Hamilton Votes 2008
 

So the Federal Election is around the corner (Oct 14th), and we still don't have a local thread.

Here are the ridings and their Candidates:

Ancaster - Dundas - Flamborough - Westdale

David Sweet[i] CON
Arlene MacFarlane-VanderBeek LIB
Gordon Guyatt NDP
Peter Ormond GRN

Hamilton Centre

Leon O'Connor CON
Helen Wilson LIB
David Christopherson [i] NDP
John Livingstone GRN


Hamilton East - Stoney Creek

Frank Rukavina CON
Larry Di Ianni LIB
Wayne Marston [i] NDP
*no Green candidate listed

Hamilton Mountain

Terry Anderson CON
Tyler Banham LIB
Chris Charlton [i] NDP
Stephen Brotherston GRN

Niagara West - Glanbrook

Dean Allison [i] CON
Heather Carter LIB
David Heatley NDP
Sid Frere GRN


How do YOU plan on voting?

I have nothing to hide.
I'm a Liberal by nature, but can't be bothered with Dion and his lack of anything. So luckily for me I have a proven politician in David Christopherson representing my riding and I'm more than happy to give him my vote in order keep him there!

I will do (almost) ANYTHING to ensure DiIanni doesn't win Hamilton East-SC.

Victoria Young dropped out so currently there's no Liberal for Hamilton Centre.

I think Larry Di Ianni will win. The Liberal machine will work overdrive to get a Liberal victory in Hamilton and Larry is the best chance.

I don't/won't hide my politics either. I've been a politically active Conservative since I was 15 years old--elections are incredibly energetic and exciting times for me--if nothing else it should serve as a reminder of how fortunate we are to have the opportunity to chose the direction our country will take going forward.

Since I am ex-patriate to the area, I will be using this Forum as well as other sources to follow the local races...I look forward to everyone's input.

Here are some initial thoughts...

Dion is--and this is me being as unbiased as possible--in a precarious position. This election call was more than likely the result of very positive internal polling by the Conservatives--and the initial polling seems to be bearing that out. Dion has been framed in a certain light by the Conservatives over the past several months and seems to have done precious little to counter it. I expect the Liberals to try to do something/anything in the next week or so, or they are going to spend the entire campaign on the defenisve--not a good place to be when you're in Opposition.

Locally for you folks, I wouldn't expect significant (if any changes). DiIanni has potential in HE-SC, but without a bounce from a strong federal campaign, he's going to be in tough against the incumbent. HM is also very changable in it's voting patterns and is one to watch. Nonetheless, I would be surprised to see the NDP lose significant support over '06 unless the Greens come on particularly strongly--something that seems unlikely in Ontario.

The Greens are an interesting phenomenon (I use that word lightly). I think their leader has come off horribly in this flap over the debates. They (the Greens) have alone decided they are important enough to be included--apparently on the basis that they have a patch-over candidate and ignoring the fact that they have a backroom deal with the Liberals not to oppose each other in certain ridings. I'd be interested to know what others are thinking on the Green issue...3 of the parties opposed her being present but so far only Harper has actually come out and said he was one of them.

I also fear DiIanni will win Ham E-SC :(
He has a huge name there (even though it's tainted with corruption) as he was/is a big part of the Stoney Creek community.
Plus Marston only won by like 800 votes last time.

Young dropped out of Ham Ctr? When did that happen? So it's NDP vs Green? Seems like no one wants to battle David!

My Predictions:
ADFW: Sweet CON
Ham CTR: Christopherson LIB (by thousands of votes)
HamE-SC: DiIanni LIB, close race
Ham Mount: Charlton NDP (by a lot)
NW-Glan: Who cares. Ugh... redistribute our ridings, please!!! But probably Conservative again as there is a HUGE Christian base in the Lincoln Township area.

There is no clear opportunity for a conservative majority. Polls done within days of a call are rarely indicitaive of the eventual outcome. In fact they have been completely contrary to the final outcome.

Harper has called the election because the clock was running out on him. Too many scandals were surfacing, the Canadaian economy is in decline, and an imminent 2008/09 budget deficit forced him to jump into this election now.

And the first few days have been rocky for the Conservative campaign, what with early morning 'war room' press conferences being unattended by major media, and ill-thought-out online 'bird poo' ads making the first week look like amateur hour. And, as far as the Green debate fiasco goes, the Harper optics are very poor - in a democratic election, would a real leader boycott a debate? I think you'll find most Canadians have no objection to her participation in the debate, and I predict the decision to exclude her will be revesed in the days to come.

The real test will be if the attack ads the Consevatives have been airing against Dion the past year stick in the voters' minds through the entire campaign. The Liberals are countering these ads heavily this week, and Dion is coming out stronger than expected thus far.

In addition, Layton is focusing his attacks solely on Harper and is ignoring the Liberals. This will ultimately work in favour of the Liberals, much as Layton's focussed attack on Martin benefitted the Conservatives last time round. And the Conservatives don't have Zacchareli to lob a grenade into the middle of this year's campaign either.

My local predictions for the election:

Ancaster - Dundas - Flamborough - Westdale
Gordon Guyatt NDP

Hamilton Centre
David Christopherson NDP

Hamilton East - Stoney Creek
Larry Di Ianni Liberal

Hamilton Mountain
Tyler Banham Liberal

Niagara West - Glanbrook
Dean Allison Conservative

And, in the end of it, we will have yet another minority government. What a waste of $400 million!

Di Ianni lost by 400 votes from Fred and Marston won by 400 against Valeri. So it should be interesting. Though a big part of the Hamilton East-Stoney Creek riding is the Stoney Creek side so Larry should do well. It’ll be a classic Hamilton East traditional union steel worker Marston verus Stoney Creek’s favourite son.

I wouldn't bet on Charlton. Tyler Banham was the former president of the youth wing of the Liberal Party so he has a lot of Liberal party backers. So I'm betting it'll be much closer.

The Liberals are searching for a replacement for Hamilton Centre. So they'll be a replacement.

Full disclosure: I'm not affiliated with any party, but my politics tend to be centre-left: economically progressive and socially libertarian. I generally vote NDP since I live in Hamilton Centre and Christopherson is a strong candidate.

Also, my experience is that a Liberal minority with an NDP opposition to keep them honest is the best kind of federal government.

That's possible, but I think it's more likely that they're actually seeking a renewed mandate while the stars are still aligned in their favour:

* The economy is holding but widely expected to slide into recession (watch rising unemployment and falling house prices, while our biggest trading partner continues to tank).

* So far they've managed to stonewall the ethics committee's investigation of their alleged fundraising violations, but they can't hold off forever.

* The three by-elections scheduled for later this month seemed likely to unseat the incumbent party.

Also, while Harper's personal approval is the highest of the major parties (around 50%), his party's approval is statistically the same as it was in January 2006. That is, after two and a half years, he hasn't managed to convince Canadians to give him a majority.

He might be able to pull it off via the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system, but it's a long shot. It seems more likely that he's hoping to produce at least a new minority before the s**t hits the fan.

Here's why: as you say, Dion is very precarious. If he fails to improve his party's fortunes in this election, there's a very good chance the party will turf him and start looking for another leader. That essentially buys Harper another couple of years at the helm even if he only wins another minority, since the Liberals will once again be in no position to challenge him.

This situation only takes place if Dion loses an election. If Harper did nothing and let the opposition vote non-confidence some time next year or let his Parliament make it to his fixed election date, that election would likely be Dion's to lose.

It's a bold gamble, and though I don't like Harper's leadership style, I do admire how deftly he has managed parliament while he's been in power. It remains to be seen whether the other parties can hammer him enough in the next month to ratchet down his approval.

Stranger things have happened - don't forget David Peterson's disastrous snap election in 1990, which incredibly put Bob Rae's NDP in power for the next five years.

I am also in David Christopherson's riding, and I must say I am not at all impressed by his representation thus far.

I think Larry will win Hamilton East. I base this prediction partly on the fact that at 11am the past Sunday, a little over an hour after the election announcement I saw his crews putting up election signs. He wants this riding and he wants it bad!

I'm in Hamilton Centre riding as well. David will obviously win this riding until he quits.

I kinda miss the old Hamilton West riding. They should have Hamilton Centre as seperate perhaps merge it with Westdale. This might happen as Ontario is suppose to get an additional 17 ridings in the next election.

One of the reason why Harper likely called an early election is extactly that, 17 additional ridings in Ontario isn't good news for Harper.

And personally I have no use for Hollywood Larry.

Opps 10 additional ridings in Ontario, 7 additional ridings in BC and 4 additional ridings in Alberta I believe. Or something like that.

The ridings have not yet changed. We are still working with 308 electoral districts.

Amen, brother! Even a Liberal minority Gov't with a small Conservative opposition and NDP balance of power would be good!

Either way, Minority Gov'ts are the closing thing we have to Proportional Representation, so here's hoping for another one with a FOR REAL 4 year set term!

Interesting prediction for Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale. Having spent my formitve years (politics included) in that riding, it would seem a prediction of an NDP victory there is downright delusional.

Again, my comments regarding the timing of the election were in regard to internal pre-campaign polling, not the polls which have been publically released since.

I'll be skipping the vote this time.
I almost skipped last time, but this one takes the cake. Having an election just so one big money party machine can try to waste some of the other big money party machine's money is disgusting.

They all suck.

Great point! I had forgotten that. Does this election push that increase out to 2012?

^ Yes

The riding has changed a lot since you were a kid. Most notably, in the part that makes up the last part of its very long name. And Ancaster is not what it used to be. The Opus-Dei 'outing' today will also have a chilling effect on ex-Promise Keeper Sweet's campaign.

With the local Liberal association in relative disarray, look for Guyatt to make significant gains in this riding. I am going out on a limb and saying it'll be enough to pu thim over the heap. Canada is, after all, the home of the first-past-the-post system.

The wild card is the Greens and how much tread they can get during the campaign. Although support for the Greens does bleed from both sides of the spectrum, thus the real reason why both Harper and Layton balked at May's inclusion in the debate.

In the poll I saw, 77% of Canadians supporter her inclusion.

His liar, liar statement yesterday was a surprising - and welcome - sign of a newfound scrappiness.

My hunch is that the Conservatives' over-the-top attacks on Dion's Green Shift will backfire. Harper simply has no credibility whatsoever on climate change and energy issues after two and a half years of inaction, and people are really conscious of these issues after the run-up in gas prices.

Extraordinarily unlikely. Ancaster and Flamborough tend Conservative while Dundas tends Liberal and Westdale tends NDP. I think Sweet will hold his seat.

Voters generally don't like snap elections. This in itself could fuel a backlash.

Thus increasing the chances for the 4 candidates you like the least.

Dr. Guyatt used to be my family doctor on King St. Dr. Guyatt is the father of the Guyatt running for NDP.

On the subject of polls, while they really generally must be taken with a grain of salt, those conducted by Nanos (formerly SES) have been been a disturbingly accurate reflection of the actual outcome of the elections.

Their final poll prior to the last Federal election had the Conservatives at 36.4%, the Liberals at 30.1%, the NDP at 17.4%, the Bloc at 10.6%, and the Greens at 5.6%. Election day results were Conservatives at 36.3%, the Liberals at 30.2%, the NDP at 17.5%, the Bloc at 10.5%, and the Greens at 5.5%.

Nanos' most recent poll was conducted August 20-27, and showed the Liberals at 35%, Conservatives at 33%, NDP at 17%, the Bloc at 8%, and Greens at 7%.

Really? IMO that certainly discounts your credibility in future political discussions.None of the above is not a credible position in a democracy.

You not voting, that'll show them!!!

If you don't like it then might I suggest you vote Green, I'm sure they'll appreciate the vote and they are a little more grass roots than the other parties. Heck, we live in Hamilton and there have been how many 'emissions' from the steel plants this summer. That alone should make a vote for the Green's worthwhile.

Me personally, I was right of centre for much of my life. As I've aged, I've moved centre and then left of centre in my views, even if my voting patterns didn't reflect that change from right of centre. This year is going to be different.

I heard Elizabeth May on CBC's The House on the Labour Day weekend. I have to say I was impressed with her, her policies and her opinions. She made a big enough impression and enough sense to me that she won my vote.

In the last elections I was totally against another party (Green) in the debates, this year I'm 180 from that position.

