They canceled the project last time because it was a started and funded under the provincial liberals. This time its 100% their own project (so they can't use the same rationale of botched liberal numbers) AND the federal government is on board with secured funding, which means they'd face HUGE penalties for canceling. I'm not saying it would be uncharacteristic of them to try and cancel it again but I am saying it would be far harder since theres a lot more legal agreements and partners in play this time. From a political standpoint they'd have absolutely nothing to gain from canceling it and a whole lot to lose.

Exactly what penalties would the feds impose. They can refuse funding it's as simple as that. Contracts between levels of government really means nothing. New governments cancel programs that are funded by both levels of government all the time. They haven't signed anything with a contractor yet so they wouldn't be liable for any penalties. The position of the city is irrelevant they aren't even recognized constitutionally.

There would be contracts signed before the next provincial or federal election.

You would think that might happen. Don't count on it.

Either level of government could pull funding any time. They've shown time and again that financial penalties are not a deterrent. And a project being under construction or in implementation means little either -- recall that the Eglinton West subway project was cancelled by the Harris government, and they had already started digging; the provincial Liberals put a stop to planning major transportation corridors deep into the process; the Cap and Trade agreement was thrown out the window by the current government; military procurements have been torn up by the feds; etc., etc., etc.,...)

I think the political cost would be a lot bigger though. And this is now a PC project, despite half the money coming from the federal Liberals, so there's no reason to stop it because a previous provincial government comprised of a different party got the ball rolling.

If all the dithering hadn't delayed this we'd be talking about expansion not first steps. But with a big project like this, dithering always seems to be part of the routine.

Thats kinda why I said the bottom line is that they have nothing to gain by canceling it now. If there was, they would have never revived the project to begin with. Its a hell of a lot easier to cancel a funded project that a previous, opposing government started than it is to backtrack on your own (basically admitting that your own government screwed up). Kinda political suicide.

The thing is they wouldn't lose anything by cancelling it either. The provincial Conservatives don't like Hamilton, it is a political wasteland for them outside of one riding that they could possibly lose it next election. Until the LRT is significantly under way and by that I mean roads ripped up and concrete being poured don't count on it getting built.

I don't see it getting cancelled at this point. Perhaps it's not a non-zero chance, but I just don't see it happening.

How about looking at what they have to gain?

Like credibility. Saving face. Showing they can follow through on more than cancellations of prior governments' commitments, announcing greenfield highways, enacting MZOs that run counter to local decisions/opinion, etc..

As the pandemic lingers, so does the lack of confidence in this government. One can argue few governments have really done well, or even had much they could do to handle the virus and its impacts to make enough of a difference, but that's not how many people see it.

Though the PCs may not care about the local seats they have little chance of winning (though as Hamilton's demographics change, the chances of it being home to swing ridings rises). What they should be caring about is the perception people have about them, and it's not good... in Hamilton, nor in many places in the province.

Canada’s parliamentary budget officer will not probe Hamilton LRT funding

An analysis of federal infrastructure spending by Canada’s parliamentary budget officer will not include a specific review of Hamilton’s LRT requested by former MP Bob Bratina.

Bratina announced last May he would not seek re-election as a Liberal because of his government’s decision to put up $1.7 billion to help resurrect a cancelled light-rail transit line in Hamilton. The former mayor, a longtime LRT opponent, characterized the 14-kilometre line as a “pet project” of then-infrastructure minister Catherine McKenna and not in the best interest of the city.

Bratina asked parliamentary budget officer Yves Giroux to review the appropriateness of the LRT funding, including whether it meets the criteria of the federal Investing in Canada Plan.

An analysis of federal infrastructure spending is underway and should be done in February — but it “will not include numbers attached to specific projects such as Hamilton’s LRT,” said PBO director of parliamentary relations and planning Melissa Fraser-Arnott.

Fraser-Arnott said the PBO considered Bratina’s specific request to delve into the LRT budget, but “will not be proceeding with the analysis at this time” because of competing priorities. She said election-related costing studies took priority last summer, followed by other required reports and requests from parliamentary committees.

Bratina expressed hope more details about LRT funding would still come out.

Giroux did ask the federal infrastructure ministry in June for a detailed breakdown of committed and intended expenditures under the Investing in Canada plan, which includes $180 million in anticipated transit and transportation, green and social infrastructure spending over 12 years.

“All Canadians, including myself as a taxpayer and your employer as a news outlet, should want to be informed about how government spends its money,” said Bratina in an email to The Spectator.

