other cities, we have two phenomenon going on right now,” she says. “We have growth in the downtown core, which can be from immigration or different cities’ policies, trying to work on intensification in the core. And we also have urban spread, where the fastest growth is often in the distant suburbs — 30 minutes or more away.

“In Ottawa, it’s more in the intermediate suburbs, which could be for a number of reasons, like people moving because of housing costs — housing can be cheaper the farther away from downtown you are — and also with the pandemic, a lot of people now have the ability to work from home, so if they were thinking of moving before, maybe that inspired them.”

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local...in-2021-census

Quote:

Originally Posted by davee930 (Post 9534282)

Because we are surrounded by hay bales instead of real people. What do you expect??

LOL. That middle-of-nowhere though does have the benefit of far better air access. On the flip side though, no rail access.

Awesome news. I used to follow the population stats like crazy until we lost our 4th place status. Those few years with Calgary and Edmonton ahead of us were a bit of a bruise on the ego-not to mention them both also having taller skylines.

Quote:

Originally Posted by daud (Post 9559270)

Sure, Edmonton has a taller skyline. But it's also in Edmonton.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uhuniau (Post 9568667)

Sure, Edmonton has a taller skyline. But it's also in Edmonton.

YEP!

:cheers:

Quote:

Originally Posted by daud (Post 9559270)

Also Edmonton never actually surpassed Ottawa. They came close in 2016, but never overtook the NCR.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack (Post 9531805)

My census tract increased by 1.

The dude down the street had a kid last year. That put us into positive growth.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack (Post 9531805)

I'm assuming you live in those mid-century suburbs with houses of 900-1,200 square feet? I grew up in one of those. Nowadays, people want McMansions of 2,000+, which is too bad. Those smaller houses were solid.

The trend of redeveloping small houses in suburban areas near downtown has not hit Gatineau yet. I wonder when we'll start seeing it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by harls (Post 9573546)

My census tract increased by 1.

The dude down the street had a kid last year. That put us into positive growth.

:haha:

Quote:

Originally Posted by J.OT13 (Post 9573660)

No I live in an area of semis and and SFHs built mostly in the 1990s. Generally 1500 to just over 2000 sf.

The average age of a kid who grew up on my street is about 20, so a bunch of them have now left home but the parents aren't old enough to be selling off the family home yet.

So lots of empty(ing) nesters or soon-to-be empty nesters here.

We're not as old (either population or housing stock) as the areas around St-René and Lafrance, or around Rue de Pointe-Gatineau.

2022 Federal Redistribution

2022 Federal Redistribution

Posting in this thread since it's census-related.

The proposed new boundaries from the redistribution commission for Ontario dropped today.
Link here: https://redecoupage-redistribution-2...=en-ca&prov=on

Ottawa keeps 8 ridings, but rural Ontario ridings encroach into the city of Ottawa in 3 cases - in Kanata (2x) and in Orleans/Carleton.

Kanata (Sudds LPC) - Biggest change, no longer Kanata-Carleton, this riding shrinks in area to include only the suburban areas of carp and kanata, plus part of stittsville and all of bell's corners. Loses rural west end to Algonquin-Renfrew-Pembroke, plus the portion southwest of the 417 to Lanark-Frontenac.

Carleton (Polievre CPC)- loses part of stittsville to Kanata, gains rural parts of nepean (including fallowfield village), loses kenmore and marionville to Prescott Russell.

Nepean (Arya LPC) - loses bell's corners to kanata. loses it's rural area to Carleton, gains some area north of hunt club road between merivale and prince of wales (costco, gurudwara, rideau heights dr). This riding could comfortably be renamed 'Barrhaven'.

Ottawa West - Nepean (Vandenbeld LPC) - Loses Shirley's Bay and the DND Campus to Kanata, Loses Carlingwood to Ottawa-Centre, Loses (costco, gurudwara, rideau heights drive) to Nepean. Gains Carlington and Rideauview-Moffatt Farm from Ottawa Centre.

Ottawa Centre (Naqvi LPC) - Above swaps of Carlingwood for Carlington and Rideauview-Moffatt Farm with Ottawa West-Nepean.

Ottawa South (McGuinty LPC) - No changes

Ottawa-Vanier (Fortier LPC) - Gains Blackburn Hamlet from Orleans

Orleans (Lalonde LPC) - Loses all its rural areas to Prescott Russell (PR). Loses Blackburn Hamlet to Ottawa-Vanier.

Nice!...

I have a minor hatred for Calgary. I grew up a Habs fan. In 1989 my father assured me the Habs would win game 6 or whatever it was and sent me to bed early. I woke up and discovered my father didn't know everything.

Unforgivable Calgary... Unforgivable.

Plus they have cooler buildings than us. Pricks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ponyboycurtis (Post 9707546)

I'm a born and raised Calgarian. I will never ever forget the noise of an entire city running out their doors and screaming with joy when we won in game 6! We may have won in MTL, but the city was dancing in the streets after that!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Harley613 (Post 9707686)

I wasn't old enough to make heads or tails out of the win two years prior. Glad we got the win in 93. Biking to school the next day with my neighbor in our habs jerseys was amazing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by danishh (Post 9707520)

Every one of these changes makes the MPs holding their seats more secure. And while TMV cities are large enough to have suburban belts that swing, Ottawa unfortunately isn't. This makes us easier to ignore unfortunately.....

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeoNerd (Post 9534268)

In case you haven't noticed it's the same with every other forumer on SSP. lol check out the statscan thread in the canada section. You'll see alot of insecure people when it comes to population, not just from Calgary, but from every where...at least when it comes to SSP. Nobody I know in Calgary would care about census numbers either, but you once you're in SSP, it's a new world :). The average person in Ottawa probably doesn't care, but here on SSP if people in Ottawa didn't care, this thread and its comment wouldn't exist.

anywho.... I couldn't pass up the opportunity to post the latest numbers :D

Calgary 1,608,342 (1,558,588)
Ottawa 1,498,610 (1,474,077)

I have no idea where you got that Calgary number. I can't find any actual reputable sources. Alberta's own website says Calgary was 1,481,806 in 2021. Calgary metro did not increase by over 126,000 people in the last year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Harley613 (Post 9838846)

Stats Canada latest estimates are using 2016 cma boundaries. Ottawa-Gatineau 2021 cma area adds Arnprior and Carleton Place +(59,040),undercount from 2021 census and population growth from July 1st 2021 to 2022.
Calgary population growth from July 1st 2021 to July 1st 2022 was just under 50,000 ( very impressive) and their undercount had to be around 60,000+.

Stats Canada will have more accurate number in their February release.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Harley613 (Post 9838846)

Rhb summed it up. It seems to be a confusing case of undercounts. Ottawa's addition of Carleton Place/Arnprior isn't included in the latest numbers. The two city's populations are actually closer than what the latest numbers show.

Anyhow, hopefully didn't comes across as too rude. It's hard not to boast about numbers on SSP, too much history of numbers jockeying lol. For the record, I :heart: Ottawa. I lived there as kid, and still have relatives there. Kind of a second home to me. :cheers: