Alberta Politics II
 

yes and no, if Alberta had a PST , you would not have the same problem. The oil royalties could be an additional source of revenue for the province.

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The big problem is that the provincial government annually pins its budget to a predicted oil price for the year (this year was over $90 a barrel I believe) rather than basing spending on a low oil price (say, $50 a barrel for example) and putting the rest into long term savings like the Heritage Fund. The Klein government was able to deliver budget surpluses on oil prices as low as $9 a barrel in 1998. Since Klein left, there has been no fiscal discipline whatsoever in this province.:hell:

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/\Yup. Hopefully Prentice will take some lessons from this latest downturn in budgets moving forward...

This was going to be my response as well. That being said I think we should have a small PST (2% maybe), that way we can grow the Heritage Fund like Norway has. The Tea Party wannabes in this province would never go for it so it would be political suicide to do it...

The Klein era was not good in the long term. The infrastructure was left to deteriorate while trying to reduce the debt. We are now paying the price for that with the money being spent to replace and upgrade facilities. Another issue was the ending of Health Care premiums. Instead of bringing in a PST lets reinstate the HCP. At least get some stable funding for the health care system.
Diversifying the revenue stream is required. And as was mentioned above diversifying the revenue is more important that diversifying the economy. The energy sector is only 25% of the GDP.

Maybe they can't diversify the economy as much as they would like.

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I'm not sure that Alberta needs a sales tax to cover government revenue, in my mind the biggest mistake of the Klein era was bringing in the flat tax. Right now a person making $50K a year pays twice as much taxes in Alberta as they would in Ontario, and a person making $200K a year pays 25% less than they would in Ontario.

Agree in principle but would rather see a new wealth fund set up instead of keeping it in the Heritage Fund, unless the Heritage fund is restructured.

Nothing wrong with a flat tax, everyone pays an equal share so I don't see a need to change. Progress taxes unfairly penalize those who are successful financially but then that seems to be a Canadian thing so it would not be surprised to see a return to it in Alberta although I hope not.

Simplistic thinking. The flat tax is grossly unfair to those at the bottom of the scale, who put far more of their income into their basic living expenses. People in higher income brackets not only have the advantage of making much more money -- they have so much money that they can use it for investing, savings accounts, etc. to further increase their earnings. But I'm sure I didn't have to tell you that Mr. Successful.

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Actually there is a lot, it's a horrid idea, and shows a severe lack of understanding of people in general if you think it makes sense. I'm on the autistic spectrum with significant empathy impairments and even I know it's a severely flawed source of reasoning. It borders on intellectual psychopathy to think this wouldn't physically harm people, is realistic or is fair.

**rant over**

nothing infuriates me more than having to make arguments that make me appear as if I'm pro left wing.

Quoted for truth.

This issue is not specific to Alberta. All jurisdictions in Canada are facing the same neglected infrastructure problems.

http://pppcouncil.ca/resources/issue...nvestment.html

A few key achievements stand out from the Klein era, at least in my view:
-keeping spending under control (or at least, recognizing the correlation between revenue and spending; whether you keep spending down or increase taxes to keep pace with spending - one or the other needs to happen;
-consistently balanced budgets, even during times of low commodity prices;
-aggressively courting corporate relocation from other provinces. This was about as close as the government ever got to successful diversification.

Agree that he should have kept the health premiums, but I believe it was actually Stelmach who eliminated them.

Not to say he didn't make mistakes (every leader does), but these were solid achievements; I can't think of any notable achievements from Klein's successors...

I moved the conversation into the ABC forum. Have at 'er.

Fun fact about progressive income taxes...

While a flat tax certainly has its merits, one disadvantage is that it doesn't have the same stabilizing effect a progressive tax has during economic slumps, or at least not to the same extent.

During an economic slowdown, incomes obviously tend to fall, and when incomes fall under a progressive system, people get pushed into lower brackets, reducing not just their absolute tax payments, but also the tax they pay as a percentage of their income. This means a lower reduction in saving/consumption than if people didn't fall into lower brackets, which can decrease the severity of a recession.

When the brackets are designed well, a progressive tax reduces the tax burden during economic troubles (and also has the effect of increasing it during economic booms when people are more capable of paying).

While a flat tax with a personal deduction is also progressive, a similar drop in income doesn't produce as large of a drop in the overall income tax rate being paid.


This doesn't necessarily mean Alberta should reinstate a progressive income tax system, but it's certainly food for thought. A PST would probably be more effective in stabilizing revenue anyway.





Also... Progressive taxes don't necessarily penalize success because the rich often benefit more from certainly public services than the middle class or poor, so it is logical that they pay more. For instance, the rich benefit much more from an efficient police system because they have far more in assets to lose in case of theft/etc. The same applies to fire protection, etc.
Plus there's the fact that chances are the extra marginal income the rich get back from a flat tax system is probably going towards things like a second home or a second Bentley. There are far more efficient and/or desirable uses for capital. I'm not talking about redistributing wealth here, I'm talking about the tax burden. Taking money from groups to give to other groups just makes people upset. It's more agreeable for both groups when the money they pay is instead used for projects and services that everyone can use.

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Sounds like Rob Anders is contemplating running for the leadership of the Wild Rose party. I hope he does become their leader, will pretty much guarantee those tea baggers will never form the government!

He would certainly dead end them. Though I would prefer the Wildrose to have some seats. A safe place for the right to camp out and roast marshmallows.

It would certainly make me reconsider voting for them again.

RIP Manmeet Bhullar. He died in a car crash on QEII during the snowstorm.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...rash-1.3331978

Is anyone else concerned that the wild rose party once coming to power in 2019 will scrap Albertas new climate change plan?

Once all the provinces have plans, I believe the general thrust is they will be locked in somewhat using a Canada Health Act type mechanism where a province that opts out then the federal government has the power to implement a program to achieve the same targets.

RIP Jim Prentice.

Jim Prentice killed in a plane crash outside of Kelowna.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...lled-1.3804941

Poll finds Alberta PCs leading and strong backing for 'unite the right'
 

A surprising new poll shows the Progressive Conservatives with a significant lead among Alberta voters, while the governing NDP has plunged to third place.

The survey from the Citizen Society Research Lab at Lethbridge College also shows two-thirds of Albertans support a merger of PC and Wildrose parties in time to fight the next election in 2019.

The live-caller telephone survey of 1,513 adult Albertans, conducted from Oct. 1 to 8, puts the Tories ahead with 38.4 per cent support among decided voters, with the Wildrose at 25.7 per cent and the NDP at 19.7 per cent.

http://storage.calgarysun.com/v1/dyn...y=80&size=420x

Complete article at: http://www.calgarysun.com/2016/10/18...nite-the-right

Say hellooooo to Premier Kenny!


Ugh. Disgusting and embarrassing.

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Not sure if they can overcome the negativity. Of course that all depends on who's squaking the loudest

If this were any normal type of situation we'd be going into the red zone pretty quick (2 years till next election). Wonder it the ND's will keep their foot on the gas or if they'll back off until the next election

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I think this time has a much better chance of being different depending on how much support Jason can get from the real power players in the province and if the PCs are smart enough to make some major changes to how they operate to ensure we never have a repeat of their last years. How they elect their leader, true fixed election dates, etc. are some of the things I believe the masses would like to see. Also, the WRP seems to be stuck at ~25% support--if they are unable to raise that figure under the current circumstances how will they when things get better and the PCs have rebuilt their party?

If I was the NDP I would be very worried. Deep down they must realize that the only reason they were elected is because people wanted to punish the PCs. Rachel seems like a nice enough person but I believe those running the show behind the scenes are very scary. I think a lot of Albertans feel the same way. Too many ideologically-based decisions are being made despite the fact that those same decisions have proven to be complete disasters in Ontario. I do applaud them for being smart enough to keep spending on infrastructure to take advantage of lower costs. That is something that the PCs are going to have to copy because waiting until times are better and costs are higher is also being ideologically stupid.

