Hamilton Population 2020?
 

Does anyone have population projections for Hamilton in 2020 or 2030?

"The City of Hamilton is forecast to experience significant population growth over the next 20 years. The population of the city is planned to grow from the current 500,000 residents to an anticipated population of 660,000 residents while employment is expected to grow to 300,000 jobs by 2031."

From Metrolinx - Hhamilton King-Main Benefits Case (Feb 2010)
http://www.metrolinx.com/Docs/Agenda..._FNL_DRAFT.pdf

Thanks so much SteelTown.

Based on those numbers by 2030 Hamilton's CMA will likely reach a million.

while the lower city is currently losing population. That growth will be in Burlington, Grimsby, South Mountain, Ancaster and Stoney creek, Waterdown The donut hole is getting bigger

Actually Metrolinx's forecast the lower end of the City to increase in population with LRT.

Figured I could add this here as well....

Hamilton's visible minority population expected to double
Canadian Press
3/9/2010
http://www.900chml.com/Channels/Reg/...spx?ID=1204615

One out of every four people in the Hamilton region will be a visible minority by 2031.

The projection comes from a Statistics Canada report, which expects Hamilton's population of visible minorities to more than double within 30 years.

In 2006, visible minorities made up just 12% of Hamilton's population.

The report suggests the face of Canada will change even more dramatically than it already has as immigrants from South Asia and China continue to outnumber the Europeans who settled the country.

The national figures project a radically altered population over a half century.

Across Canada, Stats-Can is predicting 31% of the population, or about 14-million people, will be a visible minority in three decades.

In 1981, there were just over 1-million Canadians who identified themselves as visible minorities, representing less than 5% of the population.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v3...hit/vismin.jpg
From Wooster @ SSP

LRT has to happen first. and that's years away if it does. Probably won't have a decision even until after the election.

It's not even debatable. the lower city has been losing pop. and jobs since early 90s.

And the city continues to expand the border, aerotropolis will turn into sprawl, combined with the minimum set density goals set out in Places to Grow Act for downtown. I'll hold my breathe for LRT but with every passing deadline I', losing hope

The lower city also has somewhat of a bad rep too.

660,000. That's mind blowing. That's like Mississauga right now.

According to a feasability study for our local rec centre, the city is projecting 15% growth in West Hamilton, although they don't give a timeframe and refer to this growth rate as "slow".

I'm looking at my copy of the Places to Grow booklet from November 2005. It's a 25 year plan. We are now one fifth into the timeline of the plan. It used 2001 census. Distilled and conceived in 2003-4. Officially launched in 2005. To be reviewed every 5 years. This year it will get its first report card. It's first mid-terms if you will. I'm looking forward to see how much has changed?

How much has Hamilton infilled? How much density has increased along Barton, Canon, Wilson, Main corridors? How many residential units have been built or are currently under seriously planning? How many jobs have been created in the lower city and CBD? The area where most of the activity and density is supposed to happen.

Nothing will change. Hamilton is still dreaming of a Pearson lite (aerotropolis), a 427ish version industrial park (Canada Bread Park). All of this is the complete opposite of Places to Grow. And opposite of own GRIDS and the most laughable... Vision 20/20, which was conceived in 2000 as a 20 year plan and we're now halfway there and basically zero of the Vision 20/20 plan has come to fruition. Vision 20/20 has lost its sight.

Westdale is brilliant. A gold-star for Hamilton, unfortunately it's getting too expensive to live in a single detached house for most families. The area is ripe for some 20+ floor condos.... :)

All good intentions. Hamilton is great at talking the talk. .. but trips over its feet when it tries to walk to the starting line. I think McQuinty should drop the hammer on the Hammer.

The 5-year review is being done by Hemson Consulting. A big fan of Hamilton. or should I say, the City of Hamilton is a very good client. I don't expect Hemson to come down hard on Hamilton's total fail...

Hemson is the consulting co. that pushed 'logistics' and greenfield development as our only economic hope, so they are pretty much the last ones who should be evaluating our 'progress'. Hamlilton's fail is their fail.

thanks for the info real city

Statistic Canada released CMA numbers today.

Hamilton (Ont.) CMA
721,053 - 2011
692,911 - 2006
4.1% change

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...=3&O=D&RPP=150

Hamilton's population hits 519,949 :)

900CHML.com 2/8/2012

New census data shows the population of the Hamilton metropolitan area has increased by 4.1 per cent since the last census in 2006.

But our area's growth rate is below the national growth rate of 5.9 per cent.

The population of Ontario increased by 5.7 per cent.

Statistics Canada released the first batch of numbers from the 2011 census today.

It shows the population of the Hamilton metropolitan as 721,053, compared with 692,911 from the 2006 census.

The population of the actual city of Hamilton was 519,949, up from 504,559 in 2006.

That puts Hamilton as Canada's 9th largest census metropolitan areas.

Among the local cities within our metro area, Milton recorded the biggest population jump, going from 53,889 in 2006 to 84,362, an increase of 56.5 per cent.

Burlington's population has grown from 164,415 to 175,779 while Oakville has risen to 182,520, up from 165,613 in 2006.

Canada's population on census day was 33,476,688 and grew the fastest of the G8 countries over the last five years.

http://www.900chml.com/Channels/Reg/...spx?ID=1651752

City of Hamilton population...

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...&T=301&S=3&O=D

So it appears next time Hamilton will get a big boost. Too bad Caledonia was 10000 or Hamilton would be above Quebec City and Winnipeg.

The population for Hamilton, Niagara, Haldimand and Brant is 1,315,970.

A revised Reference Forecast for the City of Hamilton appears in Hemson's Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041* (Nov 2012):

2001: 510,000
2006: 524,000
2011: 540,000
2016: 568,000
2021: 601,000
2026: 640,000
2031: 683,000
2036: 733,000
2041: 778,000

*NOTE: Hemson subsequently issued a Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041, Technical Report Addendum (June 2013).

A complementary but more conservative data set for Hamilton is found in the Ministry of Finance’s Ontario Population Projections Update, 2011-2036 (Spring 2012):

2001: 510,100
2006: 523,800
2011: 540,200
2016: 560,100
2021: 580,100
2026: 602,800
2031: 626,800
2036: 651,100

With Burlington pretty much built out except for intensification, people looking for new housing are going to have look at Hamilton.

Hopefully Hamilton can manage some intensification as well. The city's default development mode, of course, has tended to be suburban.

"On a sub-market basis, between July and September 2012, the City of Hamilton was responsible for all the semi-detached, row and apartment starts. In essence, during the third quarter of 2012, no higher-density construction occurred in Burlington or Grimsby. Within the City of Hamilton, the lion’s share of the third quarter semi-detached and row starts was recorded in Stoney Creek while the new condominium apartments in Ancaster and Flamborough areas accounted for all the apartment starts." (CMHC, Oct 2012)

This is borne out by demographic history.


http://i.imgur.com/sso6DTN.jpg

Former City of Hamilton (Wards 1-8) ◊
1956: 250,914
1961: 273,991
1966: 298,121
1971: 309,173
1976: 312,005
1981: 306,435
1986: 306,730
1991: 318,500
1996: 322,350
2001: 330,310
2006: 329,845
2011: 330,481

79,567 residents added (32% net growth) 1956-2011
21,308 residents added (7% net growth) 1971-2011

SEGMENTED:

Hamilton, Lower City (Wards 1-5) נ
1956: 200,037
1961: 198,689
1966: 203,627
1971: 207,572
1976: 202,045
1981: 194,537
1986: 189,924
1991: 187,181
1996: 185,118
2001: 186,938
2006: 182,405
2011: 180,246

19,791 residents lost (10% net loss) 1956-2011
27,326 residents lost (13% net loss) 1971-2011

Hamilton Mountain (Wards 6-8) נ
1956: 50,877
1961: 75,302
1966: 94,494
1971: 101,601
1976: 109,960
1981: 111,897
1986: 116,810
1991: 131,318
1996: 137,234
2001: 143,371
2006: 147,440
2011: 150,235

99,358 residents added (195% net growth) 1956-2011
48,634 residents added (48% net growth) 1971-2011

http://i.imgur.com/avQtvY1.jpg

Glanbrook-Stoney Creek (Wards 9-11) ◊
1956: 17,378
1961: 29,738
1966: 34,121
1971: 37,309
1976: 40,475
1981: 46,530
1986: 53,145
1991: 56,695
1996: 64,885
2001: 69,472
2006: 77,570
2011: 87,558

70,180 residents added (404% net growth) 1956-2011
47,083 residents added (116% net growth) 1971-2011

Ancaster (Ward 12) ◊
1956: 9,157
1961: 13,338
1966: 14,960
1971: 15,087
1976: 14,255
1981: 14,425
1986: 17,260
1991: 21,985
1996: 23,403
2001: 25,297
2006: 31,040
2011: 35,120

25,963 residents added (284% net growth) 1956-2011
20,033 residents added (133% net growth) 1971-2011

Dundas (Ward 13) ◊
1956: 10,886
1961: 12,912
1966: 15,501
1971: 18,740
1976: 19,180
1981: 19,585
1986: 20,115
1991: 21,865
1996: 23,125
2001: 24,394
2006: 24,695
2011: 24,907

14,021 residents added (128% net growth) 1956-2011
6,167 residents added (33% net growth) 1971-2011

Flamborough (Wards 14+15) ◊‡
1956: 15,034
1961: 18,202
1966: 20,417
1971: 20,930
1976: 23,580
1981: 24,470
1986: 26,135
1991: 29,615
1996: 34,035
2001: 39,984
2006: 41,410
2011: 41,883

26,849 residents added (176% net growth) 1956-2011
20,953 residents added (100% net growth) 1971-2011



Burlington ∆
1971: 86,125
1976: 104,314
1981: 114,314
1986: 116,673
1991: 129,575
1996: 136,976
2001: 150,836
2006: 164,415
2011: 175,779

89,654 residents added (104% net growth) 1971-2011

Grimsby §
1971: 15,770
1981: 15,797
1991: 18,520
1996: 19,585
2001: 21,297
2006: 23,937
2011: 25,325

9,555 residents added (61% net growth) 1971-2011


FWIW, here's Hemson's Reference Forecast for Region of Halton:

2001: 391,000
2006: 458,000
2011: 520,000
2016: 575,000
2021: 645,000
2026: 726,000
2031: 816,000
2036: 913,000
2041: 1,011,000

SEGMENTED:

Burlington ††
2006: 164,446
2011: 173,761
2016: 175,438
2021: 178,847
2026: 182,034
2031: 186,169

•

DATA SOURCES:

◊ Hamilton 1956-1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
∆ Burlington 1971-2011
§ Grimsby 1981, 1991-2011
† Segmented Hamilton: 1956-1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
†† Burlington Forecast: Halton Region Draft Best Planning Estimates, 2011-2031

‡ Post-2000, ward data fused to reflect pre-amalgamation boundaries

I love statistics - thanks for posting.

I remember when Ancaster was a sleepy little rural community. I'm not sure what it is now.

all the growth in suburbs. Wards 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 will continue to lose population like they have for the last 50 years.

I don't think any of those wards have actually lost any population in the last few years. I don't know where you're getting that from.

Another past forecast, from GRIDS' Growth Report (May 2006), located in the table Current Trend Population Growth (Urban and Rural), 2006-31...

Urban Area: 2001 Pop’n / 2031 Pop’n / Pop’n Growth

Ancaster: 30,155 / 39,565 / 9,410
Dundas: 24,042 / 24,783 / 741
Flamborough: 39,122 / 54,366 / 15,244
Glanbrook: 13,685 / 34,515 / 20,830
Lower Stoney Creek: 42,028 / 47,354 / 5,326
Upper Stoney Creek: 18,319 / 30,153 / 11,834
Lower Hamilton: 190,184 / 191,081 / 897
Upper Hamilton: 142,682 / 148,442 / 4,562

TOTAL: 500,217 / 569,061 / 68,843


... and a segmented snapshot of Hamilton's population trends, 2001-2011.

Lower City ◊
Ward 01 = 1,836 loss (-5.8%)
Ward 02 = 780 loss (-2.0%)
Ward 03 = 1,779 loss (-4.4%)
Ward 04 = 400 loss (-1.0%)
Ward 05 = 1,897 loss (-4.8%)

Mountain ◊
Ward 06 = 1,280 loss (-3.2%)
Ward 07 = 5,845 growth (+10.4%)
Ward 08 = 2,298 growth (+4.9%)

Suburbs ◊
Ward 09 = 2,630 growth (+10.8%)
Ward 10 = 1,045 loss (-4.3%)
Ward 11 = 16,501 growth (+80.3%)
Ward 12 = 9,823 growth (+38.8%)
Ward 13 = 513 growth (+2.1%)
Ward 14 = 2,312 growth (+15.1%)
Ward 15 = 413 loss (-1.7%)

DATA SOURCES: ◊ Hamilton 2001 & 2011

If lower Hamilton grows by only ~900 people over the next generation then we've done something terribly wrong. I'm quite sure we can do better than that.

Easy... have more kids.

Really shows how unrestricted urban sprawl has gone in Hamilton. I think we will see the trend turn the other way in the next 30 years, as the focus is coming back to urban living and we are starting to see Toronto-Hamilton migration picking up.

Related to today's rapid transit conversations in GIC, a population growth takeaway from IBI Group's 2010 HSR Operational Review:

“Population growth in the City of Hamilton is forecast to occur mainly in suburban areas which traditionally have had lower density and limited mixed development patterns such as Flamborough, Stoney Creek and Glanbrook, and to a lesser extent, Ancaster and Dundas. The greatest percentage growth in residential population between 2011 and 2031 will be experienced by the Southeast Mountain Urban Boundary Expansion (UBE) area, should the City decide to complete a comprehensive review and secondary plan for the area. In this area, the population size is expected to more than quadruple between the years 2011 and 2021, and grow 8-fold between 2021 and 2031. It is anticipated that the following areas will also have large increases: in Glanbrook there will be an 87% increase in population between 2011 and 2021 and a 41% increase between 2021 and 2031, and in Flamborough, the growth is expected to be 37% between 2011 and 2021 and 43% between 2021 and 2031. In comparison Lower Hamilton (ie. Downtown and surrounding area) is expected to grow by 5% over the same period, although this could increase significantly if proposed RT serves to stimulate growth as anticipated.”

Hamilton seen as undergoing slower growth through 2016, pronounced gains thereafter in revised forecasts from the Ontario Ministry of Finance’s Ontario Population Projections, 2013–2041 (Fall 2014):

2006: 523,600
2011: 535,600
2016: 558,800
2021: 581,600
2026: 606,400
2031: 631,500
2036: 655,300
2041: 677,600

According to StatsCan numbers released today, Hamilton CMA was Canada’s 20th fastest-growing CMA in 2014/2015 — at 0.8% growth, it lagged just behind the national average and tied with Kingston, Montreal and Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge.

The Hamilton CMA’s 2015 population estimate now stands at 771,703, a bump of ~29,000 over the 2011 estimate and ~52,000 above the 2006 estimate.

Going off StatsCan’s data, Ontario’s five fastest-growing CMAs were Oshawa (1.3%), Toronto (1.3%), Barrie (1.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.1%) and Guelph (1.1%).

+

Annual Population Estimates at July 1 for Hamilton (CD):

2006 523,629
2007 524,002
2008 525,599
2009 527,652
2010 531,633
2011 535,602
2012 541,013
2013 545,585
2014 551,751
2015 556,359


SOURCES: 2006-2013 / 2014 / 2015

Hamilton CMA growing at a good clip :cheers:

http://i.imgur.com/nBULPMl.png

Is part of that the addition lf Caledonia to the CMA because it surpassed 10,000 residents thus would now be included in the Hamilton CMA?

POPULATION GROWTH

2001-2015
Hamilton (CD/City) = 66,089 (13.5%)
Hamilton (CMA) = 109,302 (16.5%)

---

2001-2006 [Census]
Hamilton (CD/City) = 33,359
Hamilton (CMA) = 30,510

2006-2011 [Census]
Hamilton (CD/City) = 15,390
Hamilton (CMA) = 28,142

2011-2015 [Estimates]
Hamilton (CD/City) = 20,757
Hamilton (CMA) = 29,205

So going forward, will Burlington start contributing a lot less to Hamilton's CMA growth? I was under the impression that single family home building in Burlington was slowing down, but I could be wrong.

That what I've heard, though for the next decade or so Flamborough area will probably pick up most of that slack (and certain parts of the East end might too, Stoney Creek to Toronto isn't much farther than Burlington to Toronto).

You do know Hamilton's ENTIRE LOWER CITY IS LOSING POPULATION. Wards, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, are losing and been losing population for 50 years, some more like 1 and 2. It's a Rust Belt thing, similar to Cleveland, Buffalo, Detroit and smaller areas like Erie,Gary, Toledo and Dayton.

Oddly enough Buffalo, Detroit and Cleveland like to claim that healthcare and education are their number one employers. Guess what, they are regional centres like Hamilton is in some regard, and also claim that we are a healthcare and educational centre. Well that's just lovely, they can't move, (Mac, Mohawk, St' Joe's, HHSC) can't move to Texas or Arizona or Mexico, and they don't pay taxes and have every local politician in their pocket (with the exception of Bratina) for the last 25 years. Oh yeah I drove by the so-called Innovation Centre on Longwood, and it looks worse than when Camco was there, nothing has been built... that was promised... nothing but the old Camco Head Office building, and a Federal Building, built by Ottawa for steel materials development, moved from Ottawa, nothing else, it's a piece of shit wasteland with pathetic signs asking for leases, "Will build to suit"> Mac you piece of shit (my almost alma matter) begging for developers on your shit land. Hamilton was better off when Stelco, Dofasco, Camco, National Steel Car, Union Drawn Steel, Samuel Steel, Proctor and Gamble, Westinghouse/GE/Siemans, Firestone, HI Case, Air Liguide, Columbian Chemicals, and the Mafia, were the biggest employers in town.

True, although growth in Flamborough/Waterdown would be counted as in Hamilton and the Hamilton CMA was where I was going.

With regards to the lower city losing population, how true is that over the last couple of years? Haven't vacancy rates in those wards come down significantly?

I do agree on the Innovation Park being a disappointment, although knowing Mac I'm not surprised. The Innovation Factory is in theory a good idea, but the practicality of hiring a bunch of people that aren't engineers and having them advice on startups is a recipe for failure. Plus if I recall early on they were only interested in companies that could patent stuff, which I thought was a little weird. Although considering who they hired that was not surprising.

The other problem for the Innovation Park is that smaller companies are likely to eschew paying their high rents and go somewhere downtown like Weever did. Basically walking the halls there is Fluid Media for private sector and then a horde of space that has the tenants have some public sector connection.

Ha, you mentioned IF. I presented to Keanin a thorough marketing plan and creative direction, which I was asked "Can I afford you?". Of course I want in on this program... whatever you can budget. To which I didn't get the job, a firm in Waterloo got the contract... so much for a publicly funded corporation hired to promote LOCAL business.

We’ll know better once the 2016 Census drops.

Historic trendlines: Ward 2's population increased by 161 between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses while Wards 1, 3, 4 & 5 net population dropped by 2,280 in that same time.

Between 2001 and 2006, Ward 1-5 population dropped by 4,533 (2.4%). Between 2006 and 2011, it dropped by 2,159 (1.2%).

CMHC Rental Market Report, Fall 2015, Figure 4:

Central
2014: 3.6%
2015: 5.0%

East End
2014: 1.1%
2015: 4.2%

West End
2014: 3.0%
2015: 4.1%

Downtown Core
2014: 3.0%
2015: 4.1%

I have to say I find those vacancy numbers between 2014 and 2015 a bit strange. Although to be fair I recently got a postcard in the mail at my apartment building advertising units at the Villa Marie complex for $695 for a one bedroom and $795 for a two bedroom plus the first month of rent was free. So maybe things have softened over one year.

No comment.

The numbers will also be impacted by the relative demand for certain kinds of units, since supply (and quality) varies by area.

Calculated from Table 1.1.3 in the Fall 2015 CMHC Rental Market Report, here's the percentage of private apartment units by zone and bedroom type:

West End
Bach: 3.6%
1 BR: 46.8%
2 BR: 42.0%
3+ BR: 7.6%

Central
Bach: 7.3%
1 BR: 44.6%
2 BR: 38.8%
3+ BR: 9.4%

Downtown Core
Bach: 7.7%
1 BR: 55.7%
2 BR: 35.9%
3+ BR: 1.7%

Central East
Bach: 5.9%
1 BR: 50.3%
2 BR: 39.1%
3+ BR: 4.7%

Mountain
Bach: 2.9%
1 BR: 42.2%
2 BR: 49.3%
3+ BR: 5.6%

Hamilton City [Wards 1-8]
Bach: 5.0%
1 BR: 47.1%
2 BR: 43.1%
3+ BR: 4.8%

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilt...ions-1.3629855

Hamilton will grow to 633,000 residents over the next 10 years, and a new report recommends how to realign its ward boundaries to accommodate that.