For the record the reason 3 parties were against the Green's being in the debate was because the Conservatives were going to take their ball and go home (that's exactly what they were going to do). And those parties wanted a shot at the Conservatives more than they wanted the Greens in the debate.

I sure hope you're right, Mark. I agree that Sweet is vulnerable. He got in largely on the anti-Liberal backlash last time so his support is shallow, and his performance has been decidedly underwhelming. This is my riding so I'll be voting strategically this time out. I'll be supporting whoever I think has the best chance against Sweet. I bet on Guyatt last time out, but the Liberal (Russ Powers?) actually got more votes, so now I'm not sure which way to go.

yea, you're right. Because I choose to not participate in a huge waste of taxpayers dollars by some of the most greedy, corrupt corporations on the planet eliminates my opinion on political issues?? Wow....they really got you to suck back the koolaid.

This called election sure opened a can of worms eh.

Today Harper made an election promise to cut the gas tax. C'MON! Cities all over Canada are begging for more infrastructure funding and you'd think he could have instead promising to transfer the gas tax to cities instead of cutting it.

This is exactly why I don't vote for the Conservatives.

I'll be voting Conservative. I techincally live in Hamilton Mountain, but I'll be casting my vote in my hometown riding, as that riding should shape up to be more of a battle. (London - West)

CUT the gas tax??? Wow. shows how out of touch with reality these clowns really are.
I can't believe that. There must be more to the story. He NEEDS urban votes desperately.

It's a cut to the excise tax on diesel. Designed to woo transport truck drivers and farmers. Set up to counter Dion's promise of a carbon tax rebate to the same group of voters.

Other significant items from today's campaign: Dion pledges to restore the court challenges program axed by the Tories in 2006, and pledges to ban semi-automatic weapons. Layton pledges to, er, not debate Elizabeth May. On her part, May launches legal action against the network consortium's decision to bar her from leaders debates (you go girl!). Duceppe exposes a Quebec Tory candidate as a member of the ultra-right wing religious sect of Opus Dei.

Oh yeah, and Harper has to apologize for his campaign's childish antic of having the website adorned with an animated puffin pooping on Dion.

Sounds like you care. Maybe you should vote.

Gas price could jump 5% in a week and no one will have noticed the 2% cut on gas tax. It's a stupid plan.

^^ some said that about the GST reduction, and it still won people over.

Generally, there are voters who are stupid and will vote with whoever is going to save THEM the most money. If it's $0.02 on a bag of chips, sure! If it's $0.53 on a tank of gas the "HELL YA I'm votin for the guy that's going to save me $50 over the matter of 12 months!"

Our job, as educated individuals, is to bring light to these useless promises and expose them for what they are:
-decrease in GST saves you almost no money, and lowers the GST rebate cheque amount for those who need it most
-decrease in a fuel tax that goes (almost) directly back to the Cities that run Canada!
-Harper, an american-styled social conservative who only smiles b/c his team of publicists tell him to.

I don't see how Westerners can see right thru this guy? His eyes scream 'Hidden Agenda'... or maybe it's the hand-wringing & lip-licking? I dunno he's just creepy.

Again, I clarify: It is a reduction in the excise tax on diesel fuel only. Not gas. It will effect precious few people. But it sure sounds good.

Yes--the mania/hysteria here about this gas tax cut (which is only on diesel) shows exactly how willing everyone is to be right. Perhaps it's Dion that's the one that's out-of-touch with the destruction his ill-timed Green Shift will bring to the economy and to middle-class Canadians.

As for A-D-F-W, it actually hasn't changed all that much. It has been a traditional Conservative stronghold for decades that went Liberal only in the "red wave" elections of the 1990s. The additional of Westdale has changed the dynamic somewhat--but no more so than past inclusions of parts of Aldershot and Hamilton Mountain did.

What does it say about our country when it is noteworthy that a candidate has been "exposed" as a Christian...

You should read the actual Liberal Green Shift plan. Contrary to Jason Kenny's mantra, this is not a new tax in the sense that it is an additional tax. It is a complete redesign of the tax system so it is no longer based on income but on consumption. IMO a consumption tax is a fairer system of taxation.