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That's a rare "CATI" opinion poll - live telephone interview (landline/cell). Very expensive yet quite accurate - considered the "gold standard". Nanos federally is also CATI and has been bang-on over the past 5 fed elections.

The only polling stuff that comes out of Alberta is either opt-in online panel polls (Insights West/Think HQ) or IVR (robo) polls (Mainstreet). Just cheap polling junk.

The Calgary-Greenway by-election from March, 2016 basically corroborates the foregoing with the PCs winning, WR in 2nd, Libs in 3rd, and NDP in 4th spot.

I have always stated that the AB NDP was an "accidental" gov't akin to the 1990 ONDP gov't and suspect that it will suffer the same fate - wiped out in Calgary, rural AB, suburban Edmonton with a rump NDP MLA group in inner city Edmonton. AB NDP support is collapsing here and, in all likelihood, will be a "one-term wonder".

The 2015 fed election results in AB, with the CPC obtaining 60% popular vote share (-7% over 2011), confirms that AB continues to have the highest right-wing voter demographics in Canada.

BTW, I can't see Kenney taking over the PCs - he's a WR type. Suspect that another one of the PC contenders will win the PC leadership contest next March.

Either you're misunderstanding me or I'm misunderstanding you. I'm saying that the PCs can't be tied to having balanced budgets at any cost. Going back to the days of huge infrastructure deficits and only building when we have the money to do so is stupid. We need to build when costs are low and build up the treasury when times are good.

The NDP winning in AB in 2015 was a protest vote gone wrong. People wanted to punish the PCs, the media did a great hatchet job on the WRP, and Rachel looked good in the one debate they had. Too many people viewed Rachel as a nice person which I'm sure she is but forgot to factor in that the rest of the party and their supporters had no government experience and a scary agenda that few would support if we got to vote on it. Now we're stuck with them until 2019 which seems like an eternity. I was hoping for a minority government which I thought would be the best case scenario but that's not how this province operates.

I wouldn't count Jason out. He seemed to be able to get a lot done in Ottawa and he has a ton of connections. His biggest foe will probably end up being the left-wing media. They would shit themselves if he united the right because that would mean he would very likely become the next premiere. I hope whoever takes over the PCs makes fundamental changes to how the party is run and makes a strong written commitment to improve democracy in AB. I want to see true fixed election dates not this two (?) month window nonsense we currently have. I also want to see recall legislation without the ridiculous levels of support that BC requires in their legislation. The entire system needs to change but that can come later.

Yeah. Followed the election closely. The Liberals were leaderless, the PC/WR fiasco rubbed folk the wrong way with the WR also essentially leaderless, while Notley had previously replaced Brian Mason as NDP leader.

And Prentice's missteps during the leadership debate (along with Notley's showing) essentially sealed the deal for Notley. NDP candidates were basically a ragtag of social activists, union activists, and enviro activists.

To top it off, the AB NDP gov't imported quite a few BC NDP stalwarts into senior positions, who have been long known in BC as political incompetents. To wit:

1. Brian Topp - 2013 BC NDP campaign manager - now Notley's chief of staff;
2. Jim Rutkowski - former BC NDP leader Carole James former chief of staff - now senior advisor to Notley;
3. John Heaney - current BC NDP leader John Horgan's former chief of staff - now AB deputy minister of policy and planning;
4. Marcella Munroe - BC NDP strategist - now heads Calgary gov't communications bureau;
5. Parm Kahlon - former executive assistant to several BC NDP MLAs - Notley's executive assistant;
6. Matt Hannah - formerly BC NDP - now AB Gov't issues management;
7. Benjamin Alldritt - former communications officer with BC NDP caucus - now AB Gov't issues management;

I can go on and on.