The new report from Watson and Associates Economists Ltd. says Hamilton will grow by 12 per cent – or 68,000 people – by 2026. Right now, it has 565,270.

The largest growth will be in Glanbrook, most of which is in Ward 11. In 2015, the report says, Glanbrook had 43,690 people. By 2026, it will have 78,850.

The report also predicts significant population growth in Waterdown, the downtown core, Ancaster-upper west Mountain, Fruitland-Winona, Binbrook and the east Mountain-Elfrida.

Wards by current population (2015 figures) with 2026 projections in brackets

Ward 1: 41,340 (43,900)
Ward 2: 40,635 (45,225)
Ward 3: 40,365 (40,125)
Ward 4: 36,040 (35,325)
Ward 5: 39,835 (40,625)
Ward 6: 41,025 (38,850)
Ward 7: 62,435 (63,000)
Ward 8: 53,875 (55,100)
Ward 9: 29,980 (41,700)
Ward 10: 25,130 (24,825)
Ward 11: 43,690 (78,850)
Ward 12: 39,510 (45,075)
Ward 13: 25,310 (24,350)
Ward 14: 16,640 (16,075)
Ward 15: 29,460 (39,850)

Watson & Associates (June 2016):

4.2 Forecast Population Growth, 2015-2026

In order to evaluate the existing ward structure and subsequent alternatives in terms of representation by population over the next three municipal elections (i.e. 2018, 2022 and 2026), a detailed population forecast was developed for the City and its communities and neighbourhoods.

Population growth over the 2015-2026 period was identified on a neighbourhood level guided by the City of Hamilton’s Growth Related Integrated Development Strategy (GRIDS), a review of opportunities to accommodate future residential growth and discussions with City planning staff.

The City is expected to experience moderately strong population growth and shifts over the next decade. By 2026, Hamilton’s population is expected to reach approximately 633,000,1 an increase of 12% (68,000 people). The highest population growth is anticipated in Glanbrook with an increase of 82%, followed by Stoney Creek (33%), Flamborough (23%) and Ancaster (13%), as illustrated in Figure 3. In comparison, Lower Hamilton and Upper Hamilton are expected to have more moderate growth of 3% and 0%, respectively. Over the forecast period, the population of Dundas is expected to decline by 3%."

GRIDS (May 2006):

1.4 Growth Forecasts for Hamilton

In 2005, the Province released growth forecasts for the Greater Golden Horseshoe and one of these forecasts has been incorporated into the draft Places to Grow Plan. Population, household and employment forecasts represent the cornerstones for the GRIDS planning process.…

1.5 Our Neighbourhoods and Communities are Changing

Using the forecasts in the Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Hemson Consulting provided the City with a series of more detailed population values for Hamilton. The City’s Long Range Planning Diversion updated these detailed forecasts for its small areas (i.e. Dundas, Flamborough, Lower Stoney Creek, Upper Stoney Creek, Ancaster, Glanbrook, Lower Hamilton and Upper Hamilton) based on existing and planned development trends to develop a base case scenario for growth. The results of this exercise show the population of Hamilton (both rural and urban areas) increasing by approximately 68,843 people from 500,217 in 2001 to 569,061 in 2031. If traditional growth patterns continue, this growth will not be uniformly distributed across the City of Hamilton but rather will be concentrated primarily in Flamborough (i.e. Waterdown), Glanbrook (i.e. Binbrook), and Upper Hamilton.

Going further back down the rabbit hole, here's The Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Jan 2005), the broad-brush version of Hemson Consulting’s "more detailed population values" cohort that shaped GRIDS.

Hemson’s forecast also seems to have been one of the earliest appearances of the GTHA formulation (here called the GTAH, or Greater Toronto Area-Hamilton).

Interesting. Ward 2 way up, but wards 3 and 4 very slight decreases. Better than decreases they used to see I guess. I could see 3 and 4 actually seeing some slight increases as increasing property prices bring back some derelict supply.

The 2015 estimates are indeed interesting. Will be curious to see how they stack up against 2016 Census data. The consultants’ current numbers suggest not just a halt to 40 years’ of erosion in Wards 1-5 but dramatic gains: 2015 population estimate for Lower Hamilton (roughly 10% higher than its 2011 standing) would be a 35-year high.