The parliamentary budget officer can choose to review any federal budgetary issue at the request of a MP. Now that Bratina is no longer an elected official, it is not clear if his request will remain in the queue.

The province and federal government have jointly put up $3.4 billion to build the 14-kilometre light-rail line, a project previously cancelled by Ontario’s Progressive Conservative government in 2019 over projected budget overruns.

The city signed a memorandum of agreement in the fall to move ahead with the project, which would require Hamilton to cover operating costs for the transit line. Utility relocation along the Main-King corridor could begin in early 2022, but the timeline for major construction bidding remains unclear.

I'd like to see a detailed breakdown too. But not to disparage the project, as was Bobra's intent.

A little update today, courtesy of the Metrolinx newsletter:

What I'm curious about is what utilities they have to relocate? Last work they did before the cancelation two years ago was at the Queenston traffic circle, but that's been finished.

Aren't they putting all the electrical and telephone lines underground?

They may start moving utility poles. Moving those poles is easy and "cheap" ($13,000 per pole I believe) and can be done prior to construction because I assume they'd be moving them out of the way.

Things like electrical, bell, natural gas, etc.

A lot of them have to be done by the individual utilities that own the lines, not the contractor for the LRT, so Metrolinx gets them done in advance of the main contract.

They are suppose to be putting in the latest in fiber optics and provisions for future upgrades so they don't have to dig in the future.

I am sure the whole stretch of roadway over the last 150 years, especially downtown is a dogs breakfast of things buried and abandoned surprises.

The Bell Fibe cable actually got run to my house literally yesterday, so I'm aware of Bell's efforts to bring gigabit internet to Hamilton ;). Luckily Cogeco is already serving my house.. but competition is always good.

And yes, a big benefit of the LRT will be the City's ability to untangle the mess under King Street and run modern servicing infrastructure right through the lower city to better accommodate the coming intensification..

Toronto failed to properly plan for it and is facing huge issues right now as the additional stormwater coming from all the new condo buildings is overloading the storm sewers. Basically whenever a condo builds underground parking it has to pump the water that flows into the garage out into the storm sewers, and while the city requires stormwater holding tanks to ensure the water is pumped into the system during off peak periods, the sheer volume of new buildings is starting to overwhelm the system. Toronto is now forcing buildings to "bathtub" by making their garages waterproof so that they don't pump water into the stormwater system, but that is very, very expensive and has other effects like raising the water table on existing buildings, increasing the amount they have to pump out.. It's a gigantic mess. The solution is to build more storm sewers but that takes municipal initiative which Toronto doesn't have!

Hopefully Hamilton thinks ahead a bit and throws down some oversized storm sewers under King St, especially given that the additional cost is only the incremental cost over replacing the existing sewers which Metrolinx is paying for.. We'll see if that happens with this council or not.

This is probably the biggest benefit of the LRT that the critics seem to completely overlook. The province is volunteering to completely pay to modernize the infrastructure along the route.

In my opinion the LRT project is not even really about public transportation. It's about modernizing the infrastructure, knocking down derelict buildings and rezoning to allow for high rise intensification. A project that will ultimately lay the ground work for the economic development of the lower city. An area of the city that has been stagnant for so many decades.

LRT is essentially the province and fed saying "Hamilton someone needs to bail you out, please stop turning us down".

This will have a massive impact on the massive infrastructure deficit the city has bee accumulating, and will hopefully slow it to a crawl with a future dated reversal where 20 years of catch-up can begin.

I am so excited for LRT. It is the beginning of a new Hamilton and a Hamilton that is actually getting better with a reasonable snowball effect that can't be easily stopped and in a more sustainable fashion.

Hamilton has slowly been raising taxes to address the state of good repair, I believe it's at 0.5% a year, but it's not nearly enough. Still, it has a sort of 'snowball' effect which adds up over the years. Between 2020 and 2030 the city will basically double the amount of money it spends on road reconstructions.

The LRT has the bonus of paying for a lot (though not nearly enough) of those reconstructions itself by rebuilding 14km of the City's largest arterials as well as many other streets. the original LRT scope had reconstruction and resurfacing of many other streets downtown to accommodate traffic shifts from the LRT. IIRC Metrolinx was paying for York Boulevard to be rebuilt to be widened back out to 6 lanes to accommodate shifted traffic from the LRT, for example, but that was nixed with the cancellation. We'll have to see what happens with it now.