In any event, once the AB NDP were elected, I gave them 1 1/2 years at most before they would collapse in public opinion into 3rd place. Same scenario played out in BC with the election of the BC NDP back in 1991. Same social engineering going on in AB as in BC back in 1991/1992. Déjà vu. Within 1 1/2 years of election, in 1993 the BC NDP popular support collapsed into 3rd place (after the BC Liberals and BC Reform Party - 1993 Mustel polls [also CATI pollster]).

Within 1 1/2 years, the NDP brand in BC had become so badly damaged that the federal NDP vote/seats had also collapsed in BC during the 1993 fed election and thereafter.

On that note, a fed by-election was held yesterday in the AB riding of Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner - always a right-wing seat federally. Also of note is that the AB NDP won one of the underlying provincial seats in May, 2015 - Medicine Hat.

For a by-election, the turnout was relatively high at 44.54%. More importantly, the NDP vote completely collapsed as it is apparent the NDP brand in AB is also now fatally damaged:

CPC: 69.9%
Liberal: 25.6%
CHP: 2%
NDP: 1%
Libertarian: 0.8%
Rhinoceros: 0.6%

http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?lang=e

Not a protest vote for me. Still don't think it's gone wrong. If there was an election today, I'd vote for them again.

^ x 2. I would vote the same again and I support the vast majority of initiatives and policies the AB NDP has put forward

Why do you two support them? Vested interest?

I think they have done a terrible job. They increased spending which, IMO, is the biggest blunder as well as their carbon tax model is garbage. Yes, yes, I understand it's a tough time in AB right now.

When the NDP are booted out, their legacy will contain one thing - debt.

I have been disappointed with the AB NDP and their 'make it right' ideology.

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Why not just hold the line on spending?

The largest problem we face are social programs and the financial burden that they carry. Public healthcare takes up a huge amount of public money. That's just one program.

The only way to gain more revenue is mostly by taxation and fees. We know we can't increase royalties. They're on par.

The AB NDP also had a plan for public finances during the election campaign. I think it was tossed out at the first budget. Not sure I really trust anything that they say anymore regarding money. (I don't even think they care about public debt.)

I'm not against the carbon tax, I'm against the AB NDP model of 'take from here and give to here.' The personal exemption amount for taxes should have been increased to offset OR income tax rates should have fallen to offset.

The poor should get no free pass to pollute.

It's cute that conservatives in Alberta automatically assume that if you support a progressive government you must either work for the government or somehow benefit from it.

No, I support the policies and platform of the current government, I support the government that has committed to making decisions with the people of Alberta, not the corporations in mind, and I support the initiatives that would never be implemented under the regressive parties. I'm quite sure that a great number of folks realized that this could be a short run and the NDP are pushing their agenda because I think they know that time is limited as well.

Alberta will go back to it's old ways eventually I am sure, but in this brief moment in time the opportunity was taken to try and do something more than just ensuring every grade 9 educated hick in the province can afford a brand new pickup and a big new house.

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Another rare "CATI" poll released today by long time pollster Innovative Research. Corroborates earlier opinion poll results posted above and looks like AB NDP support has now completely collapsed:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwnJ6r5WEAA2224.jpg

The bottom line is we have to remain competitive on a global scale.

When I tell some people I support a rev neutral Carbon Tax, I get a response of - "Why would you support a policy that strangles our industry?"

We haven't really seen anything from the NDP that attracts business here. And the stigma around their name really doesn't help. What was the reaction by the stock market for Canadian Energy stocks on May 6th, 2015?... Not good.

The increase in corp taxes really hurt. Prentice had the right plan.

Anyways, that's all in the past now.

We need to attract jobs here. Plain and simple. The NDP isn't doing that.

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Completely agree and that is usually my response back to them.

Albertans just don't want a carbon tax of any form. Whether it is rev neutral or not, they just don't want it.

As I said before, I just want my income tax to drop. Stop overtaxing my time that I invest into society/the economy and start coming down hard on social parasites that don't contribute but could.

I just want proper fiscal policy. Fiscal responsibility is very important to me. When I live under a government that is going to have a legacy of debt, it bothers me greatly.

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