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Apr 7, 2010 3:58 PM |
Quote:
Vancouver to lead economic growth in 2010
Financial Post April 7, 2010 8:50 AM
OTTAWA — The Olympic flame will continue to contribute to the healthy glow in Vancouver’s economy through the rest of this year, with the boost from the Winter Games helping it outpace all other Canadian cities in terms of economic growth, a report said Wednesday.
The Olympics pumped an estimated $600 million into the West Coast city’s economy, the Conference Board of Canada said in its Metropolitan Outlook — Spring 2010, which forecasts growth for 13 Canadian cities.
“The Olympic Games provided a big, even if temporary, boost to retail trade, arts, entertainment and recreation, accommodation, and food services in Vancouver. All in all, the Olympics injected about $600 million into the Vancouver economy, lifting growth by about 0.8 percentage points,” said Mario Lefebvre, director of the Conference Board’s Centre for Municipal Studies. “On top of that, demand for new homes in Vancouver began to recover at the end of last year and that momentum has carried over into the first couple months of 2010.”
Halifax, the only city in the board’s survey to have posted GDP growth amid the economic downturn last year, will move to the middle of the pack this year, with growth of 2.5 per cent, as larger cities benefit from a recovery in the manufacturing and construction sectors, and — in 2010 at least — continued federal stimulus spending, the board said.
Toronto, which was particularly hard-hit by the recession, and Hamilton, Ont., will take second and third place behind Vancouver. The board forecasts 3.7 per cent growth in Canada’s largest city, and 3.3 per cent in Hamilton, which will not be quite enough for a full recovery from the 4.5 per cent decline in 2009.
Victoria is in fourth place, with forecasted growth of 3.2 per cent in 2010 based on renewed demand in the services sector, increased consumer spending and recovery in construction and manufacturing.
Edmonton rounds out the Top 5 for 2010, with construction growth leading it to a 2.9 per cent increase in GDPthis year.
The board warns that Ottawa-Gatineau’s 2.8 per cent growth this year will slow in 2011 as a federal government spending freeze takes hold.
© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun
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Source: Vancouver Sun
And apparently Canada's growth has been outpacing the other G7 countries...
Quote:
Canada ‘enthusiastic rebound’ best in G7, OECD says
OTTAWA — Canada’s economy is blowing its G7 peers out of the water in terms of the speed and strength of its economic recovery, says a new outlook from a leading international organization.
The Paris-based Organization for Economic Development and Co-operation says Canada’s economy likely grew 6.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year, well ahead of the 1.9 per cent overall growth estimated for the other G7 countries.
And the 30-member organization, representing the world’s advanced nations including the G7, says Canada’s economy will continue to expand in the second quarter — the March-June period — at 4.5 per cent, about twice the G7 average.
“Canada is benefiting from its past good policies, in spite of the fact that Canada was severely hit through trade ...from south of the border,” said OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan.
The United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Italy, Germany and France are the other G7 countries. Brazil, China, India and Russia aren’t currently full members of the OECD, despite the growing international importance of their economies.
Padoan noted that Canada had entered the recession with stronger fundamentals than its peers, in terms of growth, its banking sector and governmental fiscal position. Canada’s debt relative to its economy is the lowest in the G7.
The Canadian economy grew at a surprisingly strong five-per-cent clip during the last three months of 2009, and kept going in January with a 0.6 per cent monthly advance that surprised analysts.
As a result, several private sector economists have revised upwards their forecast for Canadian growth in the first half of this year, but few have put growth above six per cent in any quarter.
However, economists have cautioned that Canada’s economic growth will likely slow down, noting the Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates in June or July, which could reduce domestic borrowing and spending.
Overall, the OECD said it was moderately optimistic about the global economic picture, with the emerging economies experiencing strong growth that is pulling industrialized countries along.
“The bottom line is that the recovery is taking hold slowly,” Padoan said at a news conference. “Industry production is bouncing back strongly, business confidence is rebounding (and) that is extremely encouraging.”
Other encouraging developments are that financial conditions are improving and global trade has rebounded from the fall-off during the recession.
He said trouble spots remain, including high unemployment, which is only starting to peak in some countries.
The OECD study added that it expects growth in leading rich economies to slow somewhat after government stimulus programs is withdrawn.
Still, “overall it is an encouraging picture,” said Padoan.
The OECD forecast that U.S. gross domestic product would rise 2.4 per cent in the first quarter and 2.3 per cent in the second quarter, down from 5.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year. Forecasts for Japan are 1.1 per cent and 2.3 per cent for the first two quarters of 2010, down from 3.8 per cent in the fourth quarter 2009.
Germany’s economy probably shrank in the first quarter, however, due to a slump in construction activity. The OECD estimates Germany’s rate of economic was minus-0.4 per cent in the first quarter but will grow bounce to 2.8 per cent in the second quarter.
The OECD urged rich governments to end stimulus programs next year or earlier to avoid sinking deeper into debt. But it warned that they should do so gradually and carefully.
“Despite some encouraging signs on activity, the fragility of the recovery, a frail labour market and possible headwinds coming from financial markets underscore the need for caution in the removal of policy support,” the report said.
“Consolidation should start in 2011, or earlier where needed, and progress gradually so as not to undermine the incipient recovery.”
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Source: Toronto Star |
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