1956: 200,037
1961: 198,689
1966: 203,627
1971: 207,572
1976: 202,045
1981: 194,537
1986: 189,924
1991: 187,181
1996: 185,118
2001: 186,938
2006: 182,405
2011: 180,246

Here are the ward populations at time of 2011 Census and, in parentheses, Watson & Associates’ 2015 ward population estimates.

Ward 01: 29,496 (41,340)
Ward 02: 37,941 (40,635)
Ward 03: 39,090 (40,365)
Ward 04: 34,978 (36,040)
Ward 05: 38,741 (39,835)
Ward 06: 40,293 (41,025)
Ward 07: 60,281 (62,435)
Ward 08: 49,661 (53,875)
Ward 09: 27,171 (29,980)
Ward 10: 24,278 (25,130)
Ward 11: 36,109 (43,690)
Ward 12: 34,825 (39,510)
Ward 13: 24,907 (25,310)
Ward 14: 16,897 (16,640)
Ward 15: 25,281 (29,460)

Wards 01-05: 180,248 (198,215) = 10.0% growth
Wards 06-08: 150,235 (157,335) = 4.7% growth
Wards 09-15: 189,468 (209,720) = 10.7% growth

The Jan 2005 Hemson data that shaped GRIDS forecast Hamilton going from a 2001 population of approximately 510,000 to a 2031 population of 660,000. That was reined in with June 2013, when Hemson revised its forecasts for Hamilton’s population growth. Here are Hemson’s 2013 projections, along with Ministry of Finance Population Projections and corresponding census findings from StatsCan (in parentheses):

2001: 510,000 / 510,100 (490,260)
2006: 524,000 / 523,800 (504,559)
2011: 540,000 / 540,200 (519,949)
2016: 568,000 / 560,100
2021: 601,000 / 580,100
2026: 640,000 / 602,800
2031: 683,000 / 626,800
2036: 732,000 / 651,100

Two additional items of note: Watson & Associates’ 2015 estimates and 2026 projections include permanent and post-secondary student population and a Census undercount of approximately 3.8%.

Regarding the former: “The study also considers the City’s post-secondary student population which includes students attending McMaster University, Mohawk College, Redeemer University College and Brock University’s Hamilton Campus. A large share of the City’s postsecondary students is not considered to consist of permanent residents; it is not captured in Statistics Census population data and not typically reflected in conventional population reporting. For the purposes of assessing representation by population, the population data utilized in this study reflects both the City’s permanent and nonpermanent post-secondary student population.”

Regarding the latter, StatsCan figures have Hamilton lagging provincial population projections by around 20,000 individuals, or approximately 3.8%. StatsCan's estimated census net undercoverage for Ontario at the time of the 2001 & 2006 censuses was 3.81%; under the 2011 Census, Ontario’s CNU had fallen to 2.91%. Watson's estimates are based on 2005-era data and so reflect greater wobble.

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Since they're an integral part of the Ward Boundaries Review Interim Report, here are more GRIDS Projections (2006-2031):

Lower Hamilton (Wards 1-5)
Upper Hamilton (Wards 6-8)
Stoney Creek (Wards 9-10)
Glanbrook (Ward 11)
Ancaster (Ward 12)
Dundas (Ward 13)
Flamborough (Wards 14-15)

Via City of Hamilton, Census Population for the City of Hamilton by Ward, 2016 (vs 2011):

Ward 01: 29,765 (+270)
Ward 02: 37,155 (-785)
Ward 03: 37,735 (-1,355)
Ward 04: 35,000 (+20)
Ward 05: 37,160 (-1,580)
Ward 06: 40,290 (-5)
Ward 07: 60,770 (+490)
Ward 08: 52,220 (+2,560)
Ward 09: 30,015 (+2,845)
Ward 10: 24,140 (-140)
Ward 11: 45,180 (+9,070)
Ward 12: 38,745 (+3,920)
Ward 13: 24,285 (-625)
Ward 14: 15,995 (-905)
Ward 15: 28,475 (+3,195)


Between 2011 and 2016:
• Ward 1-5 population decreased by 3,430 (-1.9%)
• Ward 6-8 population increased by 3,045 (+2.0%)
• Ward 9-15 population increased by 17,360 (+9.2%)

Between 2001 and 2016:
• Ward 1-5 population decreased by 10,123 (-5.4%)
• Ward 6-8 population increased by 9,909 (+6.9%)
• Ward 9-15 population increased by 47,705 (+30.0%)