Fastcarsfreedom, you and I both know that membership to Opus Dei is not significant simply because it is a Christian religion.

As far as ADFW goes, we'll have to watch this riding on October 14. I'll be prepared to eat crow if Sweet returns, but I think I'll be having a steak dinner that night...

Wow. To be honest I was completely ignorant on the whole Green Shift plan, but just finished reading up about it and am pretty impressed.

What has Harper and his conservatives done for the Environment over the last 2.5 years?

Dion is right, this [Green Shift policy] is not an easy choice -- it's the right choice!

Anyone check out Bills C-51 and C-52? Here's an interesting fact, for the past 10 years there have been at least 8 cases each year of listeria in Alberta alone, and yet little to no media coverage... something doesn't add up for me. I guess a majority gov't would allow Harper to make more drastic changes. He's all for the gradual merging of Canada and the US as well. I suppose some people want that?

well, of course I care. Why would you think I don't??
I care enough to not vote for any of these lying losers.

So you're saying that it is better for the GST money to be doled out as Mandarins (no doubt educated individuals) in Ottawa see fit, rather than allowing taxpayers to make market decisions with it. Considering the governments we've had over the past decades and the value for the money we've gotten, I'd rather keep the money in the hands of the taxpayers than the social engineers.

So your issue is money being wasted because of a preemtive election call, right? It's one guy that did that, not the whole system as you insinuate.

If you think this is a waste of money, consider the whole US system. They only do it every 4 years but the whole thing drags out so god damn long, it's hardly over before it starts again. Hell, they've been at this thing for like a year, and here we just made the call and will be through with it next month while they keep dragging it out.

Not voting is not an effective means of protest in this system. You can't 'choose not to participate'. By being born here and automatically being a citizen, you participate. The only choices are participating badly or participating well.

at this stage in the game, I don't see any other choice other than participating badly.
And no, my only issue isn't the nonsensical reason for the election call. I can't stand political parties. Politics used to be about ideas, people, citizens and the nation.
Now it's all about these private parties and their millions of dollars and corruption and greed etc.....
The US system is a joke. I would never want that here.

All the more reason to vote for a party that's not out of touch.

If you're sick of the Conservatives, hate the Liberals and don't trust the NDP, then vote Green. If nothing else, your vote guarantees the Green party $1.75 a year in party funding so they can continue to develop their platform and mount a challenge to the status quo.

They couldn't get anything done because they were too busy blaming the Liberals for not getting anything done when they were in power.

In fairness, they did pass a climate change plan ... that actually allows the energy industry to increase its greenhouse gas emissions.

No wonder they're attacking the Green Shift so hard - their own environmental track record is one of their biggest weaknesses and they know it.

I'm not sure why it's that significant. Opus Dei is a conservative Catholic ministry that encourages its lay members to do "the work of God" (Opus Dei in English) in their communities - to "find God in daily life" - as opposed to inside a monastery or the Church bureaucracy.

It's decidedly not the nefarious, shadowy cabal depicted in Dan Brown's lumpen "Da Vinci Code".

The organization emphasizes daily service and "mortification", which can range from steadfast dedication to important but unpleasant tasks to small sacrifices of pleasure, abstaining from luxuries, fasting, celibacy, and for some, suffering physical discomfort or even pain.

That may sound bizarre to some, but it's straightforward Catholic doctrine, as reflected in Lenten fasting, abstaining from meat on Fridays, and so on. Christianity in general emphasizes sacrifice and suffering (e.g. the Beatitudes).

Since we already knew Sweet is a conservative Christian, it's hardly a revelation to discover that he's a member of a conservative Christian organization.

I'm sure the green party isn't rolling in dough, so vote for them. Like I said, your non vote equals some fraction of a vote for every candidate except the one that you would have voted for.

something will have to become a BIG issue to get me to vote....there's a first time for everything and this will be my first time not voting.
I'm certain it won't be the last.

if you don't vote, then you have no business giving your say on issues at the municipal or federal level.

lol, that will never happen.

I agree, I've always been of the opinion if you don't vote you can't complain. I missed a provincial election when I was out of the country on a last minute business trip after the advance polls had finished.

My wife reminded me for 4 years every time I started to complain, that I didn't have the right........ and yes, we are